共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
海洋对CO2的吸收缓解了大气CO2浓度的持续上升,陆架海因其较高的初级生产而具有较强的固碳能力,在海洋碳循环中占据重要角色。然而由于陆架海过程时空变化剧烈,陆架海对人为CO2源/汇作用的动态格局还存在争议,陆架海碳循环的调控机制尚不清晰。IPCC AR4所采用的气候-碳循环耦合模型均未考虑陆架海碳循环,使其成为气候预测不确定性的主要来源之一。建立适宜的陆架海碳循环模型,可以探究陆架海不同区域CO2源/汇格局的长期变化,估算碳循环各关键过程的贡献,认识碳循环系统与生态系统的相互作用,评估陆架海碳循环在气候变化中的作用。基于陆架海碳循环模型研究现状,从物理过程、生物泵、碳化学系统等三个主要方面总结了陆架海碳循环模式在建模中应考虑的关键过程,提出了构建东中国陆架海碳循环模式的基本思路及拟解决的关键科学问题。 相似文献
2.
基于海洋环流模式POP和生物地球化学模型OCMIP-2,建立了全球海洋碳循环模式,并用于对全球海洋碳循环的模拟研究。该模式在大气CO2为283×10-6条件下,积分3 100 a,达到工业革命前的平衡态。在此基础上,用历史时期观测的大气CO2浓度进行强迫,模拟了历史时期的海洋碳循环。模拟的无机碳浓度、总碱度与基于观测得到的结果基本一致,模式能够较好地模拟全球碳循环过程。模拟结果表明,在北半球中高纬度和南半球的中纬度,海洋是大气CO2的主要汇区;在赤道南北纬20°之间和南大洋50°S以南,海洋表现为大气CO2的源区。在1980s海洋吸收CO2速率(以C计)为1.38 Pg/a,1990s为1.55 Pg/a。海洋中人为碳在北大西洋含量最大,向下到达海底并向南输运到30°N附近;在南极附近,浓度较小,深度达到3 000 m;在中纬度,人为碳被限制在温跃层以上。 相似文献
3.
海洋沉积物中碳的来源、迁移和转化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
人类活动每年向大气排放的CO2约为65亿t，其中留在大气中的约占50%，大洋吸收约16亿-20亿t，陆地生态系统大约吸收0.7亿~1.4亿t(Bates，2001；Battle et al.，2000),还有大约13亿t找不到去处，称为大气CO2丢失项，而陆架边缘海有可能是这丢失项的去处。近海沉积物是大气二氧化碳的接受者，同时当条件合适时沉积物中的碳又可被释放重新进入水体乃至大气中，是碳循环中的重要源与汇，因此海洋沉积物在碳循环中的作用是全球碳循环的一个关键环节。虽然近十年来这方面的研究已经引起众多学者的关注，对沉积物中的碳循环进行了较大量的研究，取得了一系列成果，但海洋沉积物在碳循环中的作用和过程至今并未查清，具体体现在海洋沉积物在海洋碳循环中起什么作用？起多大作用？在哪些方面影响和控制海洋碳循环？这些均需要科学家们长期的艰苦努力，以便在更深入、更系统和更高层次上研究解决困扰当今人类的涉及碳循环这一重大环境科学问题。
海洋沉积物为海洋环境中的一个主要研究对象，其中的碳与水体-生物体以及大气、入海河流等进行着不间断的交换、大气中的气体碳经过复杂的海洋生物地球化学过程转化为水体中的溶解碳，再变为颗粒碳，经沉降最终形成沉积物，在适宜的条件下上述的反过程同样会发生。因此，研究海洋沉积物中的碳在其循环中的作用是非常困难的。碳是最主要的生源要素，更是生命活动能流、物流中最重要的元素，几乎所有的生物地球化学循环过程都与它有关，因而有关碳循环的研究是目前全球变化研究的热点。许多国际研究计划均以此为核心研究内容。如国际地圈与生物圈计划(IGBP)中的全球海洋通量联合研究(JGOFS)、全球生态系统动力学(GLOBEC)以及上层海洋与低层大气研究计划(SOLAS)等(唐启升，2001；宋金明，2000)。碳循环研究以 JGOFS计划2001年基本结束为标志，通过近十几年的研究，取得了丰硕的成果，系统了解了海洋循环的过程及界面碳通量，对全球碳循环也有了一个初步的了解。为进一步深入开展这方面的研究作者从海洋沉积物中碳的形态与来源、海水及颗粒物中碳与沉积物碳的关系、表层沉积物再悬浮对碳循环的影响以及沉积物中碳的早期成岩作用等几个方面阐述了海洋沉积物中碳循环目前的研究进展。 相似文献
4.
因研究对象不同,目前的海洋环流模式常分为全球模式和海盆尺度(区域)模式,各个模式考虑的物理过程、参数化方法、数值解法和分辨率都不尽相同,因此不同模式的计算结果存在差异,尤其区域尺度上的差异更为明显,这就对发展区域性的海盆尺度环流模式提出了要求.海盆尺度模式可以使用更高的分辨率,考虑更精细的物理和生化过程,从而对区域的刻画更为准确和真实,而且,在碳循环的研究中,陆架边缘海碳循环是新的研究热点,这也需要进一步发展海盆尺度的碳循环模式.另外从计算方面来说,限于目前的计算条件,在未来很长时间内海盆尺度碳循环模式都将与全球模式同时存在并互为补充. 相似文献
5.
大西洋热盐环流年代际变化机制研究 Ⅰ.气候模式的建立和验证 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
大气环流与热盐环流(THC)变化之间的因果关系,是海气相互作用研究领域的一个悬而未决的问题。本文为研究大西洋热盐环流的年际和年代际变化机制以及北大西洋海气要素对热盐环流年代际振荡的响应过程,以德国Max-Planck气象研究所的最新大气海洋环流模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM)为基础,构建了重点针对北大西洋的海气耦合气候模式。利用此海气耦合气候模式,首先进行了CO2浓度固定在1860年前工业化以前水平-280 μl/m3(ppmv)的500 a的数值模拟控制试验,然后以1860-2000年间的实测和替代资料反演所得CO2浓度为强迫进行了气候回报试验。依照观测资料和再分析数据集对气候模式回报的基本环流结构、深层水形成过程以及热盐环流和水团的空间结构进行了系统验证和分析。结果表明该气候模式具有相当的气候变化模拟能力,为后续的相关研究奠定了基础。 相似文献
6.
海洋是地球碳的最重要贮存库之一,是全球碳循环系统的一个至关重要的子系统和大气CO2的汇.海洋碳循环过程不仅涉及海洋生物生产过程、化学能流与物流过程,还与不同时空尺度的海洋环流、大气动力学过程密切相关.大洋碳循环是海洋碳循环的主体.边缘海是陆地与大洋的连接带,虽然面积远比大洋小,但由于人类活动的影响以及河流径流不断向其输入丰富的营养物质,致使其中发生的生物地球化学过程比大洋复杂,所以,探明近海碳循环过程是全世界海洋学家必须要面对而且是与大洋碳循环相比更为难解、更具挑战性的研究课题[1, 2]. 相似文献
7.
海洋碳循环是全球变化研究中的重要领域,它不仅在很大程度上决定了全球气温乃至全球气候的变化趋势,而且还是海洋生态系持续发展的基础,它决定着了海洋生态环境变化的走向。众所周知，碳(C)在海洋中以无机态和有机态的形式存在,在海气系统中,大于98%的C以溶解无机碳(DIC)形式存在于水体中(Zeebe et al,2001)其对海洋碳循环的影响至关重要。
氮(N)和磷(P)等营养盐对维持海洋生态系的正常运转起着至关重要的作用。但是，由于近年来人类生产、生活污水的排放以及滩涂和沿岸水域养殖区的长期施肥,它们也作为近岸海区的主要污染物而导致近海海洋生态环境的日益恶化,影响并改变了一些海域的生态结构。如在胶州湾,由于营养盐浓度及结构发生了变化导致该湾地区浮游植物数量和优势种组成的变化(沈志良,2002)近年来,在海洋沿岸带的河口、海湾等水体较浅的透光层内,以孔石莼等绿藻为主要代表的大型海藻开始泛滥,形成大型海藻的水华。海洋生态环境的改变,必然将导致海洋碳循环的变化,从长时间尺度来看也会影响到全球的气候和气温变化。目前,对营养盐与水生藻类之间的响应关系研究已有大量的报道(王勇等,2002；刘媛等，2004；张文俊等，2004)但对于营养盐与海水无机碳体系之间的耦合作用报道甚少。在海洋环境中、C N P作为主要的生源要素,其变化相互影响,并与海水中所存有的海洋生物密切相关。探讨海水中C-N-P的相互耦合关系对于研究海洋生态环境演变过程及效应,阐明海洋碳循环过程的深层次机理,揭示在过量N P作用富营养化条件下,C的迁移转化行为有重要的科学意义和实际价值。本文作者初步研究了模拟条件下C-N-P的相互关系。 相似文献
8.
碳中和是应对气候变化的必由之路,海洋负排放是实现碳中和的重要途经。海洋作为地球最大碳库,研究发现越来越多的海洋和海岸带生物参与碳循环,并对海洋碳汇产生重要贡献。鱼类作为海洋生态系统中最重要组成部分之一,其在海洋碳循环中的作用还没有引起足够的重视。最新研究表明海洋鱼类在无机碳循环中发挥了重要作用,深化对鱼类参与碳循环过程的认识、量化其固碳潜力将有助于丰富海洋碳循环研究。本文首先系统梳理了鱼类参与碳循环的过程和机制等研究进展。鱼类通过产生碳酸盐粪便、水平和垂直迁移运输、生物扰动、生物碳和“尸体”碳以及食物网消耗与传输等方式参与海洋碳循环。鱼类参与碳循环的证据和参与海洋碳循环的重要性逐渐凸显。其次,本文提出目前鱼类参与碳循环研究存在的问题与挑战,包括渔业捕捞源汇之争、水产养殖业的机遇和挑战以及准确量化鱼源碳酸盐的困难,仍有待理论和方法学的深化研究和技术的革新去解决。最后本文提出鱼类参与碳循环的研究展望,及其在全球气候变化背景下的潜在机遇,同时结合当前渔业碳汇的发展进程以及行业需求,提出渔业减排固碳发展路径建议。本文旨在提升鱼类在海洋碳循环贡献和服务生态系统的潜力的认识,为海洋碳汇和渔业碳汇研究提供新的视角。 相似文献
9.
中国海洋碳循环生物地球化学过程研究的主要进展(1998-2002) 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11
阐述了1998-2002年期间中国海洋碳循环及其生物地球化学过程研究的3个主要进展部分：（1）海-气二氧化碳通量过程；（2）海水中碳及其生物地球化学循环；（3）入海河流流域土壤和沉积物在海洋碳循环中的作用；海洋与陆家容纳了近一半人类排放的二氧化碳，另外的50%被释放到大气中，海洋在缓和二氧化碳温室效应方面的作用不言而喻的，海洋储有的碳主要以无机碳的碳酸盐（CO3^2-）和碳酸氢盐（HCO3^-）的形式存在。海洋生态系统通过生物泵的作用驱动大气CO2进入海洋，在表面混合层中，由于生物的光合作用，CO2不断被转化成有机碳和生物碳酸盐，并进一步从表层CO2向深层转移，形成了海洋碳循环的主要途径，海洋水体中碳循环过程受到河口与近海碳的形态，转化，分布，迁移和生物生产过程等影响，海洋生物泵明显影响着海洋对空气中CO2的容量，春季和冬季东中国海皆为大气二氧化碳的汇，夏季皆为二氧化碳的源，秋季渤海与北黄海为二氧化碳的汇，南黄海与东海是二氧化碳的源。入海河流流域土壤，非入海河流流域的土壤和海洋沉积物在碳的来源，分布，含量以其迁移循环中具有重要的作用。 相似文献
10.
全球碳增汇需求高涨,海冰消退后的北冰洋被期待是一个主要的潜在碳增汇区。北冰洋太平洋扇区因受控于楚科奇海及其邻近海域较高的海洋固碳效率和碳深海封存量,在整个北冰洋碳循环中起着举足轻重的作用。开展该海域碳循环过程对环境快速变化的响应机制研究是实现北冰洋碳汇精准预测的基础。本文重点阐述了楚科奇海及其邻近海域碳循环过程（即海洋对大气二氧化碳的吸收、生物固碳、太平洋入流携带碳经陆架生物地化过程后向深海输出封存的陆架泵）对北冰洋环境快速变化的响应,并提出未来研究需要聚焦的关键科学问题。 相似文献
11.
Qi Shu Zhenya Song Ying Bao Xiaodan Yang Yajuan Song Xinfang Li Meng Wei Fangli Qiao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(10):22-31
We introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Ocean Model Intercomparison Project CORE2-forced (OMIP-1) experiment by using the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0 (FIO-ESM v2.0), and comprehensively evaluated the simulation results. Unlike other OMIP models, FIO-ESM v2.0 includes a coupled ocean surface wave component model that takes into account non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing in the ocean and effect of surface wave Stokes drift on air-sea momentum and heat fluxes in the climate system. A sub-layer sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle parameterization was also employed to take into account effect of SST diurnal cycle on air-sea heat ?uxes to improve simulations of air-sea interactions. Evaluations show that mean values and long-term trends of significant wave height were adequately reproduced in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulations, and there is a reasonable fit between the SST diurnal cycle obtained from in situ observations and that parameterized by FIO-ESM v2.0. Evaluations of model drift, temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation show that the model performs well in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulation. However, the summer sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic is underestimated. 相似文献
12.
The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO2 is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO2 accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO2 of less than 1 PgC y−1, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO2 growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition. 相似文献
13.
Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs). The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere. 相似文献
14.
The direct disposal of CO2 into the ocean interior represents a possible means to help mitigate rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Here, we use three different versions of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) to simulate the direct injection of liquid CO2 near Tokyo. Our results confirm that direct injection can sequester large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere when disposal is made at sufficient depth (80–100% of the carbon injected at 3000 m remains in the ocean after 500 years) but show that the calculated efficiency is rather sensitive to the choice of physical model. Moreover, we show, for the first time in an OGCM and under a reasonable set of economic assumptions, that sequestration effectiveness is quite high for even shallow injections. However, the severe acidification that accompanies injection and the impossibility of effectively monitoring injected plumes argue against the large-scale viability of this technology. Our coarse-grid models show that injection at the rate of 0.1 Pg-C/yr lowers pH near the site of injection by as much as 0.7–1.0 pH-unit. Such pH anomalies would be much larger in more finely gridded models (and in reality) and have potential to severely harm deep-sea organisms. We also show that, after several hundred years, one would effectively need to survey the entire ocean in order to accurately verify the inventory of injected carbon. These results suggest that while retention may be sufficient to justify disposal costs, other practical problems will limit or at best delay widespread deployment of this technology. 相似文献
15.
A. V. Eliseev I. I. Mokhov A. A. Karpenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(1):1-14
The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), has been supplemented by a zero-dimensional carbon cycle model. With the carbon dioxide emissions prescribed for the second half of the 19th century and for the 20th century, the model satisfactorily reproduces characteristics of the carbon cycle over this period. However, with continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2), the climate-carbon cycle feedback in the model leads to an additional atmospheric CO2 increase (in comparison with the case where the influence of climate changes on the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface is disregarded). This additional increase is varied in the range 67–90 ppmv depending on the scenario and is mainly due to the dynamics of soil carbon storage. The climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter varies nonmonotonically with time. Positions of its extremes separate characteristic periods of the change in the intensity of anthropogenic emissions and of climate variations. By the end of the 21st century, depending on the emission scenario, the carbon dioxide concentration is expected to increase to 615–875 ppmv and the global temperature will rise by 2.4–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial value. In the 20th–21st centuries, a general growth of the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean and its reduction in terrestrial ecosystems can be expected. In general, by the end of the 21st century, the more aggressive emission scenarios are characterized by a smaller climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter, a lower sensitivity of climate to a single increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions stored in the atmosphere and the ocean, and a smaller fraction of emissions in terrestrial ecosystems. 相似文献
16.
大西洋经向翻转环流(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,AMOC)作为全球大洋的极向热量输送带,对大西洋附近区域的天气及全球气候变化都存在至关重要的影响。采用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0(First Institute of Oceanography-earth system model version 2.0)分析了1850~2014年AMOC的空间分布特征及时间变化规律,并进一步讨论造成该变化的可能因素。研究结果表明:1850~2014年AMOC最大值出现在40°N、1 000 m深度附近,其时间序列总体呈现-0.079 1×106 m3/(s·a)的减弱趋势,该期间伴随着Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度的变浅。通过将模式计算的AMOC强度与RAPID (rapid climate change programme)和OSNAP (overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic program)观测资料进行对比,结合模式间并行比较结果显示该模式能较好地再现观测数据期间的AMOC变化规律。FIO-ESM v2.0模式模拟的AMOC具有55 a左右的年代际周期,Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度变化揭示的对流变化以及Labrador、GIN海域表层海水密度变化造成的海水下沉对AMOC强度的周期性振荡贡献较明显,其周期性变化与海表盐度(sea surface salinity,SSS)、海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、蒸发与降水的差值、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic oscillation,NAO)等要素的变化密切相关。 相似文献
17.
浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
上层海洋在全球气候系统中起着至关重要的作用。对上层海洋层结及混合的模拟偏差一直是海洋和气候数值模式发展中悬而未决的问题。本文首先评估了CMIP5中45个模式对上层海洋层结模拟的偏差，确认了冬季亚热带地区海洋模式垂向混合偏强。随后，基于自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式(FIO-ESM v1.0)，分别开展了1986?2005年期间包含和关闭海浪垂向混合情况下的数值实验，分析浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度模拟的影响及机制。发现浪致混合使得气候模式中亚热带海域冬季的海洋层结增强，增强的层结使上层海洋更加稳定。首次揭示了增加浪致混合反而降低了海洋总体的垂向混合率:浪致混合使北半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的227 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的178 cm2/s，降低了21.6%；南半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的189 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的165 cm2/s，降低了12.7%。进一步分析发现，浪致混合主要是通过增加冬季亚热带海域上层海洋的热含量从而强化了海洋的层结，最终改善了气候模式对上层海洋混合的模拟。 相似文献
18.
Katsumi Matsumoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(6):887-902
Iron fertilization of nutrient-rich surface waters of the ocean is one possible way to help slow the rising levels of atmospheric
CO2 by sequestering it in the oceans via biological carbon export. Here, I use an ocean general circulation model to simulate
a patch of nutrient depletion in the subpolar northwest Pacific under various scenarios. Model results confirm that surface
fertilization is an inefficient way to sequester carbon from the atmosphere (Gnanadesikan et al., 2003), since only about 20% of the exported carbon comes initially from the atmosphere. Fertilization reduces future production
and thus CO2 uptake by utilizing nutrients that would otherwise be available later. Effectively, this can be considered as leakage when
compared to a control run. This “effective” leakage and the actual leakage of sequestered CO2 cause a significant, rapid decrease in carbon retention (only 30–45% retained after 10 years and less than 20% after 50 years).
This contrasts markedly with the almost 100% retention efficiency for the same duration using the same model, when carbon
is disposed directly into the northwest Pacific (Matsumoto and Mignone, 2005). As a consequence, the economic effectiveness
of patch fertilization is poor in two limiting cases of the future price path of carbon. Sequestered carbon in patch fertilization
is lost to the atmosphere at increasingly remote places as time passes, which would make monitoring exceedingly difficult.
If all organic carbon from one-time fertilization reached the ocean bottom and remineralized there, acidification would be
about −0.05 pH unit with O2 depletion about −20 μmol kg−1. These anomalies are probably too small to seriously threaten deep sea biota, but they are underestimated in the model because
of its large grid size. The results from this study offer little to advocate purposeful surface fertilization as a serious
means to address the anthropogenic carbon problem. 相似文献
19.
E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(3):266-280
Results from numerical experiments with an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model coupled to the carbon evolution cycle are analyzed. The model is used to carry out an experiment on the simulation of the climate and carbon cycle change in 1861–2100 under a specified scenario of the carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel and land use. The spatial distribution of vegetation, soil, and oceanic carbon in the 20th century is generally close to available estimates from observational data. The model adequately reproduces the observed growth of atmospheric CO2 in the 20th century and the uptake of excess carbon by land ecosystems and by the ocean in the 1980s and 1990s. By 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is calculated to reach 742 ppmv under emission and land-use scenario A1B. The feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle in the model is positive, with a coefficient close to the mean of all the current models. The ocean and land uptakes of the CO2 emission by 2100 in the model are 25 and 19%, which are also close to the mean over all models. 相似文献