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1.
本文利用贵州省85个气象观测站,1960-2020年霜的气象观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法,对贵州省霜的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明：1960-2020年贵州省霜发生频次呈下降趋势,以-66次·（10a）-1速率减少,主要出现在每年的11月到次年的3月,12月最多,1月次之;省的西北部是霜的高发区,向东部、南部递减;平均霜期为168天,以-5.17d·（10a）-1速率缩短,平均初霜日呈推迟趋势,平均终霜日呈提前趋势;初霜日最早出现在省的西北部,向东部、南部推进,终霜日从南部向北部推进,最晚出现在西北部;霜期与初霜日呈显著负相关（相关系数为-0.644）,而与终霜日呈显著正相关（相关系数为0.647）,表明霜期缩短是初霜日推迟和终霜日提前共同作用结果;海拔高度与霜的发生频次、霜期、初霜日和终霜日均有很好的相关性,海拔高度与霜的发生频次和霜期的长短呈正相关,初霜日随海拔高度的增加而提前,终霜日随海拔高度的增加而推迟。 相似文献
2.
近50年我国霜期的时空分布及变化趋势分析 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
利用国家气象信息中心最新整编的1954-2003年中国677个站霜的气象观测资料,分析了我国霜期的地理分布特征,揭示了近50年来我国不同地域霜期的变化趋势和年代际变化特征,探讨了气候变暖背景下霜期的响应.研究表明,除极少数地区外,我国霜期呈缩短的趋势,并且霜期显著缩短发生在20世纪90年代以后;近50年全国大部分地区的初霜日期呈推迟趋势而终霜日期呈提前趋势,这可能与日最低气温、日最低0cm地温的不断升高有关,而初霜日期的推迟和终霜日期的提前最终导致霜期的缩短. 相似文献
3.
利用商洛7县(区)1961—2016年初、终霜日及无霜期资料,运用统计方法对其气候特征及变化趋势进行分析。结果显示:商洛初霜日随纬度和海拔高度的增加提前,终霜日随纬度和海拔高度的增加推迟,无霜期随纬度和海拔高度的增加缩短。商洛区域平均初霜日为10月31日,呈推迟趋势,线性倾向率为2.1d/10a;区域平均终霜日为3月29日,呈提前趋势,线性倾向率为-1.0d/10a;区域平均无霜期为214.7d,呈增长趋势,线性倾向率为3.1d/10a。商洛初霜日推迟趋势十分显著,2003年发生突变;终霜日无明显突变,无霜期日数增长显著,2007年发生突变。 相似文献
4.
近50 a中国霜期的变化特征分析 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
通过对中国霜气象观测资料的整理和分析,研究了1957-2006年中国霜期、初霜日、终霜日的时空分布和气候特征.结果表明,中国各地的霜期总体上是自北向南、自高山向平原逐渐缩短的,霜期长(短)的地区与初霜早(晚)、终霜晚(早)的地区非常一致.近50 a来,在全球增暖的背景下,中国大部分地区霜期在逐渐缩短,初霜日在逐渐推迟,终霜日在不断提前,1990s后这种趋势变得更加明显.霜期缩短显著的区域主要集中在我国东北、华北、内蒙古中部、江淮流域以及云贵高原和华南部分地区,而四川盆地和长江中下游部分地区霜期缩短的趋势并不明显,一些地方甚至略有延长的趋势.比较初霜日期与终霜日期的趋势变化,发现终霜日提前的趋势要比初霜日推后的趋势更加明显,这可能是由不同季节的增温幅度不同而引起的. 相似文献
5.
根据1961—2009年新疆博州4个国家基本气象站的日最低气温资料,用气候趋势系数t、检验研究了终霜冻、初霜冻和无霜冻期的特征、长期变化趋势及突变时间。结果表明:除阿拉山口外,博州自东向西随地势的由低到高终霜冻逐渐推迟,初霜冻逐渐提前,无霜冻期逐渐缩短。终霜冻除温泉为微弱的推迟趋势外,其他地区均呈提前趋势,但不显著;初霜冻以2.5～4.2 d/10 a的显著趋势推迟;无霜冻期以2.2～4.8 d/10 a的速率延长,除温泉外均为显著趋势。 相似文献
6.
王兴菊 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2022,16(1):62-69
摘要:选取1980-2019a贵州省84个地面观测站的资料，采用线性倾向率和单相关分析法，对近40a贵州省初霜期、终霜日、无霜期、霜冻日数的时空分布特征及其对气温的响应进行分析，并利用 M-K方法对霜期的突变特征进行分析。结果表明：贵州省年霜冻日数呈西多东少分布特征，大值区主要集中分布在省之西北部的赫章县和威宁县。贵州省的霜冻日数与海拔高度呈显著性正相关性，其中西部地区霜冻日数与海拔高度的相关性优于东部地区。贵州省霜冻期的月际变化呈单峰型分布，12月至次年1月为频率极大值，初霜日期和终霜日期的月际变化均呈单峰型分布，其中初霜日期的频率峰值出现在10月，终霜日期的频率峰值出现在3月。从气候线性趋势上看，初霜日期、终霜日期分别呈显著的推迟、提前趋势，而无霜期呈显著的延长趋势。从气候趋势突变特征上看，初霜日期和无霜日期分别在1989年、1997年出现了显著突变特征，其中初霜期突变后呈现推迟趋势，无霜期突变后呈现延长趋势，而终霜日在1993年和2011年出现了2次显著的突变特征，终霜日两次突变后均呈现提早的变化趋势。近40a气候变化趋势显著，其中9-10月气温的变暖趋势与初霜日期的推迟呈显著的正相关性，并且9月平均温度因子的贡献率大于其它的温度因子。根据贵州省的初霜期的M-K分析检测结果将初霜期分为提前期、推后期、停滞期3个阶段，通过对这三个阶段的环流特征进行分析，发现提前期与推后期在高度距平场上有大体相反的分析形势，停滞期在高纬度地区与提前期接近。提前期（推后期）的气压距平场从高纬到低纬呈现正负正（负正负）的分布贝加尔湖附近附近，（50°~60N°,100°~120E°）的区域为贵州初霜期影响关键区。 相似文献
7.
利用韩城1970—2019年初、终霜日及无霜期资料,运用统计方法对韩城初、终霜日及无霜期气候特征及变化趋势进行分析。结果显示:韩城近50 a平均初霜日为10月29日,呈推迟趋势,线性倾向率为16 d/10 a;平均终霜日为3月28日,呈提前趋势,线性倾向率为-57 d/10 a;无霜期为2135 d,呈增长趋势,线性倾向率为67 d/10 a,其变化促使热量资源稳定上升,将有利于农业生产,有助于提高花椒农产品产量和品质。韩城初霜日推迟不明显,2018年发生突变;终霜日提前趋势十分显著,2010年发生突变,无霜期增长趋势十分显著,并在2013年发生突变。韩城初霜日存在2 a和5 a左右的振荡周期,在20世纪70年代中期到80年代初期、90年代中期表现为明显的2 a振荡周期;终霜日存在2～4 a和6 a左右振荡周期,在70年代中期到80年代初期表现为明显的3 a振荡周期;无霜期在70年代中期到80年代初期、90年代末期到2000年初期、2007—2014年表现为明显的2～4 a振荡周期。韩城初霜日和无霜期年际变化基本一致,终霜日呈相反趋势。对韩城初（终）霜日早晚、无霜期长短年份进行划分,终霜日提前或推迟对无霜期的增长或缩短起主要作用,初霜日推迟或提前对无霜期的增长或缩短所起的作用不明显。 相似文献
8.
宁夏近44年霜冻的气候特征和变化规律分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对宁夏近44a来初(终)霜日、无霜期的气候特征和气候变化用现代气候诊断方法进行了分析,结果表明:宁夏大部分地区初霜提早的概率小于终霜推迟的概率;20世纪60年代到70年代,无霜期缩短,80年代以后初霜日推迟,终霜日提前,无霜期延长;44a来初霜日逐渐推迟,终霜日明显提早,无霜期明显的延长,1981-2004年固原地区表现出初、终霜日不明显提早,无霜期有非常不明显的缩短趋势,44a来初、终霜日发生了气候突变. 相似文献
9.
近45a来，太原平川和山区年平均气温为明显上升趋势，夜间增温是太原气候变暖的一个重要特征。1986年、1993年分别为山区和平川年平均气温转折年份，山区从1985年开始冬季平均气温发生突变。近45a来，太原年降水量呈减少趋势，主要是夏、秋季降水减少造成。在气候变暖的背景下，太原平川和山区年暴雨日数变化平稳，高温和春旱发生频次在增加，山区夏旱也呈缓慢增加趋势；太原山区霜期明显缩短，初霜在推迟，终霜在提前。 相似文献
10.
武威市初、终霜日气候特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了因地制宜,合理调整种植结构和布局,有效利用农业气候资源。利用1961—2014年武威市4个气象站点初、终霜日(最低地温≤0℃)观测资料,采用现代气候诊断分析方法,系统分析了该市年初、终霜日的时空变化特征。结果表明:受海拔高度、地形地势以及植被覆盖情况的影响,在空间分布上,武威市初霜日为山区早于荒漠区早于绿洲平原区,终霜日为山区晚于荒漠区晚于绿洲平原区,各地初、终霜日存在一定的异常性,正常初、终霜日均在60%左右,对农业生产造成危害的偏早和特早初霜日、偏晚和特晚终霜日的概率均在20%左右。在时间变化上,武威市初霜日呈显著推迟趋势,终霜日呈显著提早趋势,霜期呈显著缩短趋势,终霜日提早的幅度比初霜日推迟的幅度更大。初霜日和终霜日的时间序列均分别存在着8~10年和9~11年的准周期变化。初霜日在1998年发生了气候突变,终霜日在1996年发生了气候突变。 相似文献
11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
13.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
14.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
15.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
16.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
17.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
18.
基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。 相似文献
19.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
20.
Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed. 相似文献