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1.
As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method. 相似文献
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针对地震烈度速报工作中快速评估大震断层破裂方向的需求,使用我国西部多个地震的观测资料,根据有限移动源理论,利用趋势面分析方法探讨了震中一定范围内台站初始P波参数的方向差异特征,提出一种利用初始P波快速判定地震破裂断层方向的方法。并通过断层距模型和最小二乘法,统计回归最优拟合参数以确定地震断层破裂方式。通过实际震例对比分析了根据所提方法获得的判定结果与实际地震断层破裂分布的吻合度,证实了方法的可用性。本研究为利用地震实时监测资料快速进行地震断层破裂方向判定提供了新思路,可为地震烈度速报中破裂方向的快速判定和动态修正提供参考。 相似文献
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Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte–Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
4.
地震经济损失快速评估是应急救灾的重要决策依据。本文选取了震级、极震区烈度、极震区烈度和抗震设防烈度之差ΔI、人口密度、人均GDP等5个指标作为输入层节点,将地震灾害的直接经济损失作为输出层节点,通过对1996—2013年的地震灾害损失资料进行训练和仿真分析,构建了Elman神经网络地震经济损失快速估计模型。运用该模型,对近年来的7个破坏性地震的直接经济损失进行评估分析,评估结果和实际直接经济损失有较好的一致性,该方法为地震经济损失快速评估提供了一种新思路。 相似文献
5.
Andrea Donnellan John Rundle Geoffrey Fox Dennis McLeod Lisa Grant Terry Tullis Marlon Pierce Jay Parker Greg Lyzenga Robert Granat Margaret Glasscoe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(11-12):2263-2279
We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth Science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear, resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid. 相似文献
6.
基于1990—2020年地震灾害损失(包括经济损失、人员死亡和人员受伤)数据,分析了过去30年中国大陆地区地震灾害损失的时空分布特征。采用常规标准化方法分析了1990—2019年我国大陆地区地震灾害经济损失的时间分布,认为地震灾害在过去30年间逐渐由人身安全威胁向经济财产威胁转变。通过整理分析2011—2020年各省地震灾害的空间分布特征,认为有必要进一步强化四川、云南、甘肃的抗震设防工作,提升其抵御灾害地震风险的能力;在中东部经济较发达地区,应尤其关注地震造成的间接经济损失和人员受伤情况。通过各省的提取地形坡度因素,采用地统计方法定量计算地震损失与地形坡度因素间的空间相关性系数,认为在以自然条件为基础分析地震灾害的过程中,因震致死与地形的空间相关性不如经济损失和因震致伤高,结合过去30年地震灾害的时间分布特征,得出因震致死和因震致伤总体保持平稳,但经济损失急剧增长,且增长趋势越来越显著,这主要是由经济发展等社会人文因素导致。 相似文献
7.
烈度衰减关系是快速评估的关键。利用浙江及其周边的历史地震资料,经过GIS空间分析处理,获得地震的长短轴参数和震中位置,同时对照大地构造分区将地震进行空间分区分类。在此基础上,使用相关地震快速评估模型构建对浙江省内有影响地区的地震评估的长短轴模型,为相关地区的地震评估提供参考。 相似文献
8.
There are limitations in conventional earthquake loss procedures if attempts are made to apply these to assess the social and economic impacts of recent disastrous earthquakes. This paper addresses the need to develop an applicable model for estimating the significant increases of earthquake loss in mainland China. The casualties of earthquakes were studied first. The casualties of earthquakes are strongly related to earthquake strength, occurrence time (day or night) and the distribution of population in the affected area. Using data on earthquake casualties in mainland China from 1980 to 2000, we suggest a relationship between average losses of life and the magnitude of earthquakes. Combined with information on population density and earthquake occurrence times, we use these data to give a further relationship between the loss of life and factors like population density, intensity and occurrence time of the earthquake. Earthquakes that occurred from 2001 to 2003 were tested for the given relationships. This paper also explores the possibility of using a macroeconomic indicator, here GDP (Gross Domestic Product), to roughly estimate earthquake exposure in situations where no detailed insurance or similar inventories exist, thus bypassing some problems of the conventional method. 相似文献
9.
刍议国际地震保险投保率 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地震灾难带来的损失日益增加的问题，让保险业至今难以应对。地震发生频率低、损失巨大而保险公司的承保能力又十分有限，加之，社会公众的投保意识薄弱，造成地震保险投保率过低。从地震灾情入手，介绍了国际地震保险开展情况，剖析了地震保险投保率过低的原因，并针对问题提出了解决措施。 相似文献
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破坏性地震往往导致严重的经济损失及人员伤亡,对地震损失价值评价有助于震前找出抗震弱点,提高抗震能力,实现减轻地震灾害损失的目的。传统空间模型在地震数据处理过程中,无法处理大数据对空间尺度选择的干扰,存在地震损失评估结果偏差大以及波动性高的弊端。因此,在云计算平台下,提出基于大数据的地震损失价值评估模型设计,对模型HAZ-China大数据的服务层次、地震应用服务层以及HAZ-China大数据体系结构进行设计,为用户提供震前、震时以及震后的地震损失价值评估服务。模型采用HBase分布式数据库实现大数据的存储和分析,设计房屋震害数据库以及云计算模型,通过考虑大数据因素的地震灾害损失综合评估过程,实现地震损失价值的准确评估。实验结果说明,所设计模型可实现地震损失价值的准确评估,具有较高的评估精度和稳定性。 相似文献
13.
Karin Sesetyan Can ZulfikarMine Demircioglu Ufuk HancilarYaver Kamer Mustafa Erdik 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011
Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System equipped with 100 instruments and two data processing centers aims at the near real time estimation of earthquake damages using most recently developed methodologies and up-to-date structural and demographic inventories of Istanbul city. The methodology developed for near real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake consists of the following general steps: (1) rapid estimation of the ground motion distribution using the strong ground motion data gathered from the instruments; (2) improvement of the ground motion estimations as earthquake parameters become available and (3) estimation of building damage and casualties based on estimated ground motions and intensities. The present paper elaborates on the ground motion and damage estimation methodologies used by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System with a special emphasis on validation and verification of the different methods. 相似文献
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Xue-Ze Wen 《地震学报(英文版)》1993,6(4):993-1004
Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according
to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone
have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized
by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes
of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon
average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific
segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various
sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic
potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable
behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the
individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two
parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods
for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993. 相似文献
16.
地震灾害损失快速评估与制图在震后应急中发挥着极其重要的作用。本文以京津冀地区为例,实现一种新颖、实用的快速评估与制图技术,其基于离线数据与自主研发的软件模块即可完成地震灾害损失快速评估与专业制图表达。关键技术与方法包括:①京津冀地区基础地理数据与重要涉震数据的融合处理,基于细节层次模型（LOD）的地图显示原理,制作多级预缓存离线地图数据;②基于先进的分区分类评估模型与计算方法,生成京津冀地区不同烈度下地震灾害损失预评估结果的公里网格数据;③针对大量的离线地图数据与损失预评估公里网格数据,基于地理空间分区实现高效的离线存储管理机制;④基于面向对象编程和图形图像处理技术,实现地震灾害损失快速评估与专业制图表达一体化软件集成开发。本研究实现了全链条关键技术,不依赖任何第三方商业软件或服务插件,1分钟内即可自动完成快速评估报告与系列专题图件的生成。研究结果在多次地震应急中取得应用实效,对于提高地震应急处置能力有重要意义。 相似文献
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世界地震灾害损失的统计 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
有关全世界地震灾害损失的统计，能较全面提供实数者尚不多见，该文章介绍了世界地震灾害损失的统计情况，内容包括：世界地震灾害损失总计，年代阶段地震灾害损失的统计，统计方法，地震死亡人数的统计，经济损失的统计，中国地震灾害损失在全世界范围的比重。 相似文献
18.
地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文从地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡和可挽回的经济损失两个角度出发, 研究了地震预警系统的效能和社会效益. 通过对兰州市及周边地区潜在震源各个震级档的年平均发生概率进行计算, 并结合以兰州市为中心布设的80个强震预警台站信息, 计算了有效的预警时间及地震烈度. 基于生命易损性模型方法, 计算了地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡系数; 采用基于宏观GDP的损失评估方法, 计算了地震预警系统可减少的经济损失, 分析了地震预警系统的社会效益. 计算结果表明: 减小地震预警盲区范围对提高地震预警系统的效能非常关键; 地震预警系统的建设和台网布局应重点考虑布设区域的人口密度、 经济情况及地震发生概率. 相似文献
19.
准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河 相似文献
20.
生命线工程的震害及损失评估工作对于震害防御和震后地震应急工作有着极其重要的意义。 但是, 生命线工程是一个复杂庞大的网络系统, 目前对其开展的震害及损失评估研究工作存在着很大的局限性和不确定性。 本文充分利用研究较多且较系统的建筑物震害及损失评估结果, 结合历次典型历史地震震害中建筑物和生命线震害情况, 通过分析建筑物损失和生命线工程损失的数量关系, 建立二者之间的关联模型; 通过对人口、 GDP、 土地利用等公里网格数据进行分析, 给出中国大陆地区的分区分类原则, 建立分区分类的生命线工程地震直接经济损失分析模型; 基于GIS软件平台, 开发了生命线工程地震直接经济损失分析模块, 利用该模块, 得出了四川省不同地震烈度下的生命线工程直接经济损失空间分布情况。 相似文献