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1.
Based on snow-depth and measured runoff data in the 19 river basins of the cryosphere areas of China, changes in cold season snow depth (CSSD) and spring runoff, and the relationship between CSSD and spring runoff were analysed. Decreasing trends in CSSD were detected mainly in the plains (plateaus), while increasing trends were found mainly in the mountainous regions. Different combinations of precipitation and temperature may be responsible for these results. The response of spring runoff to CSSD change varied greatly under climate warming. The runoff in April and May was commonly affected by CSSD, while the runoff in March was less affected by CSSD, but more by the increasing temperature causing more snowmelt in March. Due to relatively greater snow accumulation in spring, the runoff during spring was less affected by CSSD in the southern Tienshan Mountains.  相似文献   

2.
The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):538-549
Abstract

Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months.  相似文献   

5.
A physically based SVAT‐model was tested with soil and snow physical measurements, as well as runoff data from an 8600 m2 catchment in northern Sweden in order to quantify the influence of soil frost on spring snowmelt runoff in a moderately sloped, boreal forest. The model was run as an array of connected profiles cascading to the brook. For three winter seasons (1995–98) it was able to predict the onset and total accumulation of the runoff with satisfactory accuracy. Surface runoff was identified as only a minor fraction of the total runoff occurring during short periods in connection with ice blocking of the water‐conducting pores. Little surface runoff, though, does not mean that soil frost is unimportant for spring runoff. Simulations without frost routines systematically underestimated the total accumulated runoff. The possibility of major frost effects appearing in response to specific combinations of weather conditions were also tested. Different scenarios of critical initial conditions for the winter, e.g. high water saturation and delayed snow accumulation leading to an increased frost penetration, were tested. These showed that under special circumstances there is potential for increased spring runoff due to soil frost. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Temporal patterns in specific runoff, dissolved organic carbon concentrations [DOC] and fluxes were examined during two periods: 1994–1997 (period 1) and 2007–2009 (period 2) in five adjacent tributary catchments of Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario, Canada. The catchments displayed similar patterns of land use change with increases in urbanization (5–16%) and forest cover (0.2–4%) and declines in agriculture (4–8%) between 1994 and 2008. Climate in the catchments was similar; temperature increased slightly, but no significant change in precipitation was observed. Despite similar pattern of climate and land use, runoff responses and tributary [DOC] were different across the catchments. Following a very dry year (i.e. 1999), runoff increased steadily until the end of record. We observed increased variability in tributary [DOC] and higher DOC exports in period 2. This led to ~10% increase in [DOC] and a 13% increase in flux between the two study periods. Between the two periods, [DOC] increased by 15% in spring and 25% in summer, whereas flux increased by 17% in spring and 48% in summer. [DOC] was consistently higher in the growing (summer + autumn) than the dormant (winter + spring, minus spring melt months) seasons, but no unique pattern or simple linear flow/concentrations relationships existed. This suggests complex spatial and temporal pattern to runoff controls on DOC and flow dynamics in adjacent catchments. We therefore caution against extrapolating from monitored to unmonitored catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.

Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented. Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10%, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially. an increment by 20% for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contmy, the runoff in June decreased about 5%. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account. direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase

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8.
Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented. Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10%, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially. an increment by 20% for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contmy, the runoff in June decreased about 5%. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account. direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase  相似文献   

9.
As a result of global warming, the discharges from rivers in permafrost regions have varied significantly. However, its mechanism remains unclear. One of possible factors is active soil freeze–thaw cycle, which may influence surface runoff in the variation of permafrost water cycle processes. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau was selected, its hydrological processes were monitored from 2004 to 2007, and the effects of the freezing and thawing depth of the soil active layer on runoff processes were assessed. The runoff modulus, runoff coefficient, direct runoff ratio, recession gradient and their seasonal variations were estimated and analyzed. The active soil dynamics and water budget were analyzed to prove the features of the surface runoff and the influences of active soil freeze–thaw processes. The primary factors influencing surface runoff processes during different seasons were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and statistical regression methods. The results showed that the high runoff coefficient and low direct runoff ratio were the main characteristics during the spring flood period (May–June) and during the autumn recession period (September). The runoff modulus and its year-to-year variability were the greatest in the summer flood period. The direct runoff ratio decreased from 0.43 in May to 0.29 in September, with the exception of the highest ratio, which occurred during the summer recession period (July). The active soil thawing in the upper layer of depth of 60 cm had contributed to increase in discharge, but the increase in thawing depth deeper than 60 cm led to a decrease in surface runoff and slowness in the recession process. Precipitation played a small role in the spring flood runoff and the autumn runoff. The soil active layer freeze–thaw variation, which affected seasonal soil water dynamic and water budget and reformed seasonal runoff characteristics, along with vegetation cover changes, is considered the potential major factor in control of the hydrological processes in the permafrost region.  相似文献   

10.
Understanding rainfall‐runoff processes is crucial for prevention and prediction of water‐related natural disasters. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potential tracer, but few researches have applied it for rainfall‐runoff process studies. We observed multiple tracers including SF6 in spring water at 1‐ to 2‐hr intervals during rainstorm events to investigate the effectivity of SF6 tracer in rainfall–runoff studies through the clarification of rainfall–runoff process. The target spring is a perennial spring in a forested headwater catchment with an area of 0.045 km2 in Fukushima, Japan. The relationship between the SF6 concentration in spring water and the spring discharge volume was negative trend; the SF6 concentration in spring water becomes low as the spring discharge volume increases especially during rainstorms. The hydrograph separation using SF6 and chloride ion tracers was applied for determining the contribution of principal sources on rainfall–runoff water. It suggested more than 60% contribution of bedrock groundwater at the rainfall peak and high percentage contribution continued even in the hydrograph recession phase. Based on observed low SF6 concentration in groundwater after heavy rainfall, the replacement of groundwater near the spring with bedrock groundwater is indicated as a mechanism for water discharge with low SF6 concentration during rainfall events. Consequently, rainstorm events play an important role as triggers in discharging water stored in the deeper subsurface area. In addition, SF6 tracer is concluded as one of the strongest tracers for examining rainfall–runoff process studies. And, therefore, this study provided new insights into the dynamics of groundwater and its responses to rainfall in terms of SF6 concentration variance in water in headwater regions.  相似文献   

11.
Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.  相似文献   

12.
We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Kalugin  A. S. 《Water Resources》2018,45(1):102-111
A method of spatial calibration and verification of regional numerical physically based models of river runoff formation, incorporating runoff formation processes in the main river channel and its tributaries, was used to obtain a statistical estimate of the quality of river runoff calculation by conventional and alternative criteria focused on runoff reproduction in different phases of water regime and the characteristics of its variations. The analysis of the simulation quality of the annual and mean monthly river runoff (average runoff, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation) at the near-mouth gages over the historical period with boundary conditions represented by data of global climate models showed the results to be satisfactory. This allows the proposed combination of climate and hydrological models to be used to study physically based regional variations of water regime under different physiographic and climatic conditions in the examined river basins with flood runoff regime (the Amur R.) and the predominant snowmelt runoff during spring flood (the Lena R.).  相似文献   

14.
The impacts of land use intensity, here defined as the degree of imperviousness, on stormwater volumes, runoff rates and their temporal occurrence were studied at three urban catchments in a cold region in southern Finland. The catchments with ‘High’ and ‘Intermediate’ land use intensity, located around the city centre, were characterized by 89% and 62% impervious surfaces, respectively. The ‘Low’ catchment was situated in a residential area of 19% imperviousness. During a 2‐year study period with divergent weather conditions, the generation of stormwater correlated positively with catchment imperviousness: The largest annual stormwater volumes and the highest runoff coefficients and number of stormwater runoff events occurred in the High catchment. Land use intensity also altered the seasonality of stormwater runoff: Most stormwater in the High catchment was generated during the warm period of the year, whereas the largest contribution to annual stormwater generation in the Low catchment took place during the cold period. In the two most urbanized catchments, spring snow melt occurred a few weeks earlier than in the Low catchment. The rate of stormwater runoff in the High and Intermediate catchments was higher in summer than during spring snow melt, and summer runoff rates in these more urbanized catchments were several times higher than in the Low catchment. Our study suggests that the effects of land use intensity on stormwater runoff are season dependent in cold climates and that cold seasons diminish the differences between land use intensities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET0 was driven mainly by wind speed. ET0 was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The fill–spill of surface depressions (wetlands) results in intermittent surface water connectivity between wetlands in the prairie wetland region of North America. Dynamic connectivity between wetlands results in dynamic contributing areas for runoff. However, the effect of fill–spill and the resultant variable or dynamic basin contributing area has largely been disregarded in the hydrological community. Long‐term field observations recorded at the St. Denis National Wildlife Area, Saskatchewan, allow fill–spill in the basin to be identified and quantified. Along with historical water‐level observations dating back to 1968, recent data collected for the basin include snow surveys, surface water survey and production of a light detection and ranging–derived digital elevation model. Data collection for the basin includes both wet and dry antecedent basin conditions during spring runoff events. A surface water survey at St. Denis in 2006 reveals a disconnected channel network during the spring freshet runoff event. Rather than 100% of the basin contributing runoff to the outlet, which most hydrological models assume, only approximately 39% of the basin contributes to the outlet. Anthropogenic features, such as culverts and roads, were found to influence the extent and spatial distribution of contributing areas in the basin. Historical pond depth records illustrate the effect of antecedent basin conditions on fill–spill and basin contributing area. A large pond at the outlet of the St. Denis basin, which only receives local runoff during dry years when upstream surface storage has not been satisfied, has pond runoff volumes that increase by a factor of 20 or more during wet years when upstream antecedent basin surface storage is satisfied and basin‐wide runoff contributes to the pond. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
《Journal of Hydrology》2006,316(1-4):1-12
Few studies have reported runoff from small agricultural watersheds over sufficiently long period so that the effect of different cover types on runoff can be examined. We analyzed 45-yrs of monthly and annual rainfall-runoff characteristics of a small (7.8 ha) zero-order typical Southern Piedmont watershed in southeastern United States. Agricultural land use varied as follows: 1. Row cropping (5-yrs); 2. Kudzu (Pueraria lobata; 5-yrs); 3. Grazed kudzu and rescuegrass (Bromus catharticus; 7-yrs); and 4. Grazed bermudagrass and winter annuals (Cynodon dactylon; 28-yrs). Land use and rainfall variability influenced runoff characteristics. Row cropping produced the largest runoff amount, percentage of the rainfall partitioned into runoff, and peak flow rates. Kudzu reduced spring runoff and almost eliminated summer runoff, as did a mixture of kudzu and rescuegrass (KR) compared to row cropping. Peak flow rates were also reduced during the kudzu and KR. Peak flow rates increased under bermudagrass but were lower than during row cropping. A simple process-based ‘tanh’ model modified to take the previous month's rainfall into account produced monthly rainfall and runoff correlations with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.74. The model was tested on independent data collected during drought. Mean monthly runoff was 1.65 times the observed runoff. Sustained hydrologic monitoring is essential to understanding long-term rainfall-runoff relationships in agricultural watersheds.  相似文献   

20.
In this work, we used the Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model to examine runoff sensitivity to land cover changes in a mountain environment. Two independent experiments were evaluated where we conducted simulations with multiple vegetation cover changes that include conversion to grass, no vegetation cover and deciduous/coniferous cover scenarios. The model experiments were performed at two hillslopes within the Weber River near Oakley, Utah watershed (USGS gauge # 10128500). Daily precipitation, air temperature and wind speed data as well as spatial data that include a digital elevation model with 30 m grid resolution, soil texture map and vegetation and land use maps were processed to drive RHESSys simulations. Observed runoff data at the watershed outlet were used for calibration and verification. Our runoff sensitivity results suggest that during winter, reduced leaf area index (LAI) decreases canopy interception resulting in increased snow accumulations and hence snow available for runoff during the early spring melt season. Increased LAI during the spring melt season tends to delay the snow melting process. This delay in snow melting process is due to reduced radiation beneath high LAI surfaces relative to low LAI surfaces. The model results suggest that annual runoff yield after removing deciduous vegetation is on average about 7% higher than with deciduous vegetation cover, while annual runoff yield after removing coniferous vegetation is on average as about 2% higher than that produced with coniferous vegetation cover. These simulations thus help quantify the sensitivity of water yield to vegetation change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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