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1.
利用哈密绿洲1961—2015年6个国家气象站逐日日照时数和风速观测资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法研究该地区近55a日照时数和风速的年际、年代际、季和月的变化特征。结果表明:近55a哈密绿洲日照时数和风速年际、年代际变化幅度都较大,最小值均出现在20世纪90年代,最大值出现时间明显不同,日照时数出现在2011年,风速在1966年。哈密绿洲日照时数呈显著增加趋势,气候倾向率为6.5h/10a,以红柳河增加最突出,气候倾向率达22.0h/10a;年平均风速呈明显的减少趋势,气候倾向率为-0.06(m/s)/10a,以哈密减小的趋势最明显,气候倾向率达到-3.5(m/s)/10a。日照时数没有明显突变,1975年为风速明显减小的突变年。日照时数存在准9a的年际振荡周期和准20a的年代际振荡周期,风速存在准10a、18a年代际振荡周期。 相似文献
2.
《高原气象》2018,(5)
选取河西西部地区及周边14个站点1958-2013年的气温、降水、相对湿度和风速等气象数据,运用多元线性回归模型、反距离加权插值和Mann-Kendall等方法,对其时空变化规律进行了较为系统地分析。结果表明,平均气温呈持续上升趋势,年际倾向率为0. 25℃·(10a)~(-1),以春季增温率最大,突变发生在1989年;空间上呈中部高、南北低的特点。降水量总体在波动中增加,年际倾向率为1.30mm·(10a)~(-1),秋季降水增加的倾向率最大,其突变点不显著;空间分布上西北少、东南多。相对湿度波动中略有增加,年际倾向率为0. 09%·(10a)~(-1),其中春季和夏季呈下降趋势,秋季和冬季则呈上升趋势,同时未发生明显突变;空间上自西向东呈增加趋势。平均风速变化阶段性显著,1985年前后发生明显的减小突变,突变前后均值相差0. 56 m·s~(-1),各季节中冬季突变前后均值差值最大;空间上自北向南逐渐减小。 相似文献
3.
刘强军 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2022,16(1):96-103
基于山西省太行山南麓晋城市5个国家气象站1960—2020年平均风速、最大风速等数据，应用线性趋势、气候倾向率及小波分析等方法，对晋城市近60年风速时空变化特征及其对大气颗粒物浓度的影响进行了分析。结果表明：1960—2020年晋城市的年代际和年平均风速都呈减小趋势，其变化倾向率分别为-1.3 m·s-1·10a-1 和-0.124 m·s-1·10a-1；季节平均风速冬春两季大于夏秋两季，春季最大，秋季最小，四季平均风速均呈震荡减小的演变趋势，1989年之后四季平均风速的波动幅度趋于平缓。空间上，全市年平均风速从西往东渐次减小，各站气候倾向率介于-0.21～-0.07 m·s-1·10a－1之间，均为减小趋势。晋城市季节平均风速空间分布为由西北向东南逐渐减小，四季风速气候倾向率均为负值。按照不同级别区间统计风频，晋城市3级和4级风出现频率最高，且呈快速增大趋势，出现频率最低的7级及以上风呈快速减少趋势；晋城市西南部小风风频大，东部大风风频大。平均风速小波周期分析发现晋城市35 a左右尺度周期显著，功率谱最强，具有全域性。晋城市大气颗粒物浓度市区大于各县（市），平均最大风速与PM2.5及PM10浓度均呈现明显负相关，与细颗粒PM2.5及粗颗粒PM10的相关系数无显著差别。最大风速在4级以下时，影响较小，从5级开始对颗粒物浓度影响巨大，晋城市常年以3～4级风为主，5级以上风渐次快速减少，对空气质量污染扩散非常不利。 相似文献
4.
5.
呼和浩特市白塔机场气象观测要素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用呼和浩特市白塔机场气象站1977--2010年月平均最高、最低气温,月降水量资料和1979--2010年月平均风速资料,分析了近34a气象要素变化特征。得出：呼和浩特白塔机场近34a来,（1）年平均气温、年降水量都没有明显的变化趋势,进入21世纪以来气候变率明显变大,气候不稳定性增加;（2）气温的年日较差明显增大,气候倾向率为0．4℃／10a;（3）年平均相对湿度在三个时段存在不同的变化特征;（4）年平均风速呈现出明显的减小趋势,平均每10a减小了0．3m·s^-1（5）四个要素中,气温年日较差由小变大的突变特征最为明显,1990年前后出现突变点;平均风速则存在由大转小的突变过程,突变时间点在1996年;年平均气温南低向高的突变过程较弱,且持续时间较短;年降水量和年平均相对湿度在近34a罩均不存在气候突变现象,气候状态相对稳定。呼和浩特机场气候与市区气候存在明显的差异．还需进一步深入分析。 相似文献
6.
利用1981—2014年重庆地区气象观测资料,基于气候统计法分析重庆地区雾和霾的气候特征,结果表明:重庆雾日总体呈显著减少趋势,两种雾日观测资料的倾向率分别为为-10.3 d/10a和-7.6 d/10 a;雾日的空间分布总体呈"中西部多,东南东北少,西部偏北地区多于西部偏南地区"。霾日总体趋势与雾日变化相反,呈显著上升趋势,倾向率为12.9 d/10a,并且霾日发生显著增加的时段与雾日发生显著减少的时段基本一致,2000年前后霾日经历了明显的突变;霾的分布主要呈现"以主城为中心,中西部多,东北部和东南部少"的特点。 相似文献
7.
利用山东22个基本（准）气象站小时气象观测资料,采用A值法计算了山东1961—2017年逐日大气自净能力指数（the atmospheric self-purification capacity index,ASPC）,分析了其气候空间分布特征和时间演变规律,利用MK检验（Mann-Kendall检验）和MT检验（Moving-t,滑动t检验）方法对历年ASPC进行了突变检验。结果表明：平均ASPC气候倾向率减小趋势极显著(P<0.01),除章丘和威海外,其他各地ASPC减小趋势均极显著(P<0.01);春季各月ASPC较大,历年各月ASPC随时间明显减小;年和四季ASPC空间分布基本一致,半岛地区较大,鲁南等内陆地区相对较小;年和春、夏、秋、冬季ASPC突变年份分别出现在2003年和2006年、2003年、2003年、2005年。济南、青岛地区ASPC分别从1999年、1993年开始显著减小,低ASPC日数历年变化大致与ASPC变化相反;济南和青岛历年各月ASPC变化差异明显。 相似文献
8.
利用资源县1961~2017年逐日气温观测资料,应用线性倾向估计、t检验及M-K突变检验法对资源县57年冬季气候变暖特征进行了分析。结果表明:近57年资源县冬季、年平均气温上升趋势显著,线性倾向率为0.276、0.19℃/10a,冬季气候变暖趋势明显,对全年气候变暖贡献较大;2月份平均气温显著上升,线性倾向率为0.419℃/10a,对冬季变暖贡献较大;极端最低气温上升趋势更为显著,线性倾向率为0.448℃/10a,对冬季增温影响最显著;冬季平均气温的突变点发生在1996年;20世纪1960~1980年代为冬季低温期,冷冬大多出现在1980年代之前,暖冬1990年代之后呈明显增加趋势。 相似文献
9.
华北地区风速变化的分析 总被引：14，自引：1，他引：13
本文利用华北地区1957-2006年共计50a 104个气象观测站的实测风速,分析了该地区年平均风速的空间分布特征、逐年代变化特征、近50a来的变化趋势以及风速突变现象,研究表明,华北地区风速呈西北和东南地区偏大、东北一西南向风速偏小的分布特征;风速有减小趋势,大部分台站风速减小趋势达到了-0.2～-0.5(m·s-1)/10a;华北南部风速最先开始突变,西部次之,北部和中部没有检测到突变时间. 相似文献
10.
利用甘肃省26个气象站1961—2010年逐月日照时数资料,采用线性趋势分析、异常年份分析、Mann-Kendall和功率谱等方法,分析了日照时数的时空变化及突变特征.结果表明:50年来,甘肃年日照时数表现为缓慢的下降趋势,气候倾向率为-0.29 h·(10 a)-1,1997年以来显著减少;夏、冬季日照时数呈下降趋势,春、秋季则呈增加趋势;年日照时数异常偏少年份主要出现在20世纪80年代,而异常偏多的年份多发生在20世纪90年代至今;甘肃年日照时数空间差异明显,分布趋势基本上呈由东南向西北逐渐增多形势.Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto突变检验表明,四季日照时数未发生显著突变.周期分析表明,甘肃年日照时数存在2 a的振荡周期,通过了90%置信度检验. 相似文献
11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
14.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
15.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
16.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
17.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
18.
基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。 相似文献
19.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
20.
Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed. 相似文献