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1.
The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   

2.
Geological studies show evidence for temporal clustering of large earthquakes on individual fault systems. Since post-seismic deformation due to the inelastic rheology of the lithosphere may result in a variable loading rate on a fault throughout the interseismic period, it is reasonable to expect that the rheology of the non-seismogenic lower crust and mantle lithosphere may play a role in controlling earthquake recurrence times. We study this phenomenon using a 2-D, finite element method continuum model of the lithosphere containing a single strike-slip fault. This model builds on a previous study using a 1-D spring-dashpot-slider analogue of a single fault system to study the role of Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation in producing non-periodic earthquakes. In our 2-D model, the seismogenic portion of the fault slips when a predetermined yield stress is exceeded; stress accumulated on the seismogenic fault is shed to the viscoelastic layers below and recycled back to the seismogenic fault through viscoelastic relaxation. We find that random variation of the fault yield stress from one earthquake to the next can cause the earthquake sequence to be clustered; the amount of clustering depends on a non-dimensional number, W , called the Wallace number defined as the standard deviation of the randomly varied fault yield stress divided by the effective viscosity of the system times the tectonic loading rate. A new clustering metric based on the bimodal distribution of interseismic intervals allows us to investigate clustering behaviour of systems over a wide range of model parameters and those with multiple viscoelastic layers. For models with   W ≥ 1  clustering increases with increasing W , while those with   W ≤ 1  are unclustered, or quasi-periodic.  相似文献   

3.
Scaling relationships between seismic moment, rupture length, and rupture width have been examined. For this purpose, the data from several previous studies have been merged into a database containing more than 550 events. For large earthquakes, a dependence of scaling on faulting mechanism has been found. Whereas small and large dip-slip earthquakes scale in the same way, the self-similarity of earthquakes breaks down for large strike-slip events. Furthermore, no significant differences in scaling could be found between normal and reverse earthquakes and between earthquakes from different regions. Since the thickness of the seismogenic layer limits fault widths, most strike-slip earthquakes are limited to rupture widths of between 15 and 30 km while the rupture length is not limited. The aspect ratio of dip-slip earthquakes is similar for all earthquake sizes. Hence, the limitation in rupture width seems to control the maximum possible rupture length for these events. The different behaviour of strike-slip and dip-slip earthquakes can be explained by rupture dynamics and geological fault growth. If faults are segmented, with the thickness of the seismogenic layer controlling the length of each segment, strike-slip earthquakes might rupture connected segments more easily than dip-slip events, and thus could produce longer ruptures than dip-slip events of the same width  相似文献   

4.
We perform a systematic parameter space study of the seismic response of a large fault with different levels of heterogeneity, using a 3-D elastic framework within the continuum limit. The fault is governed by rate-and-state friction and simulations are performed for model realizations with frictional and large scale properties characterized by different ranges of size scales. We use a number of seismicity and stress functions to characterize different types of seismic responses and test the correlation between hypocenter locations and the employed distributions of model parameters. The simulated hypocenters are found to correlate significantly with small L values of the rate-and-state friction. The final sizes of earthquakes are correlated with physical properties at their nucleation sites. The obtained stacked scaling relations are overall self-similar and have good correspondence with properties of natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history, one is from catastrophic earthquake events, and the other is from extreme climatic events, due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic complexity. Although these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society, it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal (emperor) timescales. Based on detailed comparisons between abrupt climatic changes, catastrophic seismic activities, and the history of Chinese dynasty alternation from 1000-2000 AD, we conclude that on decadal timescales, extreme drought (and/or flood) events could indeed significantly reduce agricultural production, cause severe food shortages and famine, and result in increases in population exile, rising food prices and inflation, and insufficient supplies for military defense, which could exceed social resilience and eventually lead to financial risks and social upheavals of the dynasties. In addition, catastrophic seismic events in the densely populated, agricultural areas of China, including the 1303 surface wave magnitude (Ms) 8.0 Hongtong earthquake, the 1556 Ms 8.25 Huaxian earthquake and the 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake, caused more than 200,000 casualties and millions of victims to live in exile which was almost equivalent to the order of magnitude of those extreme climatic events-induced refugees. The secondary geological hazards related to the earthquakes (e.g., extensive landslides and soil erosion), which could last for decades, caused more casualties and reduced food production. Furthermore, great plague spread caused by the casualties could significantly increase psychological panic among the survivors, resulting in social instability. Therefore, catastrophic seismic events could also accelerate the collapse of the dynasties (e.g., the Ming dynasty) without immediate mitigation measures. This study indicates that catastrophic seismic activities, as well as extreme climatic events, could have great effects on the social structures and thus on the Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal timescales, which highlights the far-reaching implications of geological hazard research.  相似文献   

6.
中国地震灾害人口死亡风险定量评估(英文)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
基于地震灾害风险形成机理,在建立人口震害脆弱性曲线与确定地震发生参数的基础上,本文利用评估模型对我国Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行评估并分析其空间分布格局。主要研究内容有:(1)首次采用基于过去—现在—未来的多方面地震孕灾环境资料来处理地震发生的可能性。具体综合历史地震综合烈度、地震活动断裂带分布、地震动峰值加速度三方面来确定全国2355个县域单元的地震发生参数;(2)利用1990-2009年我国历史地震灾情数据,对地震烈度与人员死亡率之间进行线性拟合,建立适合我国地震灾害风险评估的震害人口死亡脆弱性曲线;(3)利用震害风险评估模型对我国各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行定量评估,并分析风险空间分布格局,彻底摸清Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下我国各县域单元的地震灾害人口死亡风险。研究表明:在不同地震烈度下,我国广大的东、中部地区面临更高的风险,而西部的人口死亡风险相对较低。高风险区域呈零星状分布于山东与江苏大部、安徽北部、黑龙江与吉林东部等人口分布较密集且孕灾环境发育完备的区域。而无风险区域在全国范围内呈斑块状散布,分布格局基本保持不变。  相似文献   

7.
An analysis of the Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 ( M = 6.6), based on teleseismic and near-source data, shows that it was a normal-faulting, intermediate-depth ( H = 50 ± 5 km) event. It was located about 30 km inland, within the subducted Cocos plate. The preferred fault plane has an azimuth of 130°, a dip of 79° and a rake of −86°. The rupture consisted of two subevents which were separated in time by about 2 s, with the second subevent occurring downdip of the first. The measured stress drop was relatively high, requiring a Δσ of about a kilobar to explain the high-frequency level of the near-source spectra. A rough estimate of the thickness of the seismogenic part of the oceanic lithosphere below Zihuatanejo, based on the depth and the rupture extent of this event, is 40 km.
This event and the Oaxaca earthquake of 1931 January 15 ( M = 7.8) are the two significant normal-faulting, intermediate-depth shocks whose epicentres are closest to the coast. Both of these earthquakes were preceded by several large to great shallow, low-angle thrust earthquakes, occurring updip. The observations in other subduction zones show just the opposite: normal-faulting events precede, not succeed, updip, thrust shocks. Indeed, the thrust events, soon after their occurrence, are expected to cause compression in the slab, thus inhibiting the occurrence of normal-faulting events. To explain the occurrence of the Zihuatanejo earthquake, we note that the Cocos plate, after an initial shallow-angle subduction, unbends and becomes subhorizontal. In the region of the unbending, the bottom of the slab is in horizontal extension. We speculate that the large updip seismic slip during shallow, low-angle thrust events increases the buckling of the slab, resulting in an incremental tensional stress at the bottom of the slab and causing normal-faulting earthquakes. This explanation may also hold for the 1931 Oaxaca event.  相似文献   

8.
An important question in seismic hazard assessments is the frequency-size and recurrence interval statistics at a point on a fault. Does a point on a fault obey the same statistics as earthquakes in a region do? This is a difficult question to answer because the number of repetitive earthquakes on a particular fault that have been observed is small. In order to overcome this difficulty we consider slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California. Sequences of up to 100 events are obtained from creepmeter records. We compare the statistical distribution of recurrence times with the Brownian passage-time, lognormal, and Weibull distributions and using goodness-of-fit tests find that the Weibull is the preferred distribution. We also consider the frequency–amplitude distribution of slip events. We find that the data clearly do not obey a Gutenberg–Richter distribution. Instead there is a uniform distribution of event sizes for a large fraction of events.  相似文献   

9.
The Benevento region is part of the southern Apennines seismogenic belt, which experienced large destructive seismic events both in historical and in recent times. The study area lies at the northern end of the Irpinia fault, which ruptured in 1980 with a Ms = 6.9 normal faulting event, which caused about 3000 casualties. The aims of this paper are to image lateral heterogeneities in the upper crust of the Benevento region, and to try to identify the fault segments that are expected to generate such large earthquakes. This work is motivated by the recognition that lithological heterogeneities along major fault zones, inferred from velocity anomalies, reflect the presence of fault patches that behave differently during large rupture episodes. In this paper, we define the crustal structure of the Benevento region by using the background seismicity recorded during 1991 and 1992 by a local seismic array. These data offer a unique opportunity to investigate the presence of structural discontinuities of a major seismogenic zone before the occurrence of the next large earthquake. The main result that we obtained is the delineation of two NW-trending high-velocity zones (HVZs) in the upper crust beneath the Matese limestone massif. These high velocities are interpreted as high-strength regions that extend for 30-40 km down to at least 12 km depth. The correspondence of these HVZs with the maximum intensity regions of historical earthquakes (1688 AD, 1805 AD) suggests that these anomalies delineate the extent of two fault segments of the southern Apenninic belt capable of generating M = 6.5−7 earthquakes. The lateral offset observed between the two segments from tomographic results and isoseismal areas is possibly related to transverse right-lateral faults.  相似文献   

10.
城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。  相似文献   

11.
Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue.  相似文献   

12.
What can be learned from rotational motions excited by earthquakes?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
One answer to the question posed in the title is that we will have more accurate data for arrival times of SH waves, because the rotational component around the vertical axis is sensitive to SH waves although not to P-SV waves. Importantly, there is another answer related to seismic sources, which will be discussed in this paper.
Generally, not only dislocations commonly used in earthquake models but also other kind of defects could contribute to producing seismic waves. In particular, rotational strains at earthquake sources directly generate rotational components in seismic waves. Employing the geometrical theory of defects, we obtain a general expression for the rotational motion of seismic waves as a function of the parameters of source defects.
Using this expression, together with one for translational motion, we can estimate the rotational strain tensor and the spatial variation of slip velocity in the source area of earthquakes. These quantities will be large at the edges of a fault plane due to spatially rapid changes of slip on the fault and/or a formation of tensile fractures.  相似文献   

13.
The Kunlun fault is one of the largest strike-slip faults in northern Tibet, China. In this paper, we focus upon the Kusai Lake–Kunlun Pass segment of the fault to understand the geomorphic development of offset streams caused by repeated large seismic events, based on tectono-geomorphic analysis of high-resolution satellite remote sensing images combined with field studies. The results indicate that systematic left-lateral stream offsets appear at various scales across the fault zone: Lateral offsets of small gullies caused by the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kunlun earthquake vary typically from 3 m to 6 m, meanwhile streams with cumulative offsets of 10 m, 25–30 m, 50–70 m, 250–300 m and 750–1400 m have resulted from repeated large seismic events during the late Quaternary. An average slip rate of 10 ± 1 mm/year has been estimated from the lateral stream offsets and 14C ages of alluvial fan surfaces incised by the streams. A three-dimensional model showing tectono-geomorphic features along a left-lateral strike-slip fault is also presented. The Kusai Lake–Kunlun Pass segment provides an opportunity to understand the relationship between geomorphic features produced by individual large seismic events and long-term geomorphic development caused by repeated large seismic events along a major strike-slip fault.  相似文献   

14.
Spatial distribution of earthquakes: the two-point correlation function   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
Summary. The distribution of distances between pairs of earthquake epicentres and hypocentres has been determined for four local and two world-wide catalogues. These spatial correlation functions shows that the number of events per unit volume at distance R from any earthquake is proportional to R -α, where a is close to 1.0 for shallow earthquakes and increases to 1.5 or possibly larger for deeper events. This distribution of earthquakes is independent of magnitude and independent of the dimensions of the region under consideration. These results place limits on possible models of earthquake fault geometries.  相似文献   

15.
In a tectonically active setting large earthquakes are always threats; however, they may also be useful in elucidating the subsurface geology. Instrumentally recorded seismicity is, therefore, widely utilized to extend our knowledge into the deeper crust, especially where basement is involved. It is because the earthquakes are triggered by underground stress changes that usually corresponding to the framework of geological structures. Hidden faults, therefore, can be recognized and their extension as well as orientation can be estimated. Both above are of relevance for assessment on seismic hazard of a region, since the active faults are supposed to be re-activated and cause large earthquakes. In this study, we analysed the 1999 October 22 earthquake sequence that occurred in southwestern Taiwan. Two major seismicity clusters were identified with spatial distribution between depths of 10 and 16 km. One cluster is nearly vertical and striking 032°, corresponding to the strike-slip Meishan fault (MSF) that generated the 1906 surface rupture. Another cluster strikes 190° and dips 64° to the west, which is interpreted as west-vergent reverse fault, in contrast to previous expectation of east vergence. Our analysis of the focal solutions of all the larger earthquakes in the 1999 sequence with the 3-D distribution of all the earthquakes over the period 1990–2004 allows us reinterpret the structural framework and suggest previously unreognized seismogenic sources in this area. We accordingly suggest: (1) multiple detachment faults are present in southwestern Taiwan coastal plain and (2) additional seismogenic sources consist of tear faults and backthrust faults in addition to sources associated with west-vergent fold-and-thrust belt.  相似文献   

16.
The magnitude and frequency of normal-fault palaeoearthquakes are usually determined by trenching studies that ascertain the size and number of colluvial wedges along the fault. Such information can be invaluable in predicting the seismic hazard and potential for a future earthquake in that region. Digging trenches across normal faults, however, is environmentally intrusive, expensive and limited in the penetration depth. To overcome these problems we propose the use of 3-D seismic tomography as a means to identify the shapes and sizes of colluvial wedges along normal faults. As an example,2-D and 3-D seismic surveys were conducted across the Oquirrh fault, Utah with the purpose of imaging the normal-fault structure to a depth of about 10  m. Results show that the 3-D tomogram clearly delineates the fault zone and a colluvial wedge, both of which correlate extremely well with the geological cross-section interpreted from an adjacent trench. The thickness of the colluvial wedge image is used in conjunction with a seismic section to compute an estimate of a 6.8 moment magnitude earthquake for the most recent event on this fault, which is in close agreement with the 7.0 estimate based on a nearby trenching study. These tomographic results demonstrate, for the first time, that seismic imaging methods can be used in some cases to estimate unambiguously the shapes of colluvial wedges and the sizes of prehistoric earthquakes. Thus, seismic tomography has the possibility of providing cheaper, deeper and wider, but less resolved, images of fault systems than the intrusive excavation of trenches across faults.  相似文献   

17.
Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.  相似文献   

18.
Summary . Quantitative comparison of dynamic parameters is made between stick—slip in the laboratory and earthquakes in the Earth. It is shown that the same theory is successfully applied for both earthquakes and stick—slip for rock samples for which slip occurs over the entire pre-existing fault, in so far as the physical processes of earthquakes are explained by the elastic rebound theory.  相似文献   

19.
Summary. The third occupation (experiment TDP3) of recording sites above a persistent swarm of microearthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault, with a larger seismic network and over a longer period of time, confirms and refines previous observations with greater resolution. The greater resolution in earthquake locations has revealed marked clustering in time and space. Many, perhaps most, of the earthquakes belong to clusters, where successive earthquakes originate in a very small volume and have similar fault mechanisms. Such studies allow the progression of seismic activity of small earthquakes to be followed in some detail, and may reveal features which are hidden in larger and more complex earthquake sequences.  相似文献   

20.
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