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1.
基于1960—2017年沈阳市5个气象观测站4—5月降水量资料,采用线性趋势法和累积距平分析了沈阳市春播期(4—5月)降水量演变特征,并分析首场透雨及最大连续无有效降水日数演变特征及对春播期降水量影响,对春播期降水量资源变化特征进行相关分析。结果表明:近58a沈阳春播期降水量整体呈现弱的增加趋势,平均每10a增加3.1mm,2004年开始降水量迅速增加,且波动性较大,降水量异常偏多或偏少年份较多,易诱发春旱春涝事件。春播期首场透雨出现日期平均每10a偏晚0.051d,首场透雨日期偏晚,将导致春播期前期雨水条件不足,引起土壤干旱,不利于春播开展。最大连续无有效降水日数呈波动性增加趋势,平均每10a增加0.56d,对4月降水量影响较大,虽然春播期降水资源总量增加,但存在降水资源时间分配不均的问题,且长时间无有效降水事件频发,将导致春播期干旱灾害事件发生风险加大,导致适播期延后。 相似文献
2.
在全球气候变化影响下,长白山区的降水量发生着显著的变化,降水强度也发生着不同程度的变化。明确长白山区不同等级降水的降水量和降水天数的变化趋势对于揭示长白山区水资源演变规律具有重要意义。本研究基于长白山区气象观测站点的逐日降水数据,选取不同等级降水指标,分析了1961～2018年长白山区不同等级降水时空变化特征。结果表明:近60年,长白山区年均降水量呈现不显著的下降趋势（?0.31 mm/a）,降水天数呈现显著的下降趋势（?0.16 mm/a）,平均降水强度呈现不显著的上升趋势。不同等级降水变化主要体现为:小雨、中雨和大雨年均降水量和降水天数呈现下降趋势,而暴雨年均降水量和降水天数呈现不显著的增加趋势。长白山区年均降水量和降水天数的减少主要受小雨、中雨和大雨降水量和降水天数的减少影响。不同季节降水变化方面,长白山区春冬季降水量呈增加趋势,夏季和秋季降水量和降水天数均呈下降趋势。 相似文献
3.
利用1957～2000年沈阳地区逐日平均气温、降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和Morlet小波变换等方法,分析了近44a来沈阳地区气温和降水变化的总体特征及趋势,并利用极端气温和降水指数探讨了其变化特征。结果表明:近44 a来沈阳地区气温呈显著的上升趋势,气温变化有较明显的突变特征,突变时间出现在1981～1982年;降水呈波动下降趋势,自20世纪80年代以来,极端降水事件的强度和频率均呈上升趋势。 相似文献
4.
该文利用大方国家一般气象站1961-2010年的地面观测资料,使用统计分析方法分析了大方县近50 a来气温、降水、日照、相对湿度的年际变化、季节变化及其变化特征.分析结果显示近50 a来大方县主要气象要素变化特征如下:年平均气温呈上升趋势,增温倾向率为0.15℃/10 a,比我国增温倾向率大,秋季对全年平均气温的上升贡献最大,夏季次之;年降水量呈减少趋势,减少倾向率为30.70 mm/10 a,比我国降水减少倾向率大,秋季对全年降水量的减少贡献最较大;年日照时数呈减少趋势,减少倾向率为45.17 h/10 a,夏季对日照时数的减少贡献最大,春季次之.总体来看,近50 a来秋季对年平均气温上升趋势和年降水量减少趋势的影响最大. 相似文献
5.
6.
根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。 相似文献
7.
三江源地区近50年降水变化分析 总被引：26，自引：1，他引：26
利用西北及三江源(黄河、金沙江及澜沧江)地区122个气象观测台站1956—2004年近50年的逐日降水量及月总降水量资料,分析了三江源地区降水变化特征。结果表明:近50年来三江源地区的年降水量呈减少趋势,减少幅度为6.73mm/10a;降水日数的趋势变化呈较为明显的减少趋势,递减率为2.7d/10a;平均降水强度总体呈弱的增强趋势,增强速率平均为0.20mm/d/10a,增强幅度比中国西北地区平均水平强;从4~9月最长无降水日数趋于增长反映出西北地区干旱化的趋势。 相似文献
8.
以1959—2008年克拉玛依市逐日降水资料为基础,采用线性趋势法、累积距平法、曼—肯德尔法、最大熵谱分析法等统计方法分析了克拉玛依近50 a的降水变化特征。结果表明:克拉玛依春、秋、冬三季及年降水量呈增加趋势,夏季降水量呈减少趋势;四季及年降水日数均呈减少趋势;从降水量级来看,R=0.0 mm的降水日数呈减少趋势,0.1 mm≤R≤4.9 mm、5.0 mm≤R≤9.9 mm、10.0 mm≤R≤24.9 mm、R≥25 mm的降水日数呈增加趋势(注:R为日降水量)。年降水量以12.9 a、8.3 a、2.9 a为主要周期,1987年为突变点,极端降水事件有增加的趋势。 相似文献
9.
近58年柳州市汛期降水特征分析 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
利用柳州市1951～2008年的月降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计和小波分析方法,分析了近58a柳州市汛期（4～9月）降水的变化特征。结果表明：近58a来柳州市汛期降水主要呈波动性变化,线性趋势变化不明显,但前汛期降水总体呈上升趋势,降水量约增加87mm;后汛期降水量总体呈下降趋势,约减少了89mm。因此,前汛期有变涝趋势,后汛期有变旱趋势。近58年柳州市汛期降水年代际变化的主要周期为20～25a,20世纪80年代以后,汛期降水存在周期10-15a的年代际变化。20世纪80年代以前,柳州市汛期降水主要的年际变化周期2～4a,以后的年际变化周期是4～8a。 相似文献
10.
渭河上游干旱特征与降水对天水市水资源的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
文中利用气象和水文观测资料。分析了渭河上游50a的干旱特征及降水对天水市水资源的影响，分析表明，渭河上游年降水在空间上有量的差异，但在气候变化趋势上基本一致；降水量存在17、13、11和3a的周期；水资源对气候变化有很强的敏感性。岷县降水量的年际变化对渭河水资源变化有很强的指示性；气候阶段性变化比年际变化对水资源所造成的影响严重；未来20a渭河流域降水很可能呈缓慢上升趋势。 相似文献
11.
兰江流域近43年气候变化及对水资源的影响 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用累积距平法对兰江流域近43年（1961-2003年）气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析，研究兰江流域气候变化及其气候变化对水资源的影响。结果显示：兰江流域近43年来气温、降水量总的趋势是上升的；1990年代是兰江流域气温上升和降水增加最显著的时段，主要表现在冬春气温明显上升，夏季降水量明显增加：兰江流域年径流深与年降水量基本保持同步变化。兰江流域过去43年的气候变化对流域内水资源产生了较大的影响，而且由于兰江流域内水资源空间分布差异较大，致使流域内人均水资源占有量较少的金华地区易受气候变化影响而出现供水紧张。 相似文献
12.
气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文回顾了西北干旱区气候变化事实及其对水资源影响的最新研究进展,从气候变化和人类活动两个角度综述了水资源变化的原因,以及未来西北干旱区水资源变化与适应对策。研究表明：1961年以来西北干旱区呈现明显暖湿化趋势,其中冬季增温最快,夏季降水增加速率最大。伊利河谷、塔城等地区增温趋势最大,北疆降水量增加最多。受气候变暖导致冰雪快速消融和山区降水增加的影响,西北干旱区西部河流黑河、疏勒河、塔里木河出山口径流量显著增加。由于东部河流石羊河径流的补给主要靠降水,降水的减少导致径流呈现下降趋势。不合理人类活动造成石羊河、黑河和开都河中下游径流减少。本文提出了西北干旱区亟待深入研究的任务：极端天气气候事件的变化规律及其对水资源影响;未来气候变化和水资源的预估;气候变化归因研究;气候变化-社会经济活动一体化适应策略选择;水资源科学合理定量分配等。 相似文献
13.
Qiang Zhang Juntai Peng Chong-Yu Xu Vijay P. Singh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):703-712
Daily precipitation data during the period of 1960 to 2005 from 147 rain gauging stations over the Yangtze River Basin are analyzed to investigate precipitation variations based on precipitation indices and also consecutive rainfall regimes in both space and time. Results indicate decreasing annual/monthly mean precipitation. Distinct decreases in rainfall days are observed over most parts of the Yangtze River Basin, but precipitation intensity is increasing over most parts of the Yangtze River Basin, particularly the lower Yangtze River Basin. Besides, durations of precipitation regimes are shortening; however, the fractional contribution of short-lasting precipitation regimes to the total precipitation amount is increasing. In this sense, the precipitation processes in the Yangtze River Basin are dominated by precipitation regimes of shorter durations. These results indicate intensified hydrological cycle reflected by shortening precipitation regimes. This finding is different from that in Europe where the intensifying precipitation changes are reflected mainly by lengthening precipitation regimes, implying different regional responses of hydrological cycle to climate changes. The results of this study will be of considerable relevance in basin-scale water resources management, human mitigation of natural hazards, and in understanding regional hydrological responses to changing climate at regional scales. 相似文献
14.
利用累积距平法和气候倾向率对1961－2005年嫩江流域右岸气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析,研究嫩江流域右岸气候变化及其对水资源的影响。结果表明：近45 a来嫩江流域右岸气温显著增高,平均以0.52 ℃/10 a的速率上升,而且四季均为上升趋势, 不同季节增温幅度以冬、春、秋、夏季依次递减,1986年以来为气温升高最显著的时段;降水变化可分为3个阶段： 1961－1982年降水量呈减少趋势,1982－1998年处于增加时期,1998年以来降水量又呈现减少趋势。夏季降水量变化趋势与年降水量变化趋势趋于一致, 降水量总趋势是在波动中微弱上升;嫩江流域右岸主要控制站年径流量与年降水量保持同步变化。 相似文献
15.
枯季是水旱、水生态和水资源问题的重要时期,枯季径流的变化直接影响着河流生态和流域水资源管理。基于中国网格气象数据和主要江河枯季径流资料,初步分析了1961—2018年中国气候变化趋势和主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因。结果表明,全国枯季平均气温显著上升,北方地区升温较早,南方地区2001—2018年升温明显。全国约84%的地区枯季降水有增加趋势,其中约42.2%的地区增加显著;全国枯季降水呈现西北、东北和东南显著增加,中部变化不显著格局。黄河中游和海河枯季径流下降显著,2001—2018年黄河中游枯季径流较1961—1980年减少了34%,同时期海河流域枯季径流量减少幅度均超过80%;松花江上游和长江流域枯季径流增加显著,2001—2018年松花江上游枯季径流量增加了约67%,长江流域枯季径流量增加了约16%。枯季降水增加主导了松花江上游、辽河、淮河、长江以及珠江枯季径流的增加;气温的显著上升对黄河中游和海河等地枯季径流有显著负向作用;人类活动是松花江中游、黄河和海河枯季径流下降的主要影响因素。尽管全国枯季降水的增加对于缓解流域生态和水资源问题有积极作用,但人类活动和气温显著上升加速了水资源的消耗,加大了流域水资源脆弱性。 相似文献
16.
本文对近年来长江源区的气候变化及水资源变化特征研究进行了概述与总结.结果表明：长江源区气候变化特征表现为,从20世纪60年代以来,长江源区年及四季气温呈显著增温趋势;水面和陆面蒸发量均呈增加趋势;进入21世纪后,长江源区降水量呈增加趋势.水资源变化特征表现为,冰川出现普遍的退缩现象;湿地退化明显;21世纪前长江源区径流量总体上呈明显的递减趋势,而在最近10多年水资源量有明显增多现象,其原因可能是近10多年长江源区气温显著增加,导致更多冰川融化,同时进入21世纪后长江源区降水增加.预计未来到2050年,长江源区气温将升高,降水将增加,冰川面积将减少,地表水资源仍有可能以增加为主. 相似文献
17.
长江源区气候及水资源变化特征研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文对近年来长江源区的气候变化及水资源变化特征研究进行了概述与总结。结果表明:长江源区气候变化特征表现为,从20世纪60年代以来,长江源区年及四季气温呈显著增温趋势;水面和陆面蒸发量均呈增加趋势;进入21世纪后,长江源区降水量呈增加趋势。水资源变化特征表现为,冰川出现普遍的退缩现象;湿地退化明显;21世纪前长江源区径流量总体上呈明显的递减趋势,而在最近10多年水资源量有明显增多现象,其原因可能是近10多年长江源区气温显著增加,导致更多冰川融化,同时进入21世纪后长江源区降水增加。预计未来到2050年,长江源区气温将升高,降水将增加,冰川面积将减少,地表水资源仍有可能以增加为主。 相似文献
18.
Impact of recent climate change on the hydrology of coastal Mediterranean rivers in Southern France 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the regional impact of recent climate change on the water resources in southern France. We produced spatial reconstructions of the monthly evolutions of temperature, precipitation and water discharge in 15 watersheds of six coastal river basins and examined the major changes based on trend analysis for the last 40 years. In this part of the Mediterranean, the general warming trend was strongly enhanced by changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, characterized by a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure domain during spring and summer. During these seasons, monthly warming rates could achieve almost twice the mean annual warming rates. Although annual precipitation did not follow clear trends, water discharge significantly decreased in one third of the watersheds and accounted for an estimated 20% reduction of the water resources in this region. This concerns both the highest and lowest watersheds. In the former, the reduction is likely the result of a temperature induced switch of snowfall to rainfall at high altitudes. In the latter, the reduction of discharge seems to come from lower groundwater levels, which may be related to the temperature increase too, but also have other origins. The recent climatic evolution is consistent with most modelling simulations for the future, indicating that the reduction of the water resources will hold on, probably still enhanced by decreases in precipitation. 相似文献
19.
Dennis P. Lettenmaier Andrew W. Wood Richard N. Palmer Eric F. Wood Eugene Z. Stakhiv 《Climatic change》1999,43(3):537-579
The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO2 scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO2 scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons. 相似文献
20.
This study intends to disclose orographic effects on climate and climatic impacts on hydrological regimes in Qinling Mountains under global change background. We integrate a meteorological model (MM5 model, PSU/NCAR, 2005) and a hydrological model (SWAT model, 2005) to couple hydrological dynamic with climate change in Qinling Mountains. Models are calibrated and validated based on the simulation of different combined schemes. Following findings were achieved. Firstly, Qinling Mountains dominantly influence climate, and hydrological process in Weihe River and upper Hanjiang River. Results show that Qinling Mountains lead to a strong north–south gradient precipitation distribution over Qinling Mountains due to orographic effects, and it reduces precipitation from 10–25 mm (December) to 55–80 mm (August) in Weihe River basin, and adds 25–50 mm (December) or 65–112 mm (August) in upper Hanjiang River basin; evapotranspiration (ET) decrease of 21% in Weihe River (August) and increase 10.5% in upper Hanjiang River (July). The Qinling Mountains reduce water yields of 23.5% in Weihe River, and decrease of 11.3% in upper Hanjiang River. Secondly, climate change is responsible for the changes of coupling effects of rainfall, land use and cover, river flow and water resources. It shows that average temperature significantly increased, and precipitation substantially reduced which leads to hydrological process changed greatly from 1950 to 2005: temperature increased and precipitation decreased, climate became drier in the past two decades (1980–2005), high levels of precipitation exists in mid-1950, mid-1970, while other studied periods are in low level states. The inter-annual variation in water yield correlates with surface runoff with an R 2 value of 0.63 (Weihe River) and 0.87 (upper Hanjiang River). It shows that variation of annual precipitation was smaller than that of seasonal precipitation. 相似文献