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1.
This work aims to compile knowledge on ecologically rich habitats that deserve special protection in the Mediterranean high seas. Many marine ecosystems are currently threatened by fishing activities, such as bottom trawling, gillnets and demersal and pelagic long-lines. Especially vulnerable are areas described as either sensitive habitats or essential fish habitats. Among these we highlight the associations of sessile organisms, such as cold coral reefs, mostly detected on continental slopes, seamounts and on the walls of submarine canyons, and those areas considered as hot spots of diversity and habitat of vulnerable fauna, like cold seeps, hydrothermal vents and submarine canyons. Essential habitats for pelagic species are defined by oceanographic features like productive areas associated with upwelling, and in the Mediterranean the spawning areas and migratory routes of bluefin tuna, swordfish, and albacore are of high conservation interest. We propose that in a context of difficult fisheries management in Mediterranean international waters, or high seas, these vulnerable habitats should be protected through the establishment of a web of Marine Protected Areas coordinated by all the involved countries and controlled by strict surveillance. 相似文献
2.
Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure. 相似文献
3.
Bluefin tuna fishery policy in Malta: The plight of artisanal fishermen caught in the capitalist net
《Marine Policy》2016
The bluefin tuna fishery has undergone a major shift in Malta, moving from an open access artisanal nature to a privatized and industrialized activity dominated by the purse seining fleet and the BFT ranching industry. The shift has been exacerbated by the national implementation of an individual transferable quota system, which has enabled the concertation of quotas into fewer hands. The main objective of this article is to understand how privatization has evolved within the sector and the way the Maltese artisanal fishermen are experiencing the shift. This study takes an exploratory mixed-method approach to quantitatively and qualitatively understand how policy underpinnings interplay with the sustainability dimension of the small-scale fishing sector. Results show that the transition of the bluefin tuna fishery from artisanal to industrial has generated a legitimacy crisis over fishing rights, decreased profitability amongst most of the artisanal fleet, and led to a series of socio-ecological impacts on the artisanal fisheries system at large. It is concluded that the neo-liberal trajectories of industrialization have directly undermined the continued sustainability of artisanal fishing communities. 相似文献
4.
Selecting indicators of the response of the benthic community to fishing effort restrictions is important for testing the efficacy of management actions that seek to minimise ecosystem degradation. Components of epifaunal communities are sensitive to trawling, and concordant measurements of trawling effort can be used to establish a link between response and impact variables. Trawling effort on Mediterranean fishing grounds can be assessed, but the lack of data from communities inhabiting these areas makes establishing the response–impact relationship difficult. This study addresses this challenge by investigating benthic communities from the NW Mediterranean subjected to a gradient of fishing effort, and confirms that indicators based on functional components of epibenthos can be a useful tool to describe the response of communities to disturbance across habitat types. 相似文献
5.
An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios. 相似文献
6.
Ovarian tissue samples of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT) spawners (n = 49) caught by purse seine in the Balearic Sea (western Mediterranean) were used to assess the stock reproductive characteristics. The frequency of spawning females estimated by the postovulatory follicle method was 84% and the spawning periodicity 1.2 days. Using an unbiased stereological method, the realized batch fecundity was estimated from counts of postovulatory follicles (POFs), whereas the batch fecundity of the subsequent spawn was estimated by quantification of the number of follicles containing oocytes at maturation stage (OMFs). The number of POFs was used as a reliable proxy of the realized batch fecundity, as it represents the actual number of eggs released in the last spawning event. The average relative realized batch fecundity was estimated to be approximately 48 eggs g− 1 of total body mass. While the absolute batch fecundity was isometrically related to the fork length, the relative batch fecundity was not dependent on fish size, which leads to the assumption that all length classes contribute proportionally to their size, towards the total number of eggs spawned by the broodstock. Size-related variations in the sex ratio were observed in the study area and in other Mediterranean locations; females were more abundant in mid-size classes while males predominated in large-size classes. 相似文献
7.
Nephrops norvegicus is an essentially sedentary species of lobster that forms the basis of valuable fisheries in the northwest Atlantic and western Mediterranean. Fishers exploiting a sedentary stock are likely to visit the most profitable (highest catch rate) areas first. Such spatial targeting of fishing effort is likely to have important consequences for stock monitoring and assessment. We used underwater television surveys of Nephrops burrow densities on the Farn Deeps grounds, northeast England, to describe changes in abundance and distribution between the beginning and end of a winter fishing season. Above a threshold of c. 0.6 burrows m–2, overwinter depletion increased with burrow density, consistent with fishing effort being targeted at the highest densities. A simple simulation model showed that this pattern of mortality is an expected consequence of spatially targeted fishing behaviour. The model also predicted that there is decreased spatial variability in density after fishing. An overall decrease in variability was not evident from the survey data, but geostatistical analysis indicated that there was “flattening” of the density profile along a north‐south axis, consistent with the dominant direction of commercial trawling. We concluded that Nephrops fishers are able to find and exploit the highest densities of their target species. A potential consequence is that catch per unit effort (CPUE) data used to monitor trends in this stock potentially could mask declines in stock abundance. CPUE might be more effective if analysed at finer spatial scales, but this is not currently possible. In the absence of these fine scale commercial data, fishery‐independent surveys (e.g., underwater television) are an important source of information on trends in stock abundance. 相似文献
8.
中西太平洋延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼渔场时空分布与温跃层关系 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
为了解热带中西太平洋延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)适宜的温跃层参数分布区间,采用Argo浮标温度信息和中西太平洋渔业委员会(The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission,WCPFC)的黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔获数据,绘制了热带中西太平洋月平均温跃层特征参数和月平均CPUE的空间叠加图,用于分析热带中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场时空分布和温跃层特征参数间的关系。分析结果表明:热带中西太平洋温跃层上界深度、温度具有明显的季节性变化,而温跃层下界深度、温度季节性变化不明显,黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场分布和温跃层季节性变化有关。全年中心渔场的位置分布在温跃层上界深度高值区域,随温跃层上界深度高值区域季节性南北移动。在新几内亚以东纬向区域(5°N~10°S,150°E~170°W)上界深度值全年都在70~100m之间,全年都是延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场。中心渔场上界温度多在26℃以上,但是在上界温度超过30℃区域,CPUE值较小。中心渔场主要分布在温跃层下界深度两条高值带之间区域,在温跃层下界深度超过300m和小于150m区域,CPUE值均偏低。中心渔场主要分布在下界温度低于13℃区域,下界温度超过17℃难以形成中心渔场。频次分析和经验累积分布函数计算其适宜温跃层特征参数分布,得出中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼适宜的温跃层上界温度和深度分别是27~29.9℃和70~109m;适宜的温跃层下界温度和深度分别是11~13.9℃和250~299m。文章初步得出中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场温跃层各特征参数的适宜分布区间及季节变化特征,为我国金枪鱼实际生产作业提供技术支持。 相似文献
9.
黄鳍金枪鱼索饵水层影响延绳钓捕捞效率,而黄鳍金枪鱼索饵水层分布受水温垂直结构的影响,因此本文采用GAM模型分析次表层环境变量对延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼渔获率的影响,评估黄鳍金枪鱼垂直水层分布对中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch Per Unite Effort, CPUE)的作用。模型结果表明,环境因子对热带中西太平洋延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼渔获率空间分布影响明显。黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓CPUE在2012年之后快速增多,高渔获率月份出现在北半球夏季,空间上在10°S,140°E附近区域。温跃层上界温度和深度、温跃层下界深度、18℃等温线深度、△8℃等温线深度及其和温跃层下界深度的深度差对延绳钓渔获率影响较大,是影响热带中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔获率的关键环境因子。随着温跃层上界温度和深度值变大,延绳钓CPUE逐渐递增,对延绳钓CPUE影响密切的温度和深度分别为27～28℃和70～90 m。温跃层下界深度对延绳钓CPUE影响在250～280 m时最大;之后随着下界深度的变大,CPUE快速下降。18℃等温线深度对延绳钓CPUE影响呈现先震荡后递增的趋势,影响密切的区域在230 m深度上下。△8℃等温线深度与温跃层下界深度的差值对热带中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓CPUE影响呈现先快速递减后缓慢增加的趋势,在深度差为70 m上下时影响最密切。研究结果揭示,在黄鳍金枪鱼活动水层受限或栖息水层和延绳钓作业深度相吻合时,延绳钓渔获率最高。依据黄鳍金枪鱼垂直活动水层调整延绳钓投钩,可以提高渔获率。因此,采用延绳钓CPUE进行渔场和资源评估时要考虑金枪鱼适宜垂直活动空间。 相似文献
10.
The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. 相似文献
11.
《Marine Policy》2014
The recent overexploitation of East Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna stock has been well documented in the media where it has become the archetype of overfishing and general mis-management. Beyond the public debate, the crisis also highlighted how the interactions between science and management can change through time according to the awareness of the public opinion. To reflect these issues, the history of Atlantic bluefin tuna overfishing is first described. Then, the major uncertainties that undermine the current scientific advice are summarized and the importance of reducing their impacts by improving knowledge and developing robust scientific framework is considered. The study also discusses how uncertainty was used by different lobbies to discredit science-based management. The recent improvement in bluefin tuna stock status following the implementation of the rebuilding plan shows that, despite uncertainty in the scientific advice, the management of a heavily exploited fish stock can be positive when there is a political will. However, optimizing long-term yields of modern fisheries implies good science. The study concludes by advocating for the implementation of a scientific quota that should be part of the management framework to support the scientific advice. 相似文献
12.
During 1995–2011, annual production of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii for Chinese squidjigging fishery has greatly fluctuated, which is closely related to the environmental conditions on the spawning and fishing grounds. To better understand how squid recruitment and abundance were influenced by ocean environmental conditions, biological and physical environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST), SST anomaly(SSTA), chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration and the Kuroshio Current were examined during years with the highest(1999), intermediate(2005), and lowest(2009) catches. Catch per unit effort(CPUE) of the squid-jigging vessels was used as an indicator of squid abundance. The results indicated that high SST and Chl a concentration on the spawning ground in 1999 resulted in favorable incubation and feeding conditions for squid recruitment. Whereas the suitable spawning zone(SSZ) in 2009 shifted southward and coincided with low SST and Chl a concentration, resulting in a reduction in the squid recruitment. The small difference of SSZ area in the three years suggested the SSZ provided limited influences on the variability in squid recruitment. Furthermore,high squid abundance in 1999 and 2005 was associated with warm SSTA on the fishing ground. While the cool SSTA on the fishing ground in 2009 contributed to adverse habitat for the squid, leading to extremely low abundance. It was inferred that strengthened intensity of the Kuroshio force generally yielded favorable environmental conditions for O. bartramii. Future research are suggested to focus on the fundamental research on the early life stage of O. bartramii and mechanism of how the ocean-climate variability affects the squid abundance and spatial distribution by coupling physical model with squid biological process to explore transport path and abundance distribution. 相似文献
13.
Biomarkers for endocrine disruptors in three species of Mediterranean large pelagic fish 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Fossi MC Casini S Marsili L Neri G Mori G Ancora S Moscatelli A Ausili A Notarbartolo-di-Sciara G 《Marine environmental research》2002,54(3-5):667-671
The hypothesis that Mediterranean top predator species, such as large pelagic fish, are potentially at risk due to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), is investigated. The potential estrogenic effects of PHAHs in three fish species of commercial interest, the top predators bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and Mediterranean spearfish (Tetrapturus belone), were investigated using vitellogenin (Vtg), zona radiata proteins (Zrp) and mixed function oxidases (EROD, BPMO) as diagnostic tools. High induction of Vtg and Zrp was detected by western blot and ELISA techniques in adult males of X. gladius and T. thynnus thynnus, suggesting that these species are at high toxicological risk in the Mediterranean sea. Comparison of BPMO and EROD activities in the three species indicated, both in male and female, much higher MFO activity in bluefin tuna. This data suggests high exposure of this species to lipophilic xenobiotic contaminants in the Mediterranean environment. 相似文献
14.
James Kennedy Jon Egil Skjraasen Richard D.M. Nash Aril Slotte Audrey J. Geffen Olav S. Kjesbu 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(3):327-332
Based upon an under-representation of second time spawners on the spawning grounds between 1935 and 1973, researchers have suggested that Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus) frequently skip their second spawning event. In order to evaluate this claim with direct evidence, herring were collected over a period of three years from statutory surveys and commercial catches over a wide area covering the feeding, over-wintering and spawning grounds. The development stage of the ovaries was assessed and the intensity of atresia quantified. Only a negligible number of the analysed herring caught were considered likely to skip spawning, thus this phenomenon does not appear to be a common feature of the NSS herring stock at present. In addition, considering the reproductive strategy of herring, it seems doubtful that skipping the second spawning event has ever frequently occurred in this stock. 相似文献
15.
Assessment of IUU fishing for Southern Bluefin Tuna 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is recognized as one of the largest threats to the sustainability of the world's fisheries. This paper focuses on IUU fishing in the context of unreported catches by members or co-operating non-members of regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) and their implications for scientific assessments of stock status and management advice. A review of Japanese market statistics was undertaken in 2006 by an independent panel in relation to catches of southern bluefin tuna (SBT). Based on this review, the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) concluded that very substantial and continuous unreported catches of SBT had been taken by longline vessels since at least the early 1990s. While uncertainty exists about the fleets contributing to these IUU catches, the assumption used within the CCSBT Scientific Committee is that a significant proportion of these were taken by Japanese longliners. Implications of these unreported catches for the stock assessments by RFMOs are discussed in light of the central role that Japanese vessel reported data have in the assessment of the world's tuna and billfish stocks. Results indicate that it is plausible that the unreported catches of SBT stem from the misreporting of catches as other tuna species and/or the location of fishing effort. The magnitude and extended period of the unreported SBT catches highlight the wide-spread risks of relying on fishery dependent logbook data in the absence of verification. An urgent need exists for minimum standards of verification of catch, effort and landing statistics for use in scientific assessments. The fisheries science community needs to be more pro-active in the development of such standards and the implementation of independent monitoring and verification. In addition, there is a need to reform the operation of the scientific bodies of RFMOs in terms of transparency, the treatment of uncertainty and the burden of proof if they are to be effective in providing objective scientific advice consistent with the intent of international agreements. 相似文献
16.
基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
鲐鱼Scomber japonicus资源丰富,在我国近海渔业中占有重要地位。其渔场的形成受海洋环境的制约,本文确定鲐鱼运动和物理环境之间的响应关系,建立起了基于个体的东海鲐鱼生长洄游模型。结果显示,鲐鱼集群分布与捕捞生产渔场基本吻合,鲐鱼聚集主要受台湾暖流、大陆沿岸水、黑潮影响,往往集群在一定温度范围内并在冷暖交汇区温盐梯度大偏暖水一侧。在台湾暖流和沿岸水交汇的锋面附近、台湾暖流暖水舌前端、黑潮与中国大陆沿岸水形成的潮境区域均有大量的鲐鱼聚集,并形成渔场。产卵位置的变动使偏西产卵位置的鲐鱼由于受台湾暖流影响较大,鲐鱼会呈长带状大量聚集在台湾暖流和沿岸水的锋面附近,并使在台湾暖流暖水舌前端的聚集数量增多,而偏东的产卵的鲐鱼受黑潮影响较大,聚集分布范围较大,会使黑潮形成的锋面附近聚集数量增多,而使台湾暖水舌的前端的聚集量减少。正常产卵位置在生存率方面是最佳产卵位置。研究表明鲐鱼所处空间位置不同,会影响其集群的位置,用数值模型验证了物理环境会对鲐鱼的洄游和渔场的形成产生影响。 相似文献
17.
The biological oceanography of the East Australian Current and surrounding waters in relation to tuna and billfish catches off eastern Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J.W. Young A.J. HobdayR.A. Campbell R.J. KloserP.I. Bonham L.A. ClementsonM.J. Lansdell 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2011,58(5):720-733
The surface and sub-surface biological oceanography of tuna fishing grounds within the East Australian Current (EAC) was compared in 2004 with two other fishing areas further offshore. Our aim was to determine whether the biological oceanography of the region could explain the distribution and intensity of pelagic fishery catches inside and outside the EAC at that time. The EAC fishing area was noticeably warmer, less saline and lower in nutrients than waters in the other fishing areas. The EAC waters were dominated by large diatoms, the biomass of which was significantly higher than in the seamount and offshore areas, apparently the result of a cold core eddy beneath the EAC surface filament. Over the seamount and offshore more typical Tasman Sea waters prevailed, although the presence of a relatively deeper oxygen minimum layer over the seamount suggested topographically induced mixing in the area. Notably, sub-surface zooplankton and micronekton biomass was significantly higher around the seamount than in the two other areas. The offshore region was characterised by frontal activity associated with the Tasman front. Micronekton net biomass was generally highest in surface waters in this region. Examination of tuna catch records at that time showed yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) dominated the catches of the EAC, whereas swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) were the main species caught offshore. We suggest the yellowfin tuna concentrate in waters that are not only warmer but where prey species are concentrated near the surface. Offshore, deeper living species such as swordfish and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) can take advantage of prey species that are distributed deeper in the water column and along the flanks of the many seamounts in the region, or that are concentrated at fronts associated with the Tasman Front. Although only a snapshot of the region, relatively consistent catch data over time suggests the underlying biological oceanography may persist over longer time periods, particularly during the Austral spring. 相似文献
18.
不同环境因子权重对东海鲐鱼栖息地模型的影响研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
鲐鱼（Scomber japonicus）是栖息在西太平洋沿岸的中上层鱼类,了解其栖息地分布及其与海洋环境因子的关系有助于合理开发和管理该资源。本文根据2003-2011年7-9月中国东海鲐鱼的生产数据,采用正态分布函数分别构建海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）、海表温梯度（gradient of sea surface temperature,GSST）和海表面高度（sea surface height,SSH）与作业次数的适应性指数（suitability index,SI）,基于不同权重的算术平均法（arithmetic weighted model,AWM）分别建立栖息地指数（habitat suitability index,HSI）模型,并用2012年7-9月生产数据进行验证。结果显示,7、8、9月各月最佳HSI模型的SST、STG和SSH的权重分别为0.5、0.25、0.25,0.8、0.1、0.1和0、1.0、0,利用2012年7-9月生产数据与环境数据对各月份最佳权重HSI模型进行验证,在HSI>0.6的海域,7、8、9月各月作业次数比重和产量比重分别为85.87%和92.55%,76.74%和86.69%,51.83%和56.11%。研究表明,不同月份的环境因子对鲐鱼渔场分布的影响程度不同,本研究为更好地预测鲐鱼栖息地奠定了基础。 相似文献
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海洋环境因子对澳洲鲐亲体补充量关系的影响——基于贝叶斯模型平均法的研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
澳洲鲐（Scomber australasicus）是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类,生命周期相对较短,资源量受补充量影响明显,了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1（30°~32°N,130°~132°E）海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST1）、产卵场2（34°~35°N,138°~141°E）海表面温度（SST2）、索饵场（35°~45°N,140°~160°E）海表面温度（SST3）、潮位差（tidal range,TR）、太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）和亲体量（spawning stock biomass,SSB）6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型,运用贝叶斯模型平均法（Bayesian model averaging,BMA）分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力,并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明,SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力,其次是SST3,PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子,可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长,索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为,基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势,优于单一模型,可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。 相似文献