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1.
Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events. 相似文献
2.
大气科学发展的回顾与展望 总被引：13，自引：5，他引：13
回顾了20世纪大气科学的发展历程和所取得的重要成就。就20世纪这100年中大气探测技术、大气环流与大尺度动力学、数值天气预报和大气环流数值试验、大气物理、中小尺度气象学、大气环境和大气化学、中层大气、气候系统动力学、气候预测和全球变化等方面所取得重要研究进展和学术成就作了系统的回顾；并对21世纪初大气科学研究发展的趋势作了展望。 相似文献
3.
Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed. 相似文献
4.
中国气象科学技术发展战略研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
依据《中国气象事业发展战略研究重大科学技术问题卷》［1］的概述,主要从天气学理论与预报技术、气候系统与全球变化、人工影响天气、大气化学、大气物理学,以及综合探测技术与外场观测试验等方面,分析气象科学发展的背景、现状和社会需求,指出气象科学发展中需要了解的关键科学和技术问题,并制定中国气象科学技术长期发展目标和确定重点研究领域,其中特别强调了与中国区域天气、气候和气候变化问题关系密切的气象科学问题,并在气象科学理论体系的建立、天气预报和气候预测手段的改进、全球气候系统观测的实施、多学科的交叉融合等方面提出措施和建议。 相似文献
5.
煤矿智能化是煤炭行业实现可持续发展的重要途径,为煤矿企业减人增效、安全生产提供有效保障,大数据、机器人、人工智能等新一代信息技术有力支撑了煤矿智能化建设。首先阐述了智慧矿山的设计思路,提出了智能化建设总体技术体系。然后,分析了通用异构型控制和数据处理平台、矿用巡检机器人技术、人工智能技术、故障诊断技术和智能穿戴等煤矿智能化关键技术的发展现状与趋势,梳理了智能化建设应用过程中存在的关键难题,并针对瓶颈问题提出了解决方法与未来发展趋势。研究基于模块化开发的通用异构型控制和数据处理平台,实现了底层终端的可重构和底层通信协议的统一,解决了数据孤岛问题;研究巡检机器人驱动模块监测、运动控制与精确定位等关键技术,基于多传感器融合技术实现机器人精确定位;研究人工智能技术在煤矿场景应用中缺少典型数据和与场景知识结合的问题,提出小样本学习技术有望推动人工智能技术在煤矿智能化领域的进一步落地应用;研究煤矿设备故障诊断技术,提出构建基于数据和知识混合驱动的设备故障诊断模型将有效解决过度维修和欠维修的问题;智能穿戴技术是解决井下关键岗位作业人员防护问题的关键,提出了由呼吸系统、传感监测系统、人机交互系统、语音... 相似文献
6.
大气科学优先资助领域的计量学初步分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
依据对国内大气科学相关机构进行广泛调研获取的数据,以及近期国内、国际有关大气科学期刊论文数据,通过计量学方法,按照国内基础、国内热点、国际热点和国内需求四个方面从不同角度对大气科学优先资助领域进行了分析,并根据不同政策偏好设置权重对大气科学各领域进行了排序。分析表明,不论是偏重于基础研究还是偏重于应用研究,优先资助人工影响天气和大气物理领域可能会获得更大的回报;若重视科学热点、科技前沿,优先资助气候系统与全球变化和天气动力学理论与天气预报领域可能会取得更多的研究成果;若重视发展需求与科技前沿相结合,优先资助大气化学和综合探测系统领域投入资金可能会发挥更大的效益。研究结果可以为更好地了解我国大气科学发展现状,制定大气科学中长期发展战略,制定大气科学“十一五”优先资助领域战略提供一定的参考依据。 相似文献
7.
As the important components of the earth’s atmospheric system, cloud and precipitation strongly affect the global hydrology and energy cycles through the interaction of solar and infrared radiation with cloud droplets and the release of latent heat in precipitation development. The microwave observations in cloudy and rainy conditions have a large amount of information closely related to the development of weather systems, especially the severe weather systems like typhoon and rainstorm. Nevertheless, satellite microwave observations are usually only assimilated in clear-sky above the ocean and their cloud and precipitation content is discarded. Over the past two decades, several Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have gradually developed the “all-sky” approach to make use of the cloud- and precipitation-affected microwave radiances. It’s been proved that the all-sky assimilation can be used to improve the first guessed mass, wind, humidity, cloud and precipitation through the tracer effect. For providing an investigated reference for the future research of all-weather assimilation in domestic numerical weather forecast, this paper reviewed the all-sky assimilation methods using microwave observation data, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and discussed the key technical problems and the existing difficulties and challenges in this field. With the development and application of the new generation of NWP model in China, advancing the domestic research of all-weather data assimilation technology will bring more scientific and practical benefits in the future. 相似文献
8.
大气动力学方程组全局分析的研究进展 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
把天气预报问题提成初值问题的反问题,可以使用多时刻的历史资料去补充和完善数值预报模式。借助于几何直观可以对大气动力学方程组的极限解集进行全局定性分析,运用胞 概念和方法可以对大气的数值模式的整体特征进行了全局分析和借助概率论的语言进行统计描述。还给出“气候”这个模糊概念的严格的数学定义及定量研究大气可预测性问题的途径。全局分析是研究气候不同于简单初值问题的另一条道路。综述了这方面研究的最新进展。 相似文献
9.
得益于计算机技术、人工智能技术、多媒体技术、传感器技术等的迅速发展,虚拟仿真在科学领域已经得到了广泛的应用并具有巨大的市场需求。在地质学中,国内外高校已经将虚拟仿真技术应用到教学中,使其打破了传统教学的时空限制。但目前虚拟仿真在该领域的应用还存在场景内容欠缺,交互感不足,细节展示不够等问题。为能够进一步拓展虚拟仿真技术在地质学中的应用思路,文章对虚拟仿真技术在多个科学学科中的应用情况进行研究,介绍了面向地学的综合型、国际化的沉浸式虚拟仿真实验室实例。综合型的地学虚拟仿真实验室的建立,将深度融合地学与虚拟仿真技术,为多学科交叉融合、国际化教学等未来的教学发展方向提供更有效的平台。 相似文献
10.
Atmospheric physics in numerical weather prediction model which predominantly determines the evolution of atmospheric processes is mainly described by physical parameterization. As a result, the development of physical parameterization has been a hot research issue in the area of numerical prediction for a long time. In this regard, the theoretical background and history of physical parameterization schemes for convection, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer, were reviewed in this study. It is suggested that the advance of physical parameterization for the model with high-resolution grid spaces should be considered as a principle issue for numerical model development in the future. Although the gird spaces in current operational numerical models generally decrease toward 10 km owing to the rapid development of high-performance computation, yet most of these schemes are designed for coarse grid spaces. Because of this kind of deficiency, the theoretical basis of these schemes inevitably faces controversy. Directions for development of physical parameterization were also suggested according to the trends of research in numerical prediction. 相似文献
11.
扩散波的时空反演与洪水实时预报技术 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
以扩散波方程描述天然河道中的洪水波运动规律。将数学物理反问题理论和离散反演算法与河道流量演算相结合提出了扩散波实时预报的方法。该法的特点是在求解流量场Ｑ（ｘ,ｔ）的同时反演计算扩散波波速Ｃ（ｘ,ｔ）和扩散系数Ｄ（ｘ,ｔ）,根据不断监测的新信息系列,直接利用原偏微分方程进行参数的实时校正和预报过程实时修正。 相似文献
12.
随着全球气候变化、自然变迁及陆表生境改变,极端天气频发且呈现出多尺度时空变异特征,对其进行预报和预警一直是气象水文领域关注的焦点。临近预报可较准确地预报未来短时间天气显著变化,是当前预报强降水等极端事件的主要手段。从基于天气雷达0~3 h外推临近预报、融合数值模式0~6 h临近预报的发展历程梳理了临近预报的研究进展,阐述了雷达外推算法的发展进程、雷达外推预报与数值模式预报融合技术进展,指出"取长补短"的0~6 h融合预报在提高降水预报精度、延长降水预见期等多方面有较大的发展潜力,进一步探寻及提升融合技术是未来融合预报发展的核心。将临近预报以气象水文耦合的方式引入水文预报是从源头提高水文预报精度、保障水文预报效果的主要途径,总结了现阶段主流耦合方式、空间尺度匹配技术、水文模型不确定等陆气耦合中的关键问题,阐述了外推临近预报、融合临近预报作为水文预报输入的研究进展,明确了融合临近预报在延长洪水预见期、提高洪水预报精度中存在优势,并讨论了未来的研究重点及发展方向。 相似文献
13.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(1-2):203-217
Advances in flood forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty of estimating rainfall continuously over space, for catchment-, national- and continental-scale areas. This has had a concomitant impact on the choice of appropriate model formulations for given flood-forecasting applications. Whilst weather radar used in combination with raingauges – and extended to utilise satellite remote-sensing and numerical weather prediction models – have offered the prospect of progress, there have been significant problems to be overcome. These problems have curtailed the development and adoption of more complete distributed model formulations that aim to increase forecast accuracy. Advanced systems for weather radar display and processing, and for flood forecast construction, are now available to ease the task of implementation. Applications requiring complex networks of models to make forecasts at many locations can be undertaken without new code development and be readily revised to take account of changing requirements. These systems make use of forecast-updating procedures that assimilate data from telemetry networks to improve flood forecast performance, at the same time coping with the possibility of data loss. Flood forecasting systems that integrate rainfall monitoring and forecasting with flood forecasting and warning are now operational in many areas. Present practice in flood modelling and forecast updating is outlined from a UK perspective. Challenges for improvement are identified, particularly against a background of greater access to spatial datasets on terrain, soils, geology, land-cover, and weather variables. Representing the effective runoff production and translation processes operating at a given grid or catchment scale may prove key to improved flood simulation, and robust application to ungauged basins through physics-based linkages with these spatial datasets. The need to embrace uncertainty in flood-warning decision-making is seen as a major challenge for the future. To cite this article: R.J. Moore et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
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Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations
in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset
of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain
range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance.
The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir
Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest
that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over
different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction
of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather
forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of
the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position
and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast
for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast
model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges
in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
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Urban and artificial structures are increasingly added to the world’s coasts during a time in which changing climate is forecast to drive shifts in naturally occurring habitats. We ask whether the role of artificial structures as marine habitats will increase in importance relative to their natural counterparts, particularly as natural habitats are negatively affected by ocean warming and acidification. To evaluate this model, we contrasted use of natural (kelp forest and turfing algae) and artificial habitat (plastic pier-piling) by a nest-building amphipod (Cymadusa pemptos) under current and future climate conditions of CO2 and temperature. Under future conditions, amphipod populations in mesocosms increased, but this did not lead to greater proportional colonization of kelp and turf. Instead, colonization doubled in artificial habitats, and there was increasing production and occupation of nests on artificial habitats relative to natural habitats. In an age when human modification of natural substrata is increasingly cited as an agent of wildlife decline, understanding the future role of artificial habitats as replacement dwellings for natural habitats is critical. We pioneer an understanding of the future role of natural and artificial habitats, identifying the possibility that the role of urban structures as marine habitats may only increase. 相似文献
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The size, fall velocity, shape, axis ratio, oscillation, orientation, and their spatial distributions of raindrops are the key parameters for study of rainfall physics, which also have great significance in these fields such as research on the mechanism of soil erosion, calibration of weather radar, classification of present weather, evaluation of rainfall enhancement, and determination of channel in radio communication and navigation systems. This paper reviews the history of measurement technology and method of raindrops’ microphysical features firstly, discusses the status and shortcomings of laboratory wind tunnel experiment, optical disdrometer, and other measurement techniques and theory for the raindrops’ microphysical features, and then the shape, fall velocity, oscillation, and orientation of raindrops are analyzed. Existing disdrometers cannot measure the all the micro-physical characteristics of raindrops, which limit the application of raindrops micro physical characteristics in related area. At last from the point of view of relative area and application, the prospect of the future development trend of raindrops microphysics measurement techniques is concluded. 相似文献
20.
非线性科学的气象应用研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据非根性科学的混沌理论、分形理论和孤立子理论，从科学交叉的角度对目前气象科学中关于非线性问题的研究进展进行综合评述，内容包括大尺度环流突变与多平衡态，非线性波动及波流相互作用、孤立波与阻塞高压海气相互作用、中小尺度天气、大气运动的混沌性及可预报性、时间序列资料的处理及应用、非线性科学与气象科学的关系等。 相似文献