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This paper applies the Seismic Hazard Analysis method for the cities of China to research on the probability of earthquake occurrence in the Daduhe drainage area, where the cascade dam system is located. This research is based on the potential seismic source scheme of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China （2001）, and uses Poisson distribution as an earthquake occurrence model. Earthquake magnitude obeys truncated exponential distribution. The spatial distribution function of the potential seismic source zone is taken as the first-class spatial probability distribution, and the homogeneous probability distribution in the potential seismic source zone as the second-class spatial probability distribution. Considering the seismic intensity attenuation relationship of western China, we compute the occurrence probability of an earthquake around magnitude 6.0 （5.5 - 6.5）, 7.0 （6.5 - 7.5） and over 7.5 in the Daduhe drainage area, where 22 series cascade dams will be built. The results can be used for hydropower plant planning, hydropower dam site selection and seismic fortification. 相似文献
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THE ACTIVITY FEATURES OF XIADIAN FAULT ZONE REVEALED BY RONGJIABAO TRENCH AND ITS PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION 
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下载免费PDF全文 The time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the active faults based on the quantitative study of seismo-geology has the vital practical significance for the earthquake prevention and disaster management because it describes the seismic risk of active faults by the probability of an earthquake that increases with time and the predicted magnitude. The Poisson model used in the traditional probabilistic method contradicts with the activity characteristics of the fault, so it cannot be used directly to the potential earthquake risk evaluation of the active fault where the time elapsing from the last great earthquake is relatively short. That is to say, the present Poisson model might overestimate the potential earthquake risk of the Xiadian active fault zone in North China because the elapsed time after the historical M8 earthquake that occurred in 1679 is only 341a. Thus, based on paleoearthquake study and geomorphology survey in the field, as well as integrating the data provided by the previous scientists, this paper reveals two paleo-events occurring on the Xiadian active fault zone. The first event E1 occurred in 1679 with magnitude M8 and ruptured the surface from Sanhe City of Hebei Province to Pinggu District of Beijing at about 341a BP, and the other happened in (4.89±0.68)ka BP(E2). Our research also found that the average co-seismic displacement is ~(1.4±0.1)m, and the predicted maximum magnitude of the potential earthquake is 8.0. In addition, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of great earthquakes for Xiadian active fault zone in the forthcoming 30a is performed based on Poisson model, Brownian time passage model(BPT), stochastic characteristic-slip model(SCS)and NB model to describe time-dependent features of the fault rupture source and its characteristic behavior. The research shows that the probability of strong earthquake in the forthcoming 30a along the Xiadian active fault zone is lower than previously thought, and the seismic hazard level estimated by Poisson model might be overestimated. This result is also helpful for the scientific earthquake potential estimation and earthquake disaster protection of the Xiadian active fault zone, and for the discussion on how to better apply the time-dependent probabilistic methods to the earthquake potential evaluation of active faults in eastern China. 相似文献
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The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the eart 相似文献
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以祁连山为研究区,以上限震级７．５和８．０的潜源为特征地震段,利用滑动速率法分别计算上述每个潜源中７．０～７．４级,７．５～７．９级地震的复发间隔。特征地震选用ＮＢ模型条件概率和ＮＢ累积概率模型,中强震采用中国地震区划图（１９９０）的分档泊松模型,组成混合地震模型,用中国西部椭圆地震衰减公式,计算了未来５０ａ,超越概率为１０％的地震烈度。计算结果认为累积概率模型当地震离逝时间长而潜源面积小时影响大,面积大的潜源应进一步考虑潜源的稀释问题 相似文献
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在十年尺度（５—１０年）地震危险性预测中，需要处理众多的不确定因素。受这些不确定因素的约束，地震预测的结果必然带有相当的不确定性，因此应该用概率分析的方法进行预测。考虑地震发生的时间、空间和强度的非均匀性及相关特征和地震危险性长期背景（地质、地球物理场等因素）与地震发生前兆的概率结合，提出了十年尺度地震危险性预测的概率模型。考虑资料的不均匀性和适宜不同地区的地震前兆方法的差异，本文还提出了概率预测模型简化形式，以满足全国不同地区的需要。本文以华北北部地区为例讨论了该模型的实际应用。文中提出的方法可以用于全国十年尺度地震危险性的概率预测。根据本项研究提供的结果和计算程序，可以满足地震对策和地震损失估计对地震中长期概率预测的需要。 相似文献
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扶余肇东断裂带是松辽盆地中一条重要的隐伏发震断裂带,2006年和2014年在此断裂带上发生了多次近6级地震,地震活动主要集中在断裂的东北段和查干花段。在2012—2014年的松原市活断层探测工作中,探明扶余肇东断裂带东北段经过松原市区,该段呈近EW向,具有明显的分段性和独立性,将其命名为扶余北断裂。通过三维物探资料和浅层人工探测,确定了扶余北断裂的空间展布和剖面特征,并利用联排钻孔探测和光释光测年技术,确定该断裂存在晚更新世以来的活动;利用石油物探资料获得的基岩面破裂规模,对扶余北断裂的地震潜势进行了估计,并进行了概率性地震危险性研究。 相似文献
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This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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To actually reflect the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of intra continental strong earthquakes of North China in seismic
hazard analysis, several seismological and geological characteristics have been selected and quantized to describe the seismicity
features in time and space of every magnitude interval with the thought of dividing the interesting magnitude range into several
intervals and using of spatial probability distribution function. A component analysis method with orthogonal transformation
is introduced to avoid the repeated use of the same element and the subjective effects in determining the annual earthquake
occurrence rates of earthquake. By passing synthetic fuzzy judgement on the nonintercorrelated new characteristics, the annual
occurrence rates of every magnitude interval of each potential source area are obtained associated with the adjustments of
earthquake reducing process after the occurrence ofM>7 quake. An intensity map of the Beijing-Tianjin-Zhangjiakou area is calculated as an example which shows a close coincidence
with the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of North China.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 496–504, 1991. 相似文献
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震后快速产出的震动烈度分布是地震应急救援非常有效的依据, 通常由烈度与地震动参数的经验关系给出. 有台站的场点, 地震动参数可以直接由台站数据给出确定性的结果; 而无台站的场点, 地震动参数只能由衰减关系给出估计值. 目前我国台站覆盖有限, 且难于实时获取, 快速生成的地震动参数主要依赖于地震动衰减关系, 再依据烈度与地震动参数的经验关系, 输出确定性的震动烈度分布. 由于衰减关系本身存在着不确定性, 将其估计值用于生成确定性的震动烈度分布是不准确的. 而且实践证明, 震动烈度与实际调查烈度存在差异. 鉴于此, 从衰减关系模型中的ε出发, 提出了场点(城镇)遭遇不同烈度的概率计算方法: 利用衰减关系的估计值与衰减关系的标准差, 构造峰值加速度(PGA)变化的对数正态分布, 然后以烈度分档对应的PGA范围, 计算震区各城镇遭遇不同烈度的概率及各城镇抗震设防烈度被超越的概率. 具体以1966年3月8日河北邢台MS6.8地震为例, 说明了此方法的可行性, 认为以概率形式给出城镇可能遭遇的烈度在表述上更为合理, 并建议将场点(城镇)遭遇烈度的概率表达方法用于震害快速评估. 相似文献
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以汶川地震为研究背景,针对震后典型钢筋混凝土框架结构进行地震易损性研究。基于Cornell理论框架结合汶川地质资料,拟合出考虑场地特点的地震危险性模型,同时定义损伤水平状态及限值指标,以概率解析易损性研究方法为基础,运用考虑地震动参数的解析易损性评估方法绘制汶川地区钢筋混凝土框架建筑的地震易损性曲线。研究结果表明:考虑地震动参数的概率解析易损性研究方法是一种有效的地震易损性评估方法;以PGA作为地震强度输入指标的结构反应,随自振周期的增大体系最大响应的相关性降低,结构各个损伤状态的失效概率均随之增大。 相似文献
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China is the country with the challenge of severe earthquake disaster. In order to mitigate the disaster and save lives, emergency response and rescue work after an earthquake are deployed and led by the Chinese governments at all level, the effectiveness of which has been proved. In such work, how to quickly evaluate the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is a crucial issue at the early period after the earthquake. It is the foundation to estimate the disaster losses and decide the scale of rescue teams and materials. However, at the early period only a few physical parameters of the earthquake can be acquired and some of them may even be inaccurate.
An evaluation model of seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is investigated and presented by statistic method in this study. After an earthquake there are four authoritative parameters officially released by China Earthquake Administration generally within ten minutes:earthquake magnitude (MS), focal depth, latitude and longitude position, and the occurrence time. They are good candidate input parameters of the evaluation model. We collect the information of 215 historical earthquake occurring in China from 1966 to 2013, including:The four parameters and the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area. Through statistical analysis we find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area has high correlation with the earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth and then select them as the formal input parameters. After further investigation a generalized linear model is built to fit the relationship between the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area, earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth.
The effectiveness of the model is validated by the Sig value and F value from theoretic perspective. The validation also includes the application of the model in real earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2017. After the earthquakes, the seismic intensities in meizoseismal area have been quickly estimated and used in the command of national earthquake disaster emergency relief. The applications in real earthquakes get good results.
Finally, the robustness of the model is analyzed. We respectively verify the influences of the earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth and find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is more sensitive to the earthquake magnitude. Under the condition of the same focal depth, when the change of the earthquake magnitude is up to 0.5, the change of the seismic intensity will reach to 1. However, in order to cause same change of the seismic intensity, the difference of the focal depth will be 10 kilometers. Basically, these changes derived from the model meet the situation of historical earthquakes. 相似文献
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利用中国西部古地震和历史地震资料建立了特征地震模型并与分档泊松模型结合组成混合地震模型。研究了青藏高原东南缘的重要地震带鲜水河－小江断裂地区的地震危险性,并与1990年出版的中国地震区划图结果进行了比较,表明在1786年曾经发生过73／4级地震的康定地区（离浙时间为213a,地震复地周期为320a）的地震概率大于后,Ⅷ度区面积同样是前大于后。这说明地震离逝时间与地震复发周期关系对地震危险性计算是有影响的,特征地震与混合地震模型的引入解决了泊松模型无记忆性的缺陷,使计算的结果更科学、合理。 相似文献
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Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing?CTianjin?CTangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1?×?0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity?Cfrequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I????7, 8, or 9 in 50?years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50?years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. 相似文献
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利用我国京津唐地区500年以来记录较完整的历史地震烈度资料,尝试进行了地震灾害与危险性分析,以提供制定抗震设防基本参数或烈度的参考.首先,我们用ArcGIS把这些历史烈度资料进行了数字化,并把研究区分成 0.1°×0.1°的小方格.然后,我们对烈度资料进行了统计分析,得到每个小方格的地震烈度-频度关系（即灾害曲线）.最后,基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定,利用灾害曲线估算了京津唐地区的地震风险,即在未来一段时间内(如 50年)该地区遭受某一地震烈度(如Ⅶ,Ⅷ,或Ⅸ度)的超越概率.同时,我们还估算了50年超越概率10%所对应的地震烈度,如：北京为Ⅸ,天津为Ⅸ,唐山为≥Ⅸ,保定为Ⅷ,廊坊为Ⅸ.研究结果表明,京津唐地区有较高的地震危险性,现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低. 相似文献
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目前地震分形计算的方法很多,但各方法或多或少都存在一些问题．本文引入一种地震分形计算的新方法——最小生成树法（minimal spanning tree）,对其算法作了重要的修改,并通过对乌什、乌苏、唐山和海城4个区域震例的研究,得出大震前后地震时空分布多重分形谱由集中变疏张,反映了分形结构复杂性的增加、地震时空分布不均匀性的增加．由点集的数值模拟表明:强震前后多重分形谱变化的物理本质是地震分布由均一到不均一,由简单到复杂的变化过程． 相似文献
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Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the 相似文献
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Introduction Stress release model (SRM) was proposed by Vere-Jones (1978) for statistical study of seismicity. Physically it is a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory of earthquake genesis. The classical elastic rebound model suggests that the stress has been slowly accumulating until the burst of an earthquake occurrence for stress release. This can be simulated by the jump Markov process in stochastic field, and SRM was developed on the basis of Knopoff (s Markov model (Knop… 相似文献
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Qian Wang Xinxin Yin Changsheng Jiang Cong Jiang Yan Zhang Hongyu Zhai Yanbao Zhang Guijuan Lai Fengling Yin 《地震科学（英文版）》2021,34(3):286-298
In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference. 相似文献