共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Frolova N. L. Magritskii D. V. Kireeva M. B. Grigor’ev V. Yu. Gelfan A. N. Sazonov A. A. Shevchenko A. I. 《Water Resources》2022,49(3):333-350
Water Resources - Publications on changes in river water regime in Russia under the conditions of current climate changes are reviewed. Most recent generalizations of such publications are... 相似文献
2.
Nasonova O. N. Gusev Ye. M. Kovalev E. E. Ayzel G. V. Panysheva K. M. 《Water Resources》2019,46(1):S145-S154
Water Resources - Projected changes in river runoff due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with making use of a physically-based land surface model SWAP and... 相似文献
3.
Hartmut Grassl 《Surveys in Geophysics》2011,32(4-5):319-328
Anthropogenic climate change has emerged as one of the major challenges for mankind in the centuries to come. The strongly modified composition of the atmosphere, due to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol particles, leads to an enhanced greenhouse effect and also intensified backscattering of solar radiation by aerosol particles. The resulting global mean warming will have a major impact on the entire cryosphere, with global consequences via mean sea level rise and redistributed precipitation. This introductory presentation will summarize the emergence of the topic, its already observed consequences for the cryosphere, and it will also discuss issues in climate policy making when dealing with the climate change challenge. 相似文献
4.
Water Resources - The aim of this study was investigating the ability of the AOGCM INMCM4.0 and LSM SWAP to reproduce streamflow of nine northern Russian rivers located in the European Russia and... 相似文献
5.
As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may have affected malaria in England. Our analysis indicates that cold summers experienced during the 1800s may have contributed to the disappearance of this disease from the country. As our summers become progressively warner it is unlikely that malaria will become firmly re-established on these shores, although the possibility of future outbreaks should not be ignored. 相似文献
6.
Water Resources - A method is proposed for probabilistic forecasting of river flow under non-stationary conditions based on the Bayesian approach and using the results of climatic system modeling.... 相似文献
7.
Paul A. O’Gorman Richard P. Allan Michael P. Byrne Michael Previdi 《Surveys in Geophysics》2012,33(3-4):585-608
Energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. Much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. Here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. We also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. Challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales. 相似文献
8.
气候变化可能触发地震和火山 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2009年9月15—17日,地质与地貌灾害的气候作用力研讨会在英国伦敦大学学院（University College London,UCL）召开,会议主要就过去和当前的气候变化与灾难性地质、地貌灾害间的关系进行了探讨。会议讨论内容主要分为三大部分：①过去与未来的气候; 相似文献
9.
Sabine Roedelsperger Michael Kuhn Oleg Makarynskyy Carl Gerstenecker 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(6):1131-1151
It is sometimes assumed that steric sea-level variations do not produce a gravity signal as no net mass change, thus no change
of ocean bottom pressure is associated with it. Analyzing the output of two CO2 emission scenarios over a period of 2000 years in terms of steric sea-level changes, we try to quantify the gravitational
effect of steric sea-level variations. The first scenario, computed with version 2.6 of the Earth System Climate Model developed
at the University of Victoria, Canada (UVic ESCM), is implemented with a linear CO2 increase of 1% of the initial concentration of 365 ppm and shows a globally averaged steric effect of 5.2 m after 2000 years.
In the second scenario, computed with UVic ESCM version 2.7, the CO2 concentration increases quasi-exponentially to a level of 3011 ppm and is hold fixed afterwards. The corresponding globally
averaged steric effect in the first 2000 years is 2.3 m. We show, due to the (vertical) redistribution of ocean water masses
(expansion or contraction), the steric effect results also in a small change in the Earth’s gravity field compared to usually
larger changes associated with net mass changes. Maximum effects for computation points located on the initial ocean surface
can be found in scenario 1, with the effect on gravitational attraction and potential ranging from 0.0 to −0.7·10−5 m s−2 and −3·10−3 to 6·10−3 m2 s−2, respectively. As expected, the effect is not zero but negligible for practical applications. 相似文献
10.
气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用. 相似文献
11.
Ivana Nemešová Jaroslava Kalová Martin Dubrovský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1999,43(2):201-222
Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO
2
) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios. 相似文献
12.
Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jessica Hartman Kristie Ebi K. John McConnell Nathan Chan John Weyant 《Global Change & Human Health》2002,3(1):42-54
As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring
malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model
of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in
2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature
and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense
human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission,
while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity
and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed
can be used within or across other African countries.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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本文运用统计方法分析了东亚季风指数的观测序列;同时还揭示了不同时期的东亚季风变化趋势和年代际变化.自1873年以来,东亚季风逐渐减少,同时年代际的变化也十分明显.在1891-1900年间和1971-1980年间,夏季季风指数的十年平均达到极大,另外还出现两个极小值,它们分别出现在1921-1930年和1991-2000年.为了对东亚季风变化进行模拟,我们首先简要地介绍了动力系统的自忆性原理,然后叙述了一个新的时间序列分析方法——基于数据的机制自记忆模型(DAMSM).DAMSM被应用于东亚季风指数研究并且证明了它对东亚季风的拟合及预报能力. 相似文献
16.
The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80, 120, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10, 15, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (±0.1 m3/s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics. 相似文献
17.
Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Renata J. Romanowicz Ewa Bogdanowicz Sisay E. Debele Joanna Doroszkiewicz Hege Hisdal Deborah Lawrence Hadush K. Meresa Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski Marzena Osuch Witold G. Strupczewski Donna Wilson Wai Kwok Wong 《Acta Geophysica》2016,64(2):477-509
This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway. 相似文献
18.
Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period. 相似文献
19.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Gharesou River Basin Using SWAT Hydrological Model 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from ?90 to 120% during different months. 相似文献