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群测群防队伍是我国防震减灾工作中一支重要力量,在多次的地震短临预报、应急救援中发挥了重要的作用。许昌市地震局为了更好的发挥群测群防在防震减灾工作的作用,加大投入、规范管理,取得了一定效果。作者通过对新时期群测群防工作的思考,简要介绍了新时期群测群防的工作内容及许昌市的一些做法,以期望能够对全国的群测群防工作有一定的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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作者是一位地震群测群防的实践者、见证者,通过亲身经历,回顾了地震群测群防队伍组建的历史、发展过程及地震群测群防的主要工作和取得的成绩。指出,地震群测群防在特定的历史时期发挥了巨大作用,在我国防灾减灾史上留下了浓墨重彩的一笔,提醒大家不该忘却这一历史。 相似文献
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1988年5月31日至6月4日,国家地震局科技监测司在青岛市召开了全国地下水(水位、水化)预报地震专业会议。这是一次专群结合共商地震大计的专业会议,也是地下水位动态与水文地球化学两个学科相互渗透的学术会议。两种学科方法,两支研究队伍共同召开学术会议,这在地震预报研究史上还是第一次,对发展具有中国特色的专群结合的地下水预报地震的方法具有积极的推动作用。纵观这次会议,有如下几个突出特点:1.专群结合,规模大参加这次会议的代表有150余人,群测地方代表占50％,他们大多数是来自基层测报点、地、市、县级地办及省级群测管理部门的 相似文献
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记述了1970-1976年四川地震群测群防的兴起和发展,介绍了四川群测群防、专群结合预测预报地震的典型事例,特别对松潘—平武7.2级地震预测预报群测群防的作用作了反映。在此基础上,就这一时间四川群测群防、专线结合地震工作实践作了评析和认识。 相似文献
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0 前言
群测群防,简单地说就是依靠群众的力量,共同防御地震灾害。群测群防队伍在过去几十年的地震短临预报中发挥着专业队伍难以替代的作用。 相似文献
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<正>1研究背景地震群测群防工作是我国特色的地震预报工作,大规模群测群防工作始于1974年5月11日云南昭通大关MS 7.1地震后。1974年8月,国家地震局召开了大关地震现场会议,局主要领导处室负责人、局属研究所和各省市区地震局办的主要领导专家、震区灾区县市区公社领导和测报点人员等近200人,在交通闭塞且尚有余震的震灾区现场开展震害灾情考察,统一了群测群防和专群结合地震预报工作重要性的认识。现场会后各省地震管理部门均召开地震群测群防工作会议,认真贯彻国务院[1974]69号文件精神和国家地震局云南昭通地震现场会议精神,总结地震群测群防工作开展情况及安排部署工作。 相似文献
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<正>1研究背景为进一步提高地震监测预报水平和能力,地震部门不断探索研究新时代、新阶段中国特色专群结合地震短临预报模式,在优化专业站网布局、强化地震台分析预报业务的同时,不断提升市县地震群测群防能力,以构建现代化地震监测预报业务体系。笔者就云南地区地震宏观观测现状以及如何创新地震群策群防工作,谈一些思考和建议。 相似文献
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《山西地震》1974,(3)
我们襄汾县地处临汾盆地南端,汾河断层两侧,历史上曾发生过多次大震,是地震危险区之一.一九七0年全国地震会议后,我们开始搞地震群测群防工作.几年来,特别是批林批孔运动开展以来,在毛主席革命路线指引下,群测群防工作由不认识到认识,由不自觉到自觉,逐步深入.群测群防队伍也由小到大,由点到面,不断发展壮大.目前,全县共有群测点二十三个,其中土仪器测报点六个,动物观察点十二个,水位测报点五个.业余测报人员约一百余人,观测手段十种,初步形成了地震群测群防网.一、加强党的领导是关键 路线教育是根本党、政、军、民、学,东、西、南、北、中,党是领导一切的.过去有一段时间,我们对如何依靠党委抓好地震群测群防工作,理解不深.觉得县委是抓大事,抓方向,具体工作是靠我们来做,及时请示、汇报,取得县委的指示与支持较少,只凭满腔热情 相似文献
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This paper presents new seismic hazard maps of the Maghreb countries by using newly re-evaluated earthquake data catalogue in the region under consideration. For this region, there is a clear need to use common procedure and data bases through the whole Maghreb region so that seismic hazard assessments are consistent from country to country. An effort is made to assess the seismic hazard and to construct earthquake hazard maps in terms of expected horizontal and vertical PGA for a 10 per cent chance of being exceeded, expected intensity (MSK), all in an economic life time of 50 and 100 years. Also, a return period seismic hazard map for PGA≥140cm/s2 is presented. For engineering applications, earthquake hazard maps for structures with different periods are also constructed. 相似文献
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地震滑坡危险性评估可为震后应急响应等提供科学的决策依据。纽马克位移法可不依赖同震滑坡编目快速评估同震滑坡危险性。工程岩体物理力学参数是该方法的核心参数之一,但其赋值过于单一,难以反映复杂地质背景下岩体强度的空间差异性。针对上述问题,本文在分析地震滑坡影响因子的基础上,选择距断层距离、高程和距水系距离作为影响岩体强度的评价指标并建立岩体强度评价模型,获得区域岩体强度修正系数,进而修正传统方法的临界加速度。结合震后的即时地震动峰值加速度,采用简化纽马克位移法计算边坡累积位移,开展地震滑坡危险性快速评估,并以汶川MW7.9地震的地震滑坡危险性评估为例验证本文方法。结果表明,相对于传统方法,本文方法划分的地震滑坡危险区与同震滑坡分布更加一致。 相似文献
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现代地震观测积累了大量、种类繁多的地震前兆数据和震后数据,但数据中隐含的地震规律及趋势无法用经典的算例、数学公式、物理公式进行定量解释、分析和预测,需要探索新方法、新技术。案例表明,大数据分析具有预测事物发展趋势、改变传统观念和发现新事物的功能,有助于从错误信息中挖掘有价值信息。本文由此提出基于大数据技术处理地震数据的新思路,对地震监测预报新思路进行探索;通过在大数据平台上基于地震目录的余震预测研究,给出大数据技术在地震数据处理方面的一个应用实例,验证该思路的可行性。 相似文献
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研究了我国青藏块体地区每一地震活跃幕里地震活动的主体地区、地震活动强度和地震活动持续时间,认为2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的发生可能意味着我国青藏块体自1995年或1997年开始的地震活跃幕已经进入后期,同时也意味着这一地区自1920年以来更长时间尺度里的地震活动期也进入了收尾阶段.未来几年青藏块体地震活动水平为7级... 相似文献
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Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully. 相似文献
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From recent lessons, it is evident that earthquake prediction is immature and impractical as of now. Under the circumstances, seismic hazard analysis is considered a more practical approach for earthquake hazard mitigation, by estimating the annual rate of earthquake ground motions (or seismic hazard) based on seismicity and other geological evidences. Like other earthquake studies for the high-seismicity region around Taiwan, this study aims to conduct a new seismic hazard assessment for the region using the well-established FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm, on the record of 55,000 earthquakes observed in the past 110 years. The new seismic hazard analysis from a different perspective shows that the annual rate for earthquake-induced PGA to exceed the current design value (i.e., 0.23g) in two major cities in Taiwan should be relatively low, with it no greater than 0.0006 per year. Besides, the FOSM estimates were found very close to those with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), mainly because the skewness of the three random variables (i.e., earthquake magnitude, location, and model error) considered in the probabilistic analysis is not very large. 相似文献
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Pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes using Kohonen selforganizing map: example in west and south west of Alborz region 
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下载免费PDF全文 Pattern recognition of seismic and morphostructural nodes plays an important role in seismic hazard assessment. This is a known fact in seismology that tectonic nodes are prone areas to large earthquake and have this potential. They are identified by morphostructural analysis. In this study, the Alborz region has considered as studied case and locations of future events are forecast based on Kohonen Self-Organized Neural Network. It has been shown how it can predict the location of earthquake, and identifies seismogenic nodes which are prone to earthquake of M5.5+ at the West of Alborz in Iran by using International Institute Earthquake Engineering and Seismology earthquake catalogs data. First, the main faults and tectonic lineaments have been identified based on MZ (land zoning method) method. After that, by using pattern recognition, we generalized past recorded events to future in order to show the region of probable future earthquakes. In other word, hazardous nodes have determined among all nodes by new catalog generated Self-organizing feature maps (SOFM). Our input data are extracted from catalog, consists longitude and latitude of past event between 1980-2015 with magnitude larger or equal to 4.5. It has concluded node D1 is candidate for big earthquakes in comparison with other nodes and other nodes are in lower levels of this potential. 相似文献
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Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model. 相似文献