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香港天文台在2012年引进了一套采用平行运算技术的海啸数值模型COrnell Multigrid COupled Tsunami(COMCOT)model,并与香港天文台在2010年初开始运行的地震数据处理及分析系统结合,利用后者探测及分析所得的太平洋或南海地震参数,模拟海啸传播过程和计算海啸在海面上及抵岸时的情况。并用日本311地震所产生的海啸为主要案例,加上过去香港曾经录得的海啸记录,验证COMCOT模拟海啸的能力,讨论COMCOT在香港天文台海啸预警工作上的应用。 相似文献
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南海东南边缘的马尼拉海沟是国际上公认具有发生破坏性地震海啸条件的危险地区,由于南海没有大面积的岛屿阻隔海啸传播,如果在马尼拉海沟发生大地震引发海啸,那么将对广东省漫长的海岸线造成严重破坏。广东省南海地震海啸监测预警系统建设在广东省地震速报系统和国家地震自动速报备份系统的基础上,由地震速报、震源机制快速计算、海啸数值模拟计算等模块组成,对南海地震海啸进行实时监测,提供海啸波浪到达海岸线的估计时刻和最大海浪高度,提供预警信息等社会公共服务。 相似文献
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北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05:46 UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生Mw9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23 h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4 h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6~8 h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计. 相似文献
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广东省地震海啸危险分析与监测预警系统构想 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对广东省地震海啸的潜在危险进行了分析,认为广东省可能面临的海啸威胁主要来自南海东部。一旦发生地震海啸,将出现重大的灾害,并对广东省的社会和经济产生巨大的影响。提出了建立广东省地震海啸监测预警系统的初步构想。 相似文献
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Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention. 相似文献
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Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and
across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property
began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were
used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events
of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international
system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became
available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques,
coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings,
but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to
shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more
realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting
will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries
supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed
to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone
for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike
and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under
the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight
lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and
their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations,
and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more
frequent and destructive local tsunamis. 相似文献
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在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m. 相似文献
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Tokutaro Hatori 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):471-479
Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M
s
=6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis. 相似文献
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The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized
tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami
warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium
(ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction
briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning
systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented. 相似文献
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A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Huimin Helen Jing Huai Zhang David A. Yuen Yaolin Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):129-138
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view. 相似文献
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The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source
tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National
Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and
monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped
with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification
of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations
of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow
water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession
at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced
in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta,
is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed
material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program
to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. 相似文献
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本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域. 相似文献
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On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while
the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated
across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to
the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in
one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson
Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time
assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community
in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami
Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European
Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the
art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate. 相似文献