共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Valentina Krysanova Fred Hattermann Shaochun Huang Cornelia Hesse Tobias Vetter Stefan Liersch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):606-635
AbstractThe Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin 相似文献
2.
Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model. 相似文献
3.
AbstractOver the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei 相似文献
4.
Aline Meyer Ayan Santos Fleischmann Walter Collischonn Rodrigo Paiva Pedro Jardim 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2035-2047
ABSTRACTAn accurate comprehension of celerity (flood wave speed) dynamics is a key step for understanding flood wave propagation in rivers. We present the results of empirically estimated celerity values in 12 Brazilian rivers, and analyse the behaviour of celerity–discharge relationships (CxQ). Celerity was estimated with a reach-scale (RS) method, based on the peak travel time between stations; and with a local-scale (LS) method, based on the derivative of discharge–cross-section area relationships surveyed at gauging stations. The results indicate that the magnitudes of celerity values obtained by the methods are reasonably comparable, and can rarely be considered constant, varying with river discharge. Three reaches presented differing CxQ relationships at local and reach scales, which suggests that in situ cross-sections at gauging stations should not be extrapolated as representative of the whole reach for flood routing studies, and that CxQ relationship assessments might provide relevant insights for hydrological modelling. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670. 相似文献
6.
Abstract The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge. 相似文献
7.
Abstract The vertical profiles of streamwise velocities are computed on flood plains vegetated with trees. The calculations were made based on a newly developed one-dimensional model, taking into account the relevant forces acting on the volumetric element surrounding the considered vegetation elements. A modified mixing length concept was used in the model. An important by-product of the model is the method for evaluating the friction velocities, and consequently bed shear stresses, in a vegetated channel. The model results were compared with the relevant experimental results obtained in a laboratory flume in which flood plains were covered by simulated vegetation. 相似文献
8.
Coupling the Xinanjiang model to a kinematic flow model based on digital drainage networks for flood forecasting 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Xinanjiang model, which is a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model and has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi‐humid regions in China, is coupled by the physically based kinematic wave method based on a digital drainage network. The kinematic wave Xinanjiang model (KWXAJ) uses topography and land use data to simulate runoff and overland flow routing. For the modelling, the catchment is subdivided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. The Xinanjiang model simulates the runoff yield in each grid cell, and the kinematic wave approach is then applied to a ranked raster network. The grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model was applied to simulate basin‐scale water discharge from an 805‐km2 catchment of the Huaihe River, China. Rainfall and discharge records were available for the years 1984, 1985, 1987, 1998 and 1999. Eight flood events were used to calibrate the model's parameters and three other flood events were used to validate the grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model. A Manning's roughness via a linear flood depth relationship was suggested in this paper for improving flood forecasting. The calibration and validation results show that this model works well. A sensitivity analysis was further performed to evaluate the variation of topography (hillslopes) and land use parameters on catchment discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
A. SVOBODA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):461-470
Abstract This paper describes the use of a simple two stage rainfall-runoff model in which a curve number (CN) principle is used to calculate the soil water content and, subsequently, the rainfall contribution to direct runoff and groundwater flow. The maximum soil water retention, S, is used to express various characteristics of a catchment (infiltration rate, soil cover and land use, as in the CN method) relevant to flood formation. Using historical flood events, the model is calibrated, and the statistical distribution parameters of peak flows determined. With the same historical input data scenarios (rainfall), sets of flood hydrographs are simulated for various values of the parameter S, and corresponding distribution parameters of peak flows are determined. This procedure is used to demonstrate possible changes in flood regime to be expected due to changes of the catchment soil properties and its vegetation cover. A case study is presented for the River Hron catchment, area 582 km2, in the mountainous region of central Slovakia. 相似文献
10.
Kenechukwu Okoli Korbinian Breinl Luigia Brandimarte Anna Botto Elena Volpi Giuliano Di Baldassarre 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13-14):1913-1926
ABSTRACTThis study compares model averaging and model selection methods to estimate design floods, while accounting for the observation error that is typically associated with annual maximum flow data. Model selection refers to methods where a single distribution function is chosen based on prior knowledge or by means of selection criteria. Model averaging refers to methods where the results of multiple distribution functions are combined. Numerical experiments were carried out by generating synthetic data using the Wakeby distribution function as the parent distribution. For this study, comparisons were made in terms of relative error and root mean square error (RMSE) referring to the 1-in-100 year flood. The experiments show that model averaging and model selection methods lead to similar results, especially when short samples are drawn from a highly asymmetric parent. Also, taking an arithmetic average of all design flood estimates gives estimated variances similar to those obtained with more complex weighted model averaging. 相似文献
11.
A flood emergency storage area (polder) is used to reduce the flood peak in the main river and hence, protect downstream areas from being inundated. In this study, the effectiveness of a proposed flood emergency storage area at the middle Elbe River, Germany in reducing the flood peaks is investigated using hydrodynamic modelling. The flow to the polders is controlled by adjustable gates. The extreme flood event of August 2002 is used for the study. A fully hydrodynamic 1D model and a coupled 1D–2D model are applied to simulate the flooding and emptying processes in the polders and flow in the Elbe River. The results obtained from the 1D and 1D–2D models are compared with respect to the peak water level reductions in the Elbe River and flow processes in the polders during their filling and emptying. The computational time, storage space requirements and modelling effort for the two models are also compared. It is concluded that a 1D model may be used to study the water level and discharge reductions in the main river while a 1D-2D model may be used when the study of flow dynamics in the polder is of particular interest. Further, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the 1D and 1D–2D models is carried out with respect to Manning's n values, DEMs of different resolutions, number of cross-sections used and the gate opening time as well as gate opening/closing duration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
基于SWAT模型的淮河上游流域设计洪水修订 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
变化环境下洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,引发基于统计原理计算的设计洪水可靠性下降,亟需开展非一致性条件下的设计洪水修订研究.以淮河上游流域为研究区域,运用Pettitt检验法和滑动t检验法综合检测年最大洪峰流量序列突变点,在此基础上,采用SWAT分布式水文模型对变异前的洪峰与洪量序列进行还现,利用径流深的模拟结果修订设计洪水,并对修订后的洪水序列进行频率分析.结果表明:(1)淮河上游息县和淮滨站年最大洪峰流量呈现不显著的减小趋势,王家坝站则表现出不显著增加趋势,1991年为各站年最大洪峰流量序列的突变点;(2) 3个水文站率定期和验证期的确定性系数(R2)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)均满足适用性要求,其中流域出口王家坝站率定期R2、NSE分别为0.77和0.79、验证期分别为0.72和0.74,模拟精度较高;(3)淮河上游流域洪水设计值较修订前略有减小,其中,洪峰流量减小幅度平均值在3.3%～6.1%之间,淮滨站的减小幅度最大;不同时段洪量的减小幅度平均值在1.4%～2.7%之间,整体修订幅度小于洪峰流量的修订幅度,并且洪量的时段越长,修订幅度越小;随着重现期的增大,各洪水指标的修订幅度逐渐减小.本研究对于变化环境下的淮河流域水利工程规划和防洪减灾具有重要意义. 相似文献
13.
Abstract Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51. 相似文献
14.
The effects of elevated CO2 on vegetation dynamics and the hydrological cycle have been widely studied at the site level. However, quantitative assessments of these effects on a regional scale remain a challenge. We conducted numerical simulations to predict the possible responses of vegetation and the hydrological cycle in the Sino-Mongolia arid and semi-arid region (SMASR) to doubled CO2 and its associated climate change using the Community Earth System Model in tandem with a dynamic global vegetation model. The results showed that the doubled CO2 had a positive effect on the leaf area index of the SMASR, but its associated climate change exerted a negative effect in most parts of the SMASR. Although climate change had a weak negative effect on ground runoff at the regional scale, a 4.74 mm increase was predicted under the combined effect of doubled CO2 and climate change, largely due to the positive effect of doubled CO2. Spatially, the evident increase in ground runoff, which primarily occurred in the southeastern part of the SMASR, resulted from decreased ground evaporation and canopy transpiration under the doubled CO2 condition. A negative effect was predicted in the central west as a result of increased temperature and a changed precipitation under doubled CO2. These findings implied that the condition of water resources would be improved slightly under a doubled CO2 condition, whereas there would be a larger spatial heterogeneity in relation to different sensitivities of vegetation and hydrological variables to doubled CO2 and associated climate change. 相似文献
15.
Haykel Sellami Isabelle La Jeunesse Sihem Benabdallah Marnik Vanclooster 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1635-1657
AbstractThe SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. GertenCitation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657. 相似文献
16.
Abstract The flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal flood plains of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan are, while dependent on the river levels, influenced by a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying. A detailed analysis of soil and evapotranspiration conditions, as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions, has been conducted using field and laboratory experiments. Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river-fed seasonal flood plains and the rain-fed grasslands have been established. The results show that river spill is responsible for flooding these areas while no return flow occurs, and drying is caused by evapotranspiration. Rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events. Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 4–16. 相似文献
17.
Jantiene E. M. Baartman Wouter van Gorp Arnaud J. A. M. Temme Jeroen M. Schoorl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(9):923-935
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three‐dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on timescales of centuries to millennia and using annual timesteps that has had a hillslope focus. Our objective was to incorporate fluvial behaviour in LAPSUS without changing the existing model equations. The model should be able to reproduce alternating aggradation and incision in the floodplains of catchments, depending on simulated conditions. Testing was done using an artificial digital elevation model (DEM) and a demonstration of the ability for fluvial simulation was performed for a real landscape (Torrealvilla catchment, southeast Spain). Model equations to calculate sediment dynamics and water routing were similar for both hillslope and fluvial conditions, but different parameter values were used for these domains, defined based on annual discharge. Parameters changing between the domains are convergence factor p, which is used in the multiple flow algorithm to route water, and discharge and gradient exponents m and n, used in transport capacity calculations. Erodibility and ‘sedimentability’ factors K and P were changed between cold (little vegetation, high erodibility) and warm conditions (more vegetation, lower erodibility). Results show that the adapted parameters reproduced alternating aggradation – due to divergent flow in the floodplain and sediment supply under cold conditions – and incision due to reduced sediment supply and resulting clean water erosion during simulated warm conditions. The simulated results are due to interactions between hillslopes and floodplains, as the former provide the sediments that are deposited in the latter. Similar behaviour was demonstrated when using the real DEM. Sensitivity and resolution analysis showed that the model is sensitive to changes in m, n and p and that model behaviour is influenced by DEM resolution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
ABSTRACTIn this paper we develop a coupled analytical model for salinity and tidal propagation in estuaries where the cross-sectional area varies exponentially. A simple analytical model for tidal dynamics has been used to estimate the tidal excursion, which has an important influence on the salt intrusion process since it determines the extreme salinities (i.e. salinity distribution for high water slack and low water slack). The objective of the coupling is to reduce the number of calibration parameters, which subsequently strengthens the reliability of the salt intrusion model. Moreover, the coupling enables us to assess the potential impacts of external changes, both human-induced interventions (e.g. dredging) and natural changes (e.g. global sea level rise), on the salt intrusion process. In addition, the fully analytical solution for hydrodynamics allows immediate estimation of the tidally averaged depth and friction coefficient for given water level recordings and salinity measurements. This is particularly useful when a geometric survey is not available. The coupled model has been applied to six previously unsurveyed estuaries in Malaysia and the results show that the correspondence between analytical estimations and observations is very good. Thus, the coupled model proves to be a useful tool to obtain estimates of salt intrusion in estuaries based on a minimum amount of information required and for assessing the effect of human-induced or natural changes.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR B. Dewals 相似文献
19.
Johan Strömqvist Berit Arheimer Joel Dahné Chantal Donnelly Göran Lindström 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):229-247
Abstract A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (～450 000 km2), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km2. Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of a modelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G., 2012. Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 229–247. 相似文献
20.
Sophal Try Shigenobu Tanaka Kenji Tanaka Takahiro Sayama Maochuan Hu Ty Sok Chantha Oeurng 《水文研究》2020,34(22):4350-4364
Projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future precipitation and flooding is critical for the development of social infrastructure under climate change. The Mekong River is among the world's large-scale rivers severely affected by climate change. This study aims to define the duration of precipitation contributing to peak floods based on its correlation with peak discharge and inundation volume in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). We assessed the changes in precipitation and flood frequency using a large ensemble Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). River discharge in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and flood inundation in the LMB were simulated by a coupled rainfall-runoff and inundation (RRI) model. Results indicated that 90-day precipitation counting backward from the day of peak flooding had the highest correlation with peak discharge (R2 = .81) and inundation volume (R2 = .81). The ensemble mean of present simulation of d4PDF (1951–2010) showed good agreement with observed extreme flood events in the LMB. The probability density of 90-day precipitation shifted from the present to future climate experiments with a large variation of mean (from 777 to 900 mm) and SD (from 57 to 96 mm). Different patterns of sea surface temperature significantly influence the variation of precipitation and flood inundation in the LMB in the future (2051–2110). Extreme flood events (50-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year return periods) showed increases in discharge, inundation area, and inundation volume by 25%–40%, 19%–36%, and 23%–37%, respectively. 相似文献