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1.
Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by floods. However, few empirical studies have estimated the damage that can be avoided by implementing such flood damage mitigation measures. This study estimates potential damage savings and the cost-effectiveness of specific flood damage mitigation measures that were implemented by households during major flood events in France. For this purpose, data about flood damage experienced and household flood preparedness were collected using a survey of 885 French households in three flood-prone regions that face different flood hazards. Four main conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, using regression analysis results in improved estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation measures than methods used by earlier studies that compare mean damage suffered between households who have, and who have not, taken these measures. Second, this study has provided empirical insights showing that some mitigation measures can substantially reduce damage during floods. Third, the effectiveness of the mitigation measures is very regional dependent, which can be explained by the different characteristics of the flood hazard in our sample areas that experience either slow onset river flooding or more rapid flash and coastal flooding. Fourth, the cost-efficiency of the flood damage mitigation measures depends strongly on the flood probability faced by households.  相似文献   

2.
Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

3.
Insights into flood mitigation behaviour are important because of the ongoing shift to risk-based flood management approaches in Europe and worldwide, which envisage a contribution from flood-prone households to risk reduction. The recent literature on factors that influence flood mitigation behaviour indicates that flood-coping appraisal is an important variable to understand and explain flood mitigation behaviour. Coping appraisal originates from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), and refers to the cognitive process that people undergo when evaluating their own ability to avoid a certain risk. However, the empirical literature on the importance of coping appraisal is still scarce, and, in particular, little is known about the independent influence of the three single components of coping appraisal on precautionary behaviour: namely, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost. This study presents the results of a recent survey among 752 flood-prone households along the river Rhine in order to provide detailed insights into the influence of the components of flood-coping appraisal on four different types of flood mitigation behaviour: structural building measures, adapted building use, the deployment of flood barriers, and the purchase of flood insurance. The results confirm that flood-coping appraisal is an important variable in terms of precautionary behaviour. In particular, both response efficacy and self-efficacy contribute to the models which explain the four different types of flood-mitigation behaviour. Based on these findings, it is concluded that risk communication should focus more strongly on the potential of flood-mitigation measures to effectively reduce or avoid flood damage, as well as on information about how to implement such measures in practice.  相似文献   

4.
This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist; yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation.  相似文献   

5.
With increasing flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing flood protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded flood protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental flood protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing flood risk models used to assess developments in future flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to flood-proof buildings as public protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme flood events increases considerably when governments provide high protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox.  相似文献   

6.
Proactive flood damage mitigation on the household level is seen as a crucial element of comprehensive flood risk management. The ongoing socio-economic development and climate change will further increase the relevance of flood risks in the future. This paper analyses the causal effect of flood experience on mitigation decisions of households. It contributes to the emerging literature on the determinants of private flood mitigation and adopts data which has rarely been used in the field: Instead of cross-sectional data, longitudinal data of household surveys before and after a major flood event in Germany is used (N > 7,400). Flood experience is elicited by three different data sources: reports of heads of households, issuance of flood alerts, and damage reports of the insurance industry. The results show a causal effect of insured flood damage on private flood mitigation and a correlation of mitigation with self-reported flood experience. The estimated effects differ for mitigation types (higher for behavioural options, such as “adapted use”) and household types (higher for better educated heads of households).  相似文献   

7.
Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale.  相似文献   

8.
The need to adapt to climate change impacts, whilst simultaneously limiting greenhouse gas emissions, requires that the government’s efforts are joined by public action. In England and Wales, housing contributes significantly to the emissions and many properties are at risk of flooding. This paper investigates the preparedness of homeowners in England and Wales to make changes to their homes in response to the predicted effects of climate change. A telephone survey of 961 homeowners investigated their interest in purchasing mitigation and adaptation improvements against their concern about climate change, awareness of flood risk and attribution of responsibility for action. Whilst the majority of homes had some energy-saving improvements, few were found to have property-level flood protection. The high levels of awareness about climate change and flooding were coupled with the perception of risks as low. Whilst some respondents accepted personal responsibility for action, most believed that the authorities were responsible for flood protection, and would not pay the costs required to make their home more energy-efficient and better prepared for the eventuality of floods. The results suggest that there is scope for further improvement of energy-saving measures, and that the levels of adoption of flood-protection measures are very low. Multi-faceted strategies, including more effective communication of risks and responsibilities, incentives, and material support for the poorest, will need to be developed to overcome the current reluctance by homeowners to invest in flood-protection measures and further energy conservation solutions in the future.  相似文献   

9.
There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios.  相似文献   

10.
The main objective of this study is to simulate household choice behavior under varying climate change scenarios using choice experiments. Economic welfare measures are derived for society’s willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce climate change induced flood risks through private insurance and willingness to accept compensation (WTAC) for controlled flooding under varying future risk exposure levels. Material flood damage and loss of life are covered in the insurance policy experiment, while the WTAC experiment also captures the economic value of immaterial flood damage such as feelings of discomfort, fear and social disruption. The results show that WTP and WTAC are substantial, suggesting a more prominent role of external social damage costs in cost-benefit analysis of climate change and flood mitigation policies.  相似文献   

11.
Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.  相似文献   

12.
Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ??upper bound?? climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690?C$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.  相似文献   

13.
The risks to human populations in coastal areas are changing due to climate and socio-economic changes, and these trends are predicted to accelerate during the twenty-first century. To understand these changing risks, and the resulting choices and pathways to successful management and adaptation, broad-scale integrated assessment is essential. Due to their complexity the two risks of flooding and erosion are usually managed independently, yet frequently they are interconnected by longshore exchange of sediments and the resulting broad scale morphological system behaviour. In order to generate new insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practises on coastal erosion and flood risk, we present an integrated assessment of 72 km of shoreline over the twenty-first century on the East Anglian coast of England which is a site of significant controversy about how to manage coastal flood and erosion risks over the twenty-first century. A coupled system of hydrodynamic, morphological, reliability and socio-economic models has been developed for the analysis, implemented under scenarios of coastal management, climate and socio-economic change. The study is unique in coastal management terms because of the large spatial scale and extended temporal scale over which the analysis is quantified. This study for the first time quantifies what has for some years been argued qualitatively: the role of sediments released from cliff erosion in protecting neighbouring low-lying land from flooding. The losses and benefits are expressed using the common currency of economic risk. The analysis demonstrates that over the twenty-first century, flood risk in the study area is expected to be an order of magnitude greater than erosion risk. Climate and socio-economic change and coastal management policy have a significant influence on flood risk. This study demonstrates that the choices concerning coastal management are profound, and there are clear tradeoffs between erosion and flood impacts.  相似文献   

14.
Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.  相似文献   

15.
The literature suggests that extreme weather experiences have potential to increase climate change engagement by influencing the way people perceive the proximity and implications of climate change. Yet, limited attention has been directed at investigating how individual differences in the subjective interpretation of extreme weather events as indications of climate change moderate the link between extreme weather experiences and climate change attitudes. This article contends that subjective attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a necessary condition for extreme weather experiences to be translated into climate change mitigation responses, and that subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change is influenced by the psychological and social contexts in which individuals appraise their experiences with extreme weather. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, personal experience of this flooding event is shown to only directly predict perceived threat from climate change, and indirectly predict climate change mitigation responses, among individuals who subjectively attributed the floods to climate change. Additionally, subjective attribution of the floods to climate change is significantly predicted by pre-existing climate change belief, political affiliation and perceived normative cues. Attempts to harness extreme weather experiences as a route to engaging the public must be attentive to the heterogeneity of opinion on the attributability of extreme weather events to climate change.  相似文献   

16.
This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perceptions and the sensitivity of institutions. To capture this, the paper adopted a multi-sited ethnographic approach. Acknowledging that there is no central locus of representation that can unveil the working of disaster response in Mozambique, the paper brings together five vignettes of research in different ‘sites’ of concern to the rise in floods in Mozambique. These are the politics of climate change adaptation at the national institutional level, societal responses to increased flooding, local people's responses to floods, the evacuation and resettlement programme following the 2007 flood. The paper finds how adaptation to climate change becomes part of everyday politics, how actors aim to incorporate responses into the continuation of their normal behavior and how elites are better positioned to take advantage of adaptation programmes than the vulnerable people that were targeted. It argues that climate change adaptation must be made consonant with historically grown and ongoing social and institutional processes. It concludes with lessons that the analysis and methodology of the research can provide for the practice of climate change adaptation.  相似文献   

17.
Long-lasting floods buffer the thermal regime of the Pampas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The presence of large water masses influences the thermal regime of nearby land shaping the local climate of coastal areas by the ocean or large continental lakes. Large surface water bodies have an ephemeral nature in the vast sedimentary plains of the Pampas (Argentina) where non-flooded periods alternate with flooding cycles covering up to one third of the landscape for several months. Based on temperature records from 17 sites located 1 to 700 km away from the Atlantic coast and MODIS land surface temperature data, we explore the effects of floods on diurnal and seasonal thermal ranges as well as temperature extremes. In non-flooded periods, there is a linear increase of mean diurnal thermal range (DTR) from the coast towards the interior of the region (DTR increasing from 10 to 16 K, 0.79 K/100 km, r 2 = 0.81). This relationship weakens during flood episodes when the DTR of flood-prone inland locations shows a decline of 2 to 4 K, depending on surface water coverage in the surrounding area. DTR even approaches typical coastal values 500 km away from the ocean in the most flooded location that we studied during the three flooding cycles recorded in the study period. Frosts-free periods, a key driver of the phenology of both natural and cultivated ecosystems, are extended by up to 55 days during floods, most likely as a result of enhanced ground heat storage across the landscape (~2.7 fold change in day-night heat transfer) combined with other effects on the surface energy balance such as greater night evaporation rates. The reduced thermal range and longer frost-free periods affect plant growth development and may offer an opportunity for longer crop growing periods, which may not only contribute to partially compensating for regional production losses caused by floods, but also open avenues for flood mitigation through higher plant evapotranspirative water losses.  相似文献   

18.
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5?×?0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between ?9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.  相似文献   

19.
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.  相似文献   

20.
Climate change leads to more frequent and severe flooding, urging cities to adapt to protect their populations and assets. Despite exacerbated hazards, governments repeatedly draw on ‘tried-and-true’ approaches to protect the status quo, often with serious adverse effects for the poor and vulnerable. Yet, such dominant approaches do not go unchallenged as the media and other actors prompt public debate to assess flood impacts, scrutinise government decisions, and perhaps even promote alternative practices. News outlets are not, however, balanced or value-free; the events portrayed and the voices (and knowledges) recognised and included in media coverage deeply influence whether and how flooding is incorporated in policy. Focusing on São Paulo, Brazil, we examine how the media framed flood events and conveyed solutions during the city’s worst floods in recorded history. We demonstrate how competing media outlets largely depicted flooding as a natural phenomenon to be solved by governments and experts through existing techno-managerial practices, mirroring governmental partisan plans for adaptive action. In doing so, the media failed to offer a democratic space for public discussion, citizen contestation, and the advancement of alternative trajectories for adaptation. We posit that inclusive trajectories that address entrenched vulnerabilities and projected climate change will benefit from rigorous ethical debates around the media’s role in disaster coverage while strategically leveraging alternative media outlets as public pedagogy and agenda-setting tools.  相似文献   

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