共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
1.
We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks. 相似文献
2.
Most of the present earthquake early warning systems are based on broadband or strong motion recordings. How-ever, the short-period instruments are still deployed. It is well-known that short-period recordings have saturation problems for large earthquakes when estimating the size of an earthquake. Thus, it is necessary to make clear the magnitude at which saturation starts to occur for the commonly used τc and Pd measurements, respectively. To investigate the possibility of using short-period seismic recordings for earthquake early warning, we conducted a simulated experiment using the strong motion data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including its main shock and 31 aftershocks, with magnitude span from 4 to 7.6. The strong motion acceleration recordings were convolved with the instrument response of short-period seismographs in northern China to simulate short-period seismograms. Parameters τc and Pd from the first-three-second seismograms were calculated for the simulated short-period recordings and compared with that obtained by the original strong ground motion recordings. The result showed that to some extent, short-period recordings can be used for threshold earthquake early warning, while the magnitude saturation of Pd estimation can be up to 6.5, better than τc estimation. 相似文献
3.
The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass M_S8.1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a M_S8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of M_S7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of M_S5.0 and M_S6.0 earthquakes during 2002～2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years. 相似文献
4.
Paleoearthquakes in the Yanqing-Huailai basin and on the Haiyuan fault are studied in detail.The result indicates that the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is of a wide variety.Characteristic earthquakes show the behavior characteristics of the activity of most faults,butthey are of different grades,the recurrence interval of large earthquakes is of staged nature,and the interaction between faults has effects on the recurrence sequence of large earthquakes.Thus,when the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is staged in time or when thegradation of characteristic earthquakes has led to a sharp difference in recurrence intervalbetween paleoearthquakes of different intensities,for estimating the large earthquake risk bythe deterministic method and time-dependent probabilistic method,it is necessary to calculatethe recurrence interval value separately for each specific stage or grade in order that theaverage recurrence interval values of different stages can be determined. 相似文献
5.
It has been observed for a long time that the high-frequency fall-off constant of source spectra is about 2 for "large" earthquakes and about 3 for "small" earthquakes. For earthquakes between "large" and "small", the highfrequency fall-off constant is not an integer and varies with the size of the earthquake. In this article such a variation is explained in the perspective of the scaling of stress drop, which proposes a new approach to the study of the scaling of stress drop using seismic data with lower quality of completeness and high-frequency characteristics. The study on the source spectra of the aftershocks of the 1988 Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan, China earthquake shows that the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra and its variation with the size of earthquake can be well explained by the model that for "large" earthquakes the stress drop is a constant while for "small" earthquakes the stress drop increases with the size of the earthquake. 相似文献
6.
7.
The current calibration function used in calculating the magnitude of natural earthquakes within 5km is a constant; a fact that causes several serious difficulties for the calculation of the magnitude of small and shallow-focus earthquakes. According to the attenuation law of explosions and the propagation theory of elastic waves, the calibration function is calculated for near field quakes from 0kin to 5kin. Magnitudes of two aftershock sequences are calculated. The magnitudes of most explosion earthquakes are small, ranging mainly from magnitude -0.5 to 1.0. The M-t chart of the explosive aftershocks is completely different from that of strong earthquake aftershocks. It not only shows positive columnar lines indieatJng large magnitudes but also short negative columnar lines indicating small magnitudes. 相似文献
8.
Gao Wenxue Gao QinhuaState Seismological Bureau Beijing China Institute of Geology SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1995,(2)
This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas 相似文献
9.
Liu Xiqiang 《中国地震研究》2004,18(1):42-53
Based on the Gauss linear frequency-modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time-frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthquake focus mechanism, wave traveling path and its attenuation characteristics in focal area or near field. In order to test its validity, we select the natural earthquakes and explosion or collapse events whose focus mechanisms vary obviously, and some natural earthquakes located at the same site or in a very small area. The study indicates that the time-frequency energy attenuation factors of the natural earthquakes are obviously different with that of explosion or collapse events, and the change of the time-frequency energy attenuation factors is relatively stable for the earthquakes under the normal seismicity background. Using the above-mentioned method, it is expected to offer a useful criterion for strong earthquake prediction by continuous earthquake observation. 相似文献
10.
《中国地震研究》1997,(2)
Considering two seismic parameters,energy and the frequency of an earthquake as a whole from the definition of information gain in entropy,we study the information gain of M≥6.0 earthquakes from the world earthquake catalogue during 1900-1992.The results show that the information gain decreases before strong earthquakes.Our study of the recent seismic tendency of large earthquakes shows that the probability of earthquakes with M≥8.5 is low for the near future around the world.The information gain technique provides a new approach to tracing and predicting earthquakes from the data of moderate and small earthquakes. 相似文献
11.
Gu Jinping Feng Deyi Chen Xingdong and Yang CaixiaSeismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province Nanjing China Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality Tianjin China 《中国地震研究》1995,(4)
The method of fuzzy mathematics for simultaneous assessment of time and intensity of earthquake hazards has been studied.This method is based on fundamental statistical indices of regional seismicity.Applying the retrieval method of fuzzy information,we can classify the time and intensity into several intervals and classes of seismic activity,then the possible time interval of large earthquakes with magnitude of M≥Ms can be estimated in a given region.Based on the preceding idea,an FRPP program is constructed.For the automatic data processing when this method is used,it is very important to design the statistical process of each index decomposition so that the program could be fit to a different sample discussed.There are some functions in the FRPP program.The man-made impact on results is reduced to the minimum as far as possible.Computation time is saved.There is a menu on which time interval,index,intensity class,and output data all can be selected.The catalog input that can be displayed on the scre 相似文献
12.
In this paper, the precursor response characteristics of digital fluid caused by the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yushu M7.1 earthquakes are studied, and the response difference of the observations of Wuliying well to the two strong earthquakes is compared. The result shows that the abnormal fluid response has a certain relationship with earthquake size and epicenter distance. The greater the earthquake, and the closer it is to the epicenter from the observatory, the more sensitive the response will be to fluid anomalies. Abnormal Helium release was first observed before both strong earthquakes in the fluid precursor observation. The release intensity is related to earthquake magnitude; the larger the magnitude, the stronger the abnormal changes. The large change in He release in a short period after the Wenchuan earthquake may be related to the continuous activity of strong aftershocks and the structural adjustment after the earthquake. Helium release increased significantly after both earthquakes, as contributed by the abnormal deep-sited Helium release. However, this process may be connected to the annual change from July to September or the hot-reservoir type gas release in the Wuliying well. In the earthquake preparation process, a large number of deep-derived Helium is released into the geothermal system and the entire composition is changed. Temporally, this gas release appears later than fault-type gas release, and the disappearance time of this anomaly is also much later. The response difference of the fluid precursor to the two strong earthquakes may be related to differences of deep structural setting and dynamic mechanism. It also shows there is a stronger correlation between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt and North China region than the Yushu M7.1 earthquake in the internal Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Helium gas can be a sensitive indicator for monitoring abnormal deep-gas activity of the region where the observation station is located. Hence, observation and research should be strengthened in the future. 相似文献
13.
Zhang Guomin Li Li and Jiao MingruoCenter for Analysis Prediction China Seismological Bureau Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1999,(2)
There may be various anomalies from fields of multi-discipline before large earthquakes, including seismological anomalies and the anomalous changes in crustal deformation, underground fluids, geochemistry, geomagnetic fields, ground resistivity, etc. Precursors of a single discipline only reflect the process of earthquake preparation from one aspect. Only when various precursors from multi-disciplined fields are put into a unified process of earthquake preparation can the process be understood and identified comprehensively. The comprehensive methods used in earthquake prediction are outlined in this paper. The relationship that the forthcoming main shock bears with the precursory features such as the time-space distribution, the order of the precursors, etc. is analyzed. Research shows that a few of the main shocks can be predicted with the comprehensive methods to some extent. 相似文献
14.
On October 27, 2001, a large earthquake with Ms6.0, named the Yongsheng earthquake, occurred along the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault in Yongsheng County, Yuunan Province. It is the largest event to occur along the Chenghai fault in the last 200 years. The seismo-geological survey shows that the seismogenic fault, which is the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghal fault, takes left-lateral strike-slip as its dominant movement pattern. According to differences in vertical motion, motion time, landforms and scales, the Chenhai fault can be divided into eight segments. The Jinshajiang segment has a vertical dislocation rate of 0.4mm/a, far lower than the mean rate of the Chenghai fault, about 2.0 mm/a. It‘ s deduced that the two sides of Jinshajiang segment “stuck“ tightly and hindered the strike-slip of the Chenghai fault. The strong earthquake distribution before this event shows that the Jinshajiang segment was in the seismic gap. The Chenghai fault, as a boundary of tectonic sub-blocks, makes the Northwest Yunnan block and the Middle Yunnan block move clockwise, and their margins move oppositely along the Chenghai fault. In the motion process of the Chenghai fault, structural hindrance and the seismic gap of strong earthquakes are propitious to the concentration and accumulation of structure stress. As a result, the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake occurred. The Sujiazhuang-Shangangfu segment is similar to the Jinshajiang segment with a low vertical motion rate of 0.3 mm/a and in the seismic gap. So it‘s postulated that the segment may become a new structure hindrance, and the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake may trigger the occurrence of future large earthquakes along this segment. 相似文献
15.
The present study deals with dynamic analysis of arch concrete dams, taking rotational components of earthquakes into account. A modified methodology was used to evaluate the rotational components of the earthquake. The translational components of the earthquake have been used in to obtain the rotational components of the earthquake, based on the intersecting isotropic elastic wave propagation. Two rotational components of Taft, Tabas and San-Fernando earthquakes are evaluated based on the translational components of the earthquakes and considering frequency dependencies of incident angle and wave velocity. Finally, dynamic analyses of Morrow Point Dam are presented to evaluate the effects of combined translational and rotational components on the seismic response of the dam. Various conditions of reservoirs, including full and empty state, are considered in the analyses. Fluid–structure interaction was completely taken into account. It was realized that incorporating rotational components increased the maximum compressive and tensile stresses in both empty and full reservoir analyses. Distribution of maximum tensile stresses is very sensitive to the rotational components of the earthquake. Also, it can be concluded that the segregated effect of the rocking component on the response of concrete dams is more effective than the sole effect of the torsional component. 相似文献
16.
IntroductionEarthquake prediction is still one of most difficult problems in the world although the researches on it in China have been done for more than 30 years. A lot of experience, however, has been accumulated and some theoretical study on earthquake prediction conducted so that some prediction could be issued prior to earthquakes to obtain real effectiveness of mitigating disasters from these earthquakes to some extent, in China. The annual national consulting convention of earthquake … 相似文献
17.
After the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties of Gansu Province on July 22, 2013, we preliminarily estimated the earthquake sequence to be a main shock-aftershock type based on the history of moderate-strong earthquake sequences in this area. As time went on, there were more aftershock events. These could be used for further analysis, and then for further decision on the earthquake sequence type. Finally, we determined the Ms6.6 earthquake sequence that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties, Gansu Province as having been a main shock-aftershock type, with the largest Ms5.6 aftershock having occurred on the same day as the main Ms6.6 shock, from a comprehensive analysis of the historical characteristics of moderatety strong earthquakes of the earthquake zone, and the space-time evolution characteristics and parameters of the earthquake sequence. These provided a correct basis for anti- earthquake relief work and played an important role in mitigating the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the disturbed soci- ety after the earthquake in the earthquake zone and its neighboring areas. Reviewing the forecasting process and the re- sults, we found that we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earthquake that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties on July 22, 2013 several years before it occurred. The magnitude and location of the earthquake had been predicted accurately, and the accuracy of the prediction was much higher than any other example in Chinese earth- quake prediction history. Forecasting on a monthly scale, we had indicated at the monthly meeting on earthquake prediction at the end of February, 2013 that there would be a risk of a moderately strong earthquake in Gansu Province from the change in moderately strong earthquake activity on the Chinese mainland. Even for short and impending earthquake prediction from several days to several dozens of days, we had proposed the likelihood of a moderate-strong earthquake happening in Gansu Province and the adjacent areas from the results of previous studies and the cases of earthquakes with MI ≥ 4.0 from the time before the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred. In a meeting about earthquake prediction held several days before the occurrence of the Ms6.6 event, we made the prediction that there would be an earthquake of M≥ 5.0 happening somewhere in Gansu Province and the surrounding area within dozens of days. The fact we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earth-quake on a several-year scale, as well as over a short time period to some extent, reinforces our belief that earthquakes can be forecast. Even with our present level of understanding, we can still capture some information on the gestation and occurrence of earthquakes before the arrival of a disaster. However, in order to achieve the goal of earthquake prediction in China, earthquake scientists still need to make arduous efforts. As long as earthquake scientists use the correct approach, and government supplies the necessary manpower and material resources to predict earthquakes, we believe that there will be a hope to achieve the aim of earthquake prediction with a relief effect. It is promising that we have achieved at least one or two earthquake forecasts. 相似文献
18.
19.
Two great earthquakes occurred in the sea northwest of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004 and March 29,2005. The observation of water levels in Yunnan yielded abundant information about the two earthquakes. This paper presents the water level response to the two earthquakes in Yunnan and makes a preliminary analysis. It is observed that the large earthquake- induced abnormal water level change could be better recorded by analog recording than by digital recording. The large earthquake-caused water level rise or decline may be attributed to the effect of seismic waves that change the stress in tectonic units, and is correlated with the geological structure where the well is located. The water level response mode in a well is totally the same for earthquakes occurring on the same fault and with the same fracture mode. The only difference is that the response amplitude increases with the growth of the earthquake magnitude. 相似文献
20.
The seismic response of an isolated vertical, cylindrical, extra-large liquefi ed natural gas (LNG) tank by a multiple friction pendulum system (MFPS) is analyzed. Most of the extra-large LNG tanks have a fundamental frequency which involves a range of resonance of most earthquake ground motions. It is an effective way to decrease the response of an isolation system used for extra-large LNG storage tanks under a strong earthquake. However, it is diff icult to implement in practice with common isolation bearings due to issues such as low temperature, soft site and other severe environment factors. The extra-large LNG tank isolated by a MFPS is presented in this study to address these problems. A MFPS is appropriate for large displacements induced by earthquakes with long predominant periods. A simplifi ed fi nite element model by Malhotra and Dunkerley is used to determine the usefulness of the isolation system. Data reported and statistically sorted include pile shear, wave height, impulsive acceleration, convective acceleration and outer tank acceleration. The results show that the isolation system has excellent adaptability for different liquid levels and is very effective in controlling the seismic response of extra-large LNG tanks. 相似文献