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汶川Ms8.0级地震驱动的构造抬升作用和滑坡、泥石流剥蚀作用如何影响龙门山的地貌生长是目前争论的焦点。本文运用GIS技术,定量计算了湔江流域的坡度、地形起伏度、面积—高程积分等地貌参数,根据这些参数的计算结果,对湔江流域的构造地貌特征进行了量化分析;以汶川Ms8.0级地震重灾区湔江海子河右岸流域的滑坡、泥石流为例,并且利用野外实测资料、卫星照片及数字高程资料等,对于汶川地震驱动的构造抬升与滑坡、泥石流的表面侵蚀过程进行研究,获得以下初步认识:(1)湔江流域的映秀—北川断层以北地区地貌处于"壮年期",坡度、地形起伏度大;(2)汶川Ms8.0级地震后该地区发生了严重的同震滑坡及震后滑坡、泥石流灾害,海子河右岸流域的同震抬升量为5 339×104m3,同震滑坡量为3 852×104m3,同震抬升量大于同震滑坡量,地貌出现生长现象;(3)地震产生的泥石流量应略大于1 000×104m3,同震滑坡物质的30%转化为了泥石流量,因其海子沟右岸陡峻的坡度,绝大部分的泥石流冲入海子河,成为河道沉积物;(4)以目前湔江海子河流水搬运能力,在能够完全搬运出同震滑坡物质的前提下,同震滑坡物质搬运出龙门山至少需要283.2 a,表明在一个地震周期内,龙门山的同震滑坡物质可以搬运出龙门山;(5)准周期性相当震级地震引起的构造抬升及其均衡反弹作用也是龙门山的形成有重要作用的因素之一。 相似文献
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2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震震前与同震滑坡空间分布规律对比分析 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
2014年8月3日,云南省昭通市鲁甸县发生了MS6.5地震,地震诱发了大量滑坡。文中以牛栏江沿线鲁甸县、巧家县和会泽县交界处面积为44.13km2的区域为研究区,开展地震震前与同震滑坡的空间分布规律对比分析。根据震前Google Earth高分辨率影像与震后0.2m分辨率的超高分辨率航片数据,分别建立了震前滑坡与同震滑坡数据库。结果表明,研究区内震前有284处滑坡,本次地震触发1 053处滑坡。借助10m×10m分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)数据,基于GIS平台提取研究区的高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、岩性、烈度、河流共7个主要因子,并利用滑坡的面积百分比(Landslide Areas Percentage,LAP)和点密度(Landslide Number Density,LND)对比分析震前与同震滑坡的空间分布规律。结果表明,震前与同震滑坡的易发高程区间分别为1 200m与1 200~1 300m。坡度越大越容易发生滑坡,其中坡度10°的区域由于距离河流很近,也为滑坡易发区。震前与同震滑坡发育的优势坡向都是近S向。当斜坡为凹坡时(曲率值为负值),滑坡易发性较高。地震烈度越大,越易发生同震滑坡。灰岩夹白云质灰岩分布区很容易发生滑坡,玄武岩和火山角砾岩分布区在地震力的作用下边坡的稳定性也大大降低。震前、同震滑坡的发生与到河流的距离大致呈现正相关性。震前滑坡LAP的峰值大多数都与震前已经存在的大型滑坡有密切的对应关系。 相似文献
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2005年10月8日发生的MW7.6克什米尔地震在喜马拉雅地区的巴基斯坦与印度的北部触发了数千个滑坡。这些滑坡密集分布于6个地貌—地质—人类活动环境区内。基于ASTER卫星影像和GIS技术,构建并分析了一个包含2252个滑坡的空间数据库。应用滑坡多元评估判据确定单次地震事件触发滑坡各个地震滑坡控制参数的重要性。这些控制参数包括岩性、断裂、坡度、坡向、高程、土地覆盖类型、河流与公路。结果展示了4类级别的滑坡易发区域。此外,结果还表明了岩性对滑坡的影响作用最大,尤其在岩石高度破碎区域,例如页岩、板岩、碎屑岩、石灰岩与白云岩。还有,距离断层、河流与公路较近也是滑坡发生的一个重要因素。滑坡也常常发生在坡向朝南的中海拔斜坡上。灌木林地、草原、农业用地也是滑坡易发区域,而森林覆盖的斜坡较少发育滑坡。研究区的1/3被滑坡极高易发区或高易发区所覆盖,需要开展快速的滑坡减灾措施。其余的区域为滑坡低易发区与中易发区,相对稳定。本文研究支持以下观点:(1)地震触发滑坡往往发生在地震滑坡控制参数相关的特定区域内;(2)在西喜马拉雅地区,森林砍伐与公路建设往往是同震滑坡或地震后短期内滑坡发生的重要控制因素。 相似文献
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以定量化地形因子为切入点的构造地貌学方法已成为活动构造研究的有效手段,被广泛用于定性或半定量解析地貌对新构造运动的响应及其演化过程。针对海原断裂带中东段现今地貌差异,以SRTM 90m分辨率DEM为基础,利用ArcGIS软件和Matlab程序脚本,提取了海原断裂带中东段高程、坡度、地形起伏、地形侵蚀以及河流陡峭系数等地形因子。从空间分布上看,上述各项地形因子沿断裂走向均呈现 “西高东低”的整体分布特征。西段海拔高、坡度陡、起伏大、侵蚀强、抬升快,中段和东段海拔低、坡度缓、起伏小、侵蚀弱、抬升慢,此外,在断裂带的东南尾端呈略微增加趋势,达到小范围内的峰值。在此基础上,通过对比分析地形因子与年降水量、基岩岩性,初步探讨了构造与降水、岩性等因素对地形地貌的控制作用,认为不同降水条件对地貌后期改造起显著作用,基岩岩性与现今地貌之间并无显著关系,该区域地貌类型主要受构造抬升差异所控制。沿断裂带走向上的现今地貌差异表明,西段处于相对快速的构造隆升和强挤压造山构造背景,中段由于受到黄河下切及河流冲积作用影响,地貌参数记录的抬升特征并不显著,而东段则反映出大型断裂带尾端挤压调整效应。 相似文献
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丽江—小金河断裂全新世活动强烈、地震频发，沿断裂带的滑坡地质灾害极为发育。以断裂带中南段两侧10 km为研究区，根据地质地理环境和滑坡发育特征，选取高程、坡度、坡向、距活动断裂距离、距河流水系距离、距道路距离、工程地质岩组、降雨量、土地利用类型以及地震动峰值加速度10个影响因子为评价指标，运用加权证据权模型，开展丽江—小金河断裂中南段滑坡易发性评价，基于自然断点法将滑坡易发程度划分为高易发、中等易发、低易发和非易发4个级别，评价结果AUC值为0.81。结果显示：(1)研究区内滑坡受坡度、断裂、水系、岩性因素的影响程度更高；(2)高易发区和中等易发区主要沿断裂带和金沙江等主要河流水系两侧分布，在玉龙县、松坪乡、大东乡等周边区域较集中；(3)西川乡处于高易发区，但目前滑坡灾害点较少，应加强关注。 相似文献
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2013年芦山地震滑坡空间分布分析——以太平镇东北方向的一个典型矩形区为例 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
选择2013年芦山地震中受到强烈地震动的太平镇东北方向一个20kmxl0km的矩形区作为研究区,开展芦山地震滑坡空间分析工作.基于震后野外调查与高分辨率航片人工目视解译法,建立了研究区内地震滑坡空间分布图.结果表明,在研究区内芦山地震至少触发了688处滑坡,区域内滑坡点密度为3.44个/km2.统计了地震滑坡密度与地形因子、地层岩性、地震因子的关系.滑坡最易发高程为1 600～1 800m;滑坡密度大体随着坡度的增加而增加;E与SE方向是地震滑坡的易发坡向与高发坡向;凸坡的地震滑坡易发性最高.二叠系阳新组(Py)的灰岩与白云岩、元古界花岗岩(Pt)是地震滑坡的易发岩性.地震因子与滑坡密度的统计结果表明,大体上PGA值越大,地震烈度越高,地震滑坡越易发生;地震滑坡与距离双石-大川断裂的统计结果表明在双石-大川断裂的出露处地震滑坡密度未发生突变.因子的交互统计结果表明了坡度与PGA这2个因子作用于地震滑坡的独立性. 相似文献
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2008年MW7.9汶川地震导致龙门山断裂发生强烈地壳变形，同时引发的巨量同震滑坡加速了该地区的地表剥蚀和河流侵蚀.然而，目前尚缺少系统的数据定量研究滑坡物质的运移以及河流侵蚀速率随时间的演化规律，这些对理解龙门山前缘物质的再分配以及强震对活动造山带地形塑造的作用至关重要.为此，本研究在汶川地震后的6年间，对震区沱江上游3条支流湔江、石亭江、绵远河流域进行了多期次的定点现代河沙采样.通过系统测量河沙中的石英10Be浓度，并与震前已发表的数据进行对比，发现如下基本特点：（1）震后河沙10Be浓度均有明显降低，表明同震滑坡物质对河沙的稀释作用；（2）震后河流对河沙的运移量增加为震前的1.3~18.5倍，因此震后龙门山地区侵蚀速率短期显著增加；（3）初步估计得到汶川地震产生的滑坡物质被完全运移出造山带所需要的时间至少为100~4000年，接近龙门山地区强震复发周期；（4）震间和同震产生的构造变形和地表剥蚀在空间上具有互补性.考虑到地表剥蚀引起的地壳均衡反弹效应，认为类似汶川地震的强震有利于龙门山的隆升.认识震前、震时和震后的地壳变形及侵蚀过程有助于更好地理解单次强震事件对高原边界龙门山地形演化的作用. 相似文献
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地震应急是减轻地震灾害的重要途径之一。地震应急工作具有时间紧迫、事关重大的特点。2017年8月8日四川九寨沟MS7.0级地震发生后，为快速、准确地提供地震引发的滑坡灾害分布，本研究基于震后第一天获取到的高分辨率遥感影像（高分二号卫星影像、北京二号卫星影像），通过人工目视解译的方法初步建立了四川九寨沟地震滑坡编目。结果表明，该地震至少触发了622处同震滑坡，分布在沿使用影像边界框定的面积为3919km2的区域内。本研究还利用这个地震滑坡编目，统计了九寨沟地震滑坡数量和滑坡点密度（LND）与地形（坡度、坡向）、地震（地震烈度、震中距）等因素的关系。结果表明九寨沟地震滑坡多发生在坡度为20°—50°的区域内，滑坡的易发性随着坡度的增加而增加。受地震波传播方向的影响，E、SE向是地震滑坡较易发生的坡向。滑坡的易发程度和地震烈度呈正相关，即随着烈度的增大，滑坡易发性增大。滑坡易发性还随着震中距增加而降低，这是由于地震波能量随震中距的增加而衰减导致的。 相似文献
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利用GIS技术详细研究汶川地震在甘肃省陇南市武都区和文县触发的滑坡地质灾害的分布规律及其与地震烈度、地形坡度、断层、高程、地层岩性的相关关系，采用基于GIS的加权信息量模型的崩塌滑坡危险性评价方法，对研究区的地震滑坡危险性进行学科分析。结果表明：极高危险区在高程上主要分布在集水高程区，高度危险区主要沿白水江、白龙江等主干河流两侧极高易发区的边界向两侧扩展，轻度和极轻度危险区面积占比较小，主要分布在低烈度、活动断裂不发育、人类活动微弱的高海拔地区，另外国道G215沿极高危险性区域分布明显；利用危险性等级分区结果统计人口公里格网数据，得到武都区和文县潜在影响人口，发现研究区约78万人将受到地震滑坡灾害的潜在影响。 相似文献
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以地震为代表的构造运动在地球地貌演化中起着根本性的作用,其过程包括同震抬升或沉降和地震滑坡侵蚀.地震诱发的滑坡向河流输送大量的松散物质,可造成流域物质输移通量成倍增加,且持续时间可达几十年或更久.在暴露新鲜岩石的同时,地震滑坡还剥蚀植被和土壤,这些作用都极大地影响着区域的碳输移.越来越多的研究尝试量化地震对地表过程影响... 相似文献
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On August 3, 2014, an MW6.5 earthquake occurred in Ludian County, Yunnan Province, which triggered significant landslides and caused serious ground damages and casualties. Compared with the existing events of earthquake-triggered landslides, the spatial distribution of co-seismic landslides during the Ludian earthquake showed a special pattern. The relationship between the co-seismic landslides and the epicenter or the known faults is not obvious, and the maximum landslide density doesn't appear in the area near the epicenter. Peak ground acceleration (PGA), which usually is used to judge the limit boundary of co-seismic landslide distribution, cannot explain this distribution pattern. Instead of correlating geological and topographic factors with the co-seismic landslide distribution pattern, this study focuses on analyzing the influence of seismic landslide susceptibility on the co-seismic distribution. Seismic landslide susceptibility comes from a calculation of critical acceleration values using a simplified Newmark block model analysis and represents slope stability under seismic loading. Both DEM (SRTM 90m)and geological map (1 ︰ 200￣￣000)are used as inputs to calculate critical acceleration values. Results show that the most susceptible slopes with the smallest critical accelerations are generally concentrated along the banks of rivers. The stable slopes, which have the larger critical accelerations and are comparably stable, are in the places adjacent to the epicenter. Comparison of the distribution of slope stability and the real landslides triggered by the 2014 MW6.1 Ludian earthquake shows a good spatial correlation, meaning seismic landslide susceptibility controls the co-seismic landslide distributions to a certain degree. Moreover, our study provides a plausible explanation on the special distribution pattern of Ludian earthquake triggered landslides. Also the paper discusses the advantages of using the seismic landslide susceptibility as a basic map, which will offer an additional tool that can be used to assist in post-disaster response activities as well as seismic landslides hazards zonation. 相似文献
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CHARACTERISTICS AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF LARGE ROCK AVALANCHES TRIGGERED BY THE LUDIAN MS6.5 EARTHQUAKE AT HONGSHIYAN AND GANJIAZHAI 
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下载免费PDF全文 The 3 August 2014 Ludian, Yunnan MS6.5 earthquake has spawned more than 1, 000 landslides which are from several tens to several millions and over ten millions of cubic meters in volumes. Among them, the Hongshiya and Ganjiazai landslides are the biggest two with volumes over 1 000×104m3. The Hongshiya and Ganjiazai landslides are two typical landslides, the former belongs to tremendous rock avalanche, and the latter belongs to unconsolidated werthering deposit landslide developed in concave mountain slope. Based on field investigations, causes and formation mechanism of the two landslides are discussed in this study. The neotectonic movement in the area maintains sustainable uplifting violently all the time since Cenozoic. The landform process accompanied with the regional tectonic uplifting is the violent downward erosion along the Jinshajiang River and its tributary, forming landforms of high mountains and canyons, deeply cut valleys, with great height difference. The regional seismo-tectonics situation suggests that:Ludian earthquake region is situated on the southern frontier boundary of Daliangshan secondary active block, and is seismically the strongest active area with one earthquake of magnitude greater than M5.0 occurring every 6 years. Frequent and strong seismicity produces accumulated effects on the ground rock to gradually lower the mechanical strength of slopes and their stability, which is the basis condition to generate large-scale collapse and landslide at Hongshiyan and Ganjiazhai. The occurring of Hongshiyan special large rock avalanche is associated with the large terrain height difference, steep slope, soft interlayer structure and unloading fissures and high-angle joints. The formation mechanism of Hongshiyan rock avalanche may have three stages as follows:Stage 1, when P wave arriving, under the situation of free surface, rocks shake violently, the pre-existent joints(in red)parallel to and normal to the river and unloading cracks are opened and connected. Stage 2, on the basis of the first stage, when S wave arriving, the ground movement aggravates. Joints(in green)along beds develop further, resulting in rock masses intersecting each other. Stage 3, rock masses lose stability, sliding downward, collapsing, and moving over a short distance along the sliding surface to the inside of the valley, blocking the river to form the dammed lake. The special large landslide at Ganjiazhai is a weathering layer landslide occurring in the middle-lower of a large concave slope. Its formation process may have two stages as follows:Firstly, under strong ground shaking and gravity, the ground rock-soil body around moves and assembles to the lower of the central axis of the large concave slope, which suffers the largest earthquake inertia force and firstly yields plastic damage to generate compression-expansion deformation, because of the largest water content and volume-weight within the loose soil of it. Secondly, in view of the steep slope, along with the compression, the plastic deformation area enlarges further in the lower of slope, giving rise to a tensional stress area along the middle of the slope. As soon as the tensional stress exceeds the tensile strength of the weathering layer, a tensional fracture will occur and the landslide rolls away immediately making use of momentum. This two large landslides are the basic typical ones triggered by the MS6.5 Ludian earthquake, and their causes and mechanism have a certain popular implication for the landslides occurring in this earthquake region. 相似文献
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本文利用研究区内13个地震台站2014年1月至12月的连续波形数据, 采用背景噪声互相关方法, 提取了2014年8月3日鲁甸MS6.5地震的同震波速变化。 结果表明, 鲁甸地震对介质波速的影响具有明显的空间差异性, 较大幅度的同震波速变化主要集中于则木河断裂—小江断裂及莲峰断裂区域。 其中, 莲峰断裂SW段和则木河断裂NW段区域的波速出现了较为明显的同震降低, 则木河断裂和小江断裂交界处则出现了明显的波速升高。 通过对比研究区内介质波速的同震变化与鲁甸地震对周边主要活动断裂应力积累的影响后发现, 波速变化与应力变化在空间分布上具有较高的一致性, 且两者的变化幅度也成正相关关系。 由此可以看出, 鲁甸地震造成的应力变化可能是地下介质波速变化的主要原因。 采用相同的方法对2014年4月5日永善MS5.1地震研究后发现, 永善地震后鲁甸地震震源区及其附近区域波速明显升高。 相似文献
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A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km2.Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m2)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m2 accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide. 相似文献
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EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY 2008 MS8.0 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE IN YINGXIU AREA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Strong earthquakes can not only trigger a large number of co-seismic landslides in mountainous areas, but also have an important impact on the development level of geological hazards in the disaster area. Usually, geological hazards caused by strong earthquakes will significantly increase and continue for a considerable period of time before they recover to the pre-earthquake level. Therefore, studying the evolution characteristics of landslides triggered by earthquake is particularly important for the prevention of geological disaster. In this paper, a 66km2 region in Yingxiu near the epicenter of the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, which was strongly disturbed by the earthquake, was investigated. Firstly, one high-resolution satellite image before the earthquake(April, 2005) and five high-resolution satellite images after the earthquake(June, 2008; April, 2011; April, 2013; May, 2015; May, 2017)were used to interpret and catalog multi-temporal landslide inventories. Secondly, seven primary factors were analyzed in the GIS platform, including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, stratum, lithology, and the distance from the nearest water system and the distance from seismogenic faults. Finally, the evolution of the landslide triggered by earthquake in this region was analyzed by comparing the landslide activity intensity in different periods, using the methods of correlation analysis, regression analysis, and single-factor statistical analysis. It was found that the total area of landslides in the study region decreased sharply from 2008 to 2017, with the area of the co-seismic landslide reducing from 21.41km2 to 1.33km2. This indicates that the magnitude of the landslides has recovered or is close to the pre-earthquake level. Moreover, correlation analysis shows that the elevation has a strong positive correlation with the distance from the nearest water system, and a weak positive correlation with the area. Meanwhile, there is a weak negative correlation between the distance from the nearest water system and the distance from seismogenic faults. Overall, the degree of landslide activity in the study region decreased over time, as well as the number of reactivated landslides and new landslides. The region where the area of earthquake triggered landslides decreased mainly concentrated at an elevation of 1 000m to 2 100m, a slope of 30° to 55°, an aspect of 40° to 180°, and a curvature of -2 to 2. In addition, the lithology of the Pengguan complex in the Yingxiu study region is more conducive to the occurrence of landslides, while the sedimentary rock is more conducive to the landslide recovery. When the distance from the nearest water system is more than 1 600m, the effect of the water system on the landslides gradually decreases. Also, the landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake in this area have the characteristics of the hanging wall effect, which means, the number of landslides in the northwestern region is much higher than that in the southeast side. 相似文献
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利用高分辨率无人机航拍影像,结合基本地质资料,分析了影响2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5地震震后崩塌滑坡分布的主要因素,使用M5'模型树算法建立了崩塌滑坡密度与其影响因子间的分段线性模型,并检验了该模型的预测性能。结果表明,地震诱发的崩塌滑坡分布受断层距、岩土体结构强度、坡度、植被条件等的影响,其中,断层距、岩土体结构强度及坡度等为主要影响因素;崩塌滑坡易发生在结构破裂区及坡度为38°~50°的区域,其分布密度随断层距的增加而减小;利用M5'模型树算法建立的模型体现出崩塌滑坡分布与其影响因子间复杂的非线性关系,模型检验结果显示,理论模型与实际关联函数间的相关系数达到0.88,因此,可利用该模型预测地震诱发的崩塌滑坡的分布。 相似文献
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为提高地震人员伤亡预评估的准确性,完善地震灾害损失评估模型,科学评估地震地质灾害可能造成的人员伤亡数量,以2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震滑坡人员死亡数据为样本,建立了一种基于公里网格单元的地震滑坡人员死亡率logistic回归模型。采用F检验法对所建模型的合理性进行检验,计算得到的F值无限接近于1,表明模型无限接近于完全模型,具有极好的数学统计意义。根据模型评估的死亡率反演得到鲁甸地震灾区滑坡致死人数为233人,比实际少17人,总精确度为93.20%,实际死亡人数与模型识别人数在空间上也有很好的一致性,说明计算得到的地震滑坡人员死亡率是实际死亡人数的良好指标。 相似文献
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GAO Yuxin XU Chong TIAN Yingying MA Siyuan SHEN Lingling LU Yongkun RAN Hongliu 《中国地震研究》2020,34(1):50-63
Using Google Earth software as a platform, this study has established an integrated database of both old and new landslides in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, China, and analyzed their development characteristics together with distribution rules, respectively. Based on the results, a total of 2 427 landslides occurred in the study area, including 2 144 new landslides and 283 old landslides, with a total area of about 104.8 km2. The new landslides are mostly in small-scales with an area less than 10 000 m2, while the area of individual old landslide is mostly larger than 10 000 m2. By analyzing the relationship between the two types of landslides and eight impact factors (i.e., elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope position, lithology, fault, regional Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), and average annual rainfall), the different individual influencing factors, distribution regularities and mechanisms of the two types of landslides are revealed. In detail, the main influencing factors of new landslides are elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope position, lithology, regional PGA and average annual rainfall, while the influencing factors of old landslides are mainly elevation, slope angle, and lithology. This study provides basic data and support for landslide assessment and further disaster reduction in Baoshan City. Besides, it also provides new constraints in deeply understanding the effect of different topographic and geological conditions, historical earthquakes, rainfall and other factors on the occurrence mechanisms of both new landslides and old landslides. 相似文献
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基于统计学习理论与地理信息系统(GIS)技术的地震滑坡灾害空间预测是一个重要的研究方向,其可以对相似地震条件下地震滑坡的发生区域进行预测.2010年4月14日07时49分(北京时间),青海省玉树县发生了Mw6.9级大地震,作者基于高分辨率遥感影像解译与现场调查验证的方法,圈定了2036处本次地震诱发滑坡,这些滑坡大概分布在一个面积为1455.3 km2的矩形区域内.本文以该矩形区域为研究区,以GIS与支持向量机(SVM)模型为基础,开展基于不同核函数的地震滑坡空间预测模型研究.应用GIS技术建立玉树地震滑坡灾害及相关滑坡影响因子空间数据库,选择高程、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率、坡位、水系、地层岩性、断裂、公路、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)共12个因子作为地震滑坡预测因子.以SVM模型为基础,基于线性核函数、多项式核函数、径向基核函数、S形核函数等4类核函数开展地震滑坡空间预测研究,分别建立了玉树地震滑坡危险性指数图、危险性分级图、预测结果图.4类核函数对应的模型正确率分别为79.87%,83.45%,84.16%,64.62%.基于不同的训练样本开展模型训练与讨论工作,表明径向基核函数是最适用于该地区的地震滑坡空间预测模型.本文为地震滑坡空间预测模型中核函数的科学选择提供了依据,也为地震区的滑坡防灾减灾工作提供了参考. 相似文献