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1.
利用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法, 将1951—2004年逐日的海平面气压场分型, 得到27种不同的环流型, 研究了大气环流型与我国东北地区降水的关系。给出了8种出现频率最高的主要环流型出现的规律及它们平均的环流形势, 分析了8种主要环流型下东北地区降水异常分布状况, 并选出东北地区资料齐全、有代表性的9个站点进行了深入细致地分析, 成功地建立了降水与环流型出现频率的统计关系, 并用此重建了9个代表站54年的降水序列。结果表明:Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法可以很好地应用于我国东北地区, 由此划分的环流型符合实际情况; 8种主要环流型与降水的空间分布特征有很好的对应关系; 所建立的9个代表站降水距平回归方程能够解释近54年各站的大部分降水变化, 进一步证明了东北地区降水与大气环流之间的密切关系。 相似文献
2.
Summary
Trans-scale relationships are established between fluctuations in the direction of the geostrophic flow over the British Isles
and spatial variations in rainfall over Devon and Cornwall, South West England. The rationale for using such an approach is
to provide the basis for assessing changes to the region’s rainfall climatology that may result from possible future enhanced
greenhouse effect forced alterations to large-scale wind flow patterns. A new method, the concentration factor (CF), that relates rainfall totals to the frequency of the flow, is applied to investigate spatial variations in rainfall totals
at twelve stations in the two counties under eight wind direction groups (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW). S and SW flow types
are found to produce the highest daily rainfall totals at all locations, with the three easterly groups (NE, E, SE) yielding
higher daily precipitation intensities than the maritime NW group. Inter-annual and seasonal variations in daily wind direction
– rainfall (WD/R) relationships are then assessed at two contrasting sites in Cornwall (St. Mawgan, Culdrose) using 40 years
of data (1957–96). In general, there is a trend over this period toward maritime airflows (S, SW, W, NW) producing higher
daily rainfall totals, with the continental groups (N, NE, E, SE) yielding lower totals relative to their frequency of occurrence.
The trend toward maritime airflows producing higher rainfall totals is in line with recent trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO). Notable seasonal variations in WD/R relationships over Cornwall are interpreted in terms of the location’s exposure
to the prevailing wind, sea temperature variations and the orography of the South West Peninsula.
Received October 23, 2000/Revised February 2, 2001 相似文献
3.
The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece. 相似文献
4.
Laurent Pfister Gilles Drogue Abdelkhalak El Idrissi Jean-François Iffly Christelle Poirier Lucien Hoffmann 《Climatic change》2004,66(1-2):67-87
The spatial variability of observed trends in rainfall structure over the last 5 decades and its effects on the spatial variability of maximum daily water levels in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg (Europe) were investigated in 9 sub-basins of the Mosel river. Over the past 25 years, an increase in westerly atmospheric circulation types during winter months has caused an increase in winter rainfall totals, duration and intensity. More specifically, the spatial variability of trends having affected winter rainfall totals, duration and intensity have led to spatially varying positive trends in maximum daily water levels. Observed trends in rainfall characteristics and maximum daily water levels during winter show closely linked spatial patterns that are strongly related to the topography of the study area. 相似文献
5.
Cem Iyigun Murat Türkeş İnci Batmaz Ceylan Yozgatligil Vilda Purutçuoğlu Elçin Kartal Koç Muhammed Z. Öztürk 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):95-106
In this study, the hierarchical clustering technique, called Ward method, was applied for grouping common features of air temperature series, precipitation total and relative humidity series of 244 stations in Turkey. Results of clustering exhibited the impact of physical geographical features of Turkey, such as topography, orography, land–sea distribution and the high Anatolian peninsula on the geographical variability. Based on the monthly series of nine climatological observations recorded for the period of 1970–2010, 12 and 14 clusters of climate zones are determined. However, from the comparative analyses, it is decided that 14 clusters represent the climate of Turkey more realistically. These clusters are named as (1) Dry Summer Subtropical Semihumid Coastal Aegean Region; (2) Dry-Subhumid Mid-Western Anatolia Region; (3 and 4) Dry Summer Subtropical Humid Coastal Mediterranean region [(3) West coast Mediterranean and (4) Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions]; (5) Semihumid Eastern Marmara Transition Sub-region; (6) Dry Summer Subtropical Semihumid/Semiarid Continental Mediterranean region; (7) Semihumid Cold Continental Eastern Anatolia region; (8) Dry-subhumid/Semiarid Continental Central Anatolia Region; (9 and 10) Mid-latitude Humid Temperate Coastal Black Sea Region [(9) West Coast Black Sea and (10) East Coast Black Sea sub-regions]; (11) Semihumid Western Marmara Transition Sub-region; (12) Semihumid Continental Central to Eastern Anatolia Sub-region; (13) Rainy Summer Semihumid Cold Continental Northeastern Anatolia Sub-region; and (14) Semihumid Continental Mediterranean to Eastern Anatolia Transition Sub-region. We believe that this study can be considered as a reference for the other climate-related researches of Turkey, and can be useful for the detection of Turkish climate regions, which are obtained by a long-term time course dataset having many meteorological variables. 相似文献
6.
Summary The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state of eastern India, shows characteristic intraseasonal and interannual variability,
due to interaction of basic westerly flow with orography and the synoptic scale monsoon disturbances including low-pressure
systems and cyclonic circulations extending upto mid-tropospheric level (LPSC). These systems normally develop over the north
Bay of Bengal and move west-northwestwards along the monsoon trough. The essence of this study is to find out the main features
of the intraseasonal variability of daily monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to synoptic systems like LPSC and its implication
on the interannual variation of rainfall. For this purpose, the actual and mean daily rainfall data of 31 uniformly distributed
stations, six homogeneous regions and Orissa as a whole during monsoon season (June–September) over a period of 20 years (1980–1999)
are subjected to auto-correlation and power spectrum analyses. The actual and average daily scores of significant EOFs and
actual daily occurrence along with daily probability of occurrence of the LPSC influencing rainfall over Orissa during the
same period are also subjected to auto-correlation and power spectrum analyses.
The intraseasonal variation of monsoon rainfall over Orissa and different homogeneous regions is dominated by the synoptic
mode (3–9 days) of variation due to the similar mode of variation in the occurrence of LPSC influencing the rainfall. The
seasonal rainfall and hence the interannual variation depends on the intraseasonal variation of rainfall modulated with the
synoptic mode of variation in the occurrence of the LPSC. The occurrence of LPSC over the northwest (NW) Bay/NW and adjoining
northeast (NE) Bay and its subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa and east Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh in synoptic
mode (3–6 days) alongwith absence of similar mode in the occurrence of the LPSC over NE Bay, Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) in
the north and west central (WC) Bay to the south leads to excess rainfall over different homogeneous regions and Orissa as
a whole. The reverse is the case in deficient years over Orissa and all homogeneous regions except southwest Orissa. The occurrence
of the LPSC over GWB in synoptic mode (about 5 days) alongwith absence of synoptic mode in the occurrence of the LPSC over
NW Bay leads to deficient rainfall year over southwest Orissa.
Correspondence: U. C. Mohanty, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi
110016, India 相似文献
7.
利用海南岛气象观测站逐日降水整编资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF） ERA5再分析资料，分析了1991—2020年海南岛冬季暴雨的时空分布及环流特征。结果表明：海南岛冬季暴雨在月际分布（12月—次年2月）上存在较大差异性，降雨量级越大，差异越明显；在空间分布上也存在显著的地域性，东部地区发生频次最高，总体上呈现东多西少的分布特征。海南岛冬季暴雨的水汽输送主要以偏东方向为主，气流来自副高南侧的偏东气流和大陆冷高压东南侧的东北气流。海南岛冬季暴雨发生期间，相对气候平均态而言，偏东低空急流较为强劲，中南半岛南支槽形态明显，副高偏北偏西偏强，南亚高压西北向的出流偏强，且南海海域存在显著的海温正距平。 相似文献
8.
9.
夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型的环流特征及预测信号 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用中国南方66站降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解（EOF）、合成分析和相关分析等方法,对夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型进行了划分,对比分析了两类雨型同期大气环流和前期海温及环流的差异,以探讨两类雨型的形成机制及前期预测信号。结果表明:20世纪80年代之前华南型出现的频次较高,之后长江中下游型出现频次增多;长江中下游型年西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏强偏西偏南,东亚夏季风（EASM）偏弱,副热带西风急流位置偏南,乌拉尔山阻塞高压（乌阻）和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压（鄂阻）较强,欧亚中高纬以经向环流为主,冷暖空气在长江中下游辐合,导致长江中下游降水偏多;华南型年大气环流与长江中下游型年大体相反,登陆华南的台风偏多,冷暖空气在华南地区辐合,导致华南地区降水偏多;其中副高的脊线位置和中高纬阻塞强弱是长江中下游型和华南型形成的关键因素。两类雨型前期海温分析表明,长江中下游型年,前冬赤道中东太平洋和印度洋偏暖,为典型的东部型El Ni?o,副热带南印度洋偶极子（SIOD）呈负位相,春季El Ni?o衰减,SIOD负位相也减弱,但印度洋持续增暖;华南型年,前冬和春季的海洋演变与长江中下游型年大体相反;关键区域海温与长江中下游夏季降水（YRR）和华南夏季降水（SCR）的年际关系存在年代际变化,YRR和SCR与前冬Ni?o3.4指数、SIOD指数和春季热带印度洋全区一致海温模态（IOBW）指数的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱,这主要是由于这三个关键海温指数与EASM及副高脊线的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱;两类雨型前期大气环流差异分析表明,春季大气环流的差异性要比前冬显著,长江中下游型年,春季副高、南海副高、马斯克林高压（马高）、澳大利亚高压（澳高）均偏强,大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏弱,北太平洋涛动（NPO）呈正位相;华南型年春季的关键环流系统异常不明显,仅大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏强,NPO呈负位相。前期海温演变及春季大气环流关键系统的异常可以作为两类雨型年的一些预测信号。 相似文献
10.
利用湖南97个气象观测站逐日综合气象干旱指数、逐日降水量和湖南天气气候分区,研究湖南极端干旱特征和极端干旱时段内人工影响天气增雨潜力,结果表明:①湖南极端干旱期有相当的增雨潜力,各个分区的极端干旱频次和大气可降水量年代际变化除70年代外均呈现为北少南多的特点。②极端干旱时段内各分区年均可增雨日数主要表现为月际差异,可增雨日数主要集中在8—10月,各分区区域差异较小,各分区在伏旱期的可增雨日数大约占伏旱期的16%～20%。③湖南极端干旱按照出现的季节分类有11种,频次最高的是夏秋连旱,同时夏秋连旱的可增雨日数最多。 相似文献
11.
通过对康定市历史泥石流灾害资料与历史气象降雨资料进行统计分析,揭示了康定市泥石流灾害与降雨的关系特征,并在此基础上,研制了康定市1h、3h降雨量诱发泥石流预警指标。结果表明:康定市境内各地均有发生泥石流灾害的可能性,东部地区是泥石流的高易发区。康定市境内泥石流灾害发生与当日降雨量、短时强降雨、前期有效降雨量关系密切。降雨量大且降雨强度强的月份（6~8月）易发生泥石流灾害。短时强降水的强度越大,发生灾害的风险越大,强降水出现频率最高的时段（19:00~02:00）也是泥石流高发时段。当降水强度<10mm/h和20mm/3h时,有出现泥石流的可能性,泥石流灾害气象风险等级为4~5级;当降水强度达到10~20mm/h、21~35mm/3h时,发生泥石流的可能性较大,风险等级为3级;当降水强度达到21~35mm/h、36~50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性大,风险等级为2级;当降水强度>35mm/h、50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性极大,风险等级为1级。 相似文献
12.
利用1961—2010年中国东北122站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国国家气候中心整理的160站月平均温度资料,对东北6月、7月、8月的降水进行分型,在此基础上分析各类降水型对应的环流形势。结果表明:东北6月、7月、8月降水均可划分为两大类四小类,6月与8月的分型结果相同,为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和南北反位相型(南部型、北部型),7月可分为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和东西反位相型(东部型、西部型)。6月东北降水主要受东北冷涡影响,冷涡越强,降水越多,且当鄂霍次克海阻塞高压出现明显异常时,6月东北降水将呈现南北反位相特征;7月、8月降水主要受东亚夏季风影响,其中东北降水全区一致型与西太平洋副热带高压的位置以及沿亚洲西风急流东传的波列有关,而降水南北(东西)反位相型则与西太平洋副热带高压的强度有关。 相似文献
13.
Chibuike Chiedozie IBEBUCHI 《大气科学进展》2023,40(1):110-128
The positive phase of the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole(SIOD) is one of the climatic modes in the subtropical southern Indian Ocean that influences the austral summer inter-annual rainfall variability in parts of southern Africa. This paper examines austral summer rain-bearing circulation types(CTs) in Africa south of the equator that are related to the positive SIOD and the dynamics through which specific rainfall regions in southern Africa can be influenced by this relationship. Four austral... 相似文献
14.
为探国家气象信息中心多源融合格点降水实况产品在中小河流面雨量计算中的可行性,该文以湖南省资水流域柘桃区间为例,利用泰森多边形法、算术平均值法、克里金插值法以及国家气象信息中心多源融合格点降水实况产品,以2020年9月为代表,对4种方法计算的面雨量结果进行了比较分析。结果表明：（1）4种方法的计算结果相关性显著,均能较好反应出不同强度降水及不同子流域之间的差异。大多数情况下算术平均值法的结果偏大,多源融合格点实况法的结果偏小,插值法和泰森多边形法的结果介于二者之间。（2）当地面雨量站分布密集或降水空间分布均匀时,4种方法计算结果的标准差较小;当地面雨量站分布稀疏或降水空间分布不均时,4种方法的结果标准差较大,此时采用多源融合格点实况法比算术平均值法、泰森多边形法更合理可靠。（3）对于地形地貌复杂多变的山区,尤其是暴雨以上强降水天气,降水空间分布十分不均,多源融合格点实况产品对降水实际分布的反演可信度仍有待研究,计算面雨量时需要结合多种方法综合判断。实际计算中小河流域面雨量时,针对不同的子流域、不同的天气过程,应当根据天气系统及降水空间分布综合分析,合理利用多种方法才能准确把握面雨量的大小和可能的误差。 相似文献
15.
G. A. Efstathiou C. J. Lolis N. M. Zoumakis P. Kassomenos D. Melas 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(1-2):259-279
Raingauge data from four meteorological stations in Chalkidiki peninsula (Greece) were used to identify the characteristics of the synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold-season heavy rainfall events and corresponding flooding over the area. Precipitation climatology over the complex topography of Chalkidiki is characterized by limited annual rainfall, but in the occurrence of heavy rainfall episodes daily accumulations are exceptionally high with increased precipitation rates, leading often to severe flooding. Fifty-five cases of high daily accumulations for the period of 1997 to 2010, mostly observed during December and October, were classified into eight clusters by applying S-Mode Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis to the ERA-Interim grid point reanalysis data. The results revealed that, in most cases, intense rainfall and flooding is produced by synoptic scale disturbances that generate and sustain cyclonic activity over south Italy, the Ionian, and less frequently over the Aegean Sea. In particular, the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with heavy rainfall are characterized by the presence of a southeasterly–easterly low-level humid flow over Chalkidiki in conjunction with the potentially unstable lower troposphere influenced by mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and enhanced low-level convergence over the complex terrain. 相似文献
16.
运用2001年和2002年7个热带气旋 (TC) 登陆华南前后的38个日降水量、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及卫星云图, 经普查和分析将TC造成的降水区划分为纬向型、经向型、NE—SW向型3种; 对各型高、中、低层中的主要气象因子作了详细分析, 如高层流场、中层副热带高压、低层急流和切变线或辐合线、整层水汽通量散度以及季风云涌等, 在此基础上归纳概括出了这些降水型各自前24 h的大尺度环境场特征概略模型图, 并对其强降水形成机理尽可能地给出了解释, 为TC登陆前后的超短期降水预报提供某种参考方法。 相似文献
17.
Large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with 133 moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation events recorded at Mehrabad station in Tehran, Iran, during the period 1951–2013 are analysed. To this end, the performance of un-rotated, orthogonally rotated and obliquely rotated solutions of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is examined in classifying the atmospheric circulations into a few representative circulation types (CTs). The T-mode PCAs were applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height for the events in a domain from 10°E to 70°E and from 20°N to 50°N. The first six leading principal components were retained and then orthogonally and obliquely rotated using varimax and promax solutions, respectively. Statistical inter-comparison of the CTs obtained using the three solutions suggests that the obliquely rotated solution is the better choice for circulation classification in the present study. The six CTs obtained using the oblique rotation were then linked to the daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature variability at Tehran station as well as to the standardized anomalies of the daily total precipitation and mean daily temperature of a dense network of stations distributed across Iran. It is found that the CTs identified, though generally comparable in producing significant precipitation in Tehran, vary in their potential to bring cold weather and generate snowfall in Tehran specifically and in the country in general. While the first three CTs give rise to regional patterns of standardized precipitation anomalies centred in Tehran, the next three CTs leave a pronounced precipitation signature almost across the whole country. As regards the standardized temperature anomalies, with the exception of one CT that causes deep and widespread negative standardized anomalies over most parts of the country, the other CTs are characterized with a dipolar structure of a deep intrusion of cold weather to the west and prevailing warm weather to the east of the country. 相似文献
18.
Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong. 相似文献
19.
贺兰山东麓极端暴雨的中尺度特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用近10年宁夏逐时自动气象站降水、银川CD雷达、FY-2、探空和ECMWF再分析0.125°×0.125°等高分辨率多源气象资料,在中尺度系统分型基础上,对比分析贺兰山东麓6次极端暴雨的中尺度特征。结果表明:(1)低空偏(东)南急流夜间增强并配合贺兰山地形,在东坡山前触发或增强了暴雨中小尺度系统,造成地形处降水增幅,极端暴雨都是伴有短时强降水的对流性暴雨,主要集中在东坡山前,中心在山洪沟口,夜雨特征显著。(2)环境场都满足对流性暴雨的3个基本条件:700 hPa(东)南急流将暖湿水汽输向暴雨区,低层高温高湿促进了大气不稳定与动力、热力、地形抬升触发机制;深对流过程850 hPa无明显急流,水汽主要来自孟加拉湾,水汽输送受限,但大气稳定度更低,更有利于对流性暴雨发生,混合对流过程850 hPa与700 hPa急流路径重合,水汽来自孟加拉湾、南海、黄海和渤海,水汽输送更充沛,更有利于持续性暴雨产生。(3)极端暴雨主要有暖区对流降水、锋面对流降水、锋区层状云降水3种性质;暖区对流主要在山区,地形抬升是触发机制,锋面对流的触发是低层暖湿气流沿着冷垫抬(爬)升,平原和山区皆有;对流系统的移动与低层风场一致,山区和平原分别沿山体和低空急流轴传播,通常移动与传播方向平行,山区低层为偏东风时,移动与传播近似垂直,列车效应明显。(4)线型对流系统过程冷空气弱,以暖区或(和)锋面对流性降水为主,对流系统在山前沿山体传播形成组织化程度高的带状线型回波,移动与传播有平行有垂直,受地形抬升作用,对流系统在山前稳定少动、发展强盛,降水历时短、范围小、雨强大、有间歇性,3~4 h的累计雨量占过程总量的85%左右,区域平均雨量远小于暴雨量级,地形性强对流暴雨特征凸显。(5)非线型对流系统过程冷空气强,以锋面对流性降水和锋区层状云降水为主,对流系统在山前和平原沿山体和急流轴传播和移动形成非线型回波,平原地区传播与移动平行,山区两者垂直,对流系统组织化程度不高、移速快、强度弱,降水历时长、范围大、雨强小,连续降水累计雨量大,区域平均雨量接近或达到暴雨量级,混合性降水特征明显。(6)降水强度R与CAPE增幅、回波强度Z、强回波持续时间、回波顶高、液态水含量呈正相关,与TBB呈负相关,相关性在深对流过程更清晰;Z≥40 dBZ时,Z-R满足关系式:R=3.67×10-8Z5.222+4.835。 相似文献
20.
Daily precipitation totals at 55 sites were used to investigate geographic variability in winter (DJF) rainfall over Cumbria, NW England, over an 11-year period. Winter is the wettest season (>800?mm in the mountainous Lake District), with rainfall mechanisms closely linked to North Atlantic forcing. The Lamb weather type catalogue was used to identify rainfall distributions under different wind directions. Precipitation magnitude over Cumbria is much more sensitive to a change in wind direction than the geographic pattern in rainfall, with southwesterly (easterly) winds producing the highest (lowest) spatially averaged daily rainfall totals of 8.2?mm (0.6?mm). S-mode principal components analysis was used to identify the main patterns of precipitation variability. Three principal components (PCs) were retained as being statistically significant (cumulative explained variance for unrotated PCs?=?84.3%), with a correlated PC structure (direct oblimin rotation) best describing the spatial variance in rainfall. PC 1 has a very high index of strength (variance measure?=?40.9), indicating that there is one dominant rainfall pattern. PC 1 shows a gradient between wetter conditions in southwest Cumbria and over the central Lake District and drier conditions in NE Cumbria, and is usually caused by active zonal west to southwest flows. Almost of equal importance to PC 1 is PC 3 (variance measure?=?39.3), which has a more uniform rainfall distribution than PC 1 and is usually caused by fronts stalling over the region. PC 2, which shows an east to west decline in rainfall totals, is much less important than PCs 1 and 3 (variance measure?=?18.6). PC 2??s rainfall pattern can be caused by easterly flows with high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure over the Continent, or by strong southwesterly flows, with depressions often centred over Scotland. Finally, cluster analysis was carried out to identify precipitation regions for all days and for each wind direction. Clusters were found to be largely stable to changes in wind direction, with stations in the central Lake District often clustered together, thus highlighting the importance of orographic enhancement of rainfall in this region. 相似文献