共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
通过对逐步逼近法１９９５年试验情况与国内外预报台的综合预报以及与国内一些客观预报方法的比较分析，总结出该方法对移动路径明显转折的热带气旋有较好的预报能力，４８小时平均误差达到３００ｋｍ以内，特别是当热带气旋的移速发生明显变化时，该方法较之其它客观方法有明显的优越性。 相似文献
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2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径主客观预报评价 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
利用目前中央气象台热带气旋路径实时业务预报中使用的各种主客观预报产品资料，对2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径实时业务预报中的主客观预报进行对比分析检验。结果显示：虽然在整体上主观预报要优于客观模式的结果，但客观模式的预报能力已接近主观预报，有时甚至还好于主观预报，特别是48小时以上时效的客观模式较主观预报具有一定的优势；而在客观模式中，全球模式优于台风模式；热带气旋路径数值模式产品的使用对提高热带气旋路径业务预报水平具有十分重要的作用。 相似文献
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运用GMS-5气象卫星的OLR资料，研究了2001～2002年6月10日～8月10日西北太平洋上15个热带气旋的移动方向。选取多个OLR特征值因子及热带气旋中心最低海平面气压，结合《热带气旋年鉴》资料，采用统计回归的方法，得到热带气旋未来6、12、24小时移向的客观预报算式，其结果与年鉴中移向之间的复相关系数分别达到0．954、0．945、0．914。用预留的2001年6号台风作检验，结果很好。该方法可在日常的业务预报中试用，有助于提高热带气旋移向的预报水平，尤其是对移向突变的热带气旋具有较强的预报能力。 相似文献
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用统计动力方法作盛夏南海中北部热带气旋强度预报 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对1960～2002年盛夏（7～9月）在南海中北部海域活动的热带气旋，引入欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报格点资料，采用移动坐标，选用有关热带气旋自身特征变量及环境场等物理量动力因子，用多元回归方法，建立热带气旋强度的动力统计预报模式，结果表明该模式较单纯靠天气学经验的预报能力有明显提高。 相似文献
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热带气旋大风圈的预报 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
导出了热带气旋范围内中心气压与风场，环境气压扬之间的关系式，该关系式与热带气旋中心强度预报方法结合，用数值解的方法可以预报热带气旋中各级风圈半径。也可以结合热带气旋中心的路径预报，作沿海局地各时次的风力预报，业务试用表明，本方法具有较好的使用价值。 相似文献
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Nowadays, ensemble forecasting is popular in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, an ensemble may not produce a perfect Gaussian probability distribution owing to limited members and the fact that some members significantly deviate from the true atmospheric state. Therefore, event samples with small probabilities may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast. In this study, the evolution of tropical storms (weak typhoon) was investigated and an observed tropical storm track was used to limit the probability distribution of samples. The ensemble forecast method used pure observation data instead of assimilated data. In addition, the prediction results for three tropical storm systems, Merbok, Mawar, and Guchol, showed that track and intensity errors could be reduced through sample optimization. In the research, the vertical structures of these tropical storms were compared, and the existence of different thermal structures was discovered. One possible reason for structural differences is sample optimization, and it may affect storm intensity and track. 相似文献
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A tropical cyclone is a kind of violent weather system that takes place in warmer tropical oceans
and spins rapidly around its center and at the same time moves along surrounding flows. It is generally
recognized that the large-scale circulation plays a major role in determining the movement of tropical
cyclones and the effects of steering flows are the highest priority in the forecasting of tropical cyclone
motion and track. This article adopts a new method to derive the steering flow and select a typical
swerving track case (typhoon Dan, coded 9914) to illustrate the validity of the method. The general
approach is to modify the vorticity, geostropical vorticity and divergence, investigate the change in the
non-divergent stream function, geoptential and velocity potential, respectively, and compute a modified
velocity field to determine the steering flow. Unlike other methods in regular use such as weighted average
of wind fields or geopoential height, this method has the least adverse effects on the environmental field
and could derive a proper steering flow which fits well with storm motion. Combined with other internal
and external forcings, this method could have wide application in the prediction of tropical cyclone track. 相似文献
13.
给出了一个嵌套于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球谱模式中的套网格模式，用于预报热带气旋路径趋势，提出了一种以欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的时距为24小时的预报场为基础的“接力预报”方法；设计了五种不同的“接力预报”方案；并对8507号和8509号两个热带气旋就各种不同预报方案进行了数值预报试验。结果表明，本模式对热带气旋路径趋势具有较强的预报能力，对疑难路径也具有一定的预报能力，为开展热带气旋的路径趋势预报提供了一个新的途径。文中还对影响热带气旋路径趋势的一些主要因子结合各预报结果进行了分析，为模式尽早投入业务提供了一定的依据。 相似文献
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A review of progress over the past 50 years in observing and forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progress has been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with the improvement in numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecasting, and this has contributed to a number of warning centers now issuing five-day track forecasts that are as accurate as three-day forecasts of a decade ago. Techniques are now available to specify the track forecast uncertainty for assessing the risk of a tropical cyclone. With the advent of five-day forecasts, a focus on improved understanding of formation has led to two field experiments. A recent advance has been in extended-range (5–30 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone events (formations and tracks) in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions. This advance is a contribution to a goal of seamless forecasting from one day to a season for tropical cyclones. Little progress has been made in intensity forecasting, although the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project in the United States and recent field experiments may offer some future advances. Some advances in forecasting tropical cyclone impacts such as storm surge, surface waves, and precipitation have been achieved. Future opportunities for continued advances are possible such that improved warnings can lead to reductions in losses of lives and minimizing damages from tropical cyclones. 相似文献
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利用Threat Score方法，对1991年6月12—15日，6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明，对于大雨和暴雨预报，目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。 相似文献
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使用世界气象组织季节内至季节尺度（Subseasonal to Seasonal, S2S）预测项目数据库评估了多个集合预报系统在S2S时间尺度对台风的预报能力。评估的时间段为1999—2010年期间每年5月1日—10月31日。为评估S2S时间尺度台风的预报技巧,使用了台风密集度来描述台风的生成及移动状况。台风密集度定义为一段时间内500 km范围内台风出现的概率。台风密集度由6个S2S集合预报系统后报结果计算得出,它们分别由BoM、CMA、ECMWF、JMA、CNRM和NCEP开发使用。这6个预报系统台风密集度的预报技巧评分表明,当预报时效为11~30天时,ECMWF预报系统的评分为正值,比基于气候状态的参考预报能略好地预报台风。 相似文献
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2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2009年9—11月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之;ECMWF模式对0917号热带风暴芭玛(Parma)的预报较为成功,T639模式稳定性较差,而日本模式对"芭玛"的预报无论是路径还是强度都存在较大偏差。 相似文献
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钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1999,5(1):67-75
Statistical study is first performed of the efficiency of the technique of statistical interpretation using the products of NWP. The result shows that the application of the technique has improved the predictabilily of predictors in objective forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, increased the forecasting skill of models and extended the valid period of forecast. Then a discussion is made of some technical problems in the application in the motion forecasting, suggesting: a large sample of data and perfect forecast method be employed in constructing objective forecast models for tropical cyclone motion, predictors be included that are so finely built that they reflect all synoptic features and physical quantity fields and NWP products be used and corrected that are available at multiple times. It is one of the effective ways to improve the skill and stability of the forecast by composite use of outcomes from various forecasting models. 相似文献