共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
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王绍武 《气候变化研究进展》2012,(4):312
2012年6月1日,《科学》(Science)杂志在"新闻焦点"栏目中发表了8篇评论,总标题为"天文学的秘密"。由资深编辑A.Cho,Y.Bhattacharjee,E.Cartlidge,D.Clery,及R.A.Kerr编写,题目分别是:(1)什么是暗能量?(2)暗物质有多热?(3)丢失的重子到何处去了?(4)恒星如何爆炸?(5)为什么宇宙重新电离?(6)最高能量的宇宙 相似文献
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三门峡库尾的泥沙淤积及其解决途径的建议 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
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日食影响旱涝的机制与检验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
日食增加大气的有效位能.日食区形成高压.气流下沉.非日食区形成低压,气流上升.形成附加的降水,降水使气压再降低,副高向此低压中心靠近;反之副高受高压的推斥,从而改变副高的正常位置.影响我国夏季的旱涝. 相似文献
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试论短期气候预测的不确定性 总被引：25，自引：7，他引：18
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1 运用现有的MICAPS接口程序完成报文上传在MICAPS系统中有6个文件,Mtimer.exe、transdat.exe、ws.dat、datatime.tab、netrc和transdatl.bat,其中Mtimer.ext定时控制程序、transdat.exe为数据传输程序,ws.dat为定时时间表文件、datatime.tab为数据传输时间表文件、netrc为服务器信息文件、transdatl.bat为数据传输批处理程序,将此6个文件拷入上传报计算机硬盘的同一目录下(目录名自定)并进行编辑datatime.tab和ws.dat文件。1.1 数据时间表文件datatime.tab文件格式第一行:传输次数(整数) 系统管理员信息(字符串) 网络管理员信息(… 相似文献
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余龙永 《高原山地气象研究》2004,24(1)
雾是影响航空器正常进出港的关键天气因素之一.对航空器进出港的影响主要通过对能见度大小的作用表现出来.在山区,雾是影响航空器正常起降的最主要的天气因素. 相似文献
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主要讨论了 Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) 模型和广义的CRR模型,并研究了如何基于CRR模型和广义的CRR模型利用Monte Carlo模拟计算资产价格以及期权价值. 相似文献
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主要研究线性随机微分方程模型,为此定义Itô随机微积分,建立Itô公式.鉴于研究的重点是利用R软件进行数值模拟,所以详细讨论了过去10多年来随机微分方程数值解的研究. 相似文献
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主要研究了随机对数线性(SLL)模型以及如何基于SLL模型计算欧式期权平均收益.此外,还演绎了资产价格的Monte Carlo模拟. 相似文献
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Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall’s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. 相似文献
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Richard b. Howarth 《Climatic change》2003,56(3):257-263
Monte Carlo simulations by Tol (2003) suggest that there is a small but positive probability that climate change will impose catastrophic impacts on future society unless sufficient steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper critically evaluates this finding and its implications for policy analysis and decision-making. 相似文献
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Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), the El Ni o(EN) and La Ni a(LN) events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN(LN) events the positive(negative) SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive(negative) PDO phases than in negative(positive) phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more(58% less) frequent than LN in positive(negative)PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data. 相似文献
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预报检验重点关注预报与观测间的综合统计特征用以探讨模式预报性能,而统计显著性检验方法是衡量评估结论的重要指标,是判断预报效果改进与否的有效手段.当前诸多重要检验指标如降水技巧评分等由于不满足正态分布特征均难以采用简单的计算方式获得置信区间以衡量检验指标的误差特征,因此难以正确判断通过统计检验所获得的评估差异是真实反映模式预报效果差异或是由检验样本的不确定性所造成.蒙特卡罗方法可通过样本重构获取正态分布的统计样本从而有效地解决这一问题.采用2015年8月的T639模式及GRAPES全球预报模式24 h降水预报产品,使用中国区域2400站日降水资料作为实况,重点研究蒙特卡罗方法在统计显著性检验中的应用特征,分析不同蒙特卡罗重构次数对检验结果的收敛性.结果表明10 000次蒙特卡罗重构后统计指标可满足正态分布,而通过显著性检验分析后可明显区分预报系统间降水评分差异的统计特征. 相似文献
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闪电的光辐射能分布特征 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
对TRMM卫星上装载的闪电成像仪(LIS)所获取的闪电光辐射能进行了分析,发现在不同地区和不同的空间、时间尺度上闪电光辐射能都很好地遵循对数正态分布。文中利用了一个国际上公认的一维雷暴云起电和放电模式,对闪电放电中和的电荷量进行了数值模拟。蒙特卡罗算法表明,闪电放电所中和的电荷量也遵循对数正态分布,云中的软雹浓度、破碎系数、温度递减率、放电的电场阈值等参量的综合作用可以对其进行较好的解释,而其中任意一种参量的单独作用则不然。 相似文献
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PageRank是衡量网络节点重要性的指标之一,个性化PageRank是普通PageRank的推广形式.目前关于(个性化)PageRank的研究主要集中在无权网络,而关于带权网络的研究结果较少.有鉴于此,基于矩阵变换和蒙特卡罗方法,分别给出了在静态和动态带权网络中个性化PageRank计算方法,并从理论上分析了算法的性能.实验结果显示,两种算法都优于传统的幂迭代算法. 相似文献
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Application of regularised optimal fingerprinting to attribution. Part I: method, properties and idealised analysis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Optimal fingerprinting has been the most widely used method for climate change detection and attribution over the last decade. The implementation of optimal fingerprinting often involves projecting onto k leading empirical orthogonal functions in order to decrease the dimension of the data and improve the estimate of internal climate variability. However, results may be sensitive to k, and the choice of k remains at least partly arbitrary. One alternative, known as regularised optimal fingerprinting (ROF), has been recently proposed for detection. This is an extension of the optimal fingerprinting detection method, which avoids the projection step. Here, we first extend ROF to the attribution problem. This is done using both ordinary and total least square approaches. Internal variability is estimated from long control simulations. The residual consistency test is also adapted to this new method. We then show, via Monte Carlo simulations, that ROF is more accurate than the standard method, in a mean squared error sense. This result holds for both ordinary and total least square statistical models, whatever the chosen truncation k. Finally, ROF is applied to global near-surface temperatures in a perfect model framework. Improvements provided by this new method are illustrated by a detailed comparison with the results from the standard method. Our results support the conclusion that ROF provides a much more objective and somewhat more accurate implementation of optimal fingerprinting in detection and attribution studies. 相似文献