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人类活动对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化影响检测和21世纪预测 总被引：42，自引：2，他引：40
使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组(WG1)2001年科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR),对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化作检测表明,从观测计算得到的近百年中国西北地区气候变暖0.75℃和近50年气候变暖0.88℃,很可能与人类活动造成大气中温室气体浓度增加以及硫化物气溶胶增加有联系.所有模式的控制试验没有表现出明显的增暖趋势,但是,根据20世纪的排放,所有模式模拟出温室气体增加或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶增加,造成西北地区变暖平均为0.34～1.57℃/100 a和0.90～1.86℃/50 a.所有模式对21世纪中国西北地区气候变化的计算表明,21世纪由于人类活动排放温室气体增加,以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,西北地区气温将可能平均升高2.79～4.50℃/100a.对21世纪未来降水变化的分析表明,由于温室气体增加,以及由于温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,未来西北地区降水将可能增加48～60 mm/100a.由于全球气候模式在模拟区域尺度气候变化上存在较大的不确定性,以及人类活动排放的多样性,因此,对未来的预测展望存在不确定性. 相似文献
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1.引言假设太阳能的供给常年不变,全球气候变化就是由大气的重要成份(CO_2,水汽和臭氧)与大气的其它成份的比例的改变引起的.另外,自然界诸如火山等事件以及人类活动也会把尘埃和气溶胶(气雾)排入大气,这对气候也会产生重大影响.相对而言,排入大气的CO_2影响并非很大,而火山爆发所喷放的尘埃对气候产生的短时间影响则要严重得多.再则,矿物燃料和木材的燃烧对大气混浊度和雾的形成有很大影响,因此也就严重影响到了大气质量.大气混浊及雾的形成,使得地球反射率增高,大量太阳能量被反射回去,造成高层大气的平衡温度下降.一般说来,这类影响还不像“矿物燃料燃烧引起大气CO_2增加,从而由于温湿效应造成环境温度上升”这种大家所熟悉的论点为人们所了解. 相似文献
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ＳＯ２构成的去凝结核会增加行星反照率，因此可使行星变冷。这种效应可抵消由温室气体增加造成的全球增暖。在二维模式中详细论述了矿物燃料燃烧与影响云反照率的ＳＯ２的关系以便计算气候效应。尽管我们在硫酸盐气溶胶和大气源汇方面的知识存在很大缺陷，还是有可能得出一般性结论。按保守算法，结果表明由于ＳＯ２排放导致的变冷作用目前能抵消ＣＯ２增温效应的５０％，模式预测出自１９８０年以来有一个强大的增温趋势，仅１９８ 相似文献
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随着对气候变暖问题认识的逐步深入,人们开始意识到,要为减缓气候变暖而奋斗。但是,这显然不是少数科学家,乃至个别政府机构能够做到的。因为大气中温室气体浓度增加带来的温室效应加剧所造成的气候影响是全球性的,而且温室气体也不是个别国家排放的。因此,气候变化及其应对本身的性质就注定了这是一个全球性的问题。1988 相似文献
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姜子英 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(5):376-380
为应对全球气候变化的挑战,发展低碳经济已成为国际共识。根据核能的特点,分析了核电燃料链的温室气体排放及其与其他能源链的比较,指出核能是各种能源中温室气体排放量最小的发电方式。介绍了世界主要核电国家发展核能减排温室气体状况,分析了我国发展核电的温室气体减排效益,提出积极发展核能是我国构建低碳型能源结构、应对气候变化的合理有效选择。 相似文献
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本文首先对中国PM2.5和近地面臭氧浓度的观测进行了简要的综述;并利用2010-2013年全球对流层臭氧的卫星观测数据给出了对流层臭氧浓度在全球和中国地区的分布特征,其平均值分别为29.78 DU和33.97 DU。然后,利用一个气溶胶大气化学-全球气候双向耦合模式模拟了中国地区PM2.5的浓度分布和季节变化,其年平均值为0.51×10-8 kg/m3。在此基础上又分析了5种典型气溶胶对PM2.5总浓度在不同季节的贡献。结合IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）,讨论了气溶胶和温室气体及其前体物的排放与辐射强迫的联系,以及减排大气臭氧前体物和气溶胶颗粒物质（PM）对气候变化的可能影响。指出减排臭氧前体物对气候的影响还不完全清楚,对短寿命的温室气体和黑碳气溶胶的减排是一种短期（未来50年）的辅助措施;为了保证全球平均温度增长不超过2℃,减少二氧化碳的排放仍是我们需要坚持的长期战略。短期和长期的减排战略对于保护环境和减缓气候变化都是至关重要的。 相似文献
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空气污染、天气和气候与大众生活息息相关,全球变化与可持续发展更是全人类面临的共同挑战。空气污染与气候变化对发展中国家带来的挑战更为显著。中国作为人口最多、发展飞速的国家,面临这两方面的挑战尤为严峻。因此,深入了解空气污染与气候变化的成因和发展机制,摸清两者相互关系对提高人们的生活质量和科学发展方针政策的制定具有指导意义。随着全球变化研究的深入,气溶胶与温室气体作为影响地球气候的两个最重要的人类排放物,在气候变化科学中起着至关重要的作用,气溶胶研究也成为地球科学发展最快的一个分支学科。中国天气、气候的变化特征,如高温增多、寒潮变少、风速减小、大气变稳、小雨减少、大雨增多、雷暴增强、季风减弱等,与空气污染都存在不同程度的联系。本文主要综述气溶胶对我国天气、气候的影响以及与气象因素相关的空气污染问题,侧重于气溶胶与极端天气事件之间包括影响程度和影响机理在内的错综复杂的关系。研究方法涉及星、地、空综合观测资料分析和模式模拟等。观测资料包括长时间历史观测资料、短时段强化观测实验资料、全球卫星资料等。 相似文献
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1气候变暖背景下嫩江气候变化特征据国家气候中心研究结果显示,近一百多年来,全球平均气温经历了冷-暖-冷-暖两次波动,总体为上升趋势。全球变暖的主要原因是人类在近一个世纪以来大量使用矿物燃料,排放大量的温室气体。随 相似文献
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近百年来全球气候变化的总趋势是地面气温逐渐变暖*[1],虽然40—60年代有一些小的波动。一般认为当代气侯变暖的主要原因是大气中CO_2及其它温室气体的增加。而CO_2的增加,又主要是由于人类进入工业化社会后煤、石油等矿物燃料的燃烧所造成的。然而也有不同的看法,Woodwell[2]详细讨论了生物圈变化的极重要的潜在作用,他认为到上世纪末采伐森林和扩大耕地已经成为大气中CO_2的第二种来源,它在数量上和迄今由于使用地下燃料所造成的CO_2源相当,因此应该重新评价现有CO_2的循环模式。图1是Robock[3]1985年给出的包括植被在内的气侯反馈图,植被通过与大气成份、反射率、蒸散等过程的反馈而与气候相互作用。因此必须高度重视研究生物地球化学过程和物理过程及其对气候的影响,还必须研究人类活动对这些过程的干扰。本文将分四个问题对此进行简单介绍和评述。 相似文献
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Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. 相似文献
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基于气温和降水观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）大气再分析资料,系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验（CESM-DPLE）对1959—2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候以及相关主要大气环流系统的基本态特征,在年际尺度上对东亚气温有很高的预测技巧但对降水几乎没有预测能力。CESM-DPLE再现了北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）经由激发遥相关波列所引起的中高纬度大气环流、东亚夏季风和气候的异常。20世纪90年代末之后,北大西洋多年代际振荡由冷位相转为暖位相,遥相关波列位相调整,东亚受异常低压控制,东亚夏季风偏强,夏季气温偏高、降水偏多。总体上,尽管还存在着不足,但CESM-DPLE对东亚夏季温度年际变化以及与20世纪90年代末北大西洋多年代际振荡位相转变相联的东亚夏季气候年代际变化具备一定的预测能力,是目前研究和预测东亚气候变化的一套较好试验数据。 相似文献
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Contrasting Impacts of South and North Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on East Asian Summer Climate 
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下载免费PDF全文 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,(6)
Using observational data and model simulations,the author find that the North Indian Ocean(NIO)sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies can trigger an eastward atmospheric Kelvin wave propagating into the equatorial western Pacific,inducing an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical Northwest Pacific(NWP)and resulting in prominent summer climate anomalies in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific(EANWP)region.However,the response of tropospheric temperatures and atmospheric Kelvin waves to the South Indian Ocean(SIO)SST anomalies is weak;as a result,the impact of the SIO SST anomalies on the EANWP summer climate is weak.The contrasting impacts of NIO and SIO SST anomalies on the EANWP summer climate is possibly due to the different mean state of SSTs in the two regions.In summer,the climatological SSTs in the NIO are higher than in the SIO,leading to a stronger response of atmospheric convection to the NIO SST anomalies than to the SIO SST anomalies.Thus,compared with the SIO SST anomalies,the NIO SST anomalies can lead to stronger tropospheric air temperature anomalies and atmospheric Kelvin waves to affect the EANWP summer climate. 相似文献
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Using the hindcasts provided by the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project for the period of 1980–2005, the forecast capability of spring climate in China is assessed mainly from the aspects of precipitation, 2-m air temperature, and atmospheric circulations. The ENSEMBELS can reproduce the climatology and dominant empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of precipitation and 2-m air temperature, with some differences arising from different initialization months. The multi-model ensemble(MME) forecast of interannual variability is of good performance in some regions such as eastern China with February initialization.The spatial patterns of the MME interannual and inter-member spreads for precipitation and 2-m air temperature are consistent with those of the observed interannual spread, indicating that internal dynamic processes have major impacts on the interannual anomaly of spring climate in China. We have identified two coupled modes between intermember anomalies of the 850-hPa vorticity in spring and sea surface temperature(SST) both in spring and at a lead of 2 months, of which the first mode shows a significant impact on the spring climate in China, with an anomalous anticyclone located over Northwest Pacific and positive precipitation and southwesterly anomalies in eastern China.Our results also suggest that the SST at a lead of two months may be a predictor for the spring climate in eastern China. A better representation of the ocean–atmosphere interaction over the tropical Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and Indian Ocean can improve the forecast skill of the spring climate in eastern China. 相似文献
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四川盆地作为我国一个特殊的大气气溶胶污染区域,亟待厘清其大气污染时空变化与独特盆地地形影响相关机理。本文综述了近年来一系列相关研究成果,包括:（1）揭示了四川盆地大气环境变化中大地形影响作用,青藏高原东侧区域气溶胶空间分布“避风港”效应,以及大地形热力强迫对盆地空气质量变化的“气候调节”影响; （2）探明了四川盆地大气边界层结构对大气气溶胶变化的影响,冬季重霾期间大气边界层垂直结构变化特征及其相关PM2.5物理化学特性;（3）明晰了大气气溶胶在四川盆地暴雨过程中的重要作用机理,以及四川盆地气溶胶高污染分布导致的降水分布型态的气候变化。这些研究提升了四川盆地气溶胶污染形成机理及大地形对大气环境变化影响效应的科学认识,并表明未来应该深入研究四川盆地地形背景下独特大气边界层结构,人为与自然源排放和环境大气物理-化学过程变化。 相似文献
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城市气象研究进展 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
中国数十年来在城市气象研究这一新兴学科领域开展了大量研究并获得了多方面的丰硕成果。文中从城市气象观测网与观测试验、城市气象多尺度模式、城市气象与大气环境相互影响、城市化对天气气候的影响等4个方面论述了城市气象的主要研究进展:中国各大城市已建立或正在完善具有多平台、多变量、多尺度、多重链接、多功能等特点的城市气象综合观测网;北京、南京、上海等地开展了大型城市气象观测科学试验,被世界气象组织列入研究示范项目;成功开展了风洞实验、缩尺度外场实验研究;建立了多尺度城市气象和空气质量预报数值模式,并应用于业务;在城市热岛效应、城市对降水影响、城市气象与城市规划、城市化对区域气候及空气质量的影响、城市气象与大气环境相互作用等研究领域取得长足进展。最后指出,未来需要重点从新观测技术及观测资料同化应用、城市系统模式研究、城市化对天气气候的影响机理、城市化对大气环境和人体健康的影响、城市水文气象气候与环境综合服务等方面开展科学研究与应用,为中国城市化、生态文明建设、防灾减灾和应对气候变化等国家需求提供科技支撑。 相似文献
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A weakly coupled assimilation system, in which SST observations are assimilated into a coupled climate model(CASESM-C) through an ensemble optimal interpolation scheme, was established. This system is a useful tool for historical climate simulation, showing substantial advantages, including maintaining the atmospheric feedback, and keeping the oceanic fields from drifting far away from the observation, among others. During the coupled model integration, the bias of both surface and subsurface oceanic fields in the analysis can be reduced compared to unassimilated fields. Based on 30 model years of output from the system, the climatology and interannual variability of the climate system were evaluated. The results showed that the system can reasonably reproduce the climatological global precipitation and SLP, but it still suffers from the double ITCZ problem. Besides, the ENSO footprint, which is revealed by ENSO-related surface air temperature, geopotential height and precipitation during El Ni ?no evolution, is basically reproduced by the system. The system can also simulate the observed SST–rainfall relationships well on both interannual and intraseasonal timescales in the western North Pacific region, in which atmospheric feedback is crucial for climate simulation. 相似文献
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Assessing the Impacts of Eurasian Snow Conditions on Climate Predictability with a Global Climate Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 CHEN Hong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(6):336-341
On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model (Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model, hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM), the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated. The predictive skill of sea level pressures (SLP) and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model. Furthermore, the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic (prescribed) Eurasian snow conditions. The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low; however, when realistic snow conditions were employed, the predictability increased, illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions. Overall, the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China. When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model (GCM) can be more realistically represented, the predictability of summer climate over China increases. 相似文献
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High spatial resolution of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) datasets are ideal for determining the spatial patterns associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indexes, and climate change and variability studies, however such datasets are not usually available. Those datasets are particularly important for Central America because they allow the conception of climate variability and climate change studies in a region of high climatic heterogeneity and at the same time aid the decisionmaking process at the local scale (municipalities and districts). Tavg data from stations and complementary gridded datasets at 50 km resolution were used to generate a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset for Central America from 1970 to 1999. A highresolution P dataset was used along with the new Tavg dataset to study climate variability and a climate change application. Consistently with other studies, it was found that the 1970-1999 trends in P are generally non-significant, with the exception of a few small locations. In the case of Tavg, there were significant warming trends in most of Central America, and cooling trends in Honduras and northern Panama. When the sea surface temperature anomalies between the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic have different (same) sign, they are a good indicator of the sign of P (Tavg) annual anomalies. Even with non-significant trends in precipitation, the significant warming trends in Tavg in most of Central America can have severe consequences in the hydrology and water availability of the region, as the warming would bring increases in evapotranspiration, drier soils and higher aridity. 相似文献