Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds     

David McCollum  Nico Bauer  Katherine Calvin  Alban Kitous  Keywan Riahi 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):413-426

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.  相似文献   

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE     

David Klein  Gunnar Luderer  Elmar Kriegler  Jessica Strefler  Nico Bauer  Marian Leimbach  Alexander Popp  Jan Philipp Dietrich  Florian Humpenöder  Hermann Lotze-Campen  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):705-718

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.  相似文献   

High tilt susceptibility of the Scintrex CG-5 relative gravimeters     

R. Reudink  R. Klees  O. Francis  J. Kusche  R. Schlesinger  A. Shabanloui  N. Sneeuw  L. Timmen 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(6):617-622

We report on the susceptibility of the Scintrex CG-5 relative gravimeters to tilting, that is the tendency of the instrument of providing incorrect readings after being tilted (even by small angles) for a moderate period of time. Tilting of the instrument can occur when in transit between sites usually on the backseat of a car even using the specially designed transport case. Based on a series of experiments with different instruments, we demonstrate that the readings may be offset by tens of $\upmu $ Gal. In addition, it may take hours before the first reliable readings can be taken, with the actual time depending on how long the instrument had been tilted. This sensitivity to tilt in combination with the long time required for the instrument to provide reliable readings has not yet been reported in the literature and is not addressed adequately in the Scintrex CG-5 user manual. In particular, the inadequate instrument state cannot easily be detected by checking the readings during the observation or by reviewing the final data before leaving a site, precautions suggested by Scintrex Ltd. In regional surveys with car transportation over periods of tens of minutes to hours, the gravity measurements can be degraded by some 10  $\upmu $ Gal. To obtain high-quality results in line with the CG-5 specifications, the gravimeters must remain in upright position to within a few degrees during transits. This requirement may often be unrealistic during field observations, particularly when observing in hilly terrain or when walking with the instrument in a backpack.  相似文献   

A GIS toolkit for measuring and mapping space–time accessibility from a place-based perspective     

Matthias Delafontaine  Tijs Neutens  Nico Van de Weghe 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):1131-1154

This article introduces a novel geographical information system toolkit for measuring and mapping the accessibility of individuals to services. The toolkit contributes to earlier implementations by combining aspects of both place-based and person-based accessibility measures. To this end, place-based accessibility measures are derived from a person-based framework by considering space–time prisms that are centred at service facilities rather than individual anchor points. The implementation is also innovative by explicitly accounting for the opening hours of service delivery in its accessibility measurement. In addition, the toolkit is aimed to be user-friendly and to generate insightful and comprehensible results for non-technically oriented users, which is illustrated in a brief case study about library accessibility in Ghent (Belgium).  相似文献   

A system dynamics approach for urban water reuse planning: a case study from the Great Lakes region   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Fuzhan Nasiri  Troy Savage  Ranran Wang  Nico Barawid  Julie B. Zimmerman 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(3):675-691

Water reclamation and reuse practices are recently receiving growing attention due to increasing water scarcity, concerns about the effect of wastewater discharges on receiving water, and availability of high-performing and cost-effective water reuse technologies. However, incorporation of water reuse schemes into water/wastewater infrastructure systems is a complex decision making process, involving various economical, technological, and environmental criteria. System dynamics (SD) allows modeling of complex systems and provides information about the temporal and feedback behavior of the system. In this sense, a SD model of the existing water/wastewater system in Kalamazoo-Michigan, an urban area in the Great Lakes region, was created with the hypothetical incorporation of water reuse. The model simulates and optimizes the overall water system cost (including water, wastewater and water reuse components), accounting for future scenarios of population, economic growth and climate change. Results indicate significant levels of water reuse after an infrastructure build delay. The model also indicates that a decision to implement water reuse yields remarkably lower water withdrawals and lower water treatment costs even in a location with a relatively abundant water supply like Kalamazoo. This study emphasizes the fact that a true understanding of the practice of water reuse cannot be achieved without taking regional and climatic parameters into account.  相似文献   

Upslope-climbing shelf-edge clinoforms and the stepwise evolution of the northern European glaciation (lower Pleistocene Eridanos Delta system,U.K. North Sea): When sediment supply overwhelms accommodation     

Stefano Patruno  Vittorio Scisciani  William Helland-Hansen  Nico D'Intino  William Reid  Claudio Pellegrini 《Basin Research》2020,32(2):224-239

Clinoforms are basinward-dipping and accreting palaeo-bathymetric profiles that record palaeo-environmental conditions and processes; thus, clinothems represent natural palaeo-archives. Here, we document shelf-edge scale clinoform sets which prograded through the entire width of an epicontinental marine basin (ca. 400 km), eventually encroaching onto the opposite basin flank, where they started to prograde upslope and landward, in defiance of gravity (“upslope-climbing clinoforms”). The giant westward-prograding Eridanos muddy shelf-edge clinothem originated from the Baltic hinterland in the Oligocene and achieved maximum regression in the Early Pleistocene, on the UK Central Graben (CG) and Mid North Sea High (MNSH), after crossing the whole North Sea mesopelagic depocentre and causing near complete basin infill. Here we integrate well and seismic data through the MNSH and CG and examine the Eridanos final heyday and demise, identifying five clinothem complexes (A1, A2, A3, B and C) and six depositional sequence boundaries (SB1 to SB6) in the Miocene-Recent section. Tectonic and climatic events drove the recent evolution of this system. Early Pleistocene climate cooling, in particular, resulted in a stepwise increase in sediment supply. This climaxed in the earliest Calabrian, following a likely Eburonian eustatic fall (=SB3) when the Eridanos clastic wedge was restructured from a 100–300 m thick compound shelf-edge and delta system to a “hybrid” shelf-edge delta at sequence boundary SB3 (ca. 1.75 Ma). In the ca. 40 kyr that followed SB3, a progradation rate peak (>1,000 m/kyr) is associated with clinoforms starting to accrete upslope, onto the east-dipping slope between CG and MNSH. This “upslope-climbing clinoform” phase was quickly followed by the maximum regression and final retreat of the Eridanos system in the Early Calabrian (=SB4), likely as the result of climate-driven changes in the Baltic hinterland and/or delta auto-retreat. To our knowledge, this contributions represents the first documentation of “upslope-climbing clinoforms” recorded in the stratigraphic record.  相似文献   

The use of Bluetooth for analysing spatiotemporal dynamics of human movement at mass events: A case study of the Ghent Festivities     

Mathias Versichele  Tijs Neutens Matthias Delafontaine  Nico Van de Weghe 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):208-220

In this paper, proximity-based Bluetooth tracking is postulated as an efficient and effective methodology for analysing the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of visitor movements at mass events. A case study of the Ghent Festivities event (1.5 million visitors over 10 days) is described in detail and preliminary results are shown to give an indication of the added value of the methodology for stakeholders of the event. By covering 22 locations in the study area with Bluetooth scanners, we were able to extract 152,487 trajectories generated by 80,828 detected visitors. Apart from generating clear statistics such as visitor counts, the share of returning visitors, and visitor flow maps, the analyses also reveal the complex nature of this event by hinting at the existence of several mutually different visitor profiles. We conclude by arguing why Bluetooth tracking offers significant advantages for tracking mass event visitors with respect to other and more prominent technologies, and outline some of its remaining deficiencies.  相似文献   

Geological structure, recharge processes and underground drainage of a glacierised karst aquifer system, Tsanfleuron-Sanetsch, Swiss Alps   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Vivian Gremaud  Nico Goldscheider  Ludovic Savoy  Gérald Favre  Henri Masson 《Hydrogeology Journal》2009,17(8):1833-1848

The relationships between stratigraphic and tectonic setting, recharge processes and underground drainage of the glacierised karst aquifer system ‘Tsanfleuron-Sanetsch’ in the Swiss Alps have been studied by means of various methods, particularly tracer tests (19 injections). The area belongs to the Helvetic nappes and consists of Jurassic to Palaeogene sedimentary rocks. Strata are folded and form a regional anticlinorium. Cretaceous Urgonian limestone constitutes the main karst aquifer, overlain by a retreating glacier in its upper part. Polished limestone surfaces are exposed between the glacier front and the end moraine of 1855/1860 (Little Ice Age); typical alpine karrenfields can be observed further below. Results show that (1) large parts of the area are drained by the Glarey spring, which is used as a drinking water source, while marginal parts belong to the catchments of other springs; (2) groundwater flow towards the Glarey spring occurs in the main aquifer, parallel to stratification, while flow towards another spring crosses the entire stratigraphic sequence, consisting of about 800 m of marl and limestone, along deep faults that were probably enlarged by mass movements; (3) the variability of glacial meltwater production influences the shape of the tracer breakthrough curves and, consequently, flow and transport in the aquifer.  相似文献   

New algorithms for shoreline monitoring from coastal video systems     

Nico Valentini  Alessandra Saponieri  Matteo Gianluca Molfetta  Leonardo Damiani 《Earth Science Informatics》2017,10(4):495-506

Video systems have become widely used all around the world in coastal monitoring strategies, allowing both high temporal and spatial sampling frequency, with low logistic and costs efforts. The present paper deals with a new tool for coastal images processing, aimed at the automatic shoreline detection and data analysis. The tool is composed by a shoreline detection routine implemented in a web-application, addressed at images processing (i.e. shoreline extraction and geo-rectification), data analysis and sharing results about beach actual state and shore evolution in quasi-real time. The Shoreline Detection Model (SDM) is based on a new algorithm, implementing image-processing procedures, which allows extracting the sea/land boundary from automatic segmented Timex images. The SDM calibration and validation has been performed on different coastal images derived from a video monitoring system installed at Alimini (Lecce, IT) in 2005, by comparing automatic shoreline contours with the manual detected ones. Moreover, in December 2015, new video monitoring systems were installed in South Italy (Porto Cesareo and Torre Canne, Apulia region), at sandy beaches affected by erosion phenomena. The application of the SDM on images recorded by the new systems has allowed testing the model feasibility at sites characterized by different morphological features and geographical exposition. The present describes in detail the SDM algorithm and the image processing procedures used. The results of the model calibration and validation performed at Alimini and the tests performed at Porto Cesareo on first images are reported.  相似文献