Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar     

黎慧琦  刘显通  肖辉  万齐林 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):94-108

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.  相似文献   

花岗岩风化料弃土快速堆填过程中不排水抗剪强度评估     

詹良通  孙倩倩  郭晓刚  陈锐  陈云敏 《岩土力学》2021,(1):50-58

沿海沿江城市地下开挖产生的工程渣土含泥量大、含水率高且较松散,主要运往渣土场进行堆填处置。由于产量巨大而处置场地有限,许多渣土场在运营过程中存在堆填速度快、缺乏排水设施、超高超库容堆填等问题,容易引发堆填体失稳事故。目前对于非饱和工程渣土堆体在快速堆填过程中的失稳机制认识尚不清晰,尤其是对这一过程中的高饱和度工程渣土强度增长规律缺乏足够的认识。以深圳红坳渣土场填料——花岗岩风化料(CDG)填土为研究对象,对不同初始饱和度土样进行三轴不排水不排气等向压缩和剪切试验,结果表明:非饱和CDG填土不排水抗剪强度随围压增大呈非线性增长,增长速率与试样初始饱和度密切相关;当土样压缩后的饱和度超过0.7,不排水强度随围压的增长速率显著降低。基于有效固结应力法的原理,结合Hilf孔压公式和修正剑桥模型,提出了一种工程渣土不排水抗剪强度估算方法,并通过与试验结果对比验证了该方法对初始饱和度高于0.6的CDG填土的适用性。利用该方法确定的不排水强度cu与正应力σn的关系可应用于高饱和度工程渣土快速堆填中的稳定性分析。  相似文献   

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”     

于鑫  郑腾飞  万齐林  肖辉  刘显通  王婷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):293-303

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF     

肖辉  万齐林  刘显通  郑腾飞  冯璐  夏丰  陈景华 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):312-323

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.  相似文献   

华南飑线系统对流与层云区闪电起始和通道位置处的云微物理特征     

赵川鸿  郑栋  张义军  刘显通  张阳  姚雯  张文娟 《热带气象学报》2021,37(3):358-369

利用广州S波段双偏振雷达观测数据和低频电场探测阵列三维闪电定位数据,分析了2017年5月4日和5月8日华南地区两次飑线过程中闪电起始和通道位置处的雷达偏振参量和降水粒子特征.两次飑线中约80％的闪电起始和通道(统称闪电放电)定位于对流区.对流区闪电放电位置处的雷达反射率(ZH)要比层云区平均大4～5 dBZ,其它偏振参...  相似文献   

海泥环境中阴极保护的边界元计算     

王秀通  侯保荣  李焰 《海洋科学》2006,30(12):62-64

根据阴极保护的特点,建立了用于数值计算的模型;采用边界元方法对海泥介质中的阴极保护系统进行了计算,获得了海泥中钢管表面以及海泥介质内部的电位分布。将计算的结果与测量的数据进行比较,两者具有较好的一致性。  相似文献   

山地叶面积指数反演理论、方法与研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

江海英  贾坤  赵祥  魏香琴  王冰  姚云军  张晓通  江波 《遥感学报》2020,24(12):1433-1449

叶面积指数LAI（Leaf Area Index）是表征叶片疏密程度和冠层结构特征的重要植被参数,在气候变化、作物生长模型以及碳、水循环研究中发挥着重要作用。遥感是获取区域及全球尺度LAI的一个重要手段,当前LAI产品主要基于遥感数据反演得到,但是多数LAI产品算法并未考虑地形特征的影响,导致山地LAI遥感反演精度不确定性大。提高山地LAI遥感反演精度亟需考虑地形因子对冠层反射率的影响,其中山地冠层反射率模型和遥感数据地形校正是提升山地LAI遥感反演精度的关键。本文围绕山地LAI遥感反演理论与方法,综合分析了国内外山地冠层反射率模型和地形校正模型的研究进展,总结了目前山地LAI遥感反演存在的问题,并讨论了未来研究的发展趋势。  相似文献   

水生动物来源的抗肿瘤活性肽作用机制研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张永进  林琳  姜绍通  陆剑锋 《海洋科学》2015,39(8):116-124

<正>生物活性肽能调节人体多种生理功能,有提高免疫、抗肿瘤、抗病毒和降血压等作用,而且肽类物质的结构类型十分丰富,有巨大的药物活性筛选潜力,是当前国际药品与保健品界最热门的研究对象和极具发展前景的功能因子[1]。在中国,生物活性肽开发利用的研究起步较晚,易杨华等[2]从棕色扁海绵(Phakellia fusca)中获得一个具有较好抗肿瘤活性的新型类环七肽的phakellistatin(Pro-Gly-Phe-ProTrp-Leu-Thr),这也是首次从产于中国海域的  相似文献   

基于特定序列的长牡蛎视黄酸反应元件预测     

李言柯  徐晓莹  魏磊  黄宝玉  张美溦  韩怡静  刘雅琼  王晓梅  王晓通 《海洋通报》2023,(4):398-406

视黄酸受体和核受体超家族中的大部分成员对细胞整个分化、增殖过程都具有调控功能。视黄酸受体结合配体后激活,通过结合靶基因启动子区特定的核苷酸序列调控靶基因表达。视黄酸受体结合序列是由核心序列[A/G]G[T/G]TCA间隔不同碱基构成的重复序列,称为视黄酸反应元件。为了实现对长牡蛎基因组中含有的视黄酸反应元件的快速筛选预测,本研究利用Perl工具编写了一个可以批量筛选视黄酸反应元件的脚本,并对长牡蛎基因组中启动子区域序列进行筛选预测,共筛选到412个启动子区含有视黄酸反应元件的基因。随后,将这些基因在各种数据库中比对分析,预测其参与的生物学过程及可能的生物学功能。结果显示,大部分基因与蛋白质结合、核苷酸结合、水解酶活性、蛋白激酶活性等功能有关。  相似文献