Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations     

Hong Huang  Xiaoliang Ji  Fang Xia  Shuhui Huang  Xu Shang  Han Chen  Minghua Zhang  Randy A. Dahlgren  Kun Mei 《水文研究》2020,34(5):1213-1227

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.  相似文献   

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China          下载免费PDF全文

Kun‐xia Yu  Lars Gottschalk  Xiang Zhang  Peng Li  Zhanbin Li  Lihua Xiong  Qian Sun 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1844-1857

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.  相似文献   

Gas Flow Characteristics and Optimization of Gas Drainage Borehole Layout in Protective Coal Seam Mining: A Case Study from the Shaqu Coal Mine,Shanxi Province,China     

Cheng  Zhiheng  Pan  Hui  Zou  Quanle  Li  Zhenhua  Chen  Liang  Cao  Jialin  Zhang  Kun  Cui  Yongguo 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(2):1481-1493

With increasing demands for coal resources, coal has been gradually mined in deep coal seams. Due to high gas content, pressure and in situ stress, deep coal seams show great risks of coal and gas outburst. Protective coal seam mining, as a safe and effective method for gas control, has been widely used in major coal-producing countries in the world. However, at present, the relevant problems, such as gas seepage characteristics and optimization of gas drainage borehole layout in protective coal seam mining have been rarely studied. Firstly, by combining with formulas for measuring and testing permeability of coal and rock mass in different stress regimes and failure modes in the laboratory, this study investigated stress–seepage coupling laws by using built-in language Fish of numerical simulation software FLAC^3D. In addition, this research analyzed distribution characteristics of permeability in a protected coal seam in the process of protective coal seam mining. Secondly, the protected coal seam was divided into a zone with initial permeability, a zone with decreasing permeability, and permeability increasing zones 1 and 2 according to the changes of permeability. In these zones, permeability rises the most in the permeability increasing zone 2. Moreover, by taking Shaqu Coal Mine, Shanxi Province, China as an example, layout of gas drainage boreholes in the protected coal seam was optimized based on the above permeability-based zoning. Finally, numerical simulation and field application showed that gas drainage volume and concentration rise significantly after optimizing borehole layout. Therefore, when gas is drained through boreholes crossing coal seams during the protective coal seam mining in other coal mines, optimization of borehole layout in Shaqu Coal Mine has certain reference values.

  相似文献   

喀斯特地区地表温度空间降尺度方法初探     

尹枷愿  蔡宏  田鹏举  唐敏 《地理与地理信息科学》2021,37(2):38-46,99

喀斯特地区地形起伏大,常规的降尺度方法及所选择的因子对其不适用。该文根据喀斯特地区的特点,选取反射率、遥感指数及高程因子为尺度因子,通过随机森林模型建立MODIS第31、32波段辐射亮度数据和尺度因子之间的非线性关系,构建适合喀斯特地区的随机森林(Karst Random Forest,KRF)模型,成功将空间分辨率为1 km的热红外辐射亮度降至100 m,最后利用劈窗算法反演得到空间分辨率为100 m的地表温度。将KRF方法与仅考虑常规因子的多因子随机森林回归模型(MTVRF)和热锐化算法(TsHARP)对比,结果表明:1)在不同高差的喀斯特地区,KRF方法可较大程度提高地表温度降尺度精度,均方根误差(RMSE)在遵义市西北部和贵阳市以南地区分别为2.46 K和1.45 K,较MTVRF模型分别降低了0.1419 K和0.2928 K,较TsHARP算法分别降低了0.6204 K和0.6953 K,且在地形起伏度较低的喀斯特山区城市(贵阳市以南)表现更好;2)在喀斯特地区不同地类上,KRF方法效果也较好,其中植被区域最优,RMSE为1.41 K,破碎的裸土区域RMSE为1.84 K。研究显示,考虑特殊尺度因子的KRF方法可提高喀斯特地区地表温度的降尺度精度,为该地区以地表温度为基础的研究提供更精细可靠的地表温度产品。  相似文献   

城市住宅价格空间分异的区域一体化因素分析 ——以河南省开封市为例     

蔡媛媛  朱英明  艾少伟 《地域研究与开发》2021,40(2):62-67

选取2001年、2006年、2009年、2016年4个时点的城市商品住宅交易数据,基于空间分析与计量模型等方法,对开封市住宅价格时空变化特征及其与区域一体化因素的关系进行分析。结果表明:开封市城区住宅价格空间分布由单中心模式向多中心结构转变,邻近郑州的金明区正成为房价“高峰”;跨界交通和新城规划等一体化因素对开封市住宅价格的影响较为显著,且影响力随着一体化推进而变化。其中,郑开大道对住宅价格的正向促进作用呈先增后降的特点,开通相对较晚的郑开城际轻轨对住宅价格有着明显的正向作用,而开封西郊金明区的快速扩张弱化了其潜在效应。这有效地证实了区域一体化对城市住宅价格有显著影响。  相似文献   

国外城市农业的角色演变、潜在效益及其对中国的启示     

马恩朴  蔡建明  林静  廖柳文  韩燕 《世界地理研究》2021,30(1):136-147

作为新兴的农业形式,城市农业本质上是一项以食物生产为直接目的的城市生态工程,有望在促进城市可持续发展方面作出积极贡献。据此,文章首先从历史视角回顾了国外城市农业的发展历程,进而基于文献证据,论述了城市农业在环境、社会和经济三个维度上的潜在效益,并以特拉维夫市的绿色城市项目为例,对城市农业多功能效益的具体表现予以鉴析。基于此,文章进一步指出中国在发展城市农业方面尚存在诸多技术缺口,为了应对城市化时代可能面临的重大挑战和缩小城市农业发展上的国内外差距,中国应在建立技术法规与标准体系、提升规划设计与实施水平、促进城市农业装备研发应用和加强多学科技术集成方面及早开展行动。  相似文献   

欠发达农区家庭贫困的动态转变分析——以河南省为例     

蔡磊  罗庆  李孟林 《地理科学进展》2021,40(3):468-476

精准扶贫战略实施以来,以收入标准衡量的农村贫困人口大幅下降,但贫困具有多维性、动态性的特点,开展农户贫困动态变化研究对新时期农村贫困的有效治理具有重要的指导意义。论文基于2010—2018年河南农村固定观察点数据,从收入、生活条件、教育3个维度构建农户多维贫困评价指标体系,并运用马尔科夫概率转移矩阵和面板Logit模型对贫困状态类型转移及家庭陷入贫困的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：① 多维贫困比单维贫困(尤其是收入贫困)更能准确反映农区贫困状况;② 2010—2018年间,单维贫困发生率与多维贫困发生率之间差距不断扩大,这很大程度与教育贫困发生率大幅上升,而生活条件贫困、收入教育贫困和三维贫困明显下降有关;③ 单维贫困家庭更易转入教育贫困,多维贫困家庭更容易转入教育生活条件贫困;④ 农户贫困的发生是户主特征、家庭特征和村庄特征共同作用的结果,但不同类型贫困发生的影响因素有显著差异。与单维贫困发生相比,多维贫困发生受到更少因素的显著影响,并且各影响因素的作用更大。上述结论意味着新时期扶贫工作重点转向多维贫困的同时,应依据贫困类型制定具体扶贫措施,尤其重视教育等公共服务的供给。  相似文献   

Structural analysis of a shrimp thymidylate synthase reveals species-specific interactions with dUMP and raltitrexed     

Liu  Changshui  Zang  Kun  Li  Shihao  Li  Fuhua  Ma  Qingjun 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2020,38(6):1891-1899

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Thymidylate synthase (TS) is a key enzyme in the de novo biosynthesis of thymidine monophosphate, serving as a well-known drug target in chemotherapy against...  相似文献   

Microphysical Characteristics of Extreme-Rainfall Convection over the Pearl River Delta Region,South China from Polarimetric Radar Data during the Pre-summer Rainy Season     

Hao HUANG  Kun ZHAO  Johnny C.L.CHAN  Dongming HU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(5):874-886

During the pre-summer rainy season, heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China. Based on polarimetric radar observations, the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs) are examined. In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency, sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR) distributions. In the region with higher LFRs, the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezin...  相似文献   

Comparative Analysis of the Generalized Omega Equation and Generalized Vertical Motion Equation     

Baofeng JIAO  Lingkun RAN  Na LI  Ren CAI  Tao QU  Yushu ZHOU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(5):856-873

Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort. Allowing for fewer assumptions, a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium) and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively. The terms on the right-hand side of the equations, which comprise the Q vector, are composed of three factors:dynamic, thermodynamic, and mass. ...  相似文献