The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Robert Vautard  Andreas Gobiet  Daniela Jacob  Michal Belda  Augustin Colette  Michel Déqué  Jesús Fernández  Markel García-Díez  Klaus Goergen  Ivan Güttler  Tomáš Halenka  Theodore Karacostas  Eleni Katragkou  Klaus Keuler  Sven Kotlarski  Stephanie Mayer  Erik van Meijgaard  Grigory Nikulin  Mirta Patarčić  John Scinocca  Stefan Sobolowski  Martin Suklitsch  Claas Teichmann  Kirsten Warrach-Sagi  Volker Wulfmeyer  Pascal Yiou 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2555-2575

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.  相似文献   

Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russia     

Erik Haites  Farhana Yamin  Odile Blanchard  Claudia Kemfert 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):143-152

Abstract

This paper examines implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russia. It concludes that implementation without Russia is possible, although it requires political will on the part of the countries that wish to proceed with the Protocol. It would lead to higher compliance costs for Annex B buyer regions, but other regions, except Russia, would benefit financially. Russia would forego revenue of at least $20 billion for the first commitment period. Implementation without Russia could improve the environmental performance of the Protocol. It would reduce reliance on Annex B sinks, use of surplus assigned amount units (AAUs) for compliance, and the quantity of Kyoto units banked for subsequent commitment periods. Actual emissions by Kyoto Protocol Parties would fall, but the reduction may be offset by leakage to the US and Russia.  相似文献   

Biochemical biomarkers in adult female perch (Perca fluviatilis) in a chronically polluted gradient in the Stockholm recipient (Sweden)     

Hansson T  Schiedek D  Lehtonen KK  Vuorinen PJ  Liewenborg B  Noaksson E  Tjärnlund U  Hanson M  Balk L 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,53(8-9):451-468

A battery of biochemical biomarkers and the SigmaPCB concentration in adult female perch (Perca fluviatilis) verified an aquatic pollution gradient with the city of Stockholm (Sweden) as a point source of anthropogenic substances. The investigation included both an upstream gradient, 46 km westwards through Lake M?laren, and a downstream gradient, 84 km eastwards through the Stockholm archipelago. Besides the main gradient from Stockholm, there were strong indications of pollution coming from the Baltic Sea. The results indicated a severe pollution situation in central Stockholm, with poor health status of the perch, characterised by increased specific EROD activity in the liver, increased liver EROD somatic index, decreased AChE activity in the muscle, increased amount of DNA adducts in the liver, and a high concentration of biliary 1-pyrenol. In addition, laboratory exposure to common EROD inducers elicited an abnormal response, suggestive of chronic intoxication.  相似文献   

A GCSS Boundary-Layer Cloud Model Intercomparison Study Of The First Astex Lagrangian Experiment     

Christopher S. Bretherton  Steven K. Krueger  Matthew C. Wyant  Peter Bechtold  Erik Van Meijgaard  Bjorn Stevens  Joao Teixeira 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,93(3):341-380

Three single-column models (all with an explicit liquid water budget and compara-tively high vertical resolution) and three two-dimensional eddy-resolving models (including one with bin-resolved microphysics) are compared with observations from the first ASTEX Lagrangian experiment. This intercomparison was a part of the second GCSS boundary-layer cloud modelling workshop in August 1995.In the air column tracked during the first ASTEX Lagrangian experiment, a shallow subtropical drizzling stratocumulus-capped marine boundary layer deepens after two days into a cumulus capped boundary layer with patchy stratocumulus. The models are forced with time varying boundary conditions at the sea-surface and the capping inversion to simulate the changing environment of the air column.The models all predict the observed deepening and decoupling of the boundary layer quite well, with cumulus cloud evolution and thinning of the overlying stratocumulus. Thus these models all appear capable of predicting transitions between cloud and boundary-layer types with some skill. The models also produce realistic drizzle rates, but there are substantial quantitative differences in the cloud cover and liquid water path between models. The differences between the eddy-resolving model results are nearly as large as between the single column model results. The eddy resolving models give a more detailed picture of the boundary-layer evolution than the single-column models, but are still sensitive to the choice of microphysical and radiative parameterizations, sub-grid-scale turbulence models, and probably model resolution and dimensionality. One important example of the differences seen in these parameterizations is the absorption of solar radiation in a specified cloud layer, which varied by a factor of four between the model radiation parameterizations.  相似文献   

SPM response to tide and river flow in the hyper-turbid Ems River     

Johan C. Winterwerp  Julia Vroom  Zheng-B. Wang  Martin Krebs  Erik C.M. Hendriks  Dirk S. van Maren  Kerstin Schrottke  Christine Borgsmüller  Andreas Schöl 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(5):559-583

In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of fine sediments in the hyper-turbid Lower Ems River, with focus on the river’s upper reaches, a stretch of about 25 km up-estuary of Terborg. Our analysis is based on long records of suspended particulate matter (SPM) from optical backscatter (OBS) measurements close to the bed at seven stations along the river, records of salinity and water level measurements at these stations, acoustic measurements on the vertical mud structure just up-estuary of Terborg and oxygen profiles in the lower 3 m of the water column close to Leerort and Terborg. Further, we use cross-sectionally averaged velocities computed with a calibrated numerical model. Distinction is made between four timescales, i.e. the semi-diurnal tidal timescale, the spring–neap tidal timescale, a timescale around an isolated peak in river flow (i.e. about 3 weeks) and a seasonal timescale. The data suggest that a pool of fluid/soft mud is present in these upper reaches, from up-estuary of Papenburg to a bit down-estuary of Terborg. Between Terborg and Gandersum, SPM values drop rapidly but remain high at a few gram per litre. The pool of fluid/soft mud is entrained/mobilized at the onset of flood, yielding SPM values of many tens gram per litre. This suspension is transported up-estuary with the flood. Around high water slack, part of the suspension settles, being remixed during ebb, while migrating down-estuary, but likely not much further than Terborg. Around low water slack, a large fraction of the sediment settles, reforming the pool of fluid mud. The rapid entrainment from the fluid mud layer after low water slack is only possible when the peak flood velocity exceeds a critical value of around 1 m/s, i.e. when the stratified water column seems to become internally supercritical. If the peak flood velocity does not reach this critical value, f.i. during neap tide, fluid mud is not entrained up to the OBS sensors. Thus, it is not classical tidal asymmetry, but the peak flood velocity itself which governs the hyper-turbid state in the Lower Ems River. The crucial role of river flow and river floods is in reducing these peak flood velocities. During elongated periods of high river flow, in e.g. wintertime, SPM concentrations reduce, and the soft mud deposits consolidate and possibly become locally armoured as well by sand washed in from the river. We have no observations that sediments are washed out of the hyper-turbid zone. Down-estuary of Terborg, where SPM values do not reach hyper-turbid conditions, the SPM dynamics are governed by classical tidal asymmetry and estuarine circulation. Hence, nowhere in the river, sediments are flushed from the upper reaches of the river into the Ems-Dollard estuary during high river flow events. However, exchange of sediment between river and estuary should occur because of tide-induced dispersion.  相似文献   

On the small-scale fractal geometrical structure of a living coral reef barrier     

Damien Sous  Frédéric Bouchette  Erik Doerflinger  Samuel Meulé  Raphael Certain  Gwladys Toulemonde  Benjamin Dubarbier  Bernard Salvat 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):3042-3054

The topographical complexity of coral reefs is of primary importance for a number of hydrodynamical and ecological processes. The present study is based on a series of high-resolution seabottom elevation measurements along the Maupiti Barrier Reef, French Polynesia. Several statistical metrics and spectral analysis are used to characterize the spatial evolution of the coral geometrical structure from the reef crest to the backreef. A consistent fractal-like power law exists in the spectral density of bottom elevation for length scales between 0.1 and 7 m, while at larger scale, the reef structure shows a different pattern. Such a fine characterization of the reef geometrical structure provides key elements to reconstruct the reef history, to improve the representation of reef roughness in hydrodynamical models and to monitor the evolution of coral reef systems in the context of global change. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Plasma sheet particle precipitation: A kinetic model     

J. Lemaire  M. Scherer 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(2):281-289

Ionospheric and plasma sheet particle densities, fluxes and bulk velocities along an auroral magnetic field line have been calculated for an ion-exosphere model. It is shown that such a collisionless model accounts for many features observed above the auroral regions. Except for very strong plasma sheet electron precipitation, no large potential difference is needed along the magnetic field lines to account for the usual proton and electron fluxes, their pitch angle distributions, and auroral field aligned currents.  相似文献   

Mapping mountain areas: learning from Global,European and Norwegian perspectives     

Martin F.PRICE  Tor ARNESEN  Erik GL?ERSEN  Marc J.METZGER 《山地科学学报》2019,(1):1-15

Defining the spatial extent of mountain areas has long been a challenge. In the present century, the availability of digital elevation models(DEMs) incorporated into geographic information systems(GIS) has allowed the definition of mountain areas based on topographic and other criteria. This paper presents the various delineations of mountains that have been prepared at three scales – global, regional(Europe), and national – and explores the reasons and processes leading to these delineations, and how they have been used. A detailed case study is then presented for Norway. Overall, two types of approaches to mapping mountains have been taken: first, considering mountains per se, based on elevation and/or topography; second, considering them among other categories, e.g., landforms or biogeographical, environmental or landscape zones. All attempts to map mountain areas derive essentially from the objectives of those commissioning and/or undertaking the work; a unitary definition remains unlikely.  相似文献   

“Convoluted Journeys”: Integrating Nonprofit Organizations and University Science     

Vanessa Crossgrove Fry  Jen Schneider  Sally Sargeant-Hu  Carl Anderson  Erik Olson 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(3):239-254

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Spatial Planning on the Semantic Web     

Rinke Hoekstra  Radboud Winkels  Erik Hupkes 《Transactions in GIS》2010,14(2):147-161

Land use regulations are an important but often underrated legal domain. In densely populated regions such as the Netherlands, spatial plans have a profound impact on both (local) governments and citizens. This article describes our work on a ‘Legal Atlas’. Using Semantic Web technology we combine distributed geospatial data, textual data and controlled vocabularies to support users in answering questions such as: “What activity is allowed here?” Spatial norms are represented using OWL 2 in a way that enables intuitive visualisation of their effects: map‐based legal case assessment. Users can represent a (simple) case by selecting or drawing an area on the map. Given a designation for that area, the system can assess whether this is allowed or not. The same solution also enables the comparison of two or more sets of spatial norms that govern the same region. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of a number of alternative solutions for representing and integrating metadata of spatial plans, and the representation of normative conflicts and exceptions between norms.  相似文献