Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes     

Rafael Rosolem  Hoshin V. Gupta  W. James Shuttleworth  Luis Gustavo Gonçalves de Gonçalves  Xubin Zeng 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2075-2097

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Jurassic‐to‐present thermal history of the central High Atlas (Morocco) assessed by low‐temperature thermochronology     

Luis Barbero  Antonio Teixell  María‐Luisa Arboleya  Pedro del Río  Peter W. Reiners  Blaid Bougadir 《地学学报》2007,19(1):58-64

Apatite fission track (AFT) and (U–Th)/He data from the High Atlas have been obtained for the first time to constrain the tectono‐thermal evolution of the central part of the chain. Results from Palaeozoic basement massifs indicate long residence at low temperatures, consistently with their original location out of the deepest Mesozoic rift troughs and indicating minor exhumation. The best rocks for extracting the Alpine history of the Atlas Mountains are Jurassic intrusives, which yield AFT ages centred on c. 80 Ma; thermal models based on AFT data and constrained by (U–Th)/He suggest that these ages are included in a slow cooling trend from intrusion age to c. 50 Ma ago that we attribute to post‐rift thermal relaxation. This is followed by a stability period of c. 30 Ma and then by a final exhumational cooling until present exposure. Eocene intrusives yield AFT ages similar to those of Rb–Sr and K–Ar suggesting rapid emplacement in the uppermost crust.  相似文献   

Mid-infrared, spatially resolved spectroscopy of the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy     

Patrick F. Roche  Christopher Packham  Charles M. Telesco  James T. Radomski  Almudena Alonso-Herrero  David K. Aitken  Luis Colina  Eric Perlman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(4):1689-1698

High spatial resolution spectroscopy at 8–13 μm with T-ReCS on Gemini-S has revealed striking variations in the mid-infrared emission and absorption in the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy (hereafter Circinus) on subarcsecond scales. The core of Circinus is compact and obscured by a substantial column of cool silicate dust. Weak extended emission to the east and west coincides with the coronal line region and arises from featureless dust grains which are probably heated by line emission in the coronal emission zone. The extended emission on the east side of the nucleus displays a much deeper silicate absorption than that on the west, indicating significant columns of cool material along the line of sight and corresponding to an additional extinction of   A_V ∼ 25 mag  . Emission bands from aromatic hydrocarbons are not subject to this additional extinction, are relatively weak in the core and in the coronal line region, and are much more spatially extended than the continuum dust emission; they presumably arise in the circumnuclear star-forming regions. These data are interpreted in terms of an inclined disc-like structure around the nucleus extending over tens of parsecs and possibly related to the inner disc found from observations of water masers by Greenhill et al..  相似文献   

Geochemical evidence (C,N and Pb isotopes) of recent anthropogenic impact in south‐central Chile from two environmentally distinct lake sediment records     

Nathalie Fagel  Sebastien Bertrand  Nadine Mattielli  Delphine Gilson  Luis Chirinos  Gilles Lepoint  Roberto Urrutia 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(7):1100-1112

In this paper, we compare the elemental and isotopic (C, N, Pb) geochemistry of lake sediments from two contrasted environments in south‐central Chile. The first lake, Laguna Chica de San Pedro (LCSP), is situated in the urbanised area of the Biobio Region (36°S). The second lake, Lago Puyehue (40° S), is located 400 km to the southeast of LCSP and within an Andean national park. Our aim is to identify environmental impacts associated with increasing industrial activities and land degradation during the last 150 a. In LCSP, shifts in C/N atomic ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N from 1915–1937 to the late 1980s are attributed to successive land degradation episodes in the lake watershed. Based on a Pb isotopic mixing model, we estimate that up to 20% of lead in LCSP sediments is supplied from urban atmospheric pollution. By contrast, human impact in the watershed of Lago Puyehue is very limited. We observe no change in organic geochemistry during the last 150 a and lead contamination remains lower than 5%, even during the last decades. Although contamination levels are much higher in LCSP than in Lago Puyehue, a peak in anthropogenic Pb is recorded during the same period (1974–1976) at both sites. This maximum contamination level is consistent with increased industrial activity in the vicinity of Concepción. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

shinyNORRRM: A Cross-Platform Software to Calculate the CIPW Norm     

González-Guzmán  Reneé  Elizondo-Pacheco  Luis Alejandro  González-Roque  Abraham  Sánchez-Torres  Carlos Eduardo  Cárdenas-Muñoz  Kevin Samuel 《Mathematical Geosciences》2023,55(4):563-577

In this paper, a novelty-free software to assess an efficient CIPW Norm (± 0.006 wt.% in differences between input and output data) is presented. The package is available in the official repository for user-contributed R packages (CRAN: Comprehensive R Archive Network). The software is able to handle big data sets and considers minor and trace element compositions. The algorithm can calculate odd minerals in igneous rocks, such as cancrinite and calcite, adjust the Fe⁺³/Fe⁺² ratio in different standard approaches, and recalculate the compositions of the rocks in an anhydrous basis (100 ± 0.003 wt.% volatile-free adjusted). Furthermore, the package calculates several petrological parameters, and the graphical outputs are displayed following IUGS scheme standards. The prime aspect of shinyNORRRM is the symbiosis of native R functions with the R package’s shiny (Web Application Framework for R) to run the norm in a user-friendly interface. shinyNORRRM can be executed in any operating system and requires no previous programming knowledge, thus promising to be the universal computational program in this matter. The output data are printed in the standard comma-separated values (*.csv) format, which is highly compatible with general spreadsheet editors. In this work, the algorithm of our program is validated using already compiled whole-rock geochemical databases.

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Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region     

Tsering  Karma  Shrestha  Manish  Shakya  Kiran  Bajracharya  Birendra  Matin  Mir  Lozano  Jorge Luis Sanchez  Nelson  Jim  Wangchuk  Tandin  Parajuli  Binod  Bhuyan  Md Arifuzzaman 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(3):1821-1845

Natural Hazards - The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of...  相似文献   

A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology     

Knighton  James  Bastidas  Luis A. 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):699-723

Natural Hazards - We expand on existing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) approaches by presenting a methodology wherein the epistemic uncertainties associated with tsunami timing,...  相似文献   

Volcanism–sedimentation interaction in the Campo de Calatrava Volcanic Field (Spain): a magnetostratigraphic and geochronological study     

Antonio Herrero-Hernández  Francisco Javier López-Moro  José Luis Gallardo-Millán  Ángel Martín-Serrano  Fernando Gómez-Fernández 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2015,104(1):103-122

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THz photometers for solar flare observations from space     

Pierre Kaufmann  Rogério Marcon  André Abrantes  Emilio C. Bortolucci  Luis Olavo T. Fernandes  Grigory I. Kropotov  Amauri S. Kudaka  Nelson Machado  Adolfo Marun  Valery Nikolaev  Alexandre Silva  Claudemir S. da Silva  Alexander Timofeevsky 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(3):579-598

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.  相似文献   

Modelling mechanical behaviour of limestone under reservoir conditions     

Lúcia Carvalho Coelho  Antonio Claudio Soares  Nelson Francisco F. Ebecken  Jos Luis Drummond Alves  Luiz Landau 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(14):1477-1500

High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献