土地利用生态服务价值与经济发展的协调及空间分异——以西洞庭湖区为例   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

陈端吕  陈哲夫  彭保发 《地理研究》2018,37(9):1692-1703

土地利用生态服务价值体现了土地通过集约利用与空间优化所发挥生态效益的大小,可在一定程度上反映土地利用与与经济发展的协调关系。以西洞庭湖区为研究对象,在ArcGIS软件支持下,通过评价与分析生态服务价值变化,分析生态经济协调发展水平及其空间差异,探讨土地利用生态服务价值与区域经济发展的互动响应与耦合协调关系。研究表明：① 2000年以来西洞庭湖区土地利用生态服务价值呈下降趋势,2000年西洞庭湖区生态服务价值为1292.13×10⁶元·a^-1,2011年为953.03×10⁶元·a^-1,损失339.10×10⁶元。② 从整个研究区来看,整个研究阶段处于低度冲突的县有6个,分别为常德市辖区、安乡县、汉寿县、澧县、临澧县、津市市,只有桃源县处于潜在危机状态。从数量上看,整个区域内大多为冲突状态,区域在经济发展中存在的潜在危机较大。③ 从空间分异来看,2008年与2011年土地利用生态经济协调度基本上为低度冲突状态,需采取生态服务供给恢复与重建措施,控制生态服务消费需求的过快增长。整个区域只有桃源县与汉寿县由不协调转换为协调状态,主要原因是森林覆盖率相对较高,林地类型面积大,水土保持与水源涵养生态服务功能较强,提高了生态服务价值。  相似文献   

基于生态足迹的中国四大沙地地区可持续评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

于娜  赵媛媛  丁国栋  崔晓  彭玏 《干旱区地理》2018,41(6):1310-1320

基于社会经济统计数据,采用生产性生态足迹模型,评估并对比了我国四大沙地地区2000年和2015年的生产性生态足迹和生态赤字/盈余状态,以揭示区域的可持续性。结果表明：2000-2015年,四大沙地地区人均生态足迹总体呈现增加趋势,毛乌素沙地地区人均生态足迹年均增长率最高,达20.85%,增长量为79.21 hm²·人^-1;人均生态足迹主要以化石能源足迹和草地足迹为主;2000-2015年四大沙地地区生态赤字程度在不断增强,毛乌素沙地地区人均生态赤字变化量最大,达79.51 hm²·人^-1,造成赤字程度加大的主要原因是地区化石能源的大量生产。随着人们生活水平的提高,人们对资源的需求量也在不断增加,当前四大沙地地区社会经济的发展在一定程度上仍以自然资源大量生产和消耗为代价,经济发展和环境保护之间的平衡仍存在挑战,需要根据各地区的具体情况制定有针对性的管理措施,以维持区域的可持续发展。  相似文献   

市场化背景下中国城市电视市场结构空间格局演变 ——以30个省会城市、直辖市为例     

彭颖  翁时秀  李立勋 《热带地理》2018,38(4):504-515

在回顾电视传媒市场化改革的基础上,结合时空分析、标准距离法和决策树C5.0演算法,研究了2005―2015年4个直辖市和26个省会城市电视市场结构的空间格局演变及其影响因素。结果发现：电视市场空间格局存在3阶段变化特征,市场化发展期为南北差异格局,市场化推进期为东西差异格局,市场化深化期东西差异格局进一步细化;文化差异、电视传媒发展、市场的“马太效应”分别是3个市场化阶段电视市场结构空间格局演变的主要原因,市场化使电视市场结构从文化差异主导的空间格局演变为经济差异主导的空间格局。  相似文献   

The Beach Crowding Index: A Tool for Assessing Social Carrying Capacity of Vulnerable Beaches     

David Serrano Giné  Joan Jurado Rota  María Yolanda Pérez Albert  Carla Bonfill Cerveró 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(3):412-422

The aim of this article is to introduce the Beach Crowding Index (BCI), a procedure to assess the social carrying capacity of vulnerable beaches. The study uses the people at one time (PAOT) approach and data gathered weekly throughout the bathing season regarding the number of beachgoers in 100 m² cells of the beach to assess how many beachgoers it can comfortably hold. The procedure is based on fieldwork, interviews with beachgoers, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis and has been tested on four beaches in protected areas on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. On a scale from 0 to 4, minimum scores throughout the bathing season are 0.7 and maximum 3.7, although results showed wide variation between the beaches, the section of the beach, and the time of day. This study suggests that determining the location of beachgoers and collecting a long-term series of data is fundamental to assessing social carrying capacity and that the BCI procedure can be used for a large number of applications.  相似文献   

沉积物记录的亚高山湖泊环境变化——以鄂东南云中湖为例     

彭佳  黄春玲  陈旭 《地理研究》2018,37(1):220-230

根据云中湖27 cm长沉积岩芯进行元素、粒度和硅藻多指标分析以及²¹⁰Pb测年,结合流域气候和人类活动等历史资料,反演1958年以来云中湖在气候变化和人类活动影响下的环境变化。冗余分析结果显示云中湖沉积硅藻组合变化与Al、Fe、Pb和温度四个变量显著相关。硅藻属种聚类分析的结果表明云中湖环境变化经历了两个阶段：1958-1993年间喜碱性水体的Achnanthes minutissima和Fragilaria nanana属种大量出现与较高CIA指数响应于气候调控下的流域侵蚀过程;1993年以来气候变暖与旅游发展引起入湖营养盐增加是Cyclotella pseudostelligera和Aulacoseira alpigena等中—富营养硅藻种增殖的主要诱因。重建亚高山湖泊在气候变化以及人类活动影响下湖泊生态系统的演化,为保护亚高山湖泊生态环境和改善流域水质提供参考。  相似文献   

Factors that contributed to recent eutrophication of two Slovenian mountain lakes     

Gregor Muri  Branko Čermelj  Radojko Jaćimović  Tina Ravnikar  Andrej Šmuc  Janja Turšič  Polona Vreča 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2018,59(4):411-426

Increased eutrophication was recently observed in the 5th (5J) and 6th (6J) Triglav Lakes, two remote Slovenian mountain lakes. Sediment phosphorus (P) pools were analysed and potential external P sources affecting the lakes (atmospheric deposition, terrestrial export and nearby hut) evaluated, to assess the effects of internal and external changes on the lakes. A sequential extraction procedure was used to quantify five P fractions from the sediments: adsorbed (NH₄Cl–P), redox-sensitive (BD–P), aluminium- (NaOH–P) and calcium- (HCl–P) bound, and refractory organic (Res–P) P. Total phosphorus (TP) contents in surface sediment of 5J and 6J were 1430 and 641 µg P g^?1 dry weight sediment (dw), respectively. TP varied with depth in 5J sediments, but displayed no discernible pattern, whereas it decreased steadily downcore in 6J. Contents of all P forms were distinctly higher in 5J than 6J, but their rank order and relative abundances were similar in the two lakes. Res–P was the most abundant P fraction, followed by HCl–P. Together, the two P forms accounted for nearly 80 and 90% of TP in 5J and 6J sediments, respectively. BD–P and NaOH–P were less abundant, with each fraction accounting for 3 to 9% of TP, whereas NH₄Cl–P was least abundant. Atmospheric deposition and terrestrial export were substantial sources of P for the lakes. Delivery of the former was estimated to be at least 7.5 mg P m^?2 yr^?1 and the latter around 20 mg P m^?2 yr^?1. We concluded that P was not retained in the catchment effectively, likely because of only slightly acidic soil pH (5.9), relatively low aluminium content and high organic matter content (53%) in soils, resulting in higher vulnerability of the studied lakes to eutrophication. The mountain hut could also be a significant source of P for the lakes. Each year, it could potentially contribute ~12 kg of soluble P to the environment, but the true impact of the hut on lake trophic status remains unclear.  相似文献   

Analyzing long-term spatial variability of blue and green water footprints in a semi-arid mountainous basin with MIROC-ESM model (case study: Kashafrood River Basin,Iran)     

A.?Aghakhani AfsharEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Y.?Hassanzadeh  M.?Pourreza-Bilondi  A.?Ahmadi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):885-903

Atmospheric modeling is considered an important tool with several applications such as prediction of air pollution levels, air quality management, and environmental impact assessment studies. Therefore, evaluation studies must be continuously made, in order to improve the accuracy and the approaches of the air quality models. In the present work, an attempt is made to examine the air pollution model (TAPM) efficiency in simulating the surface meteorology, as well as the SO₂ concentrations in a mountainous complex terrain industrial area. Three configurations under different circumstances, firstly with default datasets, secondly with data assimilation, and thirdly with updated land use, ran in order to investigate the surface meteorology for a 3-year period (2009–2011) and one configuration applied to predict SO₂ concentration levels for the year of 2011.The modeled hourly averaged meteorological and SO₂ concentration values were statistically compared with those from five monitoring stations across the domain to evaluate the model’s performance. Statistical measures showed that the surface temperature and relative humidity are predicted well in all three simulations, with index of agreement (IOA) higher than 0.94 and 0.70 correspondingly, in all monitoring sites, while an overprediction of extreme low temperature values is noted, with mountain altitudes to have an important role. However, the results also showed that the model’s performance is related to the configuration regarding the wind. TAPM default dataset predicted better the wind variables in the center of the simulation than in the boundaries, while improvement in the boundary horizontal winds implied the performance of TAPM with updated land use. TAPM assimilation predicted the wind variables fairly good in the whole domain with IOA higher than 0.83 for the wind speed and higher than 0.85 for the horizontal wind components. Finally, the SO₂ concentrations were assessed by the model with IOA varied from 0.37 to 0.57, mostly dependent on the grid/monitoring station of the simulated domain. The present study can be used, with relevant adaptations, as a user guideline for future conducting simulations in mountainous complex terrain.  相似文献   

Winter severity and snowiness and their multiannual variability in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains     

Grzegorz?UrbanEmail author  Dá?a?Richterová  Stanislava?Kliegrová  Ilona?Zusková  Piotr?Pawliczek 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(1-2):221-240

This paper analyses winter severity and snow conditions in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains and examines their long-term trends. The analysis used modified comprehensive winter snowiness (WSW) and winter severity (WOW) indices as defined by Paczos (1982). An attempt was also made to determine the relationship between the WSW and WOW indices. Measurement data were obtained from eight stations operated by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW–PIB), from eight stations operated by the Czech Hydrological and Meteorological Institute (CHMI) and also from the Meteorological Observatory of the University of Wroc?aw (UWr) on Mount Szrenica. Essentially, the study covered the period from 1961 to 2015. In some cases, however, the period analysed was shorter due to the limited availability of data, which was conditioned, inter alia, by the period of operation of the station in question, and its type.Viewed on a macroscale, snow conditions in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains (in similar altitude zones) are clearly more favourable on southern slopes than on northern ones. In the study area, negative trends have been observed with respect to both the WSW and WOW indices—winters have become less snowy and warmer. The correlation between the WOW and WSW indices is positive. At stations with northern macroexposure, WOW and WSW show greater correlation than at ones with southern macroexposure. This relationship is the weakest for stations that are situated in the upper ranges (Mount ?nie?ka and Mount Szrenica).  相似文献   

Changes in heat wave characteristics over Extremadura (SW Spain)     

Acero  Francisco Javier  Fernández-Fernández  María Isabel  Carrasco  Víctor Manuel Sánchez  Parey  Sylvie  Hoang  Thi Thu Huong  Dacunha-Castelle  Didier  García  José Agustín 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):605-617

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human...  相似文献   

基于数值预报和随机森林算法的强对流天气分类预报技术   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

李文娟  赵放  郦敏杰  陈列  彭霞云 《气象》2018,44(12):1555-1564

随机森林算法是当前得到较为广泛应用的机器学习方法之一,有着很高的预测精度,训练结果稳定,泛化能力强,解决多分类问题有明显优势。本文将随机森林算法应用于强对流的潜势预测和分类,分短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹和无强对流四种类别,基于2005—2016年NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料计算的对流指数和物理量,开展强对流天气的分类训练、0～12 h预报和检验,经2015—2016年独立测试样本检验表明,针对强对流发生站点的点对点检验,整体误判率为21. 9%,85次强对流过程基本无漏报,模型尤其适用于较大范围强对流天气。随机森林算法筛选的因子物理意义较为明确,和主观预报经验基本相符,模型准确率高,可用于日常业务。  相似文献