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61.
Ocean Dynamics - While moderate wind and wave conditions prevail in the eastern equatorial Pacific, modeling waves in this area remains challenging due to the presence of multiple wave systems...  相似文献   
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In this study the damage suffered by churches during the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in Italy is analysed, based on surveys and inspections carried out in the area. Similarly to what was observed after other Italian earthquakes, the damage to churches was severe. However, the Emilia churches present some characteristic features such as the use of unreinforced clay brick masonry. In order to appropriately address the performance of this class of buildings, typical architectural layouts and construction techniques are described. Such techniques are interpreted also in the light of the local seismic catalogue. Fifty churches are then selected and their damage is studied, with reference to typical local-collapse mechanisms of different macro-elements. The study highlights that the damage is often concentrated at the top section of the façade, in the clerestory walls, in the vaults and in the bell towers. Structural analyses are performed to explain some of the observations. The overturning of the top section of the façade is analytically addressed, modelling the friction interlocking. With reference to the case study of San Francesco in Mirandola, non-linear static and dynamic analyses allow us to correlate the directionality of damage to the higher seismic demand along the NS direction, to point out the negligible role of the large vertical component of ground motion and to emphasise the relevance of the buttresses for the seismic response of the façade.  相似文献   
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Between 1994 and 2010, we completed 16 thermal surveys of Vulcano’s Fossa fumarole field (Aeolian Islands, Italy). In each survey, between 400 and 1,200 vent temperatures were collected using a thermal infrared thermometer from distances of ~1?m. The results show a general decrease in average vent temperature during 1994–2003, with the average for the entire field falling from ~220°C in 1994 to ~150°C by 2003. However, between 2004 and 2010, we witnessed heating, with the average increasing to ~190°C by 2010. Alongside these annual-scale field-wide trends, we record a spatial re-organisation of the fumarole field, characterised by shut down of vent zones towards the crater floor, matched by rejuvenation of zones located towards the crater rim. Heating may be expected to be associated with deflation because increased amounts of vaporisation will remove volume from the hydrothermal system Gambino and Guglielmino (J Geophys Res 113:B07402, 2008). However, over the 2004–2010 heating period, no ground deformation was observed. Instead, the number of seismic events increased from a typical rate of 37 events per month during 1994–2000 to 195 events per month during 2004–2010. As part of this increase, we noticed a much greater number of high-frequency events associated with rock fracturing. We thus suggest that the heating event of 2004–2010 was the result of changed permeability conditions, rather than change in the heat supply from the deeper magmatic source. Within this scenario, cooling causes shut down of lower sectors and re-establishment of pathways located towards the crater rim, causing fracturing, increased seismicity and heat flow in these regions. This is consistent with the zone of rejuvenation (which lies towards and at the rim) being the most favourable location for fracturing given the stress field of the Fossa cone Sch?pa et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 203:133–145, 2011); it is also the most established zone, having been active at least since the early twentieth century. Our data show the value of deploying multi-disciplinary geophysical campaigns at degassing (fumarolic) hydrothermal systems. This allows more complete and constrained understanding of the true heat loss dynamics of the system. In the case study presented here, it allows us to distinguish true heating from apparent heating phases. While the former are triggered from the bottom-up, i.e. they are driven by increases in heat supply from the magmatic source, the latter are triggered from the top-down, i.e. by changing permeability conditions in the uppermost portion of the system to allow more efficient heat flow over zones predisposed to fracturing.  相似文献   
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Great emphasis is being placed on the use of rainfall intensity data at short time intervals to accurately model the dynamics of modern cropping systems, runoff, erosion and pollutant transport. However, rainfall data are often readily available at more aggregated level of time scale and measurements of rainfall intensity at higher resolution are available only at limited stations. A distribution approach is a good compromise between fine-scale (e.g. sub-daily) models and coarse-scale (e.g. daily) rainfall data, because the use of rainfall intensity distribution could substantially improve hydrological models. In the distribution approach, the cumulative distribution function of rainfall intensity is employed to represent the effect of the within-day temporal variability of rainfall and a disaggregation model (i.e. a model disaggregates time series into sets of higher solution) is used to estimate distribution parameters from the daily average effective precipitation. Scaling problems in hydrologic applications often occur at both space and time dimensions and temporal scaling effects on hydrologic responses may exhibit great spatial variability. Transferring disaggregation model parameter values from one station to an arbitrary position is prone to error, thus a satisfactory alternative is to employ spatial interpolation between stations. This study investigates the spatial interpolation of the probability-based disaggregation model. Rainfall intensity observations are represented as a two-parameter lognormal distribution and methods are developed to estimate distribution parameters from either high-resolution rainfall data or coarse-scale precipitation information such as effective intensity rates. Model parameters are spatially interpolated by kriging to obtain the rainfall intensity distribution when only daily totals are available. The method was applied to 56 pluviometer stations in Western Australia. Two goodness-of-fit statistics were used to evaluate the skill—daily and quantile coefficient of efficiency between simulations and observations. Simulations based on cross-validation show that kriging performed better than other two spatial interpolation approaches (B-splines and thin-plate splines).  相似文献   
67.
The paper presents results obtained by analyzing high-resolution ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) data set evaluated from a chain of European ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) stations and its equivalent slab thickness, as well as the F2-layer critical frequency foF2 and propagation factor M(3000)F2 from nearby ionosonde stations over the period 2006–2007. The study covers data within an area between 36°N and 68°N geographic latitude, and 7°W and 21°E geographic longitude during these last two years of minimum solar activity in the 23rd solar cycle. It reveals 15 extraordinary events, all of which exhibited some form of large short-lived vTEC and foF2 enhancements of the duration of small-magnitude solar-terrestrial events. The results clearly show a well-defined vTEC and foF2 storm-like disturbance patterns developed under these conditions. They prove that there are still some open questions related to the large electron density variations during weak disturbances that require additional study for both their relevance to different Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) applications and their role in the formation and evolution of the daytime ionosphere at middle latitudes.  相似文献   
68.
An effective way to study the complex seismic soil‐structure interaction phenomena is to investigate the response of physical scaled models in 1‐g or n‐g laboratory devices. The outcomes of an extensive experimental campaign carried out on scaled models by means of the shaking table of the Bristol Laboratory for Advanced Dynamics Engineering, University of Bristol, UK, are discussed in the present paper. The experimental model comprises an oscillator connected to a single or a group of piles embedded in a bi‐layer deposit. Different pile head conditions, that is free head and fixed head, several dynamic properties of the structure, including different masses at the top of the single degree of freedom system, excited by various input motions, e.g. white noise, sinedwells and natural earthquake strong motions recorded in Italy, have been tested. In the present work, the modal dynamic response of the soil–pile–structure system is assessed in terms of period elongation and system damping ratio. Furthermore, the effects of oscillator mass and pile head conditions on soil–pile response have been highlighted, when the harmonic input motions are considered. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
69.
This article analyzes the territorial disparities in the level of land vulnerability (TDLV) to soil degradation caused by five processes (soil erosion, salinization, sealing, contamination, and compaction) as well as by climate variations in Italy in 1990 and 2000. The analysis reveals, for each soil degradation process, a typical spatial distribution across Italy. Three processes (soil salinization, compaction, and sealing) contribute significantly to the increase in land vulnerability, which is mainly concentrated in risky areas. The observed disparities highlight a growing environmental divide between northern Italy (an economically developed region, not at risk of desertification) and southern Italy and the two main islands (dry, disadvantaged regions at risk of desertification). The knowledge of such a territorial divide and of the underlying soil degradation processes is regarded as important for environmental policies at the country and regional scales aimed at sustaining the economic and socioenvironmental cohesion between areas that are either vulnerable or nonvulnerable to soil degradation. The proposed approach should be seen as part of a decision-making tool informing policies and supporting the design of management solutions, hopefully reversing disparities in land vulnerability to soil degradation.  相似文献   
70.
The predictability of meteo-oceanographic events   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
We have explored the predictability of storms in a small enclosed basin with a complicated surrounding orography. We have considered two exceptional storms in the far past and three mild events happened in recent years. A posteriori forecasts have been done up to 6 days before the events. The results have been compared versus measured data and the related analysis. Good predictability (10–15% error in surface wind speed and wave height) have been found up to day 4, mildly larger (<30%) up to day 6 before the event. In no case was a storm missed. This suggests that the effective predictability in more open basins may extend to even larger ranges.  相似文献   
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