A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. F. Krstanovic  V. P. Singh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(3):173-188

This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.  相似文献   

Kalman滤波在黄河上游融雪期径流预报中的应用初探   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

宋强 《冰川冻土》1991,13(1):27-34

  相似文献   

1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马地震的水氡异常     

罗平 《地震研究》1991,14(1):41-49

本文研究了1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马7.6和7.2级地震的水氡异常,认为:1.震前中期、短期及临震各阶段异常均有显示;2.中期异常是趋势性上升的高值异常,它占全部异常的比例,与国内其它几次7级地震相比较略偏低;3.短期异常中有高值和低值异常,位于震中区及北西向腾冲-耿马地震带上的水氡观测点,以氡浓度降低的负异常为主要特征;4.震中周围300公里内未发现临震异常,它多出现在300—500公里范围内,特别集中在小江断裂带上。  相似文献   

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Shengming  Cao Hongxing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(1):90-100

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.  相似文献   

地电阻率短临异常研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

彭远黔  王志贤 《华北地震科学》1994,12(1):71-76

应用相干加强的方法对地电阻率（以下科称ρｓ）资料进行的数学处理，表明了ρｓ短临异常突出明显的结果。为此本文对所出现的异常特征及短临异常的判别与地震预报了研究。  相似文献   

利用GMS－4红外云图资料定量测量淮河流域汛期降水     

傅德胜  尹新怀  徐慧 《南京气象学院学报》1994,(2)

提出和介绍了利用ＧＭＳ－４红外云图资料定量测量淮河流域汛期降水的ＣＴ－ＴＲＣ（ｃｌｏｕｄｔｏｐｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅｒａｉｎｆｕｌｌｃｕｒｖｅ，云顶温度－降水量曲线）方法及实现步骤，并结合个例进行了分析。  相似文献   

南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

高智松  魏柏温 《气象》1994,20(4):41-43

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。  相似文献   

1989年3月13日武昌地区太阳耀斑事件效应的观测结果          下载免费PDF全文

赵正予  雷源汉 《地球物理学报》1989,32(6):711-715

1989年3月13日太阳耀斑事件产生了丰富的地球物理效应。耀斑激波和耀斑粒子流引起强烈地磁暴。在武昌地区,磁暴急始发生于地方时3月13日09h30min,其初相期持续10小时（3月13日09h30min-19h20min）,主相期持续13小时（3月13日19h20min-3月14日08h20min）,至3月16日05h20min始恢复平静（图1）。  相似文献   

1993年沐川5.0级地震预测及其震灾评估     

刘盛利  吕贵选 《四川地震》1995,(2):59-64

１９９３年８月７日沐川凤村５．０级地震前，省、市地震部门曾提出过中短期预测意见。事实表明所作判断在一定程度上是准确的。震后进行了现场考查及震害评估。其震中烈度为Ⅶ度，震中区呈近东西向椭圆形。地震造成３人受伤，总经济损失达１０８２．２万元。  相似文献   

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area     

L. Lanza  M. Conti 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(2):163-181

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.  相似文献