Development of partial factor design method on bending strength of piles for Japanese Specifications for Highway Bridges     

Toshiaki Nanazawa  Tetsuya Kouno  Gaku Sakashita  Takashi Nakaura 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(3):176-184

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of a partial factor design method on the bending strength of piles for the Japanese Specifications for Highway Bridges. First, uncertainties in mobilised bending moments and yield bending moments were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. Second, the reliability of piles designed by the previous specifications were evaluated on the basis of reliability analysis considering uncertainties in the mobilised bending moments, yield bending moments, and other factors. Finally, a partial factor design method utilising a survey subsurface investigation method and ground type was developed to reach target reliability levels determined by the Standards.  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation     

Dong Hyawn KIM 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):739-748

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.  相似文献   

Influence of length effect on embankment slope reliability in 3D          下载免费PDF全文

Michael A. Hicks  Yajun Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(7):891-915

Embankment slopes composed of spatially variable soils have a variety of different failure modes that are affected by the correlation distances of the material properties and the geometry and total length of the slope. This paper examines the reliability of soil slopes for embankments of different length and uses parallel computing to analyse very long embankments (up to 100 times the embankment height) for a clay soil characterised by a spatially varying undrained shear strength. Based on a series of analyses using the 3D random finite element method (RFEM), it is first shown that the reliability of slopes of various length can be efficiently computed by combining simple probability theory with a detailed 3D RFEM analysis of a representative shorter slope of length 10 times the slope height. RFEM predictions of reliability indices for longer slopes are then compared with results obtained using Vanmarcke's (1977a) simplified 3D method and Calle's (1985) extended 2D approach. It is shown that these methods can give significantly different results, depending on the horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope length, with RFEM predicting a lower slope reliability than the Vanmarcke and Calle solutions in all cases. The differences in the solutions are evaluated and attributed to differences in the assumed and computed failure surface geometries.  相似文献   

System Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Jacket Platform     

ZHAO Yuliang  DONG Sheng  JIANG Fengyuan  GUEDES SOARES Carlos 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(1):47-59

This study investigates strategies for solving the system reliability of large three-dimensional jacket structures.These structural systems normally fail as a result of a series of different components failures.The failure characteristics are investigated under various environmental conditions and direction combinations.Theβ-unzipping technique is adopted to determine critical failure components,and the entire system is simplified as a series-parallel system to approximately evaluate the structural system reliability.However,this approach needs excessive computational effort for searching failure components and failure paths.Based on a trained artificial neural network(ANN),which can be used to approximate the implicit limit-state function of a complicated structure,a new alternative procedure is proposed to improve the efficiency of the system reliability analysis method.The failure probability is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)with Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).The features and applicability of the above procedure are discussed and compared using an example jacket platform located in Chengdao Oilfield,Bohai Sea,China.This study provides a reference for the evaluation of the system reliability of jacket structures.  相似文献   

直线特征约束的资源3号卫星影像自检校平差     

伍洋  张永生  莫德林 《测绘科学技术学报》2017,(5):508-513

针对控制点获取较困难地区卫星影像定位精度不高的情况,对直线特征作为控制信息提升卫星影像定位精度进行了研究。以"像方直线上任意一点必然位于物方直线和投影中心所构成的平面"作为几何约束条件,通过对直线的参数化表示,建立了基于直线特征的共面模型;在该模型基础上,针对航天传感器的成像特点,分析建立了8标定参数的内方位元素模型和简化的外方位元素模型,最终构建了直线特征约束的卫星影像自检校平差模型。利用资源3号(ZY-3)卫星获取的华盛顿地区数据对构建的平差模型进行实验验证。结果表明,该模型能够解决缺乏地面控制点地区影像定位精度差的问题,可达到与常规自检校平差相同量级的精度。  相似文献   

天津地面相对湿度资料的非均一性检验及订正     

司鹏  罗传军  姜罕盛  徐梅 《气象》2018,44(10):1332-1341

研究中利用NCEP/DOEAMIP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)比湿再分析资料和基础观测资料两种参考序列,对天津历史月平均相对湿度数据中存在的非均一性因素进行了检验和订正。结果显示,有9个地面站的相对湿度序列存在显著断点,占台站总数的69%。查阅台站元数据得到导致其突变的主要原因是自动站业务化,其次为迁站和仪器变更。从订正量来看,负订正量比例约占96. 3%,其中分布范围在-5.0%～-1.5%,约占总订正量的80%以上。对比分析订正前后月平均相对湿度序列的方差和趋势变化,均一性订正基本修正了非均一性因素造成的突变影响,减缓相对湿度序列长期出现异常偏干的趋势变化。同时,与朱亚妮等(2015)研制的同类数据产品误差分析发现,两类数据的误差平均值较小,但由于一些主观因素影响使得个别台站MAE、SE误差值达到3. 0%以上,造成MAE、SE误差值范围在0～2%的台站比例分别仅在84. 6%和76. 9%及两者以上。从而,一定程度上能够反映出本研究所采用的数据处理技术手段相对以往具有优越性。  相似文献   

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty     

Bi Yu Chen  Donggen Wang  Shih-Lung Shaw  Hui-Ping Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):783-804

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.  相似文献   

GPS接收机内噪声水平的评价与检测方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

戴水财  朱建军  张学庄  唐利民 《测绘科学》2007,32(5):17-20

论文结合某品牌GPS接收机检测实例,提出了GPS接收机内噪声水平分布统计的评价方法,以及在超短基线场内GPS接收机内噪声水平的全新检测方法———多时段旋转检测台法。实例测试,按本方法得到的被测试GPS接收机内噪声水平标准差为0.38mm。由测试实例得到如下结论:本文的GPS接收机内噪声水平评价方法以及检测方法更加合理、可信;在超短基线场内多时段测得的同一基线长度互差应小于2mm;GPS接收机系统软件的抗噪性能对内噪声水平有着非常重要的影响。  相似文献   

考虑内定向误差的外方位元素精度分析     

山海涛  马淑宇  陈筱勇  初艳峰 《测绘科学》2007,32(1):24-25

在对数据质量的要求越来越严格的今天,我们对数据质量的评价也必须越来越系统、可靠。本文就是在系统分析的基础上推导出了求解外方位元素的误差传递模型,并从中分析了内定向误差对外方位元素精度的影响,从而改进和完善了外方位元素精度的评定方法,使得外方位元素精度的评定具有更高的精确性和可靠性。  相似文献