雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水模拟及预估     

高佳佳  杜军 《冰川冻土》2021,43(2):580-588

为了解雅鲁藏布江流域汛期极端降水的变化规律,推算一定重现期的极端降水量分位数,通过百分位法、Hill图法、年交叉率法选取阈值,借助广义帕累托分布函数（GPD）对流域极端降水频率进行了分析。结果表明：99百分位时的阈值为流域内各站点的最佳阈值,且各站点超阈值序列通过了M-K的平稳性检验,无明显突变。拟合效果通过K-S检验,各站点拟合的极端降水理论频数和实测频数基本相符。尺度参数的大值区位于流域下游,表明该地区的极值波动大;形状参数正值区位于流域中上游地区,说明发生破纪录降水事件的概率较大,拟合结果与实际观测一致。从5年一遇和10年一遇的极端降水值来看,雅江流域除拉孜站外,其他地区降水极值均超过30 mm,日喀则地区的降水极值达50 mm;各地区20年一遇和30年一遇的降水极值增长的非常缓慢。通过与实际极端降水值对比分析得出,GPD拟合计算出的重现期水平基本符合实际,即具有一定的合理性。  相似文献   

Geoarchaeological evidence on a Late Bronze Age earthquake,Ohrid Basin (North Macedonia)     

J. Hošek  M. Verčík  P. Pokorný  J. Beneš  V. Komárková  T. Radoměřský  N. Atanasoska  V. Todoroska  P. Ardjanliev 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(6):1003-1012

Geoarchaeological investigations on the northeastern shore of Lake Ohrid revealed 3.5 m thick deepwater lacustrine sediments overlying terrestrial vegetation macrofossils, worked wood and abundant potsherds dated to the Late Bronze Age (LBA). Distinct contact of deepwater sediment with the sub-aerial weathered limestone bedrock point to a sudden increase in lake level. According to radiocarbon data, catastrophic flooding occurred shortly after 1214 yr bc. Because the area is located in a highly active seismic zone, we propose that this event was caused by tectonically induced, metre-scale coseismic subsidence related to faults bordering the Ohrid alluvial plain. Moreover, this event coincides well with a dramatic switch in the habitation and settlement strategy in the region. More important, however, is the finding that the age of the proposed massive tectonic event and change in habitation lies within the interval of the proposed ‘earthquake storm’ in the eastern Mediterranean dated to 1225–1175 bc. As the Ohrid-Korça zone belongs to the same tectonic province, a relationship between the abovementioned earthquakes and the proposed event can be expected. This research therefore might provide the first direct evidence of a large-scale earthquake event linkable to the LBA collapse of Europe's first urban civilisation in the Aegean.  相似文献   

储层致密化与油气充注的关系:以三肇凹陷白垩系扶余油层为例     

斯尚华  胡张明  刘吉  刘云飞  耳闯  杨哲恒  何俊昊 《现代地质》2021,35(6):1854-1863

为了明确松辽盆地三肇凹陷扶余油层储层致密化与油气充注相关性,利用微米CT、流体包裹体显微分析、盆地模拟等方法,研究了该储层微观孔喉特征,且定量分析了其成藏期。根据储层孔隙演化信息分析了研究区储层致密化过程和油气成藏的关系。结果发现:三肇凹陷扶余致密储层岩石类型以长石岩屑砂岩和岩屑长石砂岩为主,孔喉特征表现为窄喉道、宽孔隙、孔喉配置差、微细喉道总体积大等特征。压实作用和胶结作用为储层致密化重要成因,储层致密时间应该在嫩江组末之前。流体包裹体分析结果表明三肇凹陷扶余储层油充注分为早期和晚期,相应的充注时间分别距今77~74 Ma、67~65 Ma,分别对应于嫩江组沉积期和明水组沉积末期。综合对比扶余油层油气成藏历史和储层孔隙演化特征,认为原油充注发生储层致密化之后,即先致密后成藏。  相似文献   

滇西漕涧地区崇山杂岩带始新世花岗岩的发现及其地质意义     

黄亮  浦涛  刘军平  王晓林  刘小春  熊波  宋冬虎 《地球学报》2021,42(5):579-592

崇山杂岩带为滇西三江造山系西侧边缘的一条重要边界构造,属青藏高原造山带的南东缘.带内岩浆活动强烈,前人认为其主要由晚元古代、中生代的花岗岩组成;而据地质调查发现,带内新生代的岩浆作用十分发育.本文对带内新发现的灰白色黑云二花岗岩进行研究,获得了锆石U-Pb LA-ICP-MS年龄为34.88 Ma和35.25 Ma,表明其侵位于古近纪始新世.岩石地球化学表明,黑云二花岗岩为钾玄质-高钾钙碱性系列的过铝质花岗岩类,稀土元素配分曲线为右倾,其中LREE明显富集,HREE为不同程度亏损,具明显的负Eu异常;富集Rb、Th、Ce、Sm和亏损K、Ba、Ta、Hf、Y等元素,且为淡色花岗岩特征;据锆石Hf同位素测试分析,εHf(t)值为–2.35～+2.33和TDM2为962～1259 Ma,表明了花岗岩岩浆源区为壳幔混合的产物,以及源岩主要源自中元古代—新元古代陆壳基底物质的部分熔融.综合研究认为,始新世黑云二长花岗岩形成于喜马拉雅期碰撞造山向造山晚期转换阶段,是一套典型的"超厚地壳"部分熔融和壳幔相互作用的淡色花岗岩;以及其侵位时间代表了漕涧地区喜马拉雅碰撞造山阶段的完成和造山晚期阶段的开始,且转换时间约为35 Ma.  相似文献   

Sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy of the mixed clastic-carbonate deposits in the Late Paleozoic icehouse period: A case study from the northern Qaidam Basin     

《China Geology》2021,4(4):673-685

The widely-developed, mixed clastic-carbonate succession in the northern Qaidam Basin records the paleo-environment changes under the glacial activity during the Late Paleozoic icehouse period in the context of regional tectonic stability, however, the depositional environment and sequence stratigraphy characteristics of the mixed deposits is rarely reported and still not clear. Combined the latest drilling wells data, we analyzed the sedimentary and stratigraphic characterization of the mixed strata via detailed field outcrops and core observations and thin section microscopic observations and recognized three depositional systems, including progradational coastal system, incised valley system, and carbonate-dominated marine shelf system, and identified four third-order sequences, SQ1, SQ2, SQ3 and SQ4, consisting of LST, TST, and HST. The depositional environment is overall belonged to marine-continental transition context and shifted from marine to continental environment frequently, showing an evolutionary pattern from marine towards terrestrial-marine transition and then back into the marine environment again in the long-term, which was controlled by the regional tectonic subsidence and the high-frequency and large-amplitude sea-level changes due to the Late Paleozoic glacial activity. The result is of significance in understanding the evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the sedimentation-climate response.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

1960—2017年沈阳地区春播期降水变化特征     

慕臣英  张郁  徐全辉  宋晓巍  张菁  李石  高桐 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(3):106-111

基于1960—2017年沈阳市5个气象观测站4—5月降水量资料,采用线性趋势法和累积距平分析了沈阳市春播期(4—5月)降水量演变特征,并分析首场透雨及最大连续无有效降水日数演变特征及对春播期降水量影响,对春播期降水量资源变化特征进行相关分析。结果表明:近58a沈阳春播期降水量整体呈现弱的增加趋势,平均每10a增加3.1mm,2004年开始降水量迅速增加,且波动性较大,降水量异常偏多或偏少年份较多,易诱发春旱春涝事件。春播期首场透雨出现日期平均每10a偏晚0.051d,首场透雨日期偏晚,将导致春播期前期雨水条件不足,引起土壤干旱,不利于春播开展。最大连续无有效降水日数呈波动性增加趋势,平均每10a增加0.56d,对4月降水量影响较大,虽然春播期降水资源总量增加,但存在降水资源时间分配不均的问题,且长时间无有效降水事件频发,将导致春播期干旱灾害事件发生风险加大,导致适播期延后。  相似文献   

秦岭成矿带印支期构造演化与金的成矿关系——以夏河临潭地区为例     

范堡程  杨晓奇  李航  薛仲凯  栾晓刚  董启明  杨宗枫 《地质论评》2024,70(S1):118-120

  相似文献   

A joint distribution of significant wave height and characteristic surf parameter     

Dag Myrhaug  Sébastien Fouques 《Coastal Engineering》2010

The paper provides a joint distribution of significant wave height and characteristic surf parameter. The characteristic surf parameter is given by the ratio between the slope of a beach or a structure and the square root of the characteristic wave steepness in deep water defined in terms of the significant wave height and the spectral peak period. The characteristic surf parameter is used to characterize surf zone processes and is relevant for e.g. wave run-up on beaches and coastal structures. The paper presents statistical properties of the wave parameters as well as an example of results corresponding to typical field conditions.  相似文献   

梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论和方法          下载免费PDF全文

郭生练  熊立华  熊丰  尹家波 《水科学进展》1990,31(5):734-745

人类活动和气候变化显著地改变了河川径流及洪水的时空分配过程，直接影响下游断面的设计洪水。本文综述水库对下游水文情势的影响，提出梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论方法和研究内容；重点探讨非一致性洪水频率分析和基于Copula函数的最可能地区洪水组成法，比较各种方法的实用性；推荐采用运行期设计洪水及汛控水位指导水库调度运行，建议进一步加强水库运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法研究。  相似文献   

未来地震震级的定量计算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蔡静观  刘正荣 《地震研究》1989,(3)

将某一地震带在强震前某一时期内发生的地震,按其面波震级大小自大到小排列,并以N=2、3、4、……来累计频度,采用公式logN=a-bM计算a、b,从而计算出第一个地震的震级M_1,这就是未来可能发生地震的震级。通过对川滇地区和华北地区的九次近期强震进行计算,结果表明,在震级测定误差范围(±0.3级)内,上述的M和logN之间具有很好的线性关系,这就为地震预报和地震区划中定量计算未来地震震级提出了一个新的方法。  相似文献