The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.  相似文献   

Discrete modeling of strain accumulation in granular soils under low amplitude cyclic loading     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

An advanced understanding of the strain accumulation phenomenon in granular soils subjected to low amplitude cyclic loading with relatively high frequency is needed to enhance the ability to predict the settlement of granular soils induced by vibrations. In the current study, the discrete element method is used to study this phenomenon. A loose and a medium dense sample composed of a relatively large number of spheres are considered. A series of stress controlled cyclic triaxial tests with different excitation amplitudes and frequencies is performed on these samples at different static stress states. The response of these samples at the macroscopic and microscopic scales is analyzed. The sample density, the cyclic stress amplitude and the static stress state importantly affect strain accumulation. However, the cyclic excitation frequency has a small effect on strain accumulation. At the microscopic scale, frictional sliding occurring at a few contacts continuously dissipates energy and the fraction of these contacts varies periodically during cyclic loading. The coordination number of these samples increases slightly as strain accumulates. However, the anisotropy remains almost constant during low amplitude cyclic excitation. A qualitatively good agreement between numerical and experimental results is found.  相似文献   

Low-pressure evolution of arc magmas in thickened crust: The San Pedro–Linzor volcanic chain,Central Andes,Northern Chile     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2014

Magmatism at Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), or Central Andes, is strongly influenced by differentiation and assimilation at high pressures that occurred at lower levels of the thick continental crust. This is typically shown by high light to heavy rare earth element ratios (LREE/HREE) of the erupted lavas at this volcanic zone. Increase of these ratios with time is interpreted as a change to magma evolution in the presence of garnet during evolution of Central Andes. Such geochemical signals could be introduced into the magmas be high-pressure fractionation with garnet on the liquidus and/or assimilation from crustal rocks with a garnet-bearing residue. However, lavas erupted at San Pedro–Linzor volcanic chain show no evidence of garnet fractionation in their trace element patterns. This volcanic chain is located in the active volcanic arc, between 22°00^′S and 22°30^′S, over a continental crust ∼70 km thick. Sampled lavas show Sr/Y and Sm/Yb ratios <40 and <4.0, respectively, which is significantly lower than for most other lavas of recent volcanoes in the Central Andes. In addition, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios from San Pedro–Linzor lava flows vary between 0.7063 and 0.7094. This is at the upper range, and even higher than those observed at other recent Central Andean volcanic rocks (<0.708). The area in which the San Pedro–Linzor volcanic chain is located is constituted by a felsic, Proterozoic upper crust, and a thin mafic lower crustal section (<25 km). Also, the NW–SE orientation of the volcanic chain is distinctive with respect to the N–S orientation of Central Andean volcanic front in northern Chile. We relate our geochemical observations to shallow crustal evolution of primitive magmas involving a high degree of assimilation of upper continental crust. We emphasize that low pressure AFC- (Assimilation Fractional Crystallization) type evolution of the San Pedro–Linzor volcanic chain reflects storage, fractionation, and contamination of mantle-derived magmas at the upper felsic crust (<40 km depth). The ascent of mantle-derived magmas to mid-crustal levels is related with the extensional regime that has existed in this zone of arc-front offset since Late-Miocene age, and the relatively thin portion of mafic lower crust observed below the volcanic chain.  相似文献   

动机、成本、风险：家长视角下研学旅游产品价值感知研究     

文彤  李思敏  苏海洋  肖凯杰 《热带地理》2022,42(10):1677-1689

以中小学生自然教育研学旅游作为具体情境,基于539份家长问卷数据阐释研学旅游动机与价值感知之间的关系,并通过成本感知和风险感知探讨其内在机制和边界条件。结果表明,家长感知的研学旅游动机越强烈,越容易感知到研学旅游产品所传递的价值,验证了研学旅游情境下动机对价值感知的积极影响,也形成了对动机与价值之间关系研究的理论补充。并且,这一动机除了直接作用于价值感知外,还会通过成本感知的部分中介作用影响价值感知,揭示了中国家长对于教育价值的重视会削弱其对“利失”的感知。此外,进一步验证了风险感知的积极影响,即家长感知研学旅游的不确定性水平越高,动机对价值感知的积极影响越明显,且会抑制成本感知对价值感知的负向作用,但风险感知水平达到一定高度时,其对成本感知与价值感知间的抑制作用将不显著。因此,面向需求设计打造产品,突出产品价值、加大宣传营销力度、把控活动安全、合理制定价格,获取家长群体的认同接受,将是研学旅游进一步拓展市场的重要考量。  相似文献   

基于弱势人群个体可达性评价的社区服务设施配置研究     

钟家晖  易芳蓉  何正国  程国荣  黄铎 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(5):875-887

当前我国人口形势面临老龄化与少子化风险,抓好“一老一小”、确保老有所养和幼有所育成为我国城乡发展中特别关注的方面。在这一背景下,如何营造有利于养老和生育的社会环境,如何针对老年人、育龄妇女和儿童等弱势人群提供更为合理的设施配置成为民生工程的重要内容。社区服务设施作为城市公共服务的空间载体,其配置模式的完善与提升是落实以人为本、集中体现社会公平的重要路径。当前,从网络地图规划路径API获取的出行时间成本矩阵能够为可达性研究提供接近真实的出行时间数据,此外个体化的人口数据如实有人口数据能够以其丰富的属性信息为识别各类弱势人群提供依据,同时精确刻画人口的空间分布。本文基于弱势人群的需求特征与相关规范,对老年人、育龄妇女和儿童三类弱势人群提出了明确定义,并构建了面向各类弱势人群个体使用需求的社区服务设施供给标准。在此基础上,利用实有人口数据、网络地图出行时间成本矩阵和POI数据,综合考虑社区服务设施的服务容量,提出了基于弱势人群个体可达性评价的社区服务设施供给评价与布局优化方法,并以广州市人民南社区为例进行了应用实践。研究表明,人民南社区的弱势人群服务设施供给存在不足,优化配置后设施的供需情况更加合理,服务人口覆盖率亦明显提升。本文提出的方法能够从独立个体尺度精确评价社区弱势人群服务设施的布局合理性,在拓展数据类型及应用方法方面为当前人口形势下精细化研究服务设施的空间分布和供需问题提供新的思路。  相似文献   

从处理平顶山市矿业纠纷中引出的几点思考     

谢怀阳 《河南国土资源》1999,(2)

作者通过对本部门、本系统所处理的大量的矿业纠纷进行调查、了解和分析，提出了矿业纠纷问题是矛盾激化了的矿业秩序问题，是明显而复杂的社会问题，进而揭示了造成矿业秩序混乱，矿业纠纷难于解决的社会深层次的问题，同时对如何贯彻实施《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》提出了建议，最后提出了实现矿业秩序根本好转的四个前提条件。  相似文献   

1994年江淮地区首次区域性春季暴雨诊断分析     

王亦平  徐良谋  王肖成 《成都信息工程学院学报》1996,(4)

分析了１９９４年４月１９～２０日春季暴雨主要是由对流层中低层低涡和地面静止锋共同作用的结果，侧重于对低空急流的形成与变动和熵平衡方程的诊断分析，能量场与该次暴雨有很好的相关性  相似文献   

Hoare分类算法的效率改进研究     

张钟澍 《成都信息工程学院学报》1993,(1)

本文是一篇如何实现改进Hoare分类算法效率的方法研究。文中提出的一个新的快速分类的改进方案优于其它的快速分类算法,其平均分类速度是Hoare原算法的1.6倍左右,额外的内存开销仅为2*[log_2(N/10)]。文中还给出了在IBM-PC/XT微机上对大量随机数排序的实验结果。  相似文献   

Towards More Snow Days in Summer since 2001 at the Great Wall Station,Antarctic Peninsula:The Role of the Amundsen Sea Low     

Minghu DING  Wei HAN  Tong ZHANG  Xiaoyuan YUE  Jeremy FYKE  Ge LIU  Cunde XIAO 《大气科学进展》2020,37(5):494-504

The variation in the precipitation phase in polar regions represents an important indicator of climate change and variability.We studied the precipitation phase at the Great Wall Station and Antarctic Peninsula(AP)region,based on daily precipitation,synoptic records and ERA-Interim data during the austral summers of 1985?2014.Overall,there was no trend in the total precipitation amount or days,but the phase of summer precipitation(rainfall days versus snowfall days)showed opposite trends before and after 2001 at the AP.The total summer rain days/snow days increased/decreased during 1985?2001 and significantly decreased at a rate of?14.13 d(10 yr)?1/increased at a rate of 14.31 d(10 yr)?1 during 2001?2014,agreeing well with corresponding variations in the surface air temperature.Further,we found that the longitudinal location of the Amundsen Sea low(ASL)should account for the change in the precipitation phase since 2001,as it has shown a westward drift after 2001[?41.1°(10 yr)?1],leading to stronger cold southerly winds,colder water vapor flux,and more snow over the AP region during summertime.This study points out a supplementary factor for the climate variation on the AP.  相似文献   

城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究     

刘俊伶  王克  夏侯沁蕊  刘芳名  邹骥  孔英 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(3):355-366

在中国经济步入新常态之际,为了研究城镇化背景下的长期碳排放趋势,构建了人口变动与能源系统互动的综合分析框架与社会经济-能源系统模型。结果显示,从2014年至2050年,预计有3亿人口从农村流向城市,并呈现从中小型城市逐步向大型和特大型城市汇集的趋势。人口流动趋势与人民生活质量改善结合,推动中国基础设施建设、工业产品生产和能源服务需求增长。基准情景下,2050年中国一次能源消费总量达到84亿tce,能源相关CO₂排放达到176亿t,比2013年增长83%;而在低碳转型情景下,通过技术创新,2050年中国一次能源消费需求可以控制在61亿tce左右,CO₂排放在2020—2025年间达峰,2050年比基准情景降低78%。低碳转型过程中,非化石能源电力和能效技术的减排潜力最大,工业和电力部门率先在2020年达峰,建筑和交通 ^①（①按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,工业、建筑、交通均属于终端能源消费部门,其中建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗;交通部门能耗指所有交通活动能耗,既包括交通运输业营运类运输工具的交通能耗,也包括私人、公务非营运类运输工具的交通能耗 ^[1]。）将在2030年左右达峰。实现低碳转型所需新增固定投资占GDP的1.5%,不会给国民经济带来重大负担。中国实施新型城镇化战略具有技术和经济可行性。  相似文献