The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

HUAN Sheng-mu  DONG Rei-yin 《四川地震》2014,(1):42-47

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.  相似文献   

应用九层全球大气格点模式进行跨季度短期气候预测系统性试验   总被引：24，自引：3，他引：21       下载免费PDF全文

郎咸梅  王会军  姜大膀 《地球物理学报》2004,47(1):19-24

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所9层大气环流模式（IAP9L AGCM）对夏季气候进行了30年（ 1970～1999年）集合回报试验,并采用统计学分析方法对跨季度夏季短期气候的可预测性问 题进行了初步探讨. 结果表明,该模式对对流层中、高层大气环流的预测能力强于低层,位 势高度场和表面气温的可预测性最大,而降水的可预测性则相对较小. 对流层中、高层位势 高度场的可预测性基本呈带状分布,越靠近赤道可预测性越高;而降水的可预测性基本局限 于赤道东太平洋及热带个别区域. 由此可见,降水的预测极为困难和复杂,订正系 统的研究和寻找新的预报物理因子非常重要.   相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地上三叠统延长组长9油层组沉积相及其演化^*   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

付金华  李士祥  刘显阳  邓秀芹 《古地理学报》2012,14(3):269-284

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长9油层组发育三角洲—湖泊沉积相,三角洲平原分流河道砂体和三角洲前缘水下分流河道砂体是最有利的储集砂体。在沉积相研究的基础上,根据单因素分析多因素综合作图法,选取了地层厚度、较深水沉积岩含量、砂岩厚度、砂地比、自生绿泥石分布、古生物化石分布和沉积构造分布等单因素,对鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长9油层组上下2段的沉积相平面展布特征进行了深入研究,并探讨了其演化规律。研究表明,鄂尔多斯盆地以发育多水系、多物源注入的环湖分布的多个三角洲为特色,东北部地区主要发育曲流河三角洲,西部发育辫状河三角洲,其中以三角洲平原分流河道和三角洲前缘水下分流河道微相较为发育。长9₂沉积期,半深湖沉积在盆地内较为局限,长9₁沉积期湖盆初始扩张达到最大范围,湖岸线向陆推移,湖域面积扩大,半深湖沉积较发育。由长9₂沉积期到长9₁沉积期,鄂尔多斯盆地沉积水体经历了由浅变深的过程,由此在长9₂的顶部沉积了一套具有生烃潜力的油页岩。  相似文献   

Meteorological causes of Harmattan dust in West Africa     

Wolfgang Schwanghart  Brigitta Schütt 《Geomorphology》2008,95(3-4):412-428

We investigated the temporal dynamics of dust entrainment in the Bodélé Depression, Central Sahara, to better understand the intra-annual variability of aerosol emission in the world's largest dust source. The linkages between dust entrainment and large-scale meteorological factors were examined by correlating several meteorological variables in the Mediterranean and Africa north of the equator with the aerosol concentrations in the Bodélé Depression separately for winter and summer. The methodological tools applied are NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the aerosol index of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS-AI), available for 15 years from 1978 to 1993. We found that dust mobilisation during the Harmattan season is highly dependent on air pressure variability in the Mediterranean area. High pressure to the north of the Bodélé intensifies the NE trade winds, leading to an increased entrainment of dust in the Bodélé Depression. In summer, dust mobilization cannot be explained by the large scale meteorological conditions. This highlights the importance of local to regional wind systems linked to the northernmost position of the intertropical convection zone (ITCZ) during this time.  相似文献   

New insights on the origin of troctolites from the breakaway area of the Godzilla Megamullion (Parece Vela back‐arc basin): The role of melt‐mantle interaction on the composition of the lower crust          下载免费PDF全文

Alessio Sanfilippo  Henry J. B. Dick  Yasuhiko Ohara  Massimo Tiepolo 《Island Arc》2016,25(3):220-234

The troctolites and olivine‐gabbros from the Dive 6 K‐1147 represent the most primitive gabbroic rocks collected at the Godzilla Megamullion, a giant oceanic core complex formed at an extinct spreading segment of the Parece Vela back‐arc basin (Philippine Sea). Previous investigations have shown that these rocks have textural and major elements mineral compositions consistent with a formation through multistage interaction between mantle‐derived melts and a pre‐existing ultramafic matrix. New investigations on trace element mineral compositions basically agree with this hypothesis. Clinopyroxenes and plagioclase have incompatible element signatures similar to that of typical‐MORB. However, the clinopyroxenes show very high Cr contents (similar to those of mantle clinopyroxene) and rim having sharply higher Zr/REE ratios with respect to the core. These features are in contrast with an evolution constrained by fractional crystallization processes, and suggest that the clinopyroxene compositions are controlled by melt‐rock interaction processes. The plagioclase anorthite versus clinopyroxene Mg#[Mg/(Mg + Fe^Tot)] correlation of the Dive 6 K‐1147 rocks shows a trend much steeper than those depicted by other oceanic gabbroic sections. Using a thermodynamic model, we show that this trend is reproducible by fractionation of melts assimilating 1 g of mantle peridotite per 1 °C of cooling. This model predicts the early crystallization of high Mg# clinopyroxene, consistent with our petrological observation. The melt‐peridotite interaction process produces Na‐rich melts causing the crystallization of plagioclase with low anorthite component, typically characterizing the evolved gabbros from Godzilla Megamullion.  相似文献   

Silicate‐oxide mineral chemistry of mafic–ultramafic rocks as an indicator of the roots of an island arc: The Chilas Complex,Kohistan (Pakistan)          下载免费PDF全文

Rubina Bilqees  M. Qasim Jan  M. Asif Khan  Brian F. Windley 《Island Arc》2016,25(1):4-27

The Chilas Complex is a major lower crustal component of the Cretaceous Kohistan island arc and one of the largest exposed slices of arc magma chamber in the world. Covering more than 8000 km², it reaches a current tectonic width of around 40 km. It was emplaced at 85 Ma during rifting of the arc soon after the collision of the arc with the Karakoram plate. Over 85% of the Complex comprises homogeneous, olivine‐free gabbronorite and subordinate orthopyroxene–quartz diorite association (MGNA), which contains bodies of up to 30 km² of ultramafic–mafic–anorthositic association (UMAA) rocks. Primary cumulate textures, igneous layering, and sedimentary structures are well preserved in layered parts of the UMAA in spite of pervasive granulite facies metamorphism. Mineral analyses show that the UMAA is characterized by more magnesian and more aluminous pyroxene and more calcic plagioclase than those in the MGNA. High modal abundances of orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (in MGNA), general Mg–Fe–Al spatial variations, and an MFA plot of whole‐rock analyses suggest a calc‐alkaline origin for the Complex. Projection of the pyroxene compositions on the Wo–En–Fs face is akin to those of pyroxenes from island arcs gabbros. The presence of highly calcic plagioclase and hornblende in UMAA is indicative of hydrous parental arc magma. The complex may be a product of two‐stage partial melting of a rising mantle diaper. The MGNA rocks represent the earlier phase melting, whereas the UMAA magma resulted from the melting of the same source depleted by the extraction of the earlier melt phase. Some of the massive peridotites in the UMAA may either be cumulates or represent metasomatized and remobilized upper mantle. The Chilas Complex shows similarities with many other (supra)subduction‐related mafic–ultramafic complexes worldwide.  相似文献   

The Godzilla Megamullion,the largest oceanic core complex on the earth: a historical review   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Yasuhiko Ohara 《Island Arc》2016,25(3):193-208

The Godzilla Megamullion is the largest known oceanic core complex (OCC) on the Earth, located in the Parece Vela Basin in the Philippine Sea. In this article, the history of Godzilla Megamullion study is reviewed for the first time, dividing it into three major phases: (i) the early studies done before Japan's extended continental shelf survey program; (ii) the studies during Japan's extended continental shelf survey program that discovered the OCC; and (iii) the studies by the post‐discovery cruises. The early studies included an interpretation of US nautical chart of the southwestern Pacific and the site surveys for Deep Sea Drilling Project cruises (DSDP Legs 6, 31 and 59). The early studies recognized the presence of the Parece Vela Rift, the extinct spreading axis of the Parece Vela Basin, and established the currently accepted model that the Philippine Sea evolved with eastward progression of backarc spreading and arc migration. The modern understanding of the Parece Vela Basin comes from Japan's extended continental shelf survey program. The program revealed the ultramafic petrology as well as a two‐stage evolution model of the basin. Following these results, the discovery of the Godzilla Megamullion was made in 2001. The studies by the post‐discovery cruises further revealed important characteristics of the OCC, such as the presence of abundant plagioclase‐bearing peridotite and the systematic temporal changes in both deformation microstructures and composition of plagioclase and amphibole in gabbroic mylonites and ultramylonites. Zircon U–Pb ages of gabboric and leucocratic rocks indicate that the terminal phase of Parece Vela Basin spreading was with a significant decline in spreading rate and asymmetry accompanying formation of the Godzilla Megamullion. The estimated denudation rate of the OCC was approximately 2.5 cm/yr; significantly slower than the previous estimate based on poorly constrained magnetic data.  相似文献   

Genetic algorithm for fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to 3D orientations: a tool for the statistical and paleostress analyses of fracture orientations          下载免费PDF全文

Atsushi Yamaji 《Island Arc》2016,25(1):72-83

The clustering of fracture orientations is important for tectonic studies and for geotechnical engineering. In this study, a real‐coded genetic algorithm was adopted to fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to orientation data by maximizing the log‐likelihood function of the distribution. The maximization is a difficult problem, because the function has multimodality and singularity. It was found that the algorithm was effective for this problem. Given the orientations of dilational fractures, the present method determines not only the stress axes and stress ratio of each of the fracture groups but also the maximum non‐dimensionalized fluid pressure at the time of their formation. In addition, the software calculates the 95 % error ellipses of the concentration axes. The present method found that the orientations of ore veins of the Akenobe Mine, SW Japan, should be partitioned into three clusters. It is shown that two of the groups had distinctive Zn and Sn contents, and that the ore fluids had overpressures only slightly greater than the minimum principal stress at the time of the deposition of Zn‐ and Sn‐rich veins.  相似文献   

A new Lower Triassic (Induan) Jerus Limestone locality in northwest Pahang,Peninsular Malaysia: Conodont fauna,depositional and tectonic settings          下载免费PDF全文

Ian Metcalfe 《Island Arc》2016,25(2):126-136

Limestones exposed north of Raub, Pahang, Malaysia, and sandwiched between the Bentong‐Raub Suture Zone and the westernmost margin of the Sukhothai Arc terrane, yield a late Dienerian (late Induan) conodont fauna. The co‐occurrence of Neospathodus dieneri Sweet (morphotypes 1, 2 and 3) and Neospathodus pakistanensis Sweet represents the Neospathodus dieneri morphotype 3 sub‐zone of the Neospathodus dieneri Zone. The sampled limestones are interpreted as the northwards extension of the Jerus Limestone which crops out near Cheroh and Jerus villages, significantly extending the known outcrop of the Jerus Limestone northwards. The Jerus Limestone is interpreted as hemipelagic and formed in a foredeep or forearc setting on top of the accretionary complex formed by eastwards subduction of the Palaeo‐Tethys during the Lower to Middle Triassic.  相似文献   

Isolated Archosaur teeth from the green sandstone capping the Coralline Limestone (Bagh Group) of the Narmada valley: Evidence for the presence of pre‐Late to Late Maastrichtian abelisaurids in India          下载免费PDF全文

Guntupalli V.R. Prasad  Vishal Verma  Pooja Grover  Rajkumari Priyadarshini  Ashok Sahni  Ranjit S. Lourembam 《Island Arc》2016,25(6):410-420

Recent field prospecting in the Cretaceous sequences of the lower Narmada valley has led to the discovery of three isolated archosaur teeth from the upper part of marine Cretaceous rocks of the Bagh Group. The specimens were recovered by surface prospecting from an oyster‐bearing green sandstone bed occurring at the top of the Coralline Limestone (Coniacian) from a site near Phutibawri village, Dhar District, Madhya Pradesh, India. Of the three teeth recovered from this horizon, two are identified with abelisaurid dinosaurs and the third one with an indeterminate crocodile. The abelisaurid teeth conform to the premaxillary and maxillary tooth morphology of Majungasaurus and Indosuchus. Earlier reports of abelisaurid dinosaurs from India are from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) Lameta Group of Jabalpur, Pisdura (Central India) and Balasinor (Western India) and Upper Cretaceous (Late Maastrichtian) Kallamedu Formation (South India). As no associated age diagnostic fossils are found, the specimens described here are considered to represent pre‐Late to Late Maastrichtian age based on the known ages of the underlying and overlying formations. The new finds, therefore, document stratigraphically the oldest occurrence of abelisaurid dinosaurs known from the Indian subcontinent.  相似文献