非等间距GM(1,1)模型的总体最小二乘算法及其病态问题     

陶武勇  花向红  鲁铁定  陈西江  张伟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(1):45-50

在非等间距GM(1,1)模型中，系数矩阵中有无误差的常数项和有误差的随机项，并且系数矩阵与观测向量误差同源，即系数矩阵与观测向量中有相同的元素存在，这些相同元素应该有相同的改正数，为此本文推导了一种适合非等间距GM(1,1)模型求解的总体最小二乘算法。同时，考虑到非等间距GM(1,1)模型中存在病态问题时影响总体最小二乘计算结果的稳定性，提出对系数矩阵常数列乘以某一常数的方法，以改善病态问题。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯地块周缘垂直形变场负位错反演与应变积累研究     

张希  刘立炜  郝明  白卓立 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(6):551-556

利用鄂尔多斯地块及其周缘1970～2014年的垂直形变速率场资料，借助负位错反演研究该区域长期应变积累。结果表明，地块东北缘山西断陷带中北段年均能量积累增量、剪应力强度都较高，西南缘六盘山断裂与渭河断裂西段次之；山西断陷带中南段至晋陕交界处年均剪应力强度较高且显示一定程度的能量积累；西秦岭构造区尤其西秦岭北缘断裂西段、晋冀蒙交界区也反映一定程度的能量积累特性。  相似文献   

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Chuan‐An Xia  Juxiu Tong  Bill X. Hu  Xiujie Wu  Alberto Guadagnini 《水文研究》2018,32(20):3140-3157

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.  相似文献   

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses          下载免费PDF全文

J.C. Li  N.N. Li  S.B. Chai  H.B. Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(1):95-109

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.  相似文献   

Geography Deserts: State and Regional Variation in the Formal Opportunity to Learn Geography in the United States, 2005–2015     

Mark C. Jones  Marcos Luna 《The Journal of geography》2019,118(2):88-100

The formal opportunity to learn geography in the United States is unevenly distributed across space, creating possible geography deserts. Data on the number of exams taken in Advanced Placement Human Geography (APHG) and bachelor’s degrees earned in geography are mapped at the state and regional scales. Normalized rates are ranked and grouped into quintiles. For APHG exams, states in the southeastern region of the United States are in the uppermost quintiles while states in the northeastern region are in the lowermost quintiles. The pattern for bachelor’s degrees in geography is somewhat the spatial inverse of that for APHG.  相似文献   

基于F-范数的不确定性平差模型的解算方法     

鲁铁定  朱国红 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(6):557-561

为提高基于F-范数的不确定性平差模型的解算效率，给出直接迭代算法进行参数估计。该算法无需SVD，解算过程简单且易于编程计算，同时给出迭代不收敛时的SVD-解方程算法。二元线性拟合及沉降观测AR模型的算例结果表明，这2种算法正确可行，与SVD-迭代算法具有等价性。当迭代收敛时，宜使用直接迭代算法，收敛速度更快，解算效率更高；当迭代不收敛时，可釆用SVD-解方程算法。  相似文献   

Study of irregular wave run-up over fringing reefs based on a shock-capturing Boussinesq model     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

This paper presents the results of a parametric study of irregular wave run-up over fringing reefs using the shock-capturing Boussinesq wave model Funwave-TVD to better understand the role of fringing reefs in the mitigation of wave-driven flooding. Laboratory experiments were newly performed with a typical fringing reef profile and typical hydrodynamic conditions to validate the model. Experimental data shows irregular wave run-ups are dominated by the low-frequency motions and confirms the run-up resonant phenomenon over the back-reef slope, which has been revealed in previous numerical studies. It is demonstrated that irregular wave evolution and run-up over fringing reefs are reasonably reproduced by the present model with a proper grid size. However, the infragravity run-up height and highest 2% run-up height over the back-reef slope are under-predicted due to the underestimation of the infragravity wave height over the reef flat. The validated model was then utilized to model irregular wave transformations and run-ups under different conditions. Through a series of numerical experiments, the effects of key hydrodynamic and reef geometry parameters, including the reef flat width, water depth over the reef flat, fore-reef slope angle and back-reef slope angle, on the irregular wave run-up were investigated. Variations of spectral components of irregular wave run-ups were examined to better understand the physical process underlying the effect of each parameter.  相似文献   

海岸破波带内悬沙空间分布试验研究和解析表达式     

张洋  邹志利  孙大鹏  薛武山 《海洋工程》2018,36(1):28-46

关于海岸破波带内悬沙浓度水平和垂向分布的研究对于计算海岸输沙率和地形演变具有重要意义。本研究进行了规则波、波群和不规则波三种波浪情况破波带内悬沙浓度的水平和垂向分布的试验测量。试验在大尺度波浪水槽进行,接近实际海岸波况尺度。给出了破波带内多断面悬沙垂向分布的细致测量结果,并以此为基础给出了预报实际海岸破波带内悬沙浓度水平和垂向分布解析表达式,讨论了形成这些分布的物理原因和不同波况、不同破波带区域对分布的影响。  相似文献   

Lidar-aided analysis of boreal forest backscatter at Ku band     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

This paper analyzes the backscatter of the microwave signal in a boreal forest environment based on a Ku -band airborne Frequency-Modulated Continuous Waveform (FMCW) profiling radar—Tomoradar. We selected a half-managed boreal forest in the southern part of Finland for a field test. By decomposing the waveform collected by the Tomoradar, the vertical canopy structure was achieved. Based on the amplitude of the waveform, the Backscattered Energy Ratio of Canopy-to-Total (BERCT) was calculated. Meanwhile, the canopy fraction was derived from the corresponding point cloud recorded by a Velodyne VLP-16 LiDAR mounted on the same platform. Lidar-derived canopy fraction was obtained by counting the number of the first/ the strongest returns versus the total amount of returns. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of radar-derived BERCT on lidar-derived canopy fraction and canopy height are investigated. A fitted model is derived to describe the Ku-band microwave backscatter in the boreal forest to numerically analyze the proportion contributed by four factors: lidar-derived canopy fraction, radar-derived canopy height, the radar-derived distance between trees and radar sensor and other factors, from co-polarization Tomoradar measurements. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the proposed model was 0.0958, and the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.912. The fitted model reveals that the correlation coefficient between radar-derived BERCT and lidar-derived canopy fraction is 0.84, which illustrates that lidar surface reflection explains the majority of the profiling /waveform radar response. Thus, vertical canopy structure derived from lidar can be used for the benefit of radar analysis.  相似文献