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71.
本文采用阿勒泰地区7个国家级气象站近54a(1960~2013年)夏季(6~8月)的日有效降水量(20~20h降水量≥0.1mm)资料,用WMO推荐的百分位法计算了全地区过去54a夏季极端强降水的阈值、进一步分析了当地夏季时空分布特征及变化趋势,结果表明:阿勒泰地区夏季极端强降水阈值呈西部、南部小,北部、东部大,并且空间异常分布特征如下: 夏季以及夏季各月的极端强降水日数和强度均可总结出5种最主要模型;极端强降水量可总结出8种最主要模型;并且通过时间标准化序列分析各种模型都有对应的降水日数、量级、强度明显偏多(强)和偏少(弱)的时段。日数、量级、强度近54a来,除吉木乃略有下降以外,其余各县(市)均为增长趋势,尤其是北部、东部地区.同时上述三指标存在着显著的年代际和年纪尺度的周期变化,上世纪90年代和2010年至今为三个指标最多(强)的年代,而上世纪70年代为最少(最差)的年代.并通过周期分析(小波分析)可知,均有对应的显著变化周期。  相似文献   
72.
通过1999年和2010年夏季同期7月在白令海(169°E~166°W,50°N~67°N)获取的94份浮游植物样品分析,获得了近十年的始末两个时间节点的浮游植物群落结构与时空变化,探讨了浮游植物群落动态及其与环境因素的关联。研究结果显示,共鉴定浮游植物(>10μm)5门58属153种,分为3个生态类群。硅藻是浮游植物的主体,种类多丰度高,占总种类数目的66.7%,占总丰度的95.2%。鉴于样品属性和空间范围的不同,物种组成有细微差别,丰度有较大差异且空间分布明显不同,高丰度区受控于上层营养盐供给和表层环流系统。优势种从北方温带大洋性硅藻演变为广温广盐性与冷水性硅藻,1999年以西氏新细齿状藻为第一优势种,柔弱伪菱形藻次之;2010年以丹麦细柱藻为第一优势种,冷水性的诺登海链藻次之并在陆架和陆坡占优。浮游植物群落结构较为稳定,由深水群落和浅水群落组成。深水群落分布于太平洋西北部和白令海盆,种类组成以温带大洋性的西氏新细齿状藻、长海毛藻、大西洋角毛藻和广布性的菱形海线藻、扁面角毛藻、笔尖根管藻为主,丰度低,种间丰度分配均匀,优势种多元化,物种多样性高;浅水群落分布于白令海陆坡和陆架,主要由冷水性的诺登海链藻、叉尖角毛藻、聚生角毛藻和广布性的丹麦细柱藻、旋链角毛藻组成,丰度高,种间丰度分配不均匀,优势种突出,物种多样性低。白令海夏季浮游植物种类组成及丰度变化直接受控于表层环流、营养盐、春季冰缘线等环境因素。  相似文献   
73.
了解海滩剖面变化可以更好地理解海滩动态过程。利用2007年5月~2014年12月近8 a青岛石老人海滩剖面的实测资料,计算剖面各段单宽体积变化量及后滨宽度,结合交叉小波和小波相干分析方法,探讨海滩剖面中长期淤蚀变化特征及其控制因素。结果表明,近8 a来海滩剖面表现为侵蚀状态,不同岸段侵蚀程度不同。剖面1岸段侵蚀明显,剖面2和剖面3岸段轻微侵蚀。剖面的变化过程可划分为平稳期、剧变期和微调期3个时期。各时期剖面的季节性变化较复杂,平稳期具冬蚀夏淤的交替变化特征,整体淤蚀量较小;剧变期剖面呈阶段性蚀退,变化幅度相对较大,微调期剖面可能仍处于剧变期的恢复阶段,季节性变化不明显。剧变期和微调期的小波交叉谱和相干谱分析显示,波浪和前滨单宽体积相干性较好,尤其当大于2 m的波高达到10%以上,海滩地形可以和波高变化产生同周期的变化。因此波高变化基本控制了剖面的季节变化。而海滩长周期变化主要受控于风暴潮作用及其漫长的恢复期,沿岸输沙和海平面变化则一定程度上导致了剖面长期侵蚀格局的形成。  相似文献   
74.
Deccan volcanic sequences( DVS) in the central Deccan volcanic province( CDVP) are designated as Sahyadri Group having ~ 500 m thick lava pile associated with multiple sedimentary beds at different stratigraphic levels. In the eastern part of CDVP between the latitude 19 °55 '--20 °25 ' N and the longitudes 78 °15 '--78 °30 ' E,palynological investigation of the intertrappean sedimentary beds at five stratigraphic levels was carried out. The study was basically aimed for tracking the floral and environmental changes across the Deccan transition. The resulting finds indicate that the intertrappean sediments at the lowest stratigraphic level between the earliest lava flows are characterized by presence of marker Maastrichtian palynomorphs- Gabonisporis vigourouxii,Aquilapollenites bengalensis,Azolla cretacea and Farabeipollis associated with triporate and tricolpate pollen grains,phytoliths of Oryzeae of Poaceae family and peridinoid dinoflagellate cysts. The increasing volcanism deteriorated the existing flora as evident by absence of pollen-spores and presence of only structured biodegraded organic matter,fungal spores,acritarchs and algal( Botryococcus) remains in the sediments of higher-up in the sequence. For chronostratigraphic constraints on the lava flows magnetic polarity of the flows bracketing the intertrappean beds was investigated. The results indicated presence of N-R-N-R magnetic polarity in the basal lava pile that are interpreted as representing the magnetochron C30 N to C28 R( Maastrichtian-Paleogene). The floral change begins with the onset of volcanism in the chron C30 N and floral deterioration is observed in C29 N with increasing volcanism and it is only in the chron C28 R( Danian) that some evidence of recovery of flora is recorded. The current study shows that in eastern part of CDVP the post Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary eruptions represent the main phase of eruptions that triggered deterioration of the flora.  相似文献   
75.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(4):141-153
This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.  相似文献   
76.
China has experienced unprecedented urbanization in the past decades, resulting in dramatic changes in the physical, limnological, and hydrological characteristics of lakes in urban landscapes. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics in distribution and abundance of urban lakes in China remain poorly understood. Here, we characterized the spatiotemporal change patterns of urban lakes in China’s major cities between 1990 and 2015 using remote-sensing data and landscape metrics. The results showed that the urban lake landscape patterns have experienced drastic changes over the past 25 years. The total surface area of the urban lakes has decreased by 17,620.02?ha, a decrease of 24.22%, with a significant increase in the landscape fragmentation and a reduction in shape complexity. We defined three lake-shrinkage types and found that vanishment was the most common lake-shrinkage pattern, followed by edge-shrinkage and tunneling in terms of lake area. Moreover, we also found that urban sprawl was the dominant driver of the lake shrinkage, accounting for 67.89% of the total area loss, and the transition from lakes to cropland was also an important factor (19.86%). This study has potential for providing critical baseline information for government decision-making in lake resources management and urban landscape design.  相似文献   
77.
Relative sea-level (RSL) evolution during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 in the Mediterranean basin is still not fully understood despite a plethora of morphological, stratigraphic and geochronological studies carried out on highstand deposits of this area. In this review we assembled a database of 323 U/Th-dated samples (e.g. corals, molluscs, speleothems) which were used to chronologically constrain RSL evolution within MIS 5. The application of strict geochemical criteria to the U/Th samples indicates that only ~33% of data available for the Mediterranean Sea can be considered ‘reliable’. Most of these data (~65%) refer to the MIS 5e highstand, while only ~17% could be related to the MIS 5a. No attribution to MIS 5c can be unequivocally supported. Nevertheless, the resulting framework does not allow us to define a satisfactory RSL trend during the MIS 5e highstand and subsequent MIS 5 substages. Overall, the proposed selection of reliable/unreliable data would be useful for detecting areas where MIS 5 substage attributions are not supported by confident U/Th chronological data and thus the related reconstructions need to be revised. In this regard, the resulting framework calls for a reappraisal and re-examination of the Mediterranean records with advanced geochronological methodologies.  相似文献   
78.
详细介绍了8 Ma以来全球气候变化的规律,研究表明地球上主要发生过3次冷气候事件:第一次冷气候事件大约发生在距今7 Ma,一股强烈的干冷气流刮过欧洲大陆,穿越赤道地区直达非洲大陆,使得原始森林开始萎缩,面积的缩小导致古猿与人类发生演化分异;第二次冷气候事件大约发生在距今4.2 Ma,那时干冷气候持续发展,非洲大陆的原始森林进一步萎缩,并逐渐演化为稀树草原,出现了南方猿人和傍人;第三次冷气候事件大约发生在距今2.3 Ma,全球气候变化波动较大,冷-暖气候交替发育,地球上出现了真正意义上的人(人属),并逐渐演化成现代人。根据目前的研究,人类的起源和演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化密切相关,人类演化历史大致可分为7个时期:撒海尔猿人—原初猿人时期、地居猿人时期、南方猿人—傍人时期、能人—鲁道夫人时期、匠人—直立人时期、先驱人—海德堡人时期和智人时期。  相似文献   
79.
利用1979—2016年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF) ERA-Interim (1°×1°)再分析资料中的经、纬向水汽通量和大气可降水量(precipitation water vapor,PWV)数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析法、累积距平、IDW等方法,分析三江源地区PWV与水汽通量的时空分布特征、降水转化率(precipitati-on conversion efficiency,PCE)变化规律。结果表明:过去的38 a,经、纬向多年平均水汽通量分别为50. 2、196. 7 kg·m-1·s^(-1),纬向水汽通量气候倾向率比经向大。南边界为纬向主要水汽输入边界,东边界为经向主要水汽输出边界,纬向水汽输送大于经向输送。多年平均PWV为1998. 3 mm,近38 aPWV呈现微弱增加趋势,1979—1997年,PWV呈下降趋势,1998年后PWV呈增加趋势,同期降水也在增加,说明该时段三江源地区气候转湿。PWV与水汽通量的年际变化趋势和转折年相一致。三江源区多年平均PCE为24. 57%,1989年PCE最高,达32. 76%,各季节平均PCE空间分布与年平均PCE分布一致,均表现出南部、东南部高,西部、东北部低的变化特征,各季节PCE大小差异明显,春季多年平均PCE为15. 92%,夏季25. 67%,秋季21. 01%,冬季仅7. 03%。  相似文献   
80.
B. W. Webb 《水文研究》1996,10(2):205-226
Information on past and likely future trends in water temperature from different parts of the world is collated. The potential causes of trends in the thermal regimes of streams and rivers are many, but the existing database of water temperature information is inadequate to provide a global perspective on changes during the recent, let alone the more remote, past. Data from Europe suggest that warming of up to ca. 1°C in mean river temperatures has occurred during the 20th century, but that this trend has not been continuous, is distorted by extreme hydrological events, is not correlated with simple hydrometeorological factors and has been influenced by a variety of human activities. Predictive studies indicate that an accelerated rise in stream and river temperatures will occur during the next century as a consequence of global warming. However, forecasts must be tentative because future climatic conditions are uncertain and interactions between climate, hydrological and vegetation changes are complex.  相似文献   
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