Late Pleistocene–Holocene seismic stratigraphy of Nha Trang shelf,central Vietnam     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

The late Pleistocene–Holocene stratigraphic architecture on the steep and narrow shelf off Nha Trang, central Vietnam has been explored by high resolution seismic profiles integrated with sediment core data. Sequence stratigraphic results reveal five major seismic units and three bounding surfaces which are composed of two distinctive sequences. Those sequences are bounded by two regional unconformities (SB1, SB2) which have been formed in respond to different sea-level regimes. The revealed relict beach–ridge deposits at water depth of about ∼130 m below the present water depth indicate that the Last Glacial Lowstand (LGM) sea-level in this area was lower than in neighboring areas and it probably resulted from subsidence due to high sedimentation rate and/or neotectonic movements of the East Vietnam Fault System. The late Pleistocene high amplitude of sea-level change during a long fourth-order and superimposed by shorter fifth-order cycle is the principal factor in reorganizing the formation of the Nha Trang continental shelf sequence. Other local controlling factors as fluctuations in sediment supply, morphological variations of the LGM surface, subsidence rate and hydrodynamic conditions provided the distinctive features of the Nha Trang shelf sequence stratigraphic model in comparison with neighboring other areas.  相似文献   

基于PSR 模型的厦门湾中华白海豚资源评价     

肖理  胡文佳  杨圣云  李雯  谢雯瑜  杨璐  陈明茹 《海洋科学》2014,38(1):57-64

中华白海豚(Sousa chinensis Osbeck,1765)为国家Ⅰ级重点野生保护动物,厦门湾作为其在中国的主要分布区之一,自20世纪80年代以来,海岸带开发活动和环境污染程度均不断加大,导致此海域中华白海豚的生存环境不断恶化,种群数量日趋减少,资源状况面临严重威胁。作者采用PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型框架,对厦门湾中华白海豚资源面临的主要环境压力、当前的资源状态以及采取的保护响应措施进行了一个较全面的评价,评价结果认为:围填海工程、船只交通、水下爆破作业和陆源排污等人类活动给厦门湾中华白海豚带来了生境缩小、身体伤害、环境污染和饵料短缺等严重影响,厦门市已采取的保护政策响应包括就地保护、迁地保护和公共管理等方面,目前种群资源数量稳定在80头左右并有潜力扩大。基于评价结果,作者提出了加强保护的建议和策略,可为厦门以外海区的中华白海豚保护工作提供参考。  相似文献   

基于LAGFD-WAM海浪数值模式的海南万宁近海波浪能资源评估     

李泽文  周强  杨永增 《海洋预报》2014,31(5)

利用1991—2010年的NCEP再分析风场驱动LAGFD-WAM海浪数值模式,通过数值后报方法,对海南万宁近海海域近20年的波浪场进行了逐时数值模拟,数值模拟结果和实测结果对比的一致性良好。在数值后报数据的基础上计算了万宁近海波浪能流密度和能流密度变异系数,并对其年内变化特点、区域分布特征和稳定性进行了分析。万宁近海年均波浪能流密度3—10 k W/m,属于波浪能资源可利用区和较丰富区。年内各月月均能流密度差别较大,12月波浪能资源最好,5月波浪能资源最差。秋季(9—11月)和冬季(12—2月)月均波浪能流密度分别为5—24 k W/m和6—29 k W/m,春季(3—5月)和夏季(6—8月)分别为3—7 k W/m和1—6 k W/m。地形对波浪能量的辐聚作用明显,受岬角、岛屿、海底陡坡等因素影响,大洲岛、白鞍岛周边、大花角附近及白鞍岛以北部分近岸区域形成波浪能富集区。除9月外,年内其他时段能流密度变异系数都在2.8以下,9月能流密度变异系数在3.0—5.9之间。  相似文献   

基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估          下载免费PDF全文

段丽瑶  解以扬  陈靖  赵玉洁  任雨 《应用气象学报》2014,25(3):354-359

基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。  相似文献   

Assessing integration of intensity,polarimetric scattering,interferometric coherence and spatial texture metrics in PALSAR-derived land cover classification     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2014

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an important alternative to optical remote sensing due to its ability to acquire data regardless of weather conditions and day/night cycle. The Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) provided new opportunities for vegetation and land cover mapping. Most previous studies employing PALSAR investigated the use of one or two feature types (e.g. intensity, coherence); however, little effort has been devoted to assessing the simultaneous integration of multiple types of features. In this study, we bridged this gap by evaluating the potential of using numerous metrics expressing four feature types: intensity, polarimetric scattering, interferometric coherence and spatial texture. Our case study was conducted in Central New York State, USA using multitemporal PALSAR imagery from 2010. The land cover classification implemented an ensemble learning algorithm, namely random forest. Accuracies of each classified map produced from different combinations of features were assessed on a pixel-by-pixel basis using validation data obtained from a stratified random sample. Among the different combinations of feature types evaluated, intensity was the most indispensable because intensity was included in all of the highest accuracy scenarios. However, relative to using only intensity metrics, combining all four feature types increased overall accuracy by 7%. Producer’s and user’s accuracies of the four vegetation classes improved considerably for the best performing combination of features when compared to classifications using only a single feature type.  相似文献   

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.  相似文献   

The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.  相似文献   

Weather extremes and street life in India—Implications of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for semi-quantitative impact assessment and ranking of adaptation measures     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments.  相似文献   

层次分析法支持下的道路洪涝灾害风险评价——以武夷山地区为例     

李彦萍  王涛  王玺伟  刘东阁  金钊 《测绘通报》2022,(3):166-170

本文首先采用基于多准则决策的层次分析评价法,根据自然灾害风险理论,将洪涝风险影响因子分为危险性和脆弱性两类,子准则层包括平均降雨量、汇流累积量、坡度、海拔和土地覆盖度、道路级别、地表产流能力7个因子,构建了道路洪涝灾害风险评价模型。然后以福建省武夷山地区为研究区,利用地形数据、气象数据及遥感影像提取土地覆盖类型数据,通过道路洪涝灾害风险评价模型,绘制了道路风险分区图。结果表明,中、高风险积水道路占比较高,主要集中在东部、西部和中南部地区。本文对道路洪涝灾害风险所进行的评价,可服务于洪涝灾害风险预警和应急救援规划。  相似文献   

AHP在地下水防污性能评价中的应用-以江苏浅层孔隙地下水为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄晓燕  李朗  姚炳魁 《地下水》2014,(2):51-53

地下水的防污性能评价是地下水环保工作的基础,其结果能为地下水环境保护、饮水安全保障体系建设等提供科学依据。针对传统DRASTIC评价模型存在的不足,结合江苏省浅层孔隙含水层的水文地质条件。提出基于层次分析法（AHP）的DRAVT防污性能评价模型,利用GIS空间分析功能进行地下水防污性能评价．该模型的评价结果客观科学,能有效的为规划部门及地下水资源管理部门服务。  相似文献