改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其在水资源预测中的利用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

冯江浪 《物探化探计算技术》2010,32(1):109-112

这里首先对灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的算法进行改进,并将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫模型结合。通过对灰色系统预测数据的修正,既发挥了灰色系统预测精确的特点,又利用了马尔科夫模型对预测波动性数据准确的优势,对于在任何时间序列上展开的具有一定波动性的数据进行预测,精度更高。  相似文献   

白洋淀入淀水量变化及影响因素分析   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

杨春霄 《地下水》2010,32(2):110-112

白洋淀入淀水量的多少是其存亡的重要因素。从70年代起,本流域入淀水量急剧减少．白洋淀开始出现干淀现象,到80年代初出现连续干涸达5年之久,使淀区的生态平衡遭到严重破坏。88年重新蓄水后,加强了调水、用水的宏观调控及微观管理,才避免了再次出现连续长年干涸现象。利用双累积曲线法对1960—2008年白洋淀入淀水量及影响因素进行分析,结果表明：白洋淀入淀水量主要受人类活动和天然降水的影响,且人类天然活动的影响程度在加剧;白洋淀自身调蓄能力很差,“引黄济淀”仍是当前保证白洋淀不干的主要途径。  相似文献   

泰安城区供水安全分析     

张春荣  成世才  王其芳 《地下水》2010,32(3):105-107

随着经济的发展和人民生活的改善,城市需水量越来越大,供需矛盾极为突出,供水安全显得十分重要。对泰安城区供水水源状况进行了分析,结果发现研究区现状条件下,丰水年、平水年份供水量基本能够满足需要,但是水质状况不容乐观;枯水年份供水安全则不能保证。为保证枯水年份城市供水安全和研究区将来需水量增加的要求,特提出开源节流、雨洪水利用、分质供水、跨流域调水和供水水质监测等对策。  相似文献   

渭河流域地表水可利用量分析计算     

井涌 《水文》2010,30(1)

地表水可利用量是流域和区域水资源规划的重要指标.本文应用断面过流量减去河道内生态需用水量与河道外难控制利用弃水量,并扣除二者间重复计算量的算法,利用华县、状头两个水文站断面实测和统计数据,分析计算渭河多年平均地表水可利用量为54.91亿～66.33亿m~3/a.  相似文献   

气候变化对海洋鱼类群落结构的影响研究进展     

李淼  许友伟  孙铭帅  张俊  李佳俊  陈作志  张魁 《海洋科学》2022,46(7):120-129

全球气候变化影响着海洋生态系统的多个方面,而鱼类群落结构对气候变化的响应机制是探索海洋生态系统演变规律的关键点之一。本文结合国内外相关研究成果,概述了气候变化引起的温度、盐度、CO₂浓度、海平面高度、溶解氧以及海流等的改变对鱼类群落结构的影响,并以太平洋十年涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)和厄尔尼诺−南方涛动(El Niño Southern Oscillation,ENSO)等典型气候现象为例,探讨了鱼类群落对典型气候现象的响应,讨论了需要解决的重点问题,以期为科学应对气候变化和制定海洋生物多样性保护策略提供依据。  相似文献   

Replacement of Dietary Fish Oil with Vegetable Oils Improves the Growth and Flesh Quality of Large Yellow Croaker （Larmichthys crocea）   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

DUAN Qingyuan  MAI Kangsen  SHENTU Jikang  AI Qinghui  ZHONG Huiying  JIANG Yujian  ZHANG Lu  ZHANG Chunxiao  GUO Sitong 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2014,13(3):445-452

We investigated the effect of the replacement of dietary fish oil with vegetable oils on the growth and flesh quality of large yellow croaker(Larmichthys crocea). The basal diet(FO) was formulated to contain 66.5% fish meal and 6.4% menhaden fish oil; whereas the other 3 experimental diets were formulated by replacing the fish oil with 50% soybean oil(SO50), 100% soybean oil(SO100) and 100% palm oil(PO100), respectively. The 4 diets were randomly assigned to 4 floating sea cages(3.0 m × 3.0 m × 3.0 m), and each was stocked with 250 fish individuals with an initial average weight of 245.29 g ± 7.45 g. The fish were fed to apparent satiation twice a day at 5:00 and 17:00, respectively, for 12 weeks. Experimental analysis showed that the specific growth rate of fish fed SO50 or PO100 were significantly higher than that of fish fed FO or SO100(P0.05), and crude lipid contents of ventral muscle and viscera were significantly lower in fish fed FO than in those fed the other 3 diets(P0.05). No significant differences in condition factor, viscerosomatic index, hepatosomatic index, gutted yield and colorimetric values of fish among the dietary treatments were observed(P0.05). Compared to FO diet, SO50, SO100 and PO100 diets led to substantial decreases in the liquid loss and water loss from fresh fillets(1 d, 4℃)(P0.05). Similarly, thiobarbituric acid reactive substance(TBARS) values of fillets under different storage conditions(1 d, 4℃; 7 d, 4℃; 4 weeks,-20℃; 8 weeks,-20℃) decreased significantly after partial or complete replacement of fish oil with vegetable oils. These findings indicated that the growth performance and selected flesh quality properties(liquid holding capacity and TBARS value) of large yellow croaker were substantially improved by replacing dietary fish oil with vegetable oils.  相似文献   

Hog Daddy and the Walls of Steel: Catch Shares and Ecosystem Change in the New England Groundfishery     

Jennifer F. Brewer 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(7):724-741

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration implemented market-based fishery management in the New England groundfishery as catch shares, controlling aggregate harvests through tradable annual catch quotas allocated to fishing groups called sectors. Policy supporters assert that resulting markets raise conservation incentives. In compliance with the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, species assessments permit catch shares to replace more spatially and temporally specific constraints on fishing gear, time, areas, and daily harvest limits. Qualitative evidence from field interviews and participant observation questions the efficacy of catch shares. Fishing industry members observe that increased presence of large trawl vessels in previously protected areas damages fish subpopulations and benthic habitat. Regulatory bioeconomic models fail to consider these lay observations. The consequent inability of quota markets to recognize the materiality of human–environment relationships at the spatiotemporal scales of fishing activity, and to internalize associated externalities, may have devastating consequences for the fishery.  相似文献   

Zinc and copper bioaccumulation in fish from Laizhou Bay,the Bohai Sea     

刘金虎  曹亮  黄伟  张传涛  窦硕增 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(3):491-502

Abstract Zinc （Zn） and copper （Cu） concentrations were determined in the tissues （muscle, stomach, liver, gills, skin, and gonads） of five commercial fish species （mullet Liza haematocheilus, flathead Platycephalus indicus, mackerel Scomberomorus niphonius, silver pomfret Pampus argenteus, and sea bass Lateolabrax japonicus） from Laizhou Bay in the Bohai Sea. Metal bioaccumulation was highest in the metabolically active tissues of the gonads and liver. Bioconcentration factors for Zn were higher in all tissues （gonads 44.35, stomach 7.73, gills 7.72, liver 5.61, skin 4.88, and muscle 1.63） than the corresponding values for Cu （gonads 3.50, stomach 3.00, gills 1.60, liver 5.43, skin 1.50, and muscle 0.93）. Mackerel tissues accumulated metal to higher concentrations than did other fish species, but bioaccumulation levels were not significantly correlated with the trophic levels of the fish. Zn and Cu concentrations in the tissues were generally negatively correlated with fish length, except for a few tissues of sea bass. Risk assessment based on national and international permissible limits and provisional tolerances for weekly intake of Zn and Cu revealed that the concentrations of these two metals in muscle were relatively low and would not pose hazards to human health.  相似文献   

基于cox1条形码的鱼肚DNA分子鉴定     

朱惠敏  连一阳  王中铎  郭昱嵩  刘楚吾 《广东海洋大学学报》2014,(6):1-5

为鉴定鱼肚的正品来源,运用一对特异性引物扩增并测定10 个不同价格（700～1 500 元/kg）鱼肚样本的线粒体DNA 细胞色素c 氧化酶Ⅰ（cox1）约660 bp 的序列.通过BLASTN 比对DNA 序列同源度,判定鱼肚所属种类分别为鲈形目石首鱼科（Sciaenidae）、马鲅科（Eleutheronema）、笛鲷科（Lutjanidae）、带鱼科（Trichiuridae）.cox1 条码序列获取便捷,基于此条码序列的物种鉴定技术可用于鱼肚种类鉴别.  相似文献   

2种罗非鱼加工下脚料产物替代秘鲁鱼粉养殖奥尼罗非鱼(Oreochromis niloticus×O.aureus)稚鱼效果评价     

彭淇  王斐  吴彬  杨丽萍  张雨晴  冯健 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(3):602-607

采用传统养殖试验方法进行了评价罗非鱼加工下脚料制备的2种产物替代秘鲁鱼粉在奥尼罗非鱼(Oreochromis niloticus×O.aureus)稚鱼实用日粮中的效果研究。实验设计了3种等蛋白质(33.8%)、等能量(16.50MJ/kg)左右的实用实验日粮,对照组与试验组1、2日粮中分别添加秘鲁鱼粉、罗非鱼加工下脚料产物制备的酶解小肽和鱼粉。实验结果表明,实验期间(63d)各实验组鱼均无死亡;添加罗非鱼鱼粉组鱼的特定生长率和饲料效益均显著性低于秘鲁鱼粉组(P0.05),而添加罗非鱼酶解小肽组鱼的特定生长率和饲料效益均高于秘鲁鱼粉组,但2组间无显著性差异(P0.05);实验各组鱼的肝体比和肠脂比,鱼体水分、粗蛋白质、粗脂肪、粗灰分、氨基酸比例与脂肪酸比例均无显著性差异(P0.05)。本实验认为,在奥尼罗非鱼幼鱼罗非鱼实用日粮中罗非鱼酶解小肽可以替代秘鲁鱼粉,但罗非鱼鱼粉养殖效果较秘鲁鱼粉差。  相似文献