Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata     

Tingting Xu  Jay Gao  Giovanni Coco 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1960-1983

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

东南印度洋中脊澳大利亚-南极洲不整合带地区岩浆供应与构造作用沿洋脊的变化     

刘守金  林间  周志远  张帆 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(1):118-129

We analyzed seafloor morphology and geophysical anomalies of the Southeast Indian Ridge(SEIR) to reveal the remarkable changes in magma supply along this intermediate fast-spreading ridge. We found systematic differences of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance(AAD) from adjacent ridge segments with the residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly(RMBA) being more positive, seafloor being deeper, morphology being more chaotic, M factors being smaller at the AAD. These systematic anomalies, as well as the observed Na_(8.0) being greater and Fe_(8.0) being smaller at AAD, suggest relatively starved magma supply and relatively thin crust within the AAD.Comparing to the adjacent ridges segments, the calculated average map-view M factors are relatively small for the AAD, where several Oceanic Core Complexes(OCCs) develop. Close to 30 OCCs were found to be distributed asymmetrically along the SEIR with 60% of OCCs at the northern flank. The OCCs are concentrated mainly in Segments B3 and B4 within the AAD at ～124°–126°E, as well as at the eastern end of Zone C at ～115°E. The relatively small map-view M factors within the AAD indicate stronger tectonism than the adjacent SEIR segments.The interaction between the westward migrating Pacific mantle and the relatively cold mantle beneath the AAD may have caused a reduction in magma supply, leading to the development of abundant OCCs.  相似文献   

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jun Yang  Andong Guo  Yonghua Li  Yuqing Zhang  Xueming Li 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(3):388-405

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.  相似文献   

雄安新区生态系统服务簇权衡与协同   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

申嘉澍  梁泽  刘来保  李德龙  张亚彤  李双成 《地理研究》2020,39(1):79-91

河北雄安新区建设是千年大计、国家大事。在生态优先、绿色发展理念引领下,深入理解生态系统服务间关系对于优化国土空间开发保护、实现自然资源可持续管理具有重要意义。本文基于多源数据评估了雄安新区四种生态系统服务,分析了生态系统服务间关系,并利用自组织映射特征网络划分了生态系统服务簇,以期为新区统筹权衡规划建设提供科学依据。研究结果表明：雄安新区生物多样性维持服务供给总体呈从东北向西南递增;食物供给服务在安新县与容城县供给较高,在雄县供给较低;产水服务供给以西南部地区较高,东北部地区较低;娱乐服务供给则以中北部地区较高,西南部地区较低。不同类型生态系统服务间多为协同关系,少为权衡关系。识别出四种生态系统服务簇,不同服务簇的主要土地利用类型及服务供给特点均存在差异,食物供给簇以旱地为主,主要提供食物供给服务;文化娱乐簇也以旱地为主,主要提供娱乐服务;生态保育簇以水域、旱地和林地为主,主要提供生物多样性维持服务;城镇生活簇则以建设用地为主,也包括少部分水田,主要以产水服务较高。根据不同生态系统服务供给间关系特征,为新区合理确定土地利用变更时序与位置以及促进多重生态系统服务可持续供给提出了建议。  相似文献   

加强矿业供给侧结构性改革的初步思考     

张福良  季洪伟 《地质论评》2016,62(S1):143-144

当前我国正处经济增速减缓的新常态,供给侧结构性改革应运而生。我国乃至世界的矿业更是处于发展的严冬之季,产能严重过剩,大宗商品价格持续走低。在当前形势下,我们要用新常态眼光看待矿业未来发展之路,因地制宜,着力加强供给侧改革,刻不容缓。  相似文献   

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Zhaozhi  JIANG Guangyu  WANG Xianwei  ZHANG Jianfeng 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(4):1370-1417

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.  相似文献   

水库群供调水系统实时调度研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙万光  李成振  姜彪  刘盈斐 《水科学进展》2016,27(1):128-138

以大连市复杂水库群供、调水系统为背景,在对系统特性分析的基础上,提出了系统实时调度框架及二层耦合结构模式,设计了以"总量控制、耦合嵌套、多维决策、滚动修正"为核心的实时调度流程。在径流预报方面,提出了基于超越概率的水库群供、调水系统长期入库径流预报方法,结合中期GFS(Global Forecasting System)数值预报技术对不同时段入库径流进行滚动预报。在调度模型方面,采用基于动态规划的建模求解新方法和常规调度方法,为调度决策提供参考。实例研究表明,建立的实时调度系统实现了滚动预报和滚动调度,具备了实时性;实现了宏观总控与局部调整相结合的调度目标,具备了调度决策不同时间尺度耦合嵌套特性,证明了系统的适用性。研究成果对于同类系统实时调度具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新特征与依据——以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例     

张光辉  李卓  严明疆  王茜  王威 《地球学报》2016,37(5):637-644

针对冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新性问题,以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例,采用相同开采强度下地下热水位降幅异常变化的识别方法,通过2000年以来该地下热水位年际及月际降幅与开采量和上游山区年降水量之间响应变化特征研究,结果表明:(1)冀中平原辛集地区馆陶组地下热水资源具有一定的可更新能力,与上游山区年降水量变化相关,还与地下水位埋深、当年开采引起的水位降幅大小和开采疏干层位砾粗砂岩及细砂岩占比状况有关;(2)辛集地区馆陶组地下热水大规模开采,是该地下水系统获得上游区侧向流入补给的必要条件,属于开采激发型补给,更新补给的资源数量有限;(3)从2000年以来该区地下热水水位动态变化趋势来看,目前该区地下热水资源已处于超采状态,需要压采或人工回灌增大补给,否则难以可持续开发利用。  相似文献   

Decoding the Development Strategy of a Major Retailer: Wal-Mart's Expansion in the United States     

Murray D. Rice  Anthony Ostrander  Chetan Tiwari 《The Professional geographer》2016,68(4):640-649

This research aims to provide insight regarding Wal-Mart's retail development strategy in its expansion across the continental United States. The study examines store location patterns and relationships between Wal-Mart's store and distribution center locations and markets. The study shows that, although radial expansion is broadly characteristic of the dense store patterns that have been well established for Wal-Mart at the national level, expansion patterns at the regional level are consistent with a selective process based on factors other than store density. These results provide a new perspective on Wal-Mart's expansion, providing insights of value to retail practitioners and local government.  相似文献