Drought forecasting: Methodological topics from a systems perspective     

R. Krzysztofowicz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(4):267-279

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Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators     

D. -J. Seo  J. A. Smith 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):17-29

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.  相似文献   

Binomial model on seismic risk analysis     

王健  时振梁 《地震学报(英文版)》1994,(Z1)

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Probabilistic Assessment of Temperature in the Euganean Geothermal Area (Veneto Region, NE Italy)     

P. Fabbri 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(6):745-760

In the geothermal Euganean area (Veneto region, NE Italy) water temperatures range from 60 to 86°C. The aquifer considered is rocky and the production wells in this study have a depth ranging from 300 to 500 m. For exploitation purposes, it is important to identify zones with a high probability that the temperature is more than 80°C and zones with a high probability that the temperature is less than 70°C. First, variographic analysis was conducted from 186 temperature data of thermal ground waters. This analysis gave results that are consistent with the main regional tectonic structure, the NW-SE trending Schio-Vicenza fault system. Then indicator variograms of the second, fifth, and eighth decile were compared to identify the spatial continuity at different thresholds. The unacceptability of a multigaussian hypothesis of the random function and the necessity to know the cumulative distribution function in any location, suggested the use of a nonparametric geostatistical procedure such as indicator kriging. Thus, indicator variograms at the cutoffs of 65, 70, 73, 75, 78, 80, 82, and 84°C were analyzed, fitted, and used during the indicator kriging procedure. Finally, probability maps were derived from postprocessing indicator kriging results. These maps identified scarcely exploited areas with a high probability of the temperature being higher than 80°C, between 70 and 80°C and areas with high probability of the temperature being below 70°C.  相似文献   

基于未确知信息的环状河网水质数学模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

汪守东  沈永明  姜恒志 《水科学进展》2007,18(6):871-878

以圣维南方程组、对流扩散方程以及未确知信息理论为基础,建立了环状河网一维水动力与未确知水质数学模型。采用Preissman四点隐格式法对圣维南方程组进行离散和采用显式差分对对流扩散方程进行离散,对河网水动力与水质分别进行了合理的编码,并考虑了泵闸等控制工程、降雨径流的影响,采用河网的三级解法编制河网非恒定流的计算程序求解各断面的水位Z和流量Q,实现了水动力和水质两模块之间的数据连接,且对微分形式的水质模型运用未确知数学理论进行了含有两个未确知参数的水质计算,从而不仅能获得污染物浓度区间值,还能得到相应的可信度。实例研究表明,建立的河网水动力模型和未确知信息的水质模型是可靠的,可以用于河网水质治理工程的数值模拟研究和水环境评估。  相似文献   

火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中银含量的测量不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王巧玲 于明朱明达  耿刚强宁国东 《岩矿测试》2007,26(6):477-480

采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》，以火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中的银含量为例，对测量结果进行不确定度评定。分析了不确定度的重要来源，包括称样质量、标准工作溶液、工作曲线拟合、试液定容体积及测量重复性等引入的不确定度分量组成。对各不确定度分量进行分析计算，求得标准不确定度为1．56，扩展不确定度为3．12。  相似文献   

Utility Efficient Frontier: An Application in the Oil and Gas Industry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mansoor Hamood Al-Harthy 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(4):305-312

Current practice shows that the use of portfolio and utility theory is very low among petroleum companies. This article advocates the use of both portfolio theory and utility theory as decision-making tools to improve performance of oil and gas companies. We introduce a model that can be practically used and applied in the oil and gas industry. This model generates an optimized, efficient portfolio and, at the same time, enables the decision maker to incorporate his risk attitude and policy. This can only be done by combining both the portfolio theory and utility theory through an approach called the utility mean-variance model. A typical oil portfolio optimization problem is investigated by applying both portfolio and utility theories. Through the utility mean-variance model, an efficient frontier that captures decision maker risk attitude is achieved.  相似文献   

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Tadashi Annaka  Kenji Satake  Tsutomu Sakakiyama  Ken Yanagisawa  Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):577-592

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.  相似文献   

Robust H∞ control for aseismic structures with uncertainties in model parameters     

宋刚  林家浩  赵岩 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2007,6(4):409-416

This paper presents a robust H∞ output feedback control approach for structural systems with uncertainties in model parameters by using available acceleration measurements and proposes conditions for the existence of such a robust output feedback controller. The uncertainties of structural stiffness, damping and mass parameters are assumed to be norm-bounded. The proposed control approach is formulated within the framework of linear matrix inequalities, for which existing convex optimization techniques, such as the LMI toolbox in MATLAB, can be used effectively and conveniently. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed robust H∞ strategy, a six-story building was subjected both to the 1940 El Centro earthquake record and to a suddenly applied Kanai-Tajimi filtered white noise random excitation. The results show that the proposed robust H∞ controller provides satisfactory results with or without variation of the structural stiffness, damping and mass parameters.  相似文献   

光电测距仪测距标准差校准结果的不确定度评定     

陈士连  朱红燕  陈益茂  高明 《测绘学报》2002,31(Z1):118-122

介绍光电测距仪的测距标准差计量校准方法并对校准结果的不确定度进行了评定,给出了测距仪的测距标准差校准结果的表示形式和20台测距仪的测距标准差校准结果及测量不确定度.  相似文献