广西沿海超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估必要性     

农成万  何如  邝良俊  张幸  李斌喜 《气象研究与应用》2014,(1):71-73,87,I0002

通过列举国内外超高层建筑遭受气象灾害的案例,结合广西气象灾害风险区划资料,分析大风、台风、龙卷风、暴雨、雷电（雷击）、强降温等灾害与沿海超高层建筑的关系,以及可能造成的影响和潜在的风险,论述了超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估可实现最大安全与最小投资的统一.以期为广西沿海开展“超高层建筑气象灾害风险评估”工作提供理由和依据.  相似文献   

The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.  相似文献   

Land use changes and sea level rise may induce a “coastal squeeze” on the coasts of Veracruz,Mexico     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

“Coastal squeeze” refers to the process in which coastal ecosystems are threatened by the combination of sea level rise (SLR) and the presence of a physical barrier, such as human infrastructure. This situation prevents the landward migration of ecosystems and species, as the coastline moves inland, and they are thus exposed to local extinction. Our objective was to explore coastal squeeze in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, through the study of urban expansion on the coast, an analysis of coastline geodynamics, and a projection of the potential effect of SLR on the distribution of two focal plant species which are endemic to the coastal dunes of Mexico. Urbanization of the coast, parallel to the shoreline, has been taking place increasingly rapidly, displacing ecosystems, both natural (mangroves, beaches and coastal dunes) and transformed (cultivated fields and pastures). Taking into consideration the geodynamic trends of the coastline and an analysis of its historical evolution, it can be seen that the coastal strip is eroding at rates that vary from slow to very rapid. Finally, the results of ecological niche modeling indicate that, under scenarios of SLR, the potential distribution of the two focal species would diminish: Chamaecrista chamaecristoides by 6–28%, and Palafoxia lindenii by 2–15%. These results indicate that “coastal squeeze” is likely in the study area, and that measures to limit or mitigate this process are required. Such measures could include urbanization programs which limit development to appropriate zones, the restoration and rehabilitation of deteriorated ecosystems and the conservation of those ecosystems which are still healthy.  相似文献   

The impact of highly permeable layer on hydraulic system in a coastal aquifer     

Kue‐Young Kim  Weon Shik Han  Eungyu Park 《水文研究》2013,27(22):3128-3138

This study is aimed to understand the hydraulic mechanism of coastal aquifer systems that include highly permeable layers (HPLs). These hydrologic conditions can be found in many volcanic islands that are composed of a series of lava flows discharged into sea or other standing body of water. In the first part, we developed a numerical model based on the geologic and hydrologic data obtained from the eastern Jeju Island, Korea, of which the aquifer contains clinker and hyaloclastite layers. The simulation results reproduced spatial location of fresh‐saline water interface, especially the abrupt decline of interface at the inland part and the thickness variation of transition zone along the cross‐section observed at the eastern Jeju coastal aquifer. We were able to find out that these phenomena are strongly related to the presence of the HPL. In the second part, quantitative analyses were conducted with the use of hypothetical models in order to understand the dynamic characteristics of coastal system that includes HPLs. A series of sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the effect of the horizontal length and vertical depth of HPL on the spatial location of the interface toe and the configuration of transition zone. Various case studies have shown that the seawater intruded into the inland more as the horizontal length of HPL was increased and its vertical depth was decreased. In other simulations including two HPLs, the vertical distance between these two HPLs primarily controlled the flow regime, flux variations, and the configuration of the transition zone. Finally, we performed simulations to evaluate the effect of a rising sea‐level. This study provides more understanding of how the presence of HPL controls the seawater intrusion processes, and the spatial configurations of fresh‐saline water interface at coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Atoll island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hiroya Yamano  Hajime Kayanne  Toru Yamaguchi  Yuji Kuwahara  Hiromune Yokoki  Hiroto Shimazaki  Masashi Chikamori   《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):407-416

The reef islands formed on coral atolls are generally small, low, and flat, with elevations of only a few meters. These islands are thus highly vulnerable to elevated sea levels caused by extreme events and global warming. Such vulnerability was recently evidenced at Fongafale Islet, the capital of Tuvalu, when it flooded during accelerated spring high tides possibly related to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many factors, not only environmental but also economic and social, determine the vulnerability of an island to sea level rise. In this study, we used data spanning 108 yrs to reconstruct changes in topography, land use/cover, population, and the distribution of buildings at Fongafale Islet. The results indicate that the vulnerability of Fongafale Islet relates to its original landform characteristics: the central part of the island was formerly dominated by swampland that flooded at high tides. Fongafale Islet experienced greater population in-migration and centralization beginning in the 1970s following the independence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Migrants were also responding to declines in overseas mining operations and limited options for paid employment. As the population increased, construction took place in vulnerable swampland areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that examinations of global environmental issues should focus on characteristics specific to the region of interest. These characteristics should be specified using historical reconstruction to understand and address the vulnerability of an area to global environmental changes.  相似文献   

Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

A.S. Unnikrishnan  D. Shankar 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):301-307

Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr^− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr^− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr^− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  相似文献   

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS     

曾昭璇  刘南威  胡男  丘世钧  黄山  李平日  方国祥  黄光庆  祝功武 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1993,3(1):44-50

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.  相似文献   

压实作用下广西典型红树林区沉积速率及海平面上升对红树林迁移效应的制衡   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

夏鹏  孟宪伟  丰爱平  李珍  杨刚 《沉积学报》2015,33(3):551-560

气候变化造成的海平面上升是迫使红树林向陆迁移的主要驱动力, 而其自身通过捕沙促淤不同程度的减缓了海平面上升速率的影响。基于广西典型红树林区8根短柱的210Pb测年和含水率分析, 以考虑/未考虑沉积物压实作用为研究情景, 通过对比研究红树林区潮滩地表高程抬升速率和相对海平面上升速率的大小关系, 揭示当前海平面上升对广西红树林向陆/向海迁移的驱动机制。研究发现:未考虑压实作用下的沉积速率约是考虑压实作用下沉积速率的1.00~1.34倍(平均1.12倍), 压实作用明显;压实沉积速率介于0.16~0.78 cm/a, 其底层压实沉积速率与潮滩地表高程抬升速率相等。压实作用下, 英罗湾和丹兜海红树林区的地表高程抬升速率小于相对海平面上升速率;与未考虑压实作用得到的结论相悖。由于广西红树林海岸大都建有防波堤, 限制了红树林向陆的迁移;表明英罗湾和丹兜海的红树林正面临海平面上升的威胁。压实作用校正与否对地表高程抬升速率与相对海平面上升速率相当的区域尤为重要。  相似文献   

鲁西隆起北侧博兴洼陷新生界碎屑重矿物的物源示踪分析     

许承武  李忠  韩登林 《岩石学报》2015,31(9):2737-2744

利用碎屑重矿物对鲁西隆起北侧博兴洼陷的新生界沉积岩开展了碎屑物源示踪分析。通过研究区重矿物聚类分析、源区岩石类型分析并结合薄片和探针分析结果,发现研究区源岩类型多样,既有以绿帘石为代表的亲鲁西变质岩,也有以富含石榴石为代表的亲苏鲁变质岩,同时也有火山岩和沉积岩;从古近纪沙河街组三段沉积期开始源岩中亲苏鲁变质岩不断减少,亲鲁西变质岩和基性火成岩不断增加,至新近纪明化镇组沉积期洼陷内几乎无富含石榴石类型源岩,表明博兴洼陷自古近纪以来一直存在来自鲁西、胶东(超高压带)的物源记录,从古近纪沙河街组三段沉积期开始,胶东的物源供给逐渐减少,而到明化镇组沉积时由于鲁西的快速隆升,胶东与博兴洼陷的物源联系被切断。  相似文献   

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Zhang Hua  Han Guangxuan  Wang De  Xue Qinzhao  LuoYongming 《地球科学进展》2015,30(9):996-1005

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。  相似文献