基于STIRPAT模型的内蒙古沙漠化地区环境压力分析     

樊胜岳  刘文文  周宁 《中国沙漠》2019,39(3):117-125

实现经济与生态环境的协调发展，已经成为当前治理沙漠化的巨大挑战。如何定量分析人类活动和自然条件对环境的影响，是当前环境经济学界研究的热点问题。以内蒙古自治区71个沙漠化县为研究对象，以1986—2010年为研究区间做面板空间计量实证分析。选取了人口、富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水作为环境基础指标构建STIRPAT模型，从环境压力内在驱动角度定量分析不同的自然因素和人为因素对沙漠化地区环境的综合影响。结果表明：在观测数据范围内，富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水是内蒙古自治区环境压力的主要驱动因素；富裕度每增加1%，环境压力显著增加0.096%；技术水平每变化1%，将引起环境压力相应发生0.084%的变化；风速和降水每变动1%分别使得沙漠地区环境压力显著地增加0.640%和减少0.216%。  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2011 percent impervious cover for selected USA metropolitan areas     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

The emergence of high-resolution land cover data has created the opportunity to assess the accuracy of impervious cover (IC) provided by the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). We assessed the accuracy of the 900 m² NLCD2011 %IC for 18 metropolitan areas throughout the conterminous United States using reference data from 1 m² land cover data developed as part of the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s EnviroAtlas project. Agreement was assessed from two perspectives: 1) sensitivity to the size of the assessment unit used for the comparison, and 2) utility of NLCD %IC to serve as a proxy for high-resolution IC. The former perspective was considered because statistical relationships can be sensitive to assessment unit size and shape, and the latter perspective was considered because high resolution (reference) %IC data are not available nationwide. The utility of NLCD %IC as a proxy for the high resolution data was assessed for seven lattice (square) cell sizes ranging from 1 ha to 200 ha using four EnviroAtlas IC indicators: 1) %IC per 100 ha (1 km²); 2) %IC by Census block group; 3) %IC within a 15 m (radius) of the riparian zone, and; 4) %IC within a 50 m (radius) of the riparian zone. Agreement was quantified as per assessment unit deviation (NLCD %IC – reference %IC) and summarized as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Deviation (MD) both within and across the 18 metropolitan areas. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (y = reference %IC and x = NLCD %IC) was also used to evaluate the quality of the NLCD %IC data. MAD was ≤ 5% for six of the seven lattice cell sizes. MAD was also ≤ 5% for Census block groups > 100 ha and for both riparian units. These results suggest that uncertainty attributable to the measurement of %IC was no greater than the uncertainty related to the effect of IC on aquatic resources that have been derived from studies of aquatic condition (e.g., benthic fauna) over a range of %IC. Overall, agreement was variable from one metropolitan area to the next. Agreement improved as assessment unit size increased and declined as the level of urbanization (NLCD %IC) increased. NLCD %IC tended to underestimate reference %IC overall, but NLCD %IC was sometimes greater than reference %IC in urbanized settings.  相似文献   

Crack nucleation in saturated porous media     

Luc Dormieux  Eric Lemarchand  Thomas Carlioz  Laurent Jeannin 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(5):553-574

Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation of tsunami bore impact pressure on a perforated seawall     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Catastrophic failures of many tsunami barriers along the affected coasts during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami has prompted extensive investigation into improving and revising design codes for tsunami defence structures. To date, researchers and coastal engineers are investigating to understand the failure mechanisms and to find solutions so that the structures merely remain intact in the extreme event such as tsunami. Thus, the present work is motivated to experimentally study tsunami-induced bore pressures exerted on vertical seawalls; a solid vertical wall and a porous vertical seawall that consisted of a perforated front wall and a solid rear wall. Bores with various heights and velocities were generated by using the dam-break method. A porous seawall with 20% porosity of perforated front wall was used in this study. Bore pressures exerted on the solid rear wall and chamber oscillations that occurred in the experiments were also discussed. The experimental results showed that multiple peak pressures were observed during bore run-up phase in the time series of bore impacts. A predictive equation to estimate the maximum bore pressure on a perforated seawall was developed using multiple regression analysis. The proposed equation was also compared with previous empirical formulas.  相似文献   

Cover crops and precipitation influence soluble reactive phosphorus losses via tile drain discharge in an agricultural watershed     

Matt T. Trentman  Jennifer L. Tank  Todd V. Royer  Shannon L. Speir  Ursula H. Mahl  Lienne R. Sethna 《水文研究》2020,34(23):4446-4458

Subsurface tile drainage speeds water removal from agricultural fields that are historically prone to flooding. While managed drainage systems improve crop yields, they can also contribute tothe eutrophication of downstream ecosystems, as tile-drained systems are conduits for nutrients to adjacent waterways. The changing climate of the Midwestern US has already altered precipitation regimes which will likely continue into the future, with unknown effects on tile drain water and nutrient loss to waterways. Adding vegetative cover (i.e., as winter cover crops) is one approach that can retain water and nutrients on fields to minimize export via tile drains. In the current study, we evaluate the effect of cover crops on tile drain discharge and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads using bi-monthly measurements from 43 unique tile outlets draining fields with or without cover crops in two watersheds in northern Indiana. Using four water years of data (n = 844 measurements), we examined the role of short-term antecedent precipitation conditions and variation in soil biogeochemistry in mediating the effect of cover crops on tile drain flow and SRP loads. We observed significant effects of cover crops on both tile drain discharge and SRP loads, but these results were season and watershed specific. Cover crop effects were identified only in spring, where their presence reduced tile drain discharge in both watersheds and SRP loads in one watershed. Varying effects on SRP loads between watersheds were attributed to different soil biogeochemical characteristics, where soils with lower bioavailable P and higher P sorption capacity were less likely to have a cover crop effect. Antecedent precipitation was important in spring, and cover crop differences were still evident during periods of wet and dry antecedent precipitation conditions. Overall, we show that cover crops have the potential to significantly decrease spring tile drain P export, and these effects are resilient to a wide range of precipitation conditions.  相似文献   

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

喜马拉雅中部甘达基河流域尼泊尔国鸟(棕尾虹雉)生境分布变化     

Raju RAI  Basanta PAUDEL  谷昌军  Narendra Raj KHANAL 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(2):223-231

甘达基河流域(Gandaki River Basin,GRB)是喜马拉雅中部地区的一部分,该地区栖息着许多珍稀的野生动物。由于气候和人类活动的影响,许多珍稀保护物种的生境处于危险之中。本研究基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,运用生物气候、土地覆被和DEM数据,分析各环境要素对棕尾虹雉(Lophophorusimpejanus)的生境适宜性的影响,评估棕尾虹雉现在状况和未来栖息地分布的变化。研究表明,目前棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积约为749 km^2,主要分布在流域北部、东部和西部,尤其是郎塘国家公园、马纳斯卢峰自然保护区和安纳布尔纳峰自然保护区等保护区内。到2050年,棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积将减少至561 km^2,主要在流域北部和西北部(即Chhyo,Tatopani,Humde和Chame地区)。未来环境变化的模拟表明,由于适宜栖息地面积的减少,棕尾虹雉面临的生存风险将增加。  相似文献   

A modified numerical calculation method of collapse pressure for thick-walled offshore pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Considering the shear deformation and thickness stretching of large deformation, a modified numerical calculation method based on the thick shell theory is established to determine the collapse pressure of thick-walled pipes. Verification experiments are conducted on ten pipe specimens in hyperbaric chambers. The good agreement between experimental results and numerical predictions shows the validity and reliability of the new numerical calculation method. Combining DNV specification, the characteristic collapse pressure is also calculated for comparison. The difference between experimental results and DNV calculations illustrates the latter one is much conservative in predicting collapse pressure for thick-walled pipes. Sensitivity analysis on manufacturing imperfections and material properties is investigated for pipes with different D/t ratios. Thick-walled pipes are easier to be affected by initial ovality, residual stress and hardening factor. Based on the stress distribution at the moment of collapse, a novel discovery is found that the collapse pressure of thick-walled pipes is dominated by material plastic behavior.  相似文献   

Body motion in liquid under ice plate with snow cover     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The motion of a submarine in liquid under an ice plate covered with flooded snow is considered. The ice is modelled as an elastic plate and the snow cover is modelled as a viscous layer on the top of the plate. The submarine is modelled as a slender solid of revolution with scale 1:300. The experimental and theoretical study of the influence of the viscous snow layer on deflections of the floating ice plate is conducted. The viscous layer reduces the amplitudes of flexural-gravity waves. The greatest influence of the viscous layer on the plate deflections is achieved for velocities of the submarine, where the waves of maximum amplitude are generated. Theoretical results are in good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the model experiments.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of measurements of bulk snow density and water equivalent of snow cover with snow core samplers: Instrumental bias and variability induced by observers     

J. Ignacio López-Moreno  Leena Leppänen  Bartłomiej Luks  Ladislav Holko  Ghislain Picard  Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado  Esteban Alonso-González  David C. Finger  Ali N. Arslan  Katalin Gillemot  Aynur Sensoy  Arda Sorman  M. Cansaran Ertaş  Steven R. Fassnacht  Charles Fierz  Christoph Marty 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3120-3133

Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler.  相似文献