Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

海南省连片贫困地区农户致贫风险分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

张金萍  宋伟  林丹  余珍鑫  李庭筠  罗邱戈  程叶青 《地理科学》2020,40(4):608-616

农村贫困与减贫是世界性难题,也是中国各级政府高度重视并着力解决的重大民生问题。基于农户及致贫风险的文献梳理,从区位、社会和劳动力3个要素维度构建了农户致贫风险分析的二元Logistic回归模型。采用484户农户问卷调查数据,分析了海南省连片贫困地区农户的致贫风险,提出有效减贫和持续发展对策。研究发现:① 海南连片贫困地区生态环境良好但贫困发生率较高,家庭劳动力较充裕但受教育水平较低,子女教育支出负担重,因病因残致贫比例较高,女性务工人口较多,农户自身脱贫致富的发展动力不足。② 海拔高度200 m以下、男性户主、拥有残疾或患病成员、务工人口比例低、女性务工人员占比高、以及单位劳动力供养学生数高的农户具有更大的致贫风险。③ 研究未发现女性户主、少数民族、低受教育水平户主、大型规模家庭有更高的致贫风险,女性成员比例、抚养比等因素对农户贫困影响较小。激发农户内生动力、大力发展特色化和规模化农业、增加农户就业机会、加强针对农民工、女性务工人员和病残群体的社会保障等减贫政策制定实施是实现脱贫攻坚目标的重要途径。  相似文献   

景电灌区移民对祁连山植被恢复的相对生态价值          下载免费PDF全文

赵建林  康德奎  彭维恩  王建礼  史中兴  陈天顺  董志洋  汪杰  常兆丰 《干旱区地理》2020,43(1):182-189

近些年来，生态系统的服务价值研究已成为生态学以及生态经济学领域中的一个热点问题。祁连山被称为伸进西北干旱区的一座湿岛，在我国“一带一路”建设中占有重要地位。景电灌区兴建以来从祁连山移出了大量农牧民。那么，景电灌区移民对祁连山植被恢复的生态价值如何呢？以景电灌区移民涉及到的祁连山东端景泰、古浪、天祝3县山区为研究区，用价值工程方法对从祁连山区向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草的生态价值做了分析，并与模型因子当量法的计算结果进行了比较。结果表明：祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态价值为37.458 1×10⁸元。其中，退耕还林还草的生态价值为37.438 6×0⁸元，退牧后草场植被盖度增加的生态价值为194.79×104元。计算结果为用COSTANZA和谢高地模型因子当量法计算得的祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态服务价值40.054 0×0⁸元的93.52%。两种方法计算结果祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态价值为景电工程年总成本1.45×0⁸元的25.8~27.6倍。两种计算结果一致表明，景电灌区生态移民对祁连山植被恢复的生态价值十分突出。由此也可以看出，COSTANZA和谢高地模型因子当量法适用于祁连山的生态服务价值分析。  相似文献   

土地利用视角下城市交通事故驱动机理的研究进展     

王成  谢波 《地理科学进展》2020,39(9):1597-1606

城镇化与机动交通的快速发展,引发了城市土地利用与交通系统的重塑,导致城市交通安全问题日益严峻。为了优化土地利用布局并改善交通安全,需要从土地利用视角开展交通事故的驱动机理研究。国内外该方面研究形成了以交通流量和交通速度为主要中介因素联系土地利用与交通事故的经典理论框架,却忽略了源于土地利用并深刻影响交通安全的交通需求因素,导致缺乏“土地利用—交通需求—交通事故”完整路径链的研究。论文通过综述该领域文献,在归纳总结城市交通事故影响因素的基础上,揭示土地利用视角下交通事故的驱动机理并探讨未来研究方向。研究指出,土地利用的多维属性特征对交通事故具有重要影响,土地利用与交通系统的动态匹配关系及其对出行行为的影响是揭示交通事故驱动机理的关键突破口,对于构建交通安全导向的城市土地利用模式具有重要的理论与实践意义。  相似文献   

Geological Control of Fold Structure on Gas Occurrence and Its Implication for Coalbed Gas Outburst: Case Study in the Qinan Coal Mine,Huaibei Coalfield,China     

Zhang  Kaizhong  Wang  Liang  Cheng  Yuanping  Li  Wei  Kan  Jin  Tu  Qingyi  Jiang  Jingyu 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(2):1375-1395

  相似文献   

Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Mining-Induced Fracture Field: A Case Study Using Image Processing in the Shaqu Coal Mine,China     

Cheng  Zhiheng  Liu  Biao  Zou  Quanle  Wang  Xin  Feng  Jicheng  Zhao  Zhiyan  Sun  Fulong 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(3):1601-1615

Natural Resources Research - Mining-induced fracture plays a key role in gas drainage for gas burst-prone underground coal mines, especially for closely multilayered coal seams. The layout and...  相似文献   

Development and evaluation of a storm surge warning system in Taiwan     

Mei-Ying Lin  Wen-Yih Sun  Ming-Da Chiou  Chih-Ying Chen  Hao-Yuan Cheng  Cheng-Hsin Chen 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(8):1025-1049

An operational storm surge forecasting system aimed at providing warning information for storm surges has been developed and evaluated using four typhoon events. The warning system triggered by typhoon forecasts from Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) has been executed with two storm surge forecasting scenarios with and without tides. Three numerical experiments applying different meteorological inputs have been designed to assess the impact of typhoon forcing on storm surges. One uses synthetic wind fields, and the others use realistic wind fields with and without adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation. Local observations from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations and tide gauge stations are used to evaluate the wind fields and storm surges from our numerical experiments. The comparison results show that the accuracy of the storm surge forecast is dominated by the track, the intensity, and the driving flow of a typhoon. When the structure of a typhoon is disturbed by Taiwan’s topography, using meteorological inputs from real wind fields can result in a better typhoon simulation than using inputs from synthetic wind fields. The driving flow also determines the impact of topography on typhoon movement. For quickly moving typhoons, storm forcing from TAPEX is reliable when a typhoon is strong enough to be relatively unaffected by environmental flows; otherwise, storm forcing from a sophisticated typhoon initialization scheme that better simulates the typhoon and environmental flows results in a more accurate prediction of storm surges. Therefore, when a typhoon moves slowly and interacts more with the topography and environmental flows, incorporating realistic wind fields with adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation in the warning system will obtain better predictions for a typhoon and its resultant storm surges.  相似文献   

Study and application of PS-wave pre-stack migration in HTI media and an anisotropic correction method     

Li-Li Yan  Bing-Jie Cheng  Tian-Ji Xu  Ying-Ying Jiang  Zhao-Jun Ma  Jian-Ming Tang 《应用地球物理》2018,15(1):57-68

Anisotropy correction is necessary during the processing of converted PSwave seismic data to achieve accurate structural imaging, reservoir prediction, and fracture detection. To effectively eliminate the adverse effects of S-wave splitting and to improve PSwave imaging quality, we tested methods for pre-stack migration imaging and anisotropic correction of PS-wave data. We based this on the propagation rules of seismic waves in a horizontal transverse isotropy medium, which is a fractured medium model that reflects likely subsurface conditions in the field. We used the radial (R) and transverse (T) components of PS-wave data to separate the fast and slow S-wave components, after which their propagation moveout was effectively extracted. Meanwhile, corrections for the energies and propagation moveouts of the R and T components were implemented using mathematical rotation. The PS-wave imaging quality was distinctly improved, and we demonstrated the reliability of our methods through numerical simulations. Applying our methods to three-dimensional and three-component seismic field data from the Xinchang-Hexingchang region of the Western Sichuan Depression in China, we obtained high-quality seismic imaging with continuous reflection wave groups, distinct structural features, and specific stratigraphic contact relationships. This study provides an effective and reliable approach for data processing that will improve the exploration of complex, hidden lithologic gas reservoirs.  相似文献   

基于模拟退火算法的设计反应谱标定方法     

谭启迪  薄景山  常晁瑜  韩昕  乔峰 《地震工程与工程振动》2020,(1):155-161

反应谱的标定是抗震设计的基础工作之一,模拟退火算法是基于模拟固体退火过程而提出的多参数优化组合方法。本文提出将模拟退火算法应用于设计反应谱的标定,并概述了模拟退火算法的基本原理及特点,介绍了运用MATLAB基于模拟退火算法对反应谱进行标定的过程。检验了将模拟退火算法应用于场地相关谱标定的可行性和合理性,给出了将其应用于工程场地地震安全性评价中设计反应谱标定实例。通过检验和实例分析可以看出,基于模拟退火算法的反应谱标定方法所给出的设计反应谱谱形真实地反映了原地震反应谱的特征,较客观的反映了场地相关反应谱的峰值和周期特征。  相似文献   

Scattering pattern analysis and true-amplitude generalized Radon transform migration for acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry     

Quan Liang  Wei Ouyang  Weijian Mao  Shijun Cheng 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(4):1211-1227

In multi-parameter ray-based anisotropic migration/inversion, it is essential that we have an understanding of the scattering mechanism corresponding to parameter perturbations. Because the complex nonlinearity in the anisotropic inversion problem is intractable, the construction of true-amplitude linearized migration/inversion procedures is needed and important. By using the acoustic medium assumption for transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry and representing the anisotropy with P-wave normal moveout velocity, Thomsen parameter δ and anelliptic parameter η, we formalize the linearized inverse scattering problem for three-dimensional pseudo-acoustic equations. Deploying the single-scattering approximation and an elliptically anisotropic background introduces a new linear integral operator that connects the discontinuous perturbation parameters with the multi-shot/multi-offset P-wave scattered data. We further apply the high-frequency asymptotic Green's function and its derivatives to the integral operator, and then the scattering pattern of each perturbation parameter can be explicitly presented. By naturally establishing a connection to generalized Radon transform, the pseudo-inverse of the integral operator can be solved by the generalized Radon transform inversion. In consideration of the structure of this pseudo-inverse operator, the computational implementation is done pointwise by shooting a fan of rays from the target imaging area towards the acquisition system. Results from two-dimensional numerical tests show amplitude-preserving images with high quality.  相似文献