排序方式： 共有15条查询结果，搜索用时 250 毫秒
1.
Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections* 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Hakan Karaca 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(2):98-106
The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time. 相似文献
2.
Huseyin Ozdemir Alper Unal Tayfun Kindap Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu Zeynep Okay Durmusoglu Maudood Khan Mete Tayanc Mehmet Karaca 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(1-2):31-38
The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly. 相似文献
3.
4.
Outlier trimming and homogeneity checking/correction were performed on the monthly precipitation time series of various lengths from 267 stations in Turkey. Outlier values are usually found during dry summer months, and are concentrated mostly over the southern parts of the country, where the dry period is most pronounced, implying natural extremes rather than wrong measurements. Homogeneity analysis was done using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, on an individual monthly basis, which led to many non‐testable series due to lack of reference stations, especially during summer months. Yet, remaining testable months were usually helpful for the assessment of homogenity, revealing a well distributed set of stations that proved to be homogeneous. There were still a number of stations which either could not be tested efficiently, or were classified as inhomogeneous. Lack of metadata is argued to be largely responsible for inefficient homogeneity testing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The seismic migration patterns can be associated with the existing geophysical setting, the tectonic movements and the geographical... 相似文献
6.
Climate change in Turkey for the last half century 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Climate change and its urban-induced bias in selected Turkish cities is studied with a quality controlled temperature and precipitation data of Turkish stations in the period of 1950–2004. These stations are classified into two groups according to their populations; S1, including rural and suburban stations and S2, including large urban stations. Moving average signals, 365-day, and their digital low pass filtered versions are produced to eliminate the short term fluctuations and examine the possible trends or anomalies in climate data. Furthermore, ‘relative difference’ signals are introduced and applied to temperature and precipitation series to observe the actual local changes in the climate data independent from large-scale effects. Mann–Kendall test statistics are calculated for maximum, minimum, mean temperature and precipitation series and plotted on maps to determine any spatial trend patterns. Signal analysis show a cool period extending from early 1960s till 1993, generally with the lowest temperature values on 1992–1993 owing to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. A last decade significant warming trend is observed in both of the series, S1 and S2, leading to 2000–2002 temperatures to be recorded as maximums in record history. The variability of urban precipitation series is generally larger than the rural ones, suggesting that urban stations can experience more frequent and severe droughts and floods. Though not significant, an increase in the urban precipitation compared to the rural one is also found. Spatial analysis resulted in significant warming in southern and southeastern parts of the country. Particularly, minimum temperature series show significant warming in almost all of the regions indicating the effect of urbanization. Significant decreases of precipitation amounts in the western parts of Turkey, such as Aegean and Trachea regions, are found. On the other hand, some Turkish northern stations show increases in precipitation of which some are significant. 相似文献
7.
The effect of seasonally frozen soil on stochastic response of elevated water tank under random excitation 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Kemal Hacıefendioğlu Murat Emre Kartal Zeki Karaca 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):807-818
Significant seismic events have occurred around the world during winter months in regions where cold temperatures cause ground freezing. Current seismic design practice does not address the effects of cold temperatures in the seasonally frozen areas. Since many elevated water tank structures in cold regions are located in seismic active zones, determining the effect of seasonally frozen soil on the stochastic response of elevated water tank structures subjected to random seismic excitation is an important structural consideration. A three dimensional finite element model, which considers viscous boundaries, was built up to obtain the stochastic seismic behavior of an elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system for frozen soil condition. For this model, the power spectral density function represents random ground motion applied to each support point of the three dimensional finite element model of the elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system. Numerical results show that the soil temperature affects the seismic response of the elevated water tank; whereas the variation in the thickness of the frozen soil causes insignificant changes on the response. In addition, the effect of the variation in water tank’s fullness on the stochastic response of the coupled system is investigated in the study. As a result, the seasonal frost changes the foundation soil stiffness and may impact seismic behavior of the water tank. 相似文献
8.
In Europe, the Wide Wheel abrasion (WWA) test and the B?hme abrasion (BA) test are among the most widely used standard test
methods for determining abrasion resistance of natural stones, the former being the reference test method in EN 14157 Standard.
However, it is stated in the Annex-A (Informative) of EN 14157 Standard that very limited data are available to provide correlations
between these two test methods. To be able to fill this gap, in this study, 25 different natural stones belonging to sedimentary,
metamorphic and igneous groups were tested for their abrasion resistance as well as physico-mechanical properties. Also, for
a better interpretation of abrasion resistance characteristics of the tested stone materials, relationships between abrasion
resistance and physico-mechanical properties were statistically examined. A statistically significant linear correlation (R
2 = 0.85; P value = 0.000) was established between the WWA test and the BA test, which could be used in practice for converting the measured
abrasion resistance values from one testing method to another. It was also found that the correlation between these two test
methods improved significantly (R
2 = 0.93; P value = 0.001) when relatively high-porosity stone materials (porosity ≥1%) were separately evaluated. Both methods of abrasion
resistance employed in the present study showed statistically significant linear correlations with uniaxial compressive strength
and Brazilian tensile strength, the former proving to be a more influencing parameter on resistance to abrasion. Also, from
the point view of representing actual abrasion mechanism of stone materials in practice, the necessity of simulating multi-directional
foot traffic in abrasion testing methods was discussed. In this respect, the reference test method in the EN 14157 Standard
was criticized for not fully meeting this requirement. It was also pointed out that the reference method could have some drawbacks
when applied to coarse-grained granitic rocks having cleavable minerals such as plagioclase and orthoclase feldspars. 相似文献
9.
Hakan Karaca 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(4):633-642
As a relatively recent development, spatial smoothing methods have been introduced to identify seismic patterns. Among the methods developed to model the spatial variation, methods based on utilization of 3-D Gaussian isotropic kernels have a wide reception. The most important question remaining to be answered in the application of these methods is the determination of the optimum kernel bandwidth. At the present, researchers’ efforts to clarify the subject have still not yet finalized, this study aims to provide insightful knowledge for future efforts. In this study, for the region bounded by 27°–33° longitudes and 39°–41° latitudes, where the western section of the famous Northern Anatolian fault lies, smoothing techniques are implemented to determine the optimum smoothing kernel bandwidth for point sources. The influence of the modeling of seismicity through the computation of the optimum smoothing kernel bandwidth is examined. In addition, the sensitivity of each smoothing technique to the seismic patterns, whether densely clustered or scarcely populated, is investigated. In the end, the smoothing method based on optimum neighbor number is identified as highly sensitive to the density of seismicity and seismic clusters, and better in modeling high seismicity compared to the model based on single optimum smoothing distance used for the entire region of interest. 相似文献
10.
For the countries with a developed stone industry the waste generated in the natural stone processing plants pose environmental and economic problems. The utilisation of stone waste in various areas is still under research. In addition, there are only a limited number of studies concerning the use of stone waste obtained from processing plants in the stabilisation of clayey soil. Furthermore, none of the studies in the literature investigated the effect of the characteristics of the stone on the stabilisation of the soil. This is the first study that compares the efficiency of the waste calcitic marble, dolomitic marble and granite powder as additives for the stabilisation of clayey soil. Artificial soil samples were prepared in the laboratory using bentonite and kaolinite. Natural stone waste powder was added to the soil samples at different percentages, and the index and compaction parameters of the stabilised soil were analysed. The results showed that the types of waste powder used in this study, like lime, could be used as stabilisers. As the percentage of additives increased, the plasticity index of the clayey soil decreased and the physical properties of the soil changed from clay to silt. In terms of compaction parameters, the use of all types of natural waste powder in the study resulted in a decrease in the optimum water content and an increase in the maximum dry unit weight. The lowest optimum water content and the highest maximum dry unit weight were obtained from the dolomitic marble powder. 相似文献