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In Arctic alpine regions, glacio‐lacustrine environments respond sensitively to variations in climate conditions, impacting, for example,glacier extent and rendering former ice‐contact lakes into ice distal lakes and vice versa. Lakefloors may hold morphological records of past glacier extent, but remoteness and long periods of ice cover on such lakes make acquisition of high‐resolution bathymetric datasets challenging. Lake Tarfala and Kebnepakte Glacier, located in the Kebnekaise mountains, northern Sweden, comprise a small, dynamic glacio‐lacustrine system holding a climate archive that is not well studied. Using an autonomous surface vessel, a high‐resolution bathymetric dataset for Lake Tarfala was acquired in 2016, from which previously undiscovered end moraines and a potential grounding line feature were identified. For Kebnepakte Glacier, structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry was used to reconstruct its shape from photographs taken in 1910 and 1945. Combining these methods connects the glacial landform record identified at the lakefloor with the centennial‐scale dynamic behaviour of Kebnepakte Glacier. During its maximum 20th century extent, attained c. 1910, Kebnepakte Glacier reached far into Lake Tarfala, but had retreated onto land by 1945, at an average of 7.9 m year–1. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is often used in hydrology to estimate flood quantiles when there is a limitation of at-site recorded flood data. One of the commonly used RFFA methods is the index flood method, which is based on the assumptions that a region satisfies criterion of simple scaling and it can be treated homogeneous. Another RFFA method is quantile regression technique where prediction equations are developed for flood quantiles of interest as function of catchment characteristics. In this paper, the scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales (NSW) State in Australia is investigated. The results indicate that the annual maximum floods in NSW satisfy a simple scaling assumption. The application of a heterogeneity test, however, reveals that NSW flood data set does not satisfy the criteria for a homogeneous region. Finally, a set of prediction equations are developed for NSW using quantile regression technique; an independent test shows that these equations can provide reasonably accurate design flood estimates with a median relative error of about 27%.  相似文献   
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In this paper the seismic response of inelastic structures with unilateral contact is revisited with dimensional analysis. All physically realizable contact types are captured via a non-smooth complementarity approach. The implementation of formal dimensional analysis leads to a condensed presentation of the response and unveils remarkable order even though two different types of non-linearity coexist in the response: the boundary non-linearity of unilateral contact and the inelastic behaviour of the structure itself. It is shown that regardless the intensity and frequency content of the excitation, all response spectra become self-similar when expressed in the appropriate dimensionless terms. The proposed approach hinges upon the notion of the energetic length scale of an excitation which measures the persistence of ground shaking to impose deformation demands. Using the concept of persistency which is defined for excitations with or without distinct pulses, the response is scaled via meaningful novel intensity measures: the dimensionless gap and the dimensionless yield displacement. The study confirms that contact may have a different effect on the response displacements of inelastic structures depending on the spectral region. In adjacent inelastic structures, such as colliding buildings or interacting bridge segments, contact is likely to alter drastically the excitation frequencies’ at which the system is most vulnerable. Finally, it is shown that the proposed approach yields maximum response displacements which correlate very well with the persistency of real earthquakes for a bridge system with considerably complex behaviour.  相似文献   
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Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Palynological and geochemical analyses provide valuable information about modern and past climatic regimes and vegetation. The impact of climate and humans on past vegetation in the semi-arid areas of northwestern Iran has received increased interest in the wake of warming temperatures in the Middle East. Palynological and down-core XRF elemental abundances from a peat core from Lake Neor enabled a reconstruction of vegetational changes of the past 7000 years over the highlands of northwestern Iran. Periods of increased arboreal pollen (AP) types and high (Artemisia + Poaceae)/Chenopodiaceae ratios along with low titanium abundances, high percentages of total organic carbon, more negative δD values, and higher carbon accumulation rates suggest a relatively wet climate. These conditions have persisted during the periods 6700–6200, 5200–4450 and 3200–2200 cal a bp. The overall low AP values, substantial rise of Chenopodiaceae, high Ti abundances and low values of palaeo-redox proxies, are all evidences of a drier climate, as has been reconstructed for the periods 6200–5200 and 4030–3150 cal a bp and the last 2200 years. An important feature of the last centuries is the increase of anthropogenic and pastoral indicator pollen types. Our results may provide basic data to predict future trends in vegetation dynamics under future climate change in western Asia.  相似文献   
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Earthquake‐induced deck‐abutment contact alters the boundary conditions at the deck level and might activate a different mechanical system than the one assumed during the design of the bridge. Occasionally this discrepancy between the assumed and the actual seismic behavior has detrimental consequences, for example, pier damage, deck unseating, or even collapse. Recently, an insightful shake‐table testing of a scaled deck‐abutment bridge model 1 , showed unexpected in‐plane rotations even though the deck was straight. These contact‐induced rotations produced significant residual displacements and damage to the piers and the bents. The present paper utilizes that experimental data to examine the validity and the limitations of a proposed nonsmooth dynamic analysis framework. The results show that the proposed approach satisfactorily captures the planar rigid‐body dynamics of the deck which is characterized by deck‐abutment contact. The analysis brings forward the role of friction on the physical mechanism behind the rotation of the deck, and underlines the importance of considering the frictional contact forces during deck‐abutment interaction even for straight bridges, which typically are neglected. Finally, the paper investigates the sensitivity of the rotation with respect to macroscopic contact parameters (i.e., the coefficient of friction and the coefficient of restitution). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Disaster research and scholarship is now advocating a shift from focusing on the hazard event to processes that generate vulnerability and loss of resilience to disasters. Disaster legislations are among prominent instruments that can highlight the tensions as well as challenges that are being encountered towards this change in focus. Using textual analysis, this paper presents a study that investigated whether five post-2002 disaster legislations have shifted emphasis from the hazard to the vulnerability and resilience paradigms. The five examples illustrate that while there is a slight change, at least in rhetoric, from response to a prevention focus, disaster legislations largely promote a centralised institutional framework, with inadequate resource commitments and limited participation from vulnerable communities. Consequently, while generalisations simply cannot be made without a wider analysis of many more examples from different countries, the five disaster legislations appear to re-emphasise the response focus with less attention on the processes that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. The conclusion is that while the rhetoric has changed, the disaster legislations have not significantly moved from the hazard to vulnerability and resilience focus suggesting that reduction of losses and damages to disasters remains a big challenge  相似文献   
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