Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA     

Carissa A. Raymond  Luke A. McGuire  Ann M. Youberg  Dennis M. Staley  Jason W. Kean 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1349-1360

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Travel times for snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments: Influences of wetlands and forest harvesting,and linkages to stream water quality     

Jason A. Leach  James M. Buttle  Kara L. Webster  Paul W. Hazlett  Dean S. Jeffries 《水文研究》2020,34(10):2154-2175

The time it takes water to travel through a catchment, from when it enters as rain and snow to when it leaves as streamflow, may influence stream water quality and catchment sensitivity to environmental change. Most studies that estimate travel times do so for only a few, often rain-dominated, catchments in a region and use relatively short data records (<10 years). A better understanding of how catchment travel times vary across a landscape may help diagnose inter-catchment differences in water quality and response to environmental change. We used comprehensive and long-term observations from the Turkey Lakes Watershed Study in central Ontario to estimate water travel times for 12 snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments, three of which were impacted by forest harvesting. Chloride, a commonly used water tracer, was measured in streams, rain, snowfall and as dry atmospheric deposition over a 31 year period. These data were used with a lumped convolution integral approach to estimate mean water travel times. We explored relationships between travel times and catchment characteristics such as catchment area, slope angle, flowpath length, runoff ratio and wetland coverage, as well as the impact of harvesting. Travel time estimates were then used to compare differences in stream water quality between catchments. Our results show that mean travel times can be variable for small geographic areas and are related to catchment characteristics, in particular flowpath length and wetland cover. In addition, forest harvesting appeared to decrease mean travel times. Estimated mean travel times had complex relationships with water quality patterns. Results suggest that biogeochemical processes, particularly those present in wetlands, may have a greater influence on water quality than catchment travel times.  相似文献   

Seismic design of floor–wall joints of multi-storey CLT buildings to comply with regularity in elevation     

Davide Trutalli  Luca Pozza 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(1):183-201

The effects of irregularity in elevation of cross-laminated timber buildings have not been fully analysed in literature to provide useful information for the design. In this work, a number of building configurations, regular or irregular in elevation, characterized by a different arrangement per storey of the floor–wall joints have been analysed by means of non-linear dynamic analyses. Comparative results in terms of ratio between the behaviour q-factor of the investigated irregular configurations and that of reference regular ones, show that less dissipative capacity can be expected if the building is irregular due to a disequilibrium among storeys between the actual and the required strength provided by the floor–wall joints. A correlation method to estimate the behaviour q-factor for perfectly regular cross-laminated timber buildings is here presented and extended to in-elevation irregular ones. A new empirical formulation to assess the reliable corrective factor accounting for the irregularity in elevation of cross-laminated timber buildings, according to Eurocode 8 provisions, is also proposed. A final discussion about the implications of in-elevation irregularity on the building design is reported.  相似文献   

Seismic performance and damage incurred by monolithic concrete self-centering rocking walls under the effect of axial stress ratio     

Abouzar Jafari  Mohammad Reza Ghasemi  Habib Akbarzadeh Bengar  Behrooz Hassani 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):831-858

Self-centering rocking walls offer the possibility of minimizing repair costs and downtimes, and also nullify the residual drift after seismic events, thanks to their self-centering properties. In this paper, the effect of axial stress ratio on the behavior of monolithic self-centering rocking walls is investigated by utilizing a developed finite element model. To verify the validity of the finite element model, results and observed damage in the model are compared with those of a full-scale wall test. The axial stress ratio is varied from 0.024 to 0.30 while keeping the other structural parameters constant. For qualitative damage evaluation, the observed damage in the model compared with expected damage states of desired performance levels. In order to evaluate the incurred damage quantitatively, the amount of crushing and damage in the wall is calculated by utilizing several ratios (crushing ratio and damage ratio). Furthermore, seismic response factors (i.e., μ, R and C_d) are calculated for different axial stress ratio values. The obtained results showed that, in order to satisfy the requirements of desired performance levels, the maximum axial stress ratio should be approximately within the range of 0.10–0.15. In addition, the maximum overall damage ratio and crushing ratio are suggested to be less than 5%. For axial stress ratio higher than 0.15, the flag-shaped pattern of hysteresis curves completely disappeared and the variation of displacement ductility is less sensitive to axial stress ratio. Considering the maximum axial stress ratio limited to 0.150, values of 4 and 3.5 are conservatively proposed as a period-independent response modification factor and displacement modification factor of the investigated structural wall, respectively.  相似文献   

The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources     

Laurentiu Danciu  Karin Şeşetyan  Mine Demircioglu  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Roberto Basili  Ata Elias  Shota Adamia  Nino Tsereteli  Hilal Yalçın  Murat Utkucu  Muhammad Asif Khan  Mohammad Sayab  Khaled Hessami  Andrea N. Rovida  Massimiliano Stucchi  Jean-Pierre Burg  Arkady Karakhanian  Hektor Babayan  Mher Avanesyan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Doğan Kalafat  Otar Varazanashvili  Mustafa Erdik  Domenico Giardini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3465-3496

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France     

Christophe Martin  Gabriele Ameri  David Baumont  David Carbon  Gloria Senfaute  Jean-Michel Thiry  Ezio Faccioli  Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.  相似文献   

Assessment of the influence of horizontal diaphragms on the seismic performance of vernacular buildings     

Javier Ortega  Graça Vasconcelos  Hugo Rodrigues  Mariana Correia 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(9):3871-3904

The awareness and preservation of the vernacular heritage and traditional construction techniques and materials is crucial as a key element of cultural identity. However, vernacular architecture located in earthquake prone areas can show a particularly poor seismic performance because of inadequate construction practices resulting from economic restraints and lack of resources. The horizontal diaphragms are one of the key aspects influencing the seismic behavior of buildings because of their major role transmitting the seismic actions to the vertical resisting elements of the structure. This paper presents a numerical parametric study adopted to understand the seismic behavior and resisting mechanisms of vernacular buildings according to the type of horizontal diaphragm considered. Detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analyses were used to perform the thorough parametric study aimed at the evaluation and quantification of the influence of the type of diaphragm in the seismic behavior of vernacular buildings. The reference models used for this study simulate representative rammed earth and stone masonry vernacular buildings commonly found in the South of Portugal. Therefore, this paper also contributes for a better insight of the structural behavior of vernacular earthen and stone masonry typologies under seismic loading.  相似文献   

Experimental study on seismic behavior of Un-Reinforced Masonry (URM) brick walls strengthened with shotcrete     

M. Shabdin  Nader K. A. Attari  M. Zargaran 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(9):3931-3956

In this study, the efficiency of conventional shotcrete technique for strengthening of Un-Reinforced Masonry (URM) walls was shown using an experimental program. In addition, in this program the possible benefit of using anchors for connecting the shotcrete reinforcement layer to the R/C foundation was studied. The experimental program consisted of testing five full scale specimens with two different height-to-length aspect ratios and so different failure modes, under in-plane cyclic loading conditions. Two specimens were tested as reference and others were strengthened on a single-face using shotcrete layer. According to the results, strengthening of URM walls using traditional shotcrete approach created a completely stiff panel and prevented the formation of cracks. The failure mode in both reference and strengthened short length walls was rocking and the shotcrete layer could increase the strength capacity, energy dissipation, and stiffness of wall due to yielding and rupture of steel bars anchored to the foundation. On the other hand, in strengthened long length walls, shotcrete layer increased the shear sliding capacity with no or small increasing in their rocking capacity. Therefore, the failure mode of strengthened walls converted from shear sliding to rocking, even in the specimen with anchorage system. The distributed type of anchorage system could not improve the strength capacity of long length wall. Anchorage system was able to improve the out-of-plane performance of strengthened walls.  相似文献   

Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey     

S. Akkar  T. Azak  T. Çan  U. Çeken  M. B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  T. Y. Duman  M. Erdik  S. Ergintav  F. T. Kadirioğlu  D. Kalafat  Ö. Kale  R. F. Kartal  K. Kekovalı  T. Kılıç  S. Özalp  S. Altuncu Poyraz  K. Şeşetyan  S. Tekin  A. Yakut  M. T. Yılmaz  M. S. Yücemen  Ö. Zülfikar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3197-3228

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.  相似文献   

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum     

Clotaire Michel  Helen Crowley  Pia Hannewald  Pierino Lestuzzi  Donat Fäh 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4639-4660

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.  相似文献