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新疆玛纳斯河流域地下水预测研究 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
根据新疆玛纳斯河流域地下水年径流量的时间序列, 建立了用于描述和分析具有趋势和周期变化特性的地下径流量时间序列的组合模型应用模型对石河子地区地下水年径流量进行了预报, 为该地区水资源合理配置和优化调度提供科学依据 相似文献
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根据新疆玛纳斯河流域地下水年径流量的时间序列,建立了用于描述和分析具有趋势和周期变化特性的地下径流量时间序列的组合模型。应用模型对石河子地区地下水年径流量进行了预报,为该地区水资源合理配置和优化调度提供科学依据。 相似文献
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应用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、流量历时曲线法、双累积曲线法等方法对黄河干流陕县站和河口镇站1919—2010年径流量演变过程进行了分析。结果表明:区域面平均降水量趋势性变化不显著,而上游（河口镇站以上）及中游（河口镇—陕县）年径流量自1985年以来呈显著减少趋势,中游径流量的降幅高于上游。黄河径流量变化具有明显阶段性,上游和中游径流量变化都经历了枯水期—丰水期—枯水期3个时期,现在黄河正处于枯水期。采用双累积曲线法,定量分析降水和人类活动对径流量的影响,上游和中游人类活动对径流量减少的影响程度分别占88.1%和84.9%,水利水保工程、生产生活用水等人类活动是引起黄河径流量减少的主要因素。 相似文献
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黄河源区径流长期演变特征与趋势预测模型研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用小波分析方法对黄河源区径流数据系列的多尺度变化特征、突变点及变化趋势进行了分析.结果表明:黄河源区年径流量具有8a、15a、22a和36a左右的变化周期,其中8a、36a左右的周期变化最为显著.这些周期变化表明,2007年后流量将呈增加的趋势;1928、1982年和1985年是径流变化趋势重要的转变点.在小波分解的基础上,基于BP神经网络模型构建了黄河源区年径流量的长期动态预报模型,利用该模型对未来10a的流量变化进行了预测,并对其预报结果进行了分析. 相似文献
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近50a西北地区年径流变化反映的区域气候差异 总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4
应用我国西部主要河流1951-2000年年径流资料,分析径流变化的区域特征.结果表明:中国西部地区大部分河流径流呈增加趋势,特别是天山南坡逐河流增加最为显著,最高达14%·(10a)-1,其年径流的变化过程相关分析和差积曲线显示,西北地区西部新疆地区与东部的黄河上游年径流变化呈反相变化特征,而西北地区东部河流径流变化则与黄河上游的径流呈正相关关系.西北地区东部黄河年径流和西北太平洋夏季季风指数及其差积曲线表现出一致的变化过程,这表明了黄河上游径流变化主要受东亚季风的影响,同时由于东亚季风与西风在西北地区的相互作用,间接的影响到了新疆地区的径流和降水.这从一个侧面反映的西风带、东亚季风和高原季风的相互作用. 相似文献
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气候变暖情景下黄河上游径流的可能变化 总被引：15，自引：3，他引：12
根据水文气象台站观测资料, 分析了全球变暖情景下黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域温度、降水和径流的变化状况, 并采用假定气候组合对未来数十年黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域的径流变化进行了预测. 结果表明: 黄河上游的温度与全球变暖有着明显的对应关系, 近几十年来, 流域各个地方的温度有不同程度的上升. 降水变化因流域各地所处位置、地势、地形的不同而差异较大, 受温度上升和主要产流区域降水大幅减少的影响, 近10余年来黄河上游的径流量呈持续递减的态势. 在未来几十年, 如果遭遇到气温升幅与降水减幅较大的"暖-干"气候组合时, 流域产水量将有较大的减幅; 当气温变化不大而降水增幅较大时, 流域产水量将有明显的增加, 同时由于冰雪及冻土融水的补给, 此气候情景下黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流量的增幅还将略大于降水量的增幅. 相似文献
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洮河流域径流时间序列一致性及变异研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用有序聚类分析法和非参数检验方法对洮河流域干流控制站近50a(1956～2005年)降水、径流时间序列的变化进行了综合分析,并对径流量序列进行了一致性分析修正,结果表明:降水与径流总体呈下降趋势,径流减少的趋势比降水减少的趋势更加明显,径流减少主要在甘南草原及森林区,降水减少主要在中游及降水高值区,同时,因人类活动的影响,径流序列1986年发生了跳跃变化,后段比前段相对减少了27.5%,经一致性分析修正,得出代表近期下垫面条件下洮河地表水资源量为45.86×108m3. 相似文献
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地表水资源是维系区域生态平衡和促进经济社会发展的制约性要素,河川径流是地表水资源的主要形式,二者的丰枯变化均直接影响流域水资源管理。基于江河实测径流量资料和水资源公报资料,初步分析了1956—2018年中国主要江河实测径流量和中国十大水资源区地表水资源的变化和演变特征。结果表明:①除长江大通站外,中国主要江河代表性水文站实测年径流量均呈现下降趋势。②黄河上游唐乃亥站实测年径流量为非显著性减少趋势,黄河花园口站实测径流量呈现显著性减少趋势;1980—2000年和2001—2018年唐乃亥站实测径流量较基准期1956—1979年分别变化1.8%和-5.9%,而同时期花园口站实测径流量分别减少26.7%和41.0%。③地理分布上,黄河是中国南北地区径流变化的分水岭,黄河以南地区江河径流量为非显著性变化,黄河以北江河径流量为显著性减少趋势,特别是海河流域,实测径流量减少最为显著;21世纪以来,黄河以北河流实测径流量较1980年之前减少幅度超过25%,海河减幅高达80%以上。④1956—2018年全国地表水资源量约为27266亿m 3,较第二次全国水资源评价结果偏少122亿m 3。21世纪以来,海河、黄河、辽河地表水资源明显减少,进一步加重了区域水资源供需矛盾。 相似文献
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摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值问题探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对广珠东线高速公路横沥大桥的试桩及土体的工程地质条件分析,总结出影响摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值的一般问题以及解决问题的方法和措施。 相似文献
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位于华北和扬子两板块碰撞带中的苏鲁榴辉岩形成的温压条件不但是超高压，而且是高温。榴辉岩的PTt轨迹表明其为陆-陆磁撞俯冲带的产物。榴辉岩的区域性围岩花岗质片麻岩为新元古代同碰撞期花岗岩，榴辉岩及其他直接围岩皆呈包体存在于其中，并见新元古代花岗岩呈脉状侵入榴辉岩包体中。区域性围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石中发现有柯石英、绿辉石等包裹体，表明新元古代花岗岩的组成物质也经受过超高压变质作用，且榴辉岩与围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石U-Pb体系同位素年龄基本相同。但新元古代花岗岩所记录的变质作用和变形作用期次（或阶段）却少于榴辉岩。椐上述可得如下推断：超高压榴辉岩与新元古代花岗岩岩浆是同时在碰撞带底部（俯冲板块前部）形成的；榴辉岩的第一折返阶段是由新元古代花岗岩岩浆携带上升的，其第二折返阶段是和新元古代花岗岩一起由逆冲及区域性隆起而上升，遭受剥蚀。 相似文献
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The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Clemente Irigaray Francisco Lamas Rachid El Hamdouni Tomás Fernández José Chacón 《Natural Hazards》2000,21(1):65-81
In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning. 相似文献
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某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。 相似文献
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混凝剂处理钻井废泥浆液的研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过烧杯搅拌实验对混凝剂处理钻井废泥浆液进行研究,从混凝剂适应p H值范围、混凝效果、沉降速度三方面研究比较,找出一种较为理想的混凝剂,并分析了影响混凝剂性能的主要因素,确定了混凝剂的最佳投放剂量。 相似文献
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黄河源区水环境变化及黄河出现冬季断流的原因 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
自1954年有水文观测资料以来，黄河曾在青海省玛多县黄河沿水文站发生过3次断流。本文在分析黄河源区水环境特征及其影响因素的基础上指出，鄂陵湖、扎陵湖的环湖融区调节能力低，当遇到连续干旱、冬季其调节水量不足以维系黄河径流时便会发生断流，这是断流的主因。湖水位降低、开采沙金、过度放牧等自然和人为因素也会对黄河发生断流产生影响。鄂陵湖口附近黄河上修建的水电站开始蓄水，提高了两湖及环湖融区的调节能力，今后黄河冬季出现断流的可能性将大为降低。 相似文献
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Guboglo M. N. 《GeoJournal》1980,4(1):53-58
International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen. 相似文献
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正Artemia cysts are an extremely important component of aquaculture diets.It is well established that the cultivation of fish and shellfish derive substantial health and growth advantages when Artemia are included in the diets of the 相似文献
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利用天山南坡科其喀尔冰川3号观测站2009年全年的气象观测资料,分析研究了科其喀尔冰川表碛区的小气候特征. 结果表明：总辐射和净辐射夏秋季较高、冬春季较低;反射辐射和地表反照率反之. 与其他地区不同,该区主要受积雪物理性质和下垫面状况的影响,冬春季地表反照率日变化表现为由大到小的变化过程,夏秋季表现为倒U型. 温度年变化表现为夏秋季高、冬春季低,最高月均值出现在8月,为9.4℃,最低月均值出现在1月,为-9.6℃. 受山谷风和冰川风的影响,全年的风向以西北风和西北偏西风为主,风向的日变化以11：00为界发生转向. 受降水和冰川消融等的影响,比湿夏秋季月均值较大,冬春季月均值较小. 相似文献
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Climate: Is the past the key to the future? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The climate of the Holocene is not well suited to be the baseline for the climate of the planet. It is an interglacial, a
state typical of only 10% of the past few million years. It is a time of relative sea-level stability after a rapid 130-m
rise from the lowstand during the last glacial maximum. Physical geologic processes are operating at unusual rates and much
of the geochemical system is not in a steady state. During most of the Phanerozoic there have been no continental ice sheets
on the earth, and the planet’s meridional temperature gradient has been much less than it is presently. Major factors influencing
climate are insolation, greenhouse gases, paleogeography, and vegetation; the first two are discussed in this paper. Changes
in the earth’s orbital parameters affect the amount of radiation received from the sun at different latitudes over the course
of the year. During the last climate cycle, the waxing and waning of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets closely
followed the changes in summer insolation at the latitude of the northern hemisphere polar circle. The overall intensity of
insolation in the northern hemisphere is governed by the precession of the earth’s axis of rotation, and the precession and
ellipticity of the earth’s orbit. At the polar circle a meridional minimum of summer insolation becomes alternately more and
less pronounced as the obliquity of the earth’s axis of rotation changes. Feedback processes amplify the insolation signal.
Greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, CH4, CFCs) modulate the insolation-driven climate. The atmospheric content of CO2 during the last glacial maximum was approximately 30% less than during the present interglacial. A variety of possible causes
for this change have been postulated. The present burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement manufacture since the
beginning of the industrial revolution have added CO2 to the atmosphere when its content due to glacial-interglacial variation was already at a maximum. Anthropogenic activity
has increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere to 130% of its previous Holocene level, probably higher than at any time during the past few million
years. During the Late Cretaceous the atmospheric CO2 content was probably about four times that of the present, the level to which it may rise at the end of the next century.
The results of a Campanian (80 Ma) climate simulation suggest that the positive feedback between CO2 and another important greenhouse gas, H2O, raised the earth’s temperature to a level where latent heat transport became much more significant than it is presently,
and operated efficiently at all latitudes. Atmospheric high- and low-pressure systems were as much the result of variations
in the vapor content of the air as of temperature differences. In our present state of knowledge, future climate change is
unpredictable because by adding CO2 to the atmosphere we are forcing the climate toward a “greenhouse” mode when it is accustomed to moving between the glacial–interglacial
“icehouse” states that reflect the waxing and waning of ice sheets. At the same time we are replacing freely transpiring C3
plants with water-conserving C4 plants, producing a global vegetation complex that has no past analog. The past climates of
the earth cannot be used as a direct guide to what may occur in the future. To understand what may happen in the future we
must learn about the first principles of physics and chemistry related to the earth’s system. The fundamental mechanisms of
the climate system are best explored in simulations of the earth’s ancient extreme climates.
Received: 7 November 1996/Accepted: 23 January 1997 相似文献