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1.
左其亭 《水文地质工程地质》1996,(5)
本文提出的灰色预测与周期外延预测相结合的灰色─周期外延组合预测模型，吸取了灰色预测与周期外延预测的优点，可广泛应用于地下水动态预测及其它序列预测。 相似文献
2.
针对经典灰色系统模型的不足，根据灰色系统理论的信息处理原则，在模型中引入遗忘因子，建立了灰色系统沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型，并在求解过程中引入遗忘因子以修正预测结果。模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性，从而降低对预测系统状态的预测误差。实例预测表明，灰色时变参数模型可以将工后总沉降量的预测误差控制在23%以内。误差检验结果显示，预测结果的精度等级较引入遗忘因子修正前有显著的提高。 相似文献
3.
金矿资源量灰色建模预测法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文应用灰色预测的理论，在给出了矿床定性预测－灰色关联分析预测法的基础上，提出了矿床资源量定量预测－灰色ＧＭ（１，１）拓扑预测法。理论分析和预测结果表明，该方法适用于矿床的定量预测，为预测金矿资源提供了科学依据。 相似文献
4.
5.
地下水动态预测的灰色—周期外延组合预测模型 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
左其亭 《水文地质工程地质》1996,23(5):16-19
本文提出的灰色预测与周期外延预测相结合的灰色－周期外延组合预测模型，吸限了灰郄预测与周期外延预测的优点，可广泛应用于地下水动态预测及其它序列预测。 相似文献
6.
改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其在水资源预测中的利用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
冯江浪 《物探化探计算技术》2010,32(1):109-112
这里首先对灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的算法进行改进,并将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫模型结合。通过对灰色系统预测数据的修正,既发挥了灰色系统预测精确的特点,又利用了马尔科夫模型对预测波动性数据准确的优势,对于在任何时间序列上展开的具有一定波动性的数据进行预测,精度更高。 相似文献
7.
径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测模型以预报河流年径流量。针对黑河正义峡水文站60a(1949~2011年)的年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析,确定径流量序列的Hurst指数H和平均循环周期T;然后在一个周期内进行年径流量灰色预测。结果表明:R/S灰色预测结果的精度明显高于直接进行灰色预测的精度。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为河流径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。 相似文献
8.
基坑变形是一个动态的相互依存的过程。在基坑开挖与施工过程中,可用灰色理论GM(1,1)与时间序列AR组合模型预测其变形发展。灰色模型预测发展趋势,时间序列预测其随机部分。根据某时间序列变形观测值分别建立灰色与时间序列预测模型,并随着新数据的加入适时修改模型参数。工程实例研究表明:用组合模型预测变形值,其误差大多数情况下小于5%;在数据较少或变形数据变化较大时,组合模型预测值明显优于单一模型预测值。但在数据较多且变化平稳时,用单一的灰色模型与灰色时间序列组合模型预测误差相差不大。预测步数越多,则预测精度越低。 相似文献
9.
10.
基于GM（1，1）的组合灰色模型预测软基沉降 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以灰色系统理论为基础,建立了沉降预测的组合灰色模型,对一般灰色模型具有的无限增长特性进行了改进和修正。在求解过程中,采用spline插值函数对现场观测沉降数据进行插值变换生成等时距序列,并对沉降预测模型的初值进行了优化选择,以提高预测精度。运用MATLAB语言编制模型计算程序,通过沉降预测实例及后验差法检验模型精度,表明沉降预测的组合灰色模型预测精度较高,具有较强的适用性。 相似文献
11.
位于华北和扬子两板块碰撞带中的苏鲁榴辉岩形成的温压条件不但是超高压，而且是高温。榴辉岩的PTt轨迹表明其为陆-陆磁撞俯冲带的产物。榴辉岩的区域性围岩花岗质片麻岩为新元古代同碰撞期花岗岩，榴辉岩及其他直接围岩皆呈包体存在于其中，并见新元古代花岗岩呈脉状侵入榴辉岩包体中。区域性围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石中发现有柯石英、绿辉石等包裹体，表明新元古代花岗岩的组成物质也经受过超高压变质作用，且榴辉岩与围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石U-Pb体系同位素年龄基本相同。但新元古代花岗岩所记录的变质作用和变形作用期次（或阶段）却少于榴辉岩。椐上述可得如下推断：超高压榴辉岩与新元古代花岗岩岩浆是同时在碰撞带底部（俯冲板块前部）形成的；榴辉岩的第一折返阶段是由新元古代花岗岩岩浆携带上升的，其第二折返阶段是和新元古代花岗岩一起由逆冲及区域性隆起而上升，遭受剥蚀。 相似文献
12.
某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。 相似文献
13.
摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值问题探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对广珠东线高速公路横沥大桥的试桩及土体的工程地质条件分析,总结出影响摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值的一般问题以及解决问题的方法和措施。 相似文献
14.
The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Clemente Irigaray Francisco Lamas Rachid El Hamdouni Tomás Fernández José Chacón 《Natural Hazards》2000,21(1):65-81
In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning. 相似文献
15.
混凝剂处理钻井废泥浆液的研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过烧杯搅拌实验对混凝剂处理钻井废泥浆液进行研究,从混凝剂适应p H值范围、混凝效果、沉降速度三方面研究比较,找出一种较为理想的混凝剂,并分析了影响混凝剂性能的主要因素,确定了混凝剂的最佳投放剂量。 相似文献
16.
黄河源区水环境变化及黄河出现冬季断流的原因 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
自1954年有水文观测资料以来，黄河曾在青海省玛多县黄河沿水文站发生过3次断流。本文在分析黄河源区水环境特征及其影响因素的基础上指出，鄂陵湖、扎陵湖的环湖融区调节能力低，当遇到连续干旱、冬季其调节水量不足以维系黄河径流时便会发生断流，这是断流的主因。湖水位降低、开采沙金、过度放牧等自然和人为因素也会对黄河发生断流产生影响。鄂陵湖口附近黄河上修建的水电站开始蓄水，提高了两湖及环湖融区的调节能力，今后黄河冬季出现断流的可能性将大为降低。 相似文献
17.
Guboglo M. N. 《GeoJournal》1980,4(1):53-58
International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen. 相似文献
18.
排沙漏斗的水沙分离性能取决于其流场特性,为了弄清楚悬板开孔对流场特性的影响,利用粒子图像测速技术和数值模拟方法,分别对悬板溢流段和非溢流段同时均匀布孔、仅在非溢流段布孔和无孔时的排沙漏斗流场特性开展研究。结果表明：①布孔位置不影响涡流性质但影响其强度,均匀布孔时涡流强度最小,不利于水沙离心分离;②无孔和仅在非溢流段布孔时的流场特性有利于泥沙径向输移、沉降和排出,均匀布孔径向速度和二次流流速减小不利于泥沙输移和排出;③仅在悬板非溢流段布孔时悬板表面速度大于其他方案,泥沙不易淤积于悬板。为减少悬板上的泥沙淤积量且同时要保证较高的泥沙截除率时可采用仅在悬板非溢流段布孔的方案优化悬板体型。 相似文献
19.
Encarnación Puga Martim Portugal Antonio Diaz De Federico Giuseppe M. Bargossi Lauro Morten 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(4):253-266
AbstractThe Mesozoic igneous rocks from the External Zones of the Betic Cordilleras extend for some 300 km along the Subbetic Zone. They are poorly differentiated basic rocks which, altogether, correspond to a transitional series containing tholeiitic and sodium-alkaline terms. They crop out as small ophite stocks and dykes intruded into middle- and upper-Triassic rocks, or as submarine flows and sills interlayered with Jurassic materials.Geological and radiometric evidence points to an upper-Triassic-Liassic age for the ophite-generating magmatism, while the fissure volcanism began locally in the early-Liassic and extended throughout the Dogger. It reached its climax in the Tithonian and ceased abruptly in the lowermost Cretaceous.The magmas that generated the two groups of rocks originated within the mantle. During the ascent through a continental crust they were contaminated by deep-crust granitoid rocks and by the assimilation of pelites from the basement. The chemical composition and fractional-crystallization differentiation trends of the ophites belong to the tholeiitic series, while those of the middle-uppermost Jurassic magmas to the sodic-alkaline series. This magmatic evolution may be attributed to a geodynamic change from distensive in the Triassic to transtensive from the middle-Jurassic onwards. 相似文献
20.
Climate: Is the past the key to the future? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The climate of the Holocene is not well suited to be the baseline for the climate of the planet. It is an interglacial, a
state typical of only 10% of the past few million years. It is a time of relative sea-level stability after a rapid 130-m
rise from the lowstand during the last glacial maximum. Physical geologic processes are operating at unusual rates and much
of the geochemical system is not in a steady state. During most of the Phanerozoic there have been no continental ice sheets
on the earth, and the planet’s meridional temperature gradient has been much less than it is presently. Major factors influencing
climate are insolation, greenhouse gases, paleogeography, and vegetation; the first two are discussed in this paper. Changes
in the earth’s orbital parameters affect the amount of radiation received from the sun at different latitudes over the course
of the year. During the last climate cycle, the waxing and waning of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets closely
followed the changes in summer insolation at the latitude of the northern hemisphere polar circle. The overall intensity of
insolation in the northern hemisphere is governed by the precession of the earth’s axis of rotation, and the precession and
ellipticity of the earth’s orbit. At the polar circle a meridional minimum of summer insolation becomes alternately more and
less pronounced as the obliquity of the earth’s axis of rotation changes. Feedback processes amplify the insolation signal.
Greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, CH4, CFCs) modulate the insolation-driven climate. The atmospheric content of CO2 during the last glacial maximum was approximately 30% less than during the present interglacial. A variety of possible causes
for this change have been postulated. The present burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement manufacture since the
beginning of the industrial revolution have added CO2 to the atmosphere when its content due to glacial-interglacial variation was already at a maximum. Anthropogenic activity
has increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere to 130% of its previous Holocene level, probably higher than at any time during the past few million
years. During the Late Cretaceous the atmospheric CO2 content was probably about four times that of the present, the level to which it may rise at the end of the next century.
The results of a Campanian (80 Ma) climate simulation suggest that the positive feedback between CO2 and another important greenhouse gas, H2O, raised the earth’s temperature to a level where latent heat transport became much more significant than it is presently,
and operated efficiently at all latitudes. Atmospheric high- and low-pressure systems were as much the result of variations
in the vapor content of the air as of temperature differences. In our present state of knowledge, future climate change is
unpredictable because by adding CO2 to the atmosphere we are forcing the climate toward a “greenhouse” mode when it is accustomed to moving between the glacial–interglacial
“icehouse” states that reflect the waxing and waning of ice sheets. At the same time we are replacing freely transpiring C3
plants with water-conserving C4 plants, producing a global vegetation complex that has no past analog. The past climates of
the earth cannot be used as a direct guide to what may occur in the future. To understand what may happen in the future we
must learn about the first principles of physics and chemistry related to the earth’s system. The fundamental mechanisms of
the climate system are best explored in simulations of the earth’s ancient extreme climates.
Received: 7 November 1996/Accepted: 23 January 1997 相似文献