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内蒙古农业气象灾害发生规律的探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了1970—2006年内蒙古农业气象灾害中干旱、洪涝、低温和风雹发生规律及发展的趋势,分析表明干旱灾害发生和成灾面积呈直线型上升趋势;洪涝、低温和风雹灾害发生趋势均呈抛物线型,其中洪涝、风雹灾害前期重,后10年灾害较轻,低温前期轻,后期加重。文本在讨论灾害发生、发展的可能原因基础上,提出4点防灾减灾对策:提高防范认识,加强基础设施建设;建立健全农业气象综合观测网络,提供防灾减灾基础数据;加强气象监测预报预警服务,全面开展应急减灾工作;加大科技投入力度,提高科技支撑能力。 相似文献
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海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
沿海地区经济相对繁荣,城市化水平较高,对天气和气候的依赖性强,突发性强对流天气所造成的灾害也会更加严重;同时沿海地区的强对流天气又与海风环流密切相关,因此沿海地区海风雷暴的研究受到了日益广泛的关注,成为了气象学和大气科学中的重要研究对象。在过去的半个多世纪中,海风雷暴的观测和模拟研究取得了大量的研究成果。本文通过对这些研究工作进行回顾和总结,系统地分析了国内外的研究现状,重点讨论了海风雷暴的结构和特征、发展演变过程、触发机制及其预报预警。最后对海风雷暴未来的研究方向进行了探讨,提出了一些有待于研究或需深入研究的问题,以利于今后更好的开展有关海风雷暴的工作,加深对其发生发展规律的认识,提高预报预警水平。 相似文献
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2013年国外重大台风灾害分析与启示 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2013年第30号台风"海燕"是有气象记录以来西北太平洋和中国南海区域登陆强度最强的台风,造成菲律宾至少8 085人死亡或失踪;特强气旋风暴"费林"是1999年以来登陆印度的最强热带气旋,仅造成奥里萨邦38人死亡。分析两个登陆的强台风灾害和造成的损失,探讨当事国应急处置的差距所在,发现"海燕"台风强度超强、菲律宾政府部门应对措施不力、公众防御超级台风灾害意识不强、防御极端灾害能力不足是损失惨重的主要原因。"费林"风暴气象预报准确、印度政府措施有力、灾害管理体系有效是此次台风灾害造成伤亡较轻的主要原因。我国作为台风灾害频发的国家,须继续完善政府主导、部门联动的灾害管理体系,适当提高沿海地区防灾减灾工程标准,同时加强公众防御极端台风灾害的能力,必要时政府仍需采取强制撤离措施,防止重大台风灾害的发生。 相似文献
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雷雨大风与河北电网灾害特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用1983—2008年26年河北省灾情直报数据资料,统计分析大风灾情记录及大风灾害对河北电网设施损坏的时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）7～12级大风是造成电网安全事故的主要灾害性大风;（2）大风灾害致电网安全事故年变化存在显著差异,最多高达43起/年,最少年仅为2起/年;（3）月分布呈显著的单峰曲线变化,6 8月为大风灾害电网安全事故高峰期,占全年大风灾害总次数的83%;（4）空间分布极不均匀,燕山南麓、太行山东麓以及沿海地区是电网灾害事故相对多发区域;（5）通过典型个例分析、成因分析,提出灾害性天气服务对策,为加强河北省电力行业气象服务及防灾减灾提供参考。 相似文献
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在充分肯定江西气象防灾减灾工作的基础上,系统阐述了加强气象防灾减灾工作的重要意义,并就贯彻落实《国务院办公厅关于进一步加强气象灾害防御工作的意见》（国办发（2007]49号）、《江西省人民政府办公厅关于进一步加强气象灾害防御工作的实施意见》（赣府厅发[2007]92号）和全国气象防灾减灾大会精神提出了具体要求。讲话指出,各有关部门要按照国办发49号文件和赣府厅发92号文件的要求,以中尺度区域气象站建设为重点,加强气象灾害监测基础设施建设;以灾害性天气预报为重点,提高气象灾害预报预测水平;以全省突发公共事件预警信息发布平台建设为重点,强化公共气象服务;以建立部门联动机制为重点,建立和完善全省气象灾害应急体系;以中小学校雷电灾害防御工程建设为重点,加强防雷安全工作;以增雨抗旱防雹为重点,大力加强人工影响天气工作。气象防灾减灾范围广,牵涉部门多,是一项复杂的系统性工作。全省各级政府和有关部门要以党的十七大精神为指导,牢固树立科学发展观,切实加强领导,加大资金投入,及时研究气象防灾减灾工作中遇到的突出矛盾和问题,加强部门协作,形成政府组织领导、部门密切配合、全社会共同参与的气象防灾减灾工作新格局,从而为保障江西经济社会又好又快发展,为建设和谐平安江西做出新的贡献。 相似文献
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针对预报系统同化资料的时空分布特征，设计并开展了三组针对不同尺度信息优化的资料同化试验，并使用沿海地区两个测风塔边界层内风场观测数据对模式预报结果进行检验。测风塔观测表明陆地与海上近地层的风场特征截然不同。各组同化试验均能够再现陆地和海上观测风场的主要特征，但海上测风塔的风场预报误差高于陆地测风塔。各组同化试验的预报结果存在较大差异，其中结合新动量控制变量和大尺度约束的试验能够最好地模拟出观测风场的风向和风速分布。进一步表明，沿海地区的近地层风场模拟仍然存在较大的不确定性，需要进一步优化海洋边界层的参数化方案。 相似文献
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《湖北气象》2017,(2)
利用长时序(1961—2012年)的辽宁省夏季逐小时降水观测资料、2008—2013年CMORPH(中国自动站与NOAA气候预报中心morphing技术融合的逐时降水量0.1°网格数据)夏季逐小时降水资料、2000—2012年NCEP再分析资料以及高分辨率中小尺度数值模式WRFV3.3.1,对辽宁暴雨日变化规律进行了统计,并对其形成机理进行了分析和数值试验,结果表明:(1)辽宁省内陆地区基本为午后降水(暴雨)峰值,沿海地区基本为午前降水(暴雨)峰值,内陆平原站点凌晨到午前有次峰现象发生。(2)辽宁降水日变化特征与地理环境关系密切,内陆地区午后降水峰值、沿海地区午前降水峰值的主要原因是大兴安岭—内蒙古高原山区、东北平原、海洋三大地形热力性质的不同而诱发的局地环流日变化。内陆地区午后—夜间降水峰值由山地—平原局地环流上升支诱发,沿海地区凌晨—午前降水峰值现象由海—陆局地环流上升支诱发。(3)对内陆站点做去除大地形试验的数值模拟试验表明,去除大地形对于日累积降水量无明显影响,但对内陆站点的降水日变化有影响,去掉地形后,内陆站点降水峰值发生时间基本均明显提前至正午前后且峰值雨量均明显减小;沿海站点做海洋改陆地数值模拟试验结果表明,海洋改陆地试验对于日累积降水量也无明显影响,但对沿海站点降水日变化有影响,海洋改为陆地后,沿海站点降水峰值由午前变为午后至夜间。数值试验结果进一步说明山地、海洋大地形是诱发辽宁降水日变化规律形成的主要原因。 相似文献
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利用NCEP FNL 1°×1°再分析、地面观测、FY-2G卫星和多普勒天气雷达等资料,对广西防城港沿海地区2020年6月16日出现的特大暴雨过程进行成因分析以及触发维持机制探讨。(1)此次极端降雨过程是一次暖区暴雨过程,降雨过程主要分为两个阶段,具有局地性强,雨势猛,强度大,降水难预报和突发性等特点。(2)暴雨在弱环流背景条件下发生,暴雨区有深厚的水汽和较强的不稳定能量,但天气尺度系统上升运动不深厚强度也不强,因而预报难度大。(3)初始对流在防城港南部近海海面触发,靠近海岸线时迅速发展加强,在防城港沿海地区演变成一个较大尺度的MβCS,其西侧和南侧出现一连串强度45～55 dBZ γ中尺度对流系统,不断经过暴雨区上空,形成列车效应最终导致极端降雨的发生。(4)天气尺度背景为北部湾近海海面出现对流提供了有利条件,低空急流的显著加强触发防城港市近海海面初始对流生成;不同性质下垫面的热力差异和MβCS冷池出流造成防城港沿海地区出现中尺度低压及中尺度辐合线,致使对流在防城港沿海地区增强和长时间维持。(5)高温高湿环境中尺度扰动可能处于暖湿不稳定层结... 相似文献
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9711号台风是世纪性大风暴,台州市海门港出现百年未遇风暴潮。椒江气象台在前10个小时对这次超历史记录的风暴湘位作了准确预报,取得明显社会效益和经济效益。本文通过该次特大风暴潮灾害的分析预报,旨在进一步加强台风暴潮预报和监测工作研究,积极制订防御气象、海洋灾害对策,提高沿海经济区防灾减灾能力。 相似文献
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Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration. 相似文献
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The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o. 相似文献
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Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
16.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
17.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
18.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
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The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
20.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献