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1.
The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source
tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National
Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and
monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped
with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification
of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations
of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow
water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession
at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced
in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta,
is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed
material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program
to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. 相似文献
2.
Kenji Satake Alexander B. Rabinovich Dale Dominey-Howes José C. Borrero 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(9-10):1361-1367
Eighteen papers on past and recent destructive tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World.” Three papers discuss deep-sea (DART) and coastal tsunami observations, warning systems and risk management in the Pacific Ocean. Four papers examine the 1755 Lisbon, 1964 Alaska, 2003 Algeria, and 2011 Haiti tsunamis. Four more papers, as well as some papers in Volume I, report on various aspects of the 2010 Chile tsunami. Two papers present some results of field survey and modelling investigation of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, tsunami. Three papers report on modelling efforts of tsunami generation by earthquake and landslide, and of tsunami propagation. Finally, two papers discuss hazard assessment using a probabilistic approach. 相似文献
3.
In the last 15 years there have been 16 tsunami events recorded at tide stations on the Pacific Coast of Canada. Eleven of these events were from distant sources covering almost all regions of the Pacific, as well as the December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Three tsunamis were generated by local or regional earthquakes and two were meteorological tsunamis. The earliest four events, which occurred in the period 1994–1996, were recorded on analogue recorders; these tsunami records were recently re-examined, digitized and thoroughly analysed. The other 12 tsunami events were recorded using digital high-quality instruments, with 1-min sampling interval, installed on the coast of British Columbia (B.C.) in 1998. All 16 tsunami events were recorded at Tofino on the outer B.C. coast, and some of the tsunamis were recorded at eight or more stations. The tide station at Tofino has been in operation for 100 years and these recent observations add to the dataset of tsunami events compiled previously by S.O. Wigen (1983) for the period 1906–1980. For each of the tsunami records statistical analysis was carried out to determine essential tsunami characteristics for all events (arrival times, maximum amplitudes, frequencies and wave-train structure). The analysis of the records indicated that significant background noise at Langara, a key northern B.C. Tsunami Warning station located near the northern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands, creates serious problems in detecting tsunami waves. That station has now been moved to a new location with better tsunami response. The number of tsunami events observed in the past 15 years also justified re-establishing a tide gauge at Port Alberni, where large tsunami wave amplitudes were measured in March 1964. The two meteorological events are the first ever recorded on the B.C. coast. Also, there have been landslide generated tsunami events which, although not recorded on any coastal tide gauges, demonstrate, along with the recent investigation of a historical catastrophic event, the significant risk that landslide generated tsunami pose to coastal and inland regions of B.C. 相似文献
4.
一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品. 相似文献
5.
Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hermann M. Fritz Catherine M. Petroff Patricio A. Catal��n Rodrigo Cienfuegos Patricio Winckler Nikos Kalligeris Robert Weiss Sergio E. Barrientos Gianina Meneses Carolina Valderas-Bermejo Carl Ebeling Athanassios Papadopoulos Manuel Contreras Rafael Almar Juan Carlos Dominguez Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1989-2010
On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared. 相似文献
6.
Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed. 相似文献
7.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m. 相似文献
8.
9.
Ken Yanagisawa Fumihiko Imamura Tsutomu Sakakiyama Tadashi Annaka Tomoyoshi Takeda Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):565-576
The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation
and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are
examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation
of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular
site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning
of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated
by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in
the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability
as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in
the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the
standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element
tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors
in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical
tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the
site. 相似文献
10.
Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and
across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property
began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were
used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events
of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international
system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became
available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques,
coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings,
but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to
shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more
realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting
will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries
supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed
to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone
for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike
and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under
the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight
lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and
their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations,
and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more
frequent and destructive local tsunamis. 相似文献
11.
Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date. 相似文献
12.
台湾及其邻近地区的海啸 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
台湾位于环太平洋地震带,不仅陆上地震频繁,发生在海外的地震也不少,但其中仅有极少数的海底地震曾引起海啸。然而,由于台湾北部及西部水深极浅,近距离海底地震所引起的海啸有可能会造成重大灾害,对１８６７年发生在台湾基隆附近的海啸曾造成数百人死伤。 相似文献
13.
A. A. Poplavskii D. E. Zolotukhin V. N. Khramushin 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2012,6(1):58-64
A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum
tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the
1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East
coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis
showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times
for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source. 相似文献
14.
香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
地震监测、海啸数值模拟和海平面监测是监测和预报海啸的主要工具。为了有效监测南海北部可能发生的地震海啸,香港天文台（HKO）正在香港筹建一个宽频地震站,同时通过太平洋海啸警报及减灾系统（PTWS）的框架取得美国加州综合地震网（CISN）显示系统的实时地震信息,并通过世界气象组织（WM0）的全球通信系统（GTS）接收南海和西北太平洋的验潮站和海啸浮标数据以监测海面的波动情况。香港天文台通过联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）政府间海洋学委员会（IOC）取得海啸漫滩模式交换计划（TIME）下的海啸数值模式,把香港本地的高分辨率水深和地形数据融合在模式之内,并利用这个模式计算南海多处地区在不同地震情景下的海啸传播,为海啸预报提供重要的参考数据。 相似文献
15.
William Power Xiaoming Wang Emily Lane Philip Gillibrand 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(9-10):1621-1634
Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench. 相似文献
16.
Effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation: Application of ray tracing to tsunamis 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Kenji Satake 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(1):27-36
Ray tracing of seismic surface waves is applied to tsunami propagation to examine bathymetric effect along its propagation path. Computations are made for trans-Pacific tsunamis and for near-field tsunamis in the Japan Sea. For tsunamis across the Pacific Ocean, the comparison to a uniform ocean shows that focusing and defocusing, due to bathymetry, are significant for some combinations of source and receiver. For example, the refraction of rays is predominant at the East Pacific Rise for the tsunami from Chile. The tsunamis in the Japan Sea are strongly affected by the shallow Yamato Rise. The predicted arrival time and amplitude distribution generally agree with the observations from an actual tsunami. Since the computation can be made very quickly, the method is useful for preliminary analysis of tsunami propagation, such as in an operational warning system or in the determination of computational area for finite-difference computation. 相似文献
17.
In this study we analyze water level data from coastal tide gauges and deep-ocean tsunameters to explore the far-field characteristics of two major trans-Pacific tsunamis, the 2010 Chile and the 2011 Japan (Tohoku-oki) events. We focused our attention on data recorded in California (14 stations) and New Zealand (31 stations) as well as on tsunameters situated along the tsunami path and proximal to the study sites. Our analysis considers statistical analyses of the time series to determine arrival times of the tsunami as well as the timing of the largest waves and the highest absolute sea levels. Fourier and wavelet analysis were used to describe the spectral content of the tsunami signal. These characteristics were then compared between the two events to highlight similarities and differences between the signals as a function of the receiving environment and the tsunami source. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of far-field tsunami characteristics in the Pacific Ocean, which has not experienced a major tsunami in nearly 50 years. As such, it systematically describes the tsunami response characteristics of modern maritime infrastructure in New Zealand and California and will be of value for future tsunami hazard assessments in both countries. 相似文献
18.
Tsunami Deposits 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
—Geological investigations of coastal sediments indicate that prehistoric tsunamis can be identified. Their characterisation has altered our knowledge of the past frequency and magnitude of tsunamis for different areas of the world. Yet there have been relatively few geological studies of modern tsunamis with virtually no direct observations of the processes associated with tsunami sediment transport and deposition. This paper discusses these issues and draws on the results of recent research to summarise our current knowledge on the nature of tsunami deposits. 相似文献
19.
Stefano Tinti Filippo Zaniboni Gianluca Pagnoni Anna Manucci 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2143-2167
Stromboli is an Italian volcanic island known for its persistent state of activity, which leads to frequent mass failures and consequently to frequent tsunamis ranging from large (and rare) catastrophic events involving the entire southern Tyrrhenian Sea to smaller events with, however, extremely strong local impact. Most of tsunamigenic landslides occur in the Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) zone, which is a deep scar in the NW flank of the volcano, that was produced by a Holocene massive flank collapse and that is the accumulation area of all the eruptive ejecta from the craters. Shallow-water bathymetric surveys around the island help one to identify submarine canyons and detachment scars giving evidence of mass instabilities and failures that may have produced and might produce tsunamis. The main purpose of this paper is to call attention to tsunami sources in Stromboli that are located outside the SdF area. Further, we do not touch on tsunami scenarios associated with gigantic sector collapses that have repeat times in the order of several thousands of years, but rather concentrate on intermediate size tsunamis, such as the ones that occurred in December 2002. Though we cannot omit tsunamis from the zone of the SdF, the main emphasis is on the elaboration of preliminary scenarios for three more possible source areas around Stromboli, namely Punta Lena Sud, Forgia Vecchia and Strombolicchio, with the aim of purposeful contributing to the evaluation of the hazard associated with such events and to increase the knowledge of potential threats affecting Stromboli and the nearby islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The simulations show that tsunami sources outside of the SdF can produce disastrous effects. As a consequence, we recommend that the monitoring system that is presently operating in Stromboli and that is focussed on the SdF source area be extended in order to cover even the other sources. Moreover, a synoptic analysis of the results from all the considered tsunami scenarios leads to a very interesting relation between the tsunami total energy and the landslide potential energy, that could be used as a very effective tool to evaluate the expected tsunami size from estimates of the landslide size. 相似文献
20.
A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Huimin Helen Jing Huai Zhang David A. Yuen Yaolin Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):129-138
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view. 相似文献