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1.
Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross-section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different tourists and different tourist activities. Globally, OECD tourists prefer a temperature of 21 °C (average of the hottest month of the year) at theirchoice of holiday destination. This indicates that, under a scenario of gradual warming, tourists would spend their holidays in different places than they currently do. The factor and regression analysis suggests that preferences for climates at tourist destinations differ among age and income groups. 相似文献
2.
Climate and Rural Income 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Robert Mendelsohn Alan Basist Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Ariel Dinar 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):101-118
This paper tests whether climate has an impact on per capita rural income. The study finds that total (agricultural and nonagricultural)
income in rural counties and municipios in the US and Brazil are affected by climate. The study demonstrates that this income
effect is due to changes in the net value of agriculture. Regions with better climates for agriculture support higher rural
incomes and regions with poor climates have more rural poverty. The results also suggest that global warming will likely increase
rural poverty. 相似文献
3.
Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on identifying priorities in crop breeding and the conservation of crop genetic resources. We find that for three of Africa's primary cereal crops – maize, millet, and sorghum – expected changes in growing season temperature are considerable and dwarf changes projected for precipitation, with the warmest recent temperatures on average cooler than almost 9 out of 10 expected observations by 2050. For the “novel” crop climates currently unrepresented in each country but likely extant there in 2050, we identify current analogs across the continent. The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050. Of these countries, 75% will have novel climates with analogs in the current climate of at least five other countries, suggesting that international movement of germplasm will be necessary for adaptation. A more troubling set of countries – largely the hotter Sahelian countries – will have climates with few analogs for any crop. Finally, we identify countries, such as Sudan, Cameroon, and Nigeria, whose current crop areas are analogs to many future climates but that are poorly represented in major genebanks – promising locations in which to focus future genetic resource conservation efforts. 相似文献
4.
Johanna Forster Peter W. Schuhmann Iain R. Lake Andrew R. Watkinson Jennifer A. Gill 《Climatic change》2012,114(3-4):745-768
Climate change could have major implications for the global tourism industry if changing environmental conditions alter the attractiveness of holiday destinations. Countries with economies dependent on tourism and with tourism industries reliant on vulnerable natural resources are likely to be particularly at risk. We investigate the implications that climate-induced variations in Atlantic hurricane activity may have for the tourism-dependent Caribbean island of Anguilla. Three hundred tourists completed standardised questionnaires and participated in a choice experiment to determine the influence hurricane risk has on their risk perceptions and decisions regarding holiday preferences. The hurricane season had been considered by 40?% of respondents when making their holiday choice, and the beaches, climate and tranquility of the island were more important than coral reef-based recreational activities in determining holiday destination choice. Choice models demonstrated that respondents were significantly less likely to choose holiday options where hurricane risk is perceived to increase, and significantly more likely to choose options that offered financial compensation for increased risk. However, these choices and decisions varied among demographic groups, with older visitors, Americans, and people who prioritize beach-based activities tending to be most concerned about hurricanes. These groups comprise a significant component of the island’s current clientele, suggesting that perceived increases in hurricane risk may have important implications for the tourism economy of Anguilla and similar destinations. Improved protection of key environmental features (e.g. beaches) may be necessary to enhance resilience to potential future climate impacts. 相似文献
5.
The stakes for alleviating poverty and avoiding unbridled climate change are inextricably linked. Climate change impacts will slow down and may even reverse trends in poverty reduction. The pathways consistent with global warming of no more than 2?°C require strategies for poverty alleviation to make allowance for the constraint of low-carbon development. Existing climate funds have failed to target poverty alleviation as a high-priority strategy for adaptation or as a component of low-carbon development. This article proposes a funding window as part of the Green Climate Fund in order to foster synergies targeting greater satisfaction of basic needs, while making allowance for adaptation and mitigation. This financial mechanism is based on indicators of the satisfaction of basic needs and could respond to the claims of the developing countries, which see alleviating poverty as the first priority in climate negotiations. It defines a country continuum, given that there are poor people everywhere; all developing countries are therefore eligible with a mechanism of this sort.Policy relevanceThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for substantial emissions reductions and adaptation strategies over the next decades to reduce the high risks of severe impacts of climate change over the 21st century. Industrialized countries and developing countries alike recognize the need to mitigate climate change and to adapt to it. But they face many challenges that lead to an ‘emissions gap’ between an emissions level consistent with the 2?°C increase limit and the voluntary pledges that they have made thus far in the climate negotiations (United Nations Environment Programme. (2014). The Emissions Gap Report 2014. A UNEP synthesis report). In this arena, many developing countries underline that their first domestic priority is the satisfaction of basic needs. In the run-up to the next climate negotiations at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris, the proposed poverty-adaptation-mitigation funding window could contribute to alleviate the conflict between development and climate goals in developing countries. In this sense, it could spur developing countries to integrate more ambitious emissions limitations pledges into their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. This could in turn entice industrialized countries to act similarly. In the end, it could pave the way to an ambitious climate agreement in Paris at COP 21. 相似文献
6.
We quantified the impacts of hot summer air temperatures on tourism in the Swiss Alps by analysing the relationship between temperature and overnight stays in 40 Alpine resorts. Several temperature thresholds were tested to detect the relationship between them and summer tourism. Our results reveal significant correlations between the number of nights spent in mountain resorts and hot temperatures at lower elevations. The relationship between hot temperatures and overnight stays is more important in June and to a lesser extent in August than in July. This is probably because holidays and the peak of domestic tourist demand in summer usually take place between the beginning of July and mid-August so that long-term planned stays dominate more during these months compared to June. The alpine resorts nearest to cities are most affected by hot temperatures. This is probably because reactions to hot episodes take place on a short-term basis as heat waves remain relatively rare. Our results suggest that alpine tourist resorts could benefit from hotter temperatures at lower elevations under future climates. Tourists already react on a short-term basis to hot days and spend more nights in hotels in mountain resorts. If heat waves become more regular, it seems likely that tourists will choose to stay at alpine resorts more frequently and for longer periods. 相似文献
7.
Perceptions of climate engineering in the South Pacific,Sub-Saharan Africa,and North American Arctic
Nearly all research on public perceptions of climate engineering has been conducted in wealthy, developed countries. However, understanding perspectives from vulnerable populations is critical to inclusive, democratic debate on both research and governance. This study utilized in-depth interviews to explore the perspectives of vulnerable populations in the South Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the North American Arctic. Interviewees in this study were desperate for solutions to climate change and therefore willing to consider climate engineering. However, their willingness to consider climate engineering could be characterized as both deeply reluctant and highly conditional. Interviewees expressed a number of concerns about potential social and political implications of engineering the climate. They also described conditions that may need to be met to ensure that future climates (engineered or otherwise) are more equitable. 相似文献
8.
We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15–40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates. 相似文献
9.
IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第二工作组（WGII）报告评估了气候变化对人类健康、人类安全、生计与贫困的影响,指出气候变化已经对人类健康和安全造成了负面影响,气候变化、气候变率和极端气候事件给城市和农村的贫困人口增添了额外的负担,与气候变化相关的风险增大。21世纪的气候变化,将继续加剧现有健康问题,增加人类的迁徙,放大冲突的驱动因素的影响,对许多国家的关键基础设施造成不利影响,给小岛国和有很长海岸线国家的领土完整带来风险;整个21世纪,气候变化将减缓经济增长,进一步威胁粮食安全,使减贫更为困难,贫困问题更加突出。 相似文献
10.
Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low-productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10–60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20–50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by significant amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts. 相似文献
11.
海南岛气候舒适度与年内客流量变化的相关性分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用海南岛1981-2010年的气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等气象资料对海南岛旅游气候舒适度进行评价,划分出年内各月旅游气候适宜性等级;结合2006-2010年的旅游客流量统计数据,计算了客流量月指数,在此基础上,用虚拟因子表示非气候气候因素的影响,采用OLS方法分别建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的回归方程,相关分析结果表明：（1）国内旅游客流量全年受到气候舒适度的影响,国内客流量月指数与气候舒适度之间的线性关系显著,弹性系数为1.5％;海外旅游客流量除受到气候舒适度的影响外,节假日赛事活动等非气候因素对其也产生一定的影响,海外客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.1％. 相似文献
12.
We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction
about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid
reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified
in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to
climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact
on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development
Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas
tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation
via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy
could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries
that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption
substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar.
Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning
are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries
has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are
valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate
budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless,
mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success.
Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy
to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. 相似文献
13.
Colin F. Quinn Jennifer F. Howard Chen Chen Joyce E. Coffee Carlos E. Quintela Britt A. Parker 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):146-150
Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.
POLICY RELEVANCE
The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks. 相似文献
14.
Studies on scientific production of climate change knowledge show a geographical bias against the developing and more vulnerable regions of the world. If there is limited knowledge exchange between regions, this may deepen global knowledge divides and, thus, potentially hamper adaptive capacities. Consequently, there is a need to further understand this bias, and, particularly, link it with the exchange of knowledge across borders. We use a world-wide geographical distribution of author affiliations in >15,000 scientific climate change publications to show that (1) research production mainly takes place in richer, institutionally well-developed countries with cooler climates and high climate footprints, and (2) the network of author affiliations is structured into distinct modules of countries with strong common research interests, but with little knowledge exchange between modules. These modules are determined mainly by geographical proximity, common climates, and similar political and economic characteristics. This indicates that political-economic, social and educational-scientific initiatives targeted to enhance local research production and collaborations across geographical-climate module borders may help diminish global knowledge divides. We argue that this could strengthen adaptive capacity in the most vulnerable regions of the world. 相似文献
15.
Syud Amer Ahmed Noah S. Diffenbaugh Thomas W. Hertel David B. Lobell Navin Ramankutty Ana R. Rios Pedram Rowhani 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):46-55
Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change. 相似文献
16.
Shem O. Wandiga Maggie Opondo Daniel Olago Andrew Githeko Faith Githui Michael Marshall Tim Downs Alfred Opere Christopher Oludhe Gilbert O. Ouma Pius Z. Yanda Richard Kangalawe Robert Kabumbuli James Kathuri Eugene Apindi Lydia Olaka Laban Ogallo Paul Mugambi Rehema Sigalla Robinah Nanyunja Timothy Baguma Pius Achola 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):473-497
Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria. 相似文献
17.
There is a need for biologically relevant metrics of climate risk for regional- to global-scale climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Here, we develop, combine, and compare univariate and multivariate forms of several metrics (climate-availability, climate-analog, and two forms of climate-velocity) used to assess the risks arising from future climate change, using downscaled climate projections for Wisconsin (USA) as a case study. Climate-availability and climate-analog analyses show little or no overlap between late-20th-century and projected late-21st-century climates for Wisconsin, and large differences among variables in the distance, bearing, and velocity of projected climate change. There is a strong negative correlation between geographic and climatic distances to closest analogs, creating a tradeoff when climate velocity is assessed using multivariate analog-based approaches: some locations have no good analogs anywhere in future climate space and so analog-based methods pick nearby locations, resulting in low velocity estimates. local velocities projected for Wisconsin are higher than global means. In this region, lake effects, not topographic heterogeneity, exert the strongest influences on regional patterns of climate-velocity and analogs. The multivariate analog-based velocities are correlated with univariate velocity measures that are scaled to local spatial heterogeneity, with the magnitude and correlation analog-based velocities estimates most similar to those of the intervariable mean of climate velocities. Because species are differentially sensitive to particular dimensions of climate change, and vary in their dispersal capacity, the strong differences among climate variables in the spatial direction, distance, and rate of projected climate change provide a powerful mechanism for community restructuring. 相似文献
18.
Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect
of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based
on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other
determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on
the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe
could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North
could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess.
Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence
of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms
of economic impact. 相似文献
19.
Katye E. Altieri Hilton Trollip Tara Caetano Alison Hughes Bruno Merven Harald Winkler 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S78-S91
Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO2e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.Policy relevanceLower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments. 相似文献
20.
The Niger River is the third largest river in the African continent. Nine riparian countries share its basin, which rank all among the world’s thirty poorest. Existing challenges in West Africa, including endemic poverty, inadequate infrastructure and weak adaptive capacity to climate variability, make the region vulnerable to climate change. In this study, a risk-based methodology is introduced and demonstrated for the analysis of climate change impacts on planned infrastructure investments in water resources systems in the Upper and Middle Niger River Basin. The methodology focuses on identifying the vulnerability of the Basin’s socio-economic system to climate change, and subsequently assessing the likelihood of climate risks by using climate information from a multi-run, multi-GCM ensemble of climate projections. System vulnerabilities are analyzed in terms of performance metrics of hydroelectricity production, navigation, dry and rainy season irrigated agriculture, flooding in the Inner Delta of the Niger and the sustenance of environmental flows. The study reveals low to moderate risks in terms of stakeholder-defined threshold levels for most metrics in the 21st Century. The highest risk levels were observed for environmental flow targets. The findings indicate that the range of projected changes in an ensemble of CMIP3 GCM projections imply only relatively low risks of unacceptable climate change impacts on the present large-scale infrastructure investment plan for the Basin. 相似文献